3-20-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goldsheet

PURDUE by 14 over Western Illinois (Wednesday, March 20)

SAN ANTONIO by 21 over Golden State (Wed., March 20)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Liberty (+2) Tuesday.

Wednesday it's LIU. Deficit: 55 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN

Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Lookahead spot

Gonzaga has long held a warm place in the hearts of college hoops bettors as the "little team that could". The Bulldogs, perennial Cinderellas in the NCAA tournament, are no longer long shots and enter this year’s Big Dance as one of the four top-seeded evil step sisters. It’s been a long climb to the top for the Zags and could be an even further fall if they get caught looking down the bracket.

Gonzaga opens against No. 16 Southern University out of the SWAC Thursday and oddsmakers have tabbed the Bulldogs as 21.5-point favorites.

Being a hefty fave is nothing new to Mark Few’s crew but going deep in the tournament is. Gonzaga has made it out of the first weekend only once in its last six NCAAs and is 4-7 ATS in that span. Southern has a history of tournament magic as well, knocking off No. 4 Georgia Tech as a No. 13 seed in the 1993 NCAA tournament. Chances are, bettors won't see the first No. 16-over-No. 1 upset but they want to be careful when giving all those points.

Letdown spot

The Oklahoma City Thunder test their playoff mettle with big conference clashes against the Denver Nuggets Tuesday - who have won 12 in a row - and the Memphis Grizzlies Wednesday, two teams fighting for position in the Western standings. The Thunder have lost just once in their last nine outings heading into the Denver game, posting a 6-3 ATS mark in that stretch.

Following Wednesday’s road trip to Memphis, OKC turns the intensity down to a low hum with a trip to face the Orlando Magic Friday. These two teams tangled just last week, with the Thunder failing to cover the 17-point spread in a 117-104 win over Orlando at home. The Magic are stellar as double-digit dogs this season, boasting a 10-1 ATS record.

Schedule spot

When it rains it pours for the Vancouver Canucks, who have three wins in their last 10 outings heading into Tuesday’s home date with the St. Louis Blues. The Canucks’ recent skid has dropped them to seventh in the Western Conference – just two points ahead of the ninth