3-18-13

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Bank shots: NBA betting news and notes

Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best –and worst – basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.

For the week of March 10-16.

Hottest ATS

Denver Nuggets (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)

The Nuggets were last week’s best bet (4-0 ATS) and they haven’t disappointed their bettors since. Denver has strung together eight consecutive covers and is riding an 11-game winning streak into Chicago on Monday. The Nuggets follow up with another tough road tilt in Oklahoma City on Tuesday.

Coldest ATS

Phoenix Suns (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS)

The Suns’ inability to play defense is making them a fade down the stretch. Phoenix has dropped four straight, failing to cover in all four contests as underdogs. The Suns have allowed opponents to score an average of 113 points during the skid. Opponents are scorching the Suns from long range, firing at a league-best 40 percent clip. Phoenix hosts Los Angeles (Lakers), Washington, Minnesota and Brooklyn this week.

Best over play

Indiana Pacers (1-3 SU, 4-0 over/under)

Bettors have been banking on the Pacers’ ability to go low all season, but the team dynamic has changed since Danny Granger returned from injury and oddsmakers have been setting the bar low for Indiana down the stretch. The Pacers have played over in five consecutive games, facing an average total of 187 during that span. Indiana hosts Cleveland Monday before hitting the road for Orlando and Milwaukee.

Best under play

Utah Jazz (2-1 SU, 0-3 over/under)

The surging Lakers have bucked Utah from the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference standings. Every game will be treated as a must-min for the Jazz down the stretch and that usually means closer, low-scoring contests. Utah has three tough games against Knicks, Rockets and Spurs this week.

Scouting the schedule:

-After a Sunday showdown with the Hawks, the Brooklyn Nets embark on a season-long eight-game road trip. The Nets have been a good under play (11-18-1 O/U) away from home.

-The Philadelphia 76ers are way out of contention for a playoff spot in the East and things could get ugly for them down the stretch. The Sixers play 12 of their final 17 games away from Wells ***** Center and have a dismal 6-23 SU record on the road (12-17 ATS). Philadelphia also has a tendency to play under totals (8-18-3 O/U) away this season.

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Pucking the trends: This week's best NHL bets

Every week, we update you on who's hot, who's not and situational betting spots in the National Hockey League.

For the week of March 10-16

Hot team

Pittsburgh Penguins (4-0 SU)

The Penguins have ripped off eight consecutive wins heading into Sunday’s clash with the Bruins. Pittsburgh has tightened up defensively over its past four contests, yielding a total of four goals. The Penguins play three games against sub-.500 opponents this week (Capitals, Islanders, Flyers).

Cold team

Florida Panthers (0-4 SU)

The Panthers have dropped six consecutive games and nine of their last 10 to fall to the bottom of the league standings. Florida is allowing 3.7 goals per game and is only killing penalties at a 73.3 percent clip – both league-worst marks in the respective categories. The Panthers embark on a five-game road swing beginning Tuesday in Carolina.

Best over play

San Jose Sharks (1-3 SU, 3-0-1 over/under)

After playing under in eight consecutive games, the Sharks have gone over or earned a push for bettors in their last seven contests (4-0-3 O/U). A major reason for the reversal of trends is that oddsmakers have trimmed San Jose’s totals to five instead of the usual 5.5 for its last eight contests because of its overall tendency to play under (8-15-4 O/U). The Sharks play the second of five consecutive road games in Anaheim Monday.

Best under play

Columbus Blue Jackets (2-2 SU, 0-4 over/under)

Bettors have been taking Columbus to the bank on the puckline (23-6 ATS) and they’ve now gone low in five consecutive games because of the stellar play of G Sergei Bobrovsky. The Russian netminder posted the first two shutouts of his career over the past week and has allowed two goals or less in each of his last six starts. The Blue Jackets have earned points in 10 straight games heading into Tuesday’s battle with Nashville.

Surveying the schedule:

-After a Sunday home date with the Sabres, the Washington Capitals hit the road for seven of their next eight games. The Caps have a brutal 4-8-1 record away from home and a 5-8 O/U mark.

-The St. Louis Blues head north of the border for three clashes with Canadian teams beginning Tuesday. The Blues will make stops in Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary on the trek. St. Louis has played over the total in 10 of its 14 (10-3-1 O/U) road games this season.

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Past week saw some of the biggest covers of the NBA season
By JON CAMPBELL

It largely slipped under the radar, but there were some of the biggest covers for bettors in the NBA over the past week

Two of the three most lopsided covered spreads of the season – and three of the biggest seven covers this campaign - happened in the past seven days (March 8-15).

The Sacramento Kings had the biggest cover of the week and second biggest in the NBA this year on Wednesday when they obliterated the Chicago Bulls 121-79 as 3.5-point underdogs. The 45.5-point cover was second on the season only to Houston’s 48.5-point cover against Utah on Jan. 28 (125-80 as a 3.5-point underdog).

The third biggest cover of the year came last Friday (March 8) when the Portland Blazers trampled Sacramento 136-106 as 11.5-point road dogs.

These games make for some convincing results for bettors, but it doesn’t necessarily mean the same for sportsbooks.

“Nothing big either way on these games,” Jay Rood, Vice President of Race & Sports at MGM properties, told Covers in regards to money won. “If the wise guys thought that these games would produce that kind of cover they would have run the number harder than the 3.5 (on the Sacramento game).”

The biggest cover on a total this season came Nov. 12 when the Utah Jazz and Toronto Raptors went to triple overtime and combined for 273 points. That game went over the total by 80.5 points.

The biggest cover on a total in game that didn’t go to overtime came on Dec. 19 when Golden State traveled to Sacramento. They combined for 258 points to go over the number by 57.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

68 Stats for 68 NCAA Tournament - Bound Teams

It's tourney time, so here's a few betting stats and notes for all 68 teams vying for the national title:

MIDWEST REGION

(1) Louisville - Ranks 224th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage (33.1%)

(2) Duke - Went 18-0 in the regular season with forward Ryan Kelly in the lineup (11-7 ATS) but 9-3 SU and 6-7 ATS without him.

(3) Michigan State - The Spartans play strong, balanced team defense, finishing 35th or better in four key defensive statistical categories - points allowed per game, opponent field goal percentage, opponent 3-point percentage and opponent free throw percentage.

(4) Saint Louis - In seven NCAA tournament appearances, the Billikens have never advanced past their second game.

(5) Oklahoma State - The Cowboys lost in the opening round of their last tournament appearance in 2010.

(6) Memphis - The Tigers are very efficient from the floor, shooting 37.9% from 3-point range and 47.9 from the field. But their 66.7 percent mark from the free-throw line ranks 260th in the country.

(7) Creighton - The Bluejays lead the nation in field goal percentage (.508) and rank fourth in assists per game (17.2).

(8) Colorado State - Have only covered once in their last seven games.

(9) Missouri - The Tigers are the second-best rebounding team in the country at 41.4 per game.

(10) Cincinnati - The Bearcats rank 26th or better in opponent points per game, field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, and free throw percentage.

(11) TBD from play-in game.

(12) Oregon - The Ducks will make their first tournament appearance since 2008, when they were eliminated in the first round as a No. 9 seed.

(13) New Mexico State - Enters the tourney on a five-game winning streak and has now won six straight WAC tournament games by at least nine points, and by an overall average margin of 14.3 points per win.

(14) Valparaiso - The Crusaders are making their first NCAA appearance since 2004. They head into the tourney on a six-game winning streak after breaking the school's single-season record for victories.

(15) Albany - This will be the third tournament appearance for the Great Danes. They also made it to the Big Dance in 2006 and 2007.

(16) TBD from play-in game

SOUTH REGION

(1) Kansas - Kansas has the best field-goal percentage defense in the country -- and much of it comes from its shot-blocking prowess on the interior. The Jayhawks allow teams to shoot only 38.9 percent inside the arc, and only 35.9 percent overall -- both rank first in the country.

(2) Georgetown - The Hoyas rank 297th in experience, making them one of the youngest teams in the field.

(3) Florida - The Gators were once seen as a lock for a No. 1 seed. After going 5-4 on the road during the SEC regular season and losing in the tournament title game, the Gators fell to a No. 3 seed

(4) Michigan - Posted a 19-12 over/under mark during the regular season - the most overs in the Big Ten.

(5) VCU - The Rams lead the country in turnovers forced per game (19.9) and steals per game (11.9).

(6) UCLA - Second leading scorer Jordan Adams (15.3 ppg) is out for the rest of the season. He suffered a broken foot Friday night against Arizona.

(7) San Diego State - The Aztecs have only covered once in their last six games.

(8) UNC - The Tar Heels have advanced to at least the regional final in six of their last seven NCAA tournament appearances, including two national championships in 2009 and 2005.

(9) Villanova - The Wildcats were a Big East-best 19-10-1 ATS this season.

(10) Oklahoma - The Sooners have played over the total in 10 of their last 11 games.

(11) Minnesota - The Gophers have some quality wins over Memphis, Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Indiana this season.

(12) Akron - The Zips overcame the loss of G Alex Abreu to win the MAC tournament, but their 64.5 percent free throw shooting percentage is a major cause for concern.

(13) South Dakota State - The Jackrabbits' sole NCAA appearance came last year, when they earned a trip to the dance but fell in the opener 68-60 to Baylor.

(14) Northwestern State - The Demons score 81 points per game and average 72.9 possession - both are tops in college basketball

(15) Florida Gulf Coast - The Eagles won the Atlantic Sun's automatic bid with an 88-75 victory over top-seeded Mercer on its floor on March 9. It's the first time for FGCU in the tournament in just its second year of eligibility.

(16) Western Kentucky - Went 0-3-1 O/U in the Sun Belt tourney.

WEST REGION

(1) Gonzaga - Has lost in the second round of the NCAA tournament three years in a row.

(2) Ohio State - The Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last five games and 7-1 ATS in their last eight.

(3) New Mexico - The Lobos' January 9th win over UNLV is their only victory against a team in the RPI Top 20.

(4) Kansas State - The Wildcats are 9-2 in games when senior guard Rodney McGruder scores 20+ points.

(5) Wisconsin - The Badgers hold opponents to a 10th-best 55.9 points per game.

(6) Arizona - The last time Arizona posted seven losses in the regular season (2010-11) it advanced to the Elite Eight.

(7) Notre Dame - The Irish have gone over the total in four straight heading into the NCAA Tournament.

(8) Pittsburgh - This will be Pitt's first NCAA appearance since 2011, when they were eliminated by Butler in the round of 32 as a No. 1 seed.

(9) Wichita State - The Shockers were eliminated in the first round in last season's tournament by VCU. They were an at-large entry and a No. 5 seed.

(10) Iowa State - The Cyclones rank fourth in the nation in points per game (79.6).

(11) Belmont - This is the third year in a row that Belmont earned an automatic tournament bid as Atlantic Sun tournament winner. They were eliminated in the first round the previous two seasons.

(12) Ole Miss - Last made an appearance in the 2002 NCAA tournament and lost in the first round.

(13) TBD from play-in game

(14) Harvard - The Crimson are a good rebounding team that shoots well from beyond the arc. Harvard ranks seventh in the nation in 3-point percentage (40.1) and 28th in rebounding (27.2).

(15) Iona - The Gaels won the MAAC tournament last winter and were eliminated in the first round of the 2012 NCAA tournament by Brigham Young.

EAST REGION

(1) Indiana - All five of Indiana's losses this season have come against teams in the RPI Top 50.

(2) Miami - The Hurricanes broke the program’s record for wins in a season, set by the 2001-02 team. Miami easily covered in all three of its ACC tournament games.

(3) Marquette - The Golden Eagles have failed to cover in their last three games.

(4) Syracuse - The last time Syracuse lost in the Big East Conference final (2009) it advanced to the Sweet 16 before losing to No. 2 Oklahoma.

(5) UNLV - The Runnin' Rebels have been ousted in the opening round of the NCAA tournament three years in a row.

(6) Butler - Has been a perennial bracket buster in past tournaments and brings a balanced attack with four players averaging 10 points or more per game.

(7) Illinois - The Illini have the third most Top-25 RPI wins in the country with six.

(8) N.C. State - The Wolfpack shot 49.5 percent from the field – fourth best in the nation – but only 45.3 percent in their nine losses.

(9) Temple - The Owls tangled with some big-name programs in non-conference play, taking on Villanova, Duke, Syracuse and Kansas. Temple was 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in those games.

(10) Colorado - Junior forward Andre Roberson is second in the nation with 11.3 rebounds per game. The Buffaloes were a great under play this season, posting a 7-16 O/U mark.

(11) Bucknell - The Bison failed to cover as big favorites in all three Patriot League playoff games.

(12) Cal - Junior guard Allen Crabbe led the Pac-12 in scoring with 18.7 points per game, but the Golden Bears were a great under play (9-16 O/U) this season.

(13) Montana - The Grizzlies were covering machines on the road this season (10-4-1 ATS).

(14) Davidson - This team is the best in the nation from the charity stripe (80.1 percent).

(15) Pacific - This is Pacific's eighth appearance in the NCAA tournament, and its first since 2006. In the Tigers' last tourney appearance, they lost to Boston College in the first round.

(16) TBD from play-in game

Play -In Teams

North Carolina A&T - The Aggies have an aggressive offense that gets to the foul line on a quarter of their possessions.

Liberty - The Flames dropped their first eight games of the season and amassed 20 losses. A classic example of a team getting hot at the right time to win its respective conference tourney to earn a berth.

Middle Tennessee - The Blue Raiders are headed to the big dance for the first time in 24 years and are 2-6 all-time in the tournament, with the last win coming in the 1989 Southeast Regional appearance.

St. Mary's - The last time the Gaels entered the NCAA tournament with an at-large bid was 2008. They were eliminated in the first round.

La Salle - The Explorers have been on everybody's NCAA radar since one of the greatest weeks in recent school history when they defeated visiting Butler, 54-53 on Jan. 23 and then earned a 69-61 win at VCU on Jan. 26.

Boise State - The Broncos rank 33rd in the nation with 7.8 three pointers made per game and boast an efficient 39.1 three-point percentage.

LIU-Brooklyn - The Blackbirds became the first team to win the Northeast Conference tournament three years in a row and are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.

James Madison - The Dukes are 5-0 ATS in their last five Wednesday and neutral site games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence: NCAA Tourney Early Round Betting Trends

The 2013 NCAA Tournament has arrived and with it a final chance to pad our bankrolls for the season.

To make that shining moment happen, let’s take a look at how teams in this event have fared most recently in the past.

Because it’s my belief that success in handicapping this tournament is tantamount to breaking the action down into rounds, let’s take a look at some of the more relevant and most recent first round betting trends.

Here are notes from the 2013 PLAYBOOK NCAA Tournament guide. Note all results are since 1991 unless noted otherwise. Abbreviations: ATS (Against The Spread), SU (Straight Up).

BRACKET BUSTING

If your dream of designs is completing the perfect bracket (read: picking every winner in every game), enjoy the dream.

You have a better chance of winning 50 Powerball lotteries in your lifetime!

Since expanding to 64 teams in 1985, the odds of randomly picking a perfect bracket sheet are one in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 – or better than one in nine quintillion.

Hint: you can reduce the odds to one in 13.5 billion simply by picking the No. 1 seeds over the No. 16 seeds in the first round and going from there.

Now that you’re feeling better about your chances, concentrate, instead on picking the Final Four teams. That’s 16 to the fourth power, or one in 65,536.

Incidentally, there have been only seven teams seeded lower than No. 6 to reach the Final Four since 1985: 1985 Evansville (8), 1986 LSU (11), 2000 North Carolina (8), 2000 Wisconsin (8), 2006 George Mason (11), 2011 Butler (8) and 2011 VCU (11).

For what it’s worth, Sheldon Jacobson, a computer science professor at the University of Illinois, informs us the most likely Final Four seed combination is 1, 1, 2, 3. The odds against this occurring are about 16 to 1. It has happened three times in the past 28 years. Chalk artists beware: the odds of all four No.1 seeds reaching the Final Four: 47.5 to 1.

And long shot lovers note: the odds of a No. 16 seed reaching the Final Four: 828 to 1. The odds of all four No. 16 seeds reaching the Final Four: about one trillion to 1.

PLANTING THE SEED

• No. 1 seeds are 88-0 SU and 50-37-1 ATS vs. No. 16 seeds, including 16-3 ATS if favored by fewer than 10 points off back-to-back SU wins.

• No. 2 seeds are 82-6 SU and 37-47-4 ATS vs. No. 15 seeds, including 11-25-4 ATS vs. foes off a SU win.

• No. 3 seeds are 78-10 SU and 47-39-2 ATS vs. No. 14 seeds, including 34-1 SU & 26-8-1 ATS off a SU favorite loss.

• No. 4 seeds are 69-19 SU and 49-38-1 ATS vs. No. 13 seeds, including 34-16 ATS as favorites of less than 10 points.

• No. 5 seeds are 57-31 SU and 43-45 ATS vs. No. 12 seeds, including 9-6 SU and 6-9 ATS the last four years. In addition, No. 12 seeds that participated in last year’s event are 21-16 SU against No. 5’s dating back to 1985. Those who did not play in this tournament the previous season are 17-58 SU in this round. FYI: a No. 12 seed has failed to beat a No. 5 seed only twice since 1988.

• No. 6 seeds are 60-28 SU and 47-39-2 ATS vs. No. 11 seeds, including 9-8 SU and 4-12-1 ATS vs. an opponent off an ATS win of more than seven points.

• No. 7 seeds are 49-39 SU and 46-41-1 ATS vs. No. 10 seeds, including 1-7 SU and ATS 1-7 ATS when off back-to-back SU losses.

• No. 8 seeds are 43-45 SU and 42-44-2 ATS vs. No. 9 seeds, including 8-14 SU and 7-15 ATS as favorites of three or more points.

Pete Tiernan of Bracketscience.com reminds us that since 1985, No. 5 and 6 seeds own identical 74-38 SU marks against No. 12 and 11 seeds respectively.

FIRST ROUND NOTES

Conference tournament champs most recent trends in this round (numbers all ATS):

ACC 3-1-1, Atlantic 10, 2-4, Big Ten: 4-2, Big 12: 0-3, Big East: 5-1Big West: 1-6, Colonial: 7-4, C-USA: 1-5, Horizon: 4-1, MAC: 3-0, Missouri Valley: 2-5-1, Mountain West: 4-1-1, Pac-12: 5-2, Sun Belt: 3-2, SEC: 2-3, WAC: 2-6, West Coast: 2-5.ß

Best Team Records (SU) in this round

N Carolina: 10-0, Kansas: 6-0, Pittsburgh: 6-0, Wisconsin: 6-0, UCLA: 5-0, Gonzaga: 5-0, Kansas State: 5-0, NC State: 5-0, Syracuse: 4-0, Duke: 14-1, Cincinnati 10-1.

Worst team records (SU) in this round

New Mexico State: 0-5, Minnesota: 0-4, UNLV: 0-3, San Diego State: 1-4, Temple: 1-4.

Best Team ATS Records in this round

VCU: 5-0, Kansas State: 4-0, NC State: 4-0, St. Louis: 4-0, Western Kentucky: 4-0, Cincinnati: 3-0, Butler: 8-1, Indiana: 5-1.

Worst Team ATS Records in this round

Oregon: 0-7, Temple: 0-5, Minnesota: 0-4, Creighton: 1-5, Notre Dame: 1-5, Villanova: 1-5, Memphis: 1-4.

Best Conference ATS Records in this round

Big Ten: 11-2, Pac-12: 8-2, Horizon: 9-3, MAC: 9-2 dogs, Colonial: 10-5.

Worst Conference ATS Records in this round

CUSA: 1-6, Big West: 1-5, Ivy: 2-11, Big 12: 3-9.

MOST RECENT ‘ANY ROUND’ TRENDS

• Favorites of seven or more points who are 3-0 SU & ATS in their last three games are 14-31 ATS vs. foes off a SU win… and 16-5 ATS vs. an opponent off a SU loss.

• Favorites of 20 or more points with a win percentage of less than .880 are 2-14-1 ATS vs. a foe off a SU win.

• Favorites of more than seven points who scored 100 points or more in their last game are 19-7 ATS, including 14-2 ATS the last sixteen games.

• Underdogs of four or more points playing off a SU post-season tourney win as a dog of six or more points are 14-37-1 ATS since 2000.

If this is not enough to get your blood flowing then you may be seriously in need of a cardiologist. I’ll be back next week with a look at Sweet 16 and Elite Eight round action.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Tournament Odds: Spreads & Totals for Opening Matchups

Louisville, Gonzaga, Kansas and Indiana were all awarded No. 1 seeds in the 2013 NCAA tournament Sunday, with the Big East champion Cardinals (29-5 SU, 20-14-0 ATS) earning the tournament’s top seed overall in the Midwest Regional.

The Bulldogs (31-2 SU, 17-12-2 ATS), winners of the WCC title were awarded the No. 1 seed in the West Regional while the Big 12 champion Jayhawks (29-5 SU, 19-14-0 ATS) earned top billing in the South Regional. The Hoosiers (27-6 SU, 17-14 ATS, who many had as early favorites to be the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA, are at the top of the East Regional after getting upset in the Big Ten tournament.

Here's a look at the opening matchups for the NCAA tournament, beginning with the four play-in games on Tuesday and Wednesday:

Play-in Games

March 19, 2013

Liberty vs. North Carolina A&T (-3, 127)

St. Mary's vs. Middle Tennessee State (+3, 131)

March 20, 2013

La Salle vs. Boise State (Pick, 138)

James Madison vs. LIU Brooklyn (-1, 147)

Round 2

March 21, 2013

No. 9 Missouri vs. No. 8 Colorado State (+2.5, 143)

No. 12 Oregon vs. No. 5 Oklahoma State (-3, 135)

No. 13 New Mexico State vs. No. 4 Saint Louis (-10, 122)

No. 14 Valparaiso vs. No. 3 Michigan State (-9.5, 128)

No. 12 Akron vs. No. 5 VCU (-5.5, 138)

No. 13 South Dakota State vs. No. 4 Michigan (-12, 141)

No. 12 California vs. No. 5 UNLV (-3, 126)

No. 13 Montana vs. No. 4 Syracuse (-15, 130)

No. 11 Bucknell vs. No. 6 Butler (-4.5, 124)

No. 14 Davidson vs. No. 3 Marquette (-3.5, 131)

No. 16 Southern vs. No. 1 Gonzaga (-22, 127)

No. 9 Wichita State vs. No. 8 Pittsburgh (-5.5, 125)

No. 11 Belmont vs. No. 6 Arizona (-5, 142)

No. 14 Harvard vs. No. 3 New Mexico (-11.5, 127)

March 22, 2013

No. 10 Cincinnati vs. No. 7 Creighton (-1.5. 124)

No. 15 Albany vs. No. 2 Duke (-19, 133)

No. 16 Western Kentucky vs. No. 1 Kansas (-20, 135)

No. 9 Villanova vs. No. 8 North Carolina (-4, 137)

No. 11 Minnesota vs. No. 6 UCLA (+3, 133)

No. 14 Northwestern State vs. No. 3 Florida (-20, 136)

No. 10 Oklahoma vs. No. 7 San Diego State (-2, 135)

No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast vs. No. 2 Georgetown (-14, 126)

No. 9 Temple vs. No. 8 North Carolina State (-4, 152)

No. 10 Colorado vs. No. 7 Illinois (Pick, 128)

No. 15 Pacific vs. No. 2 Miami (-13, 127)

No. 10 Iowa State vs. No. 7 Notre Dame (Pick, 142)

No. 15 Iona vs. No. 2 Ohio State (-13, 142)

No. 12 Mississippi vs. No. 5 Wisconsin (-3.5, 128)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CBB Straight - UP, All - Time

1 vs 16 = 112-0

2 vs 15 = 106-6

3 vs 14 = 96-16

4 vs 13 = 88-24

5 vs 12 = 91-41

6 vs 11 = 88-44

7 vs 10 = 81-55

8 vs 9 = 70-66

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Bucks (-9 1/2) Sunday.

Monday it’s the Grizzlies. The deficit is 155 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Tournament Tidbits
Steve Merril

The 2013 NCAA Basketball Tournament is finally here.
Below are some quick facts and thoughts to consider when filling out your office bracket.

#1 Success:

Overall #1 seed has won 5 of last 6 NCAA national championships.

In 2011 when #3 seed Connecticut won the title, it was the first time in history that no #1 or #2 seed made the Final Four.

Teams seeded #1 thru #3 have won 30 of the past 34 NCAA Championships:

#1 seed (19 times 56%)
#2 seed (6 times 18%)
#3 seed (5 times 15%)
#4 or worse (4 times 12%)

First Rounds Dominance:

#1 seeds are 88-0 (100%) SU versus #16 seeds.

#2 seeds are 82-6 (93%) SU versus #15 seeds, however two #15 seeds won last year.

#3 seeds are 78-10 (89%) SU versus #14 seeds

#4 seeds are 69-19 (78%) SU versus #13 seeds

Biggest pointspread upset in NCAA Tournament history occurred last year when #15 Norfolk State (+21.5) defeated #2 Missouri, 86-84.

Odds & Ends:

Georgetown has lost 4 straight times in the first round to a double-digit seeded opponent in the NCAA Tournament. The Hoyas have lost to #10, #14, #11, and #10 seeds (2008-2012).

Oregon is a #12 seed, while UCLA is a #6 seed, despite Ducks being -1.5 favorite and winning the MWC tournament versus the Bruins on a neutral court? A strange seeding which shows how the oddsmakers and the selection committee often have different opinions.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Heat at Celtics: What Bettors Need to Know

Miami Heat at Boston Celtics (+4.5, 189)

Recent whispers out of Boston Celtics camp suggested that they were not very impressed with the Miami Heat's lengthy winning streak. The Celtics now have a chance to end it when the Heat carry a 22-gamer -- tied for the second longest in NBA history -- into Monday's matchup at TD Garden. Miami rolled to a 108-91 win at Toronto on Sunday, matching the 2007-08 Houston Rockets on the all-time list. Amazingly, Boston ended Houston's streak five years ago to the day.

The Heat's last loss came at Indiana on Feb. 1. Five days earlier, Miami lost an epic double-overtime game at Boston on the day that the Celtics learned that All-Star guard Rajon Rondo was out for the season. Including that victory in the latest chapter of a solid rivalry, Boston has gone 16-6, the latest a 105-88 drubbing of Charlotte on Saturday. That win came without star forward Kevin Garnett, who sat with a left adductor strain. Garnett did not practice Sunday and coach Doc Rivers said his emotional leader is 50/50.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN, Sun Sports (Miami) Comcast SportsNet New England (Boston)

ABOUT THE HEAT (51-14): Miami has had a few close calls during the streak but the last two have been cakewalks and the road winning streak is up to 10 games. Dwyane Wade scored 24 points and LeBron James had 22, 12 rebounds and eight assists in the win over the Raptors. The Heat were outrebounded by a remarkable 51-26 margin and were outscored in the paint 62-38. Such statistics matter little when you have shooters and the opponent does not; Miami made 10 of its 22 3-pointers while Toronto was 2-for-20 from long distance. With a win in Boston, the Heat will be 10 shy of matching the 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers for the longest winning streak in NBA history.

ABOUT THE CELTICS (36-29): Garnett's absence mattered little to Boston as it sought, and attained, revenge for an ugly loss in Charlotte on Tuesday. Paul Pierce filled up the stat sheet in just three quarters, collecting 14 points, eight assists, six rebounds and three blocks in 23 minutes as the Celtics won their 11th straight at home. That means there is more than just one streak on the line Monday, and Pierce is confident his team's will remain. "We just feel like this is a building we should never lose in," Pierce said Saturday. "Teams coming to the Garden, they've got to know that this is going to be their toughest game of the year. That's the feeling and the swagger that we're bringing." Boston has also won its last 10 regular-season games at home against Miami.

TRENDS:

* Heat are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.
* Celtics are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
* Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in Heat’s last four road games.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Miami has held a season-high 10 straight opponents under 100 points.

2. The Celtics are 2-0 without Garnett this season, winning by an average of 21 points. He had 24 points and 11 rebounds in the victory over Miami on Jan. 27.

3. James established a new career high Sunday with his 32nd double-double.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Hot Teams
-- Washington won last three games, but lost four of last five road tilts (4-5 AF).
-- Portland won five of its last eight games (3-6 last nine A).
-- Nets won four of last six games (3-4 AF with PJ).
-- Dallas won five of last seven games (4-1 last five AU). Hawks won last three games, by 4-13-12 points (3-1 last four HF).
-- Miami won its last 22 games (10-0 last ten AF). Celtics won seven of their last nine games (3-3 HU).
-- Nuggets won their last eleven games (8-1-1 last ten AF). Bulls won last three home games, allowing 85 ppg (2-5 HU).
-- Memphis won its last seven home games (1-4 last five HF).
-- Lakers won eight of last ten games (3-1 last four AF).
-- Utah won its last three home games, allowing 80.7 ppg (3-0 last three HF).

Cold Teams
-- Pacers lost three of their last four games (3-1 last four AF). Cavaliers lost six of their last eight (1-3 last four HU).
-- Bobcats lost 12 of last 13 games (1-5 last six HU).
-- 76ers lost six of their last eight games (5-2 last seven HF).
-- Detroit lost its last eight games (1-4 last five HU).
-- Minnesota lost eight of last eleven games (1-4 last five AU).
-- Hornets lost six of their last seven games (6-12-1 HU). Golden State lost four of its last five road games (4-4-1 AF).
-- Suns lost six of their last seven games (1-4 last five HU).
-- Knicks lost five of their last six games (1-5 last six U).

Totals
-- Last five Indiana games went over the total.
-- Washington's last 12 road games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last nine Portland games went over the total.
-- Last three New Jersey games went over the total.
-- Eight of last eleven Dallas games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Miami games.
-- Six of last eight Denver games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Minnesota games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Golden State games went over total.
-- Four of last five Laker games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Utah games stayed under the total.

Back-to-backs
-- Brooklyn covered five of last six when it played night before.
-- Dallas is 10-4 vs spread if it played night before. Hawks are 11-9.
-- Miami is 5-3 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Minnesota is 4-7 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Warriors are 3-5 vs spread last eight times they played night before. New Orleans is 7-9 if it played night before.
-- Lakers are 4-7-1 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Knicks covered last three times they played night before.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Blackhawks won eight of their last ten games.
-- Anaheim won five of its last six games.
-- Minnesota won four of its last five games.
-- Los Angeles won six of its last seven home games.

Cold teams
-- Carolina lost last two games, scoring three goals. Rangers lost last three, outscored 9-2.
-- Tampa Bay lost seven of last ten games. Flyers lost five of last seven road games.
-- Dallas Stars lost last four games, outscored 16-3. Flames lost their last six away games.
-- Colorado lost last three games, outscored 15-7.
-- Sharks lost five of their last six games.
-- Vancouver lost five of its last seven games.
-- Phoenix lost its last three road games: 2-0/3-0/1-0(so).

Totals
-- Over is 5-0-1 in last six Ranger-Carolina games.
-- Four of last five Philly road games went over the total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Calgary games.
-- 12 of last 18 Chicago-Colorado games went over the total.
-- Over is 4-0-1 in San Jose's last five games.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Minnesota games.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Phoenix road games.

Series records
-- Rangers won their last five games against Carolina.
-- Lightning won seven of last ten games against Philly.
-- Flames won last three games vs Dallas, scoring 16 goals.
-- Avalanche won four of last five games with Chicago.
-- Ducks won six of last eight games with San Jose.
-- Canucks won nine of last 12 games with Minnesota.
-- Kings won five of last seven games with Phoenix.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

03/18/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 650-304 (.681)
ATS: 513-466 (.524)
ATS Vary Units: 1302-1163 (.528)
Over/Under: 502-476 (.513)
Over/Under Vary Units: 677-618 (.523)

PHILADELPHIA 97, Portland 95
Washington 97, CHARLOTTE 91
Indiana 98, CLEVELAND 95
ATLANTA 102, Dallas 99
Brooklyn 96, DETROIT 94
Miami 98, BOSTON 94
Denver 100, CHICAGO 98
MEMPHIS 100, Minnesota 85
NEW ORLEANS 100, Golden State 99
L.A. Lakers 105, PHOENIX 101
UTAH 100, New York 97

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

03/18/13 Predictions

Season: 155-103 (.601)

N.Y. RANGERS 3, Carolina 2
TAMPA BAY 4, Philadelphia 3
Calgary vs. DALLAS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Chicago 3, COLORADO 2
VANCOUVER 3, Minnesota 2
ANAHEIM 3, San Jose 2
LOS ANGELES 3, Phoenix 2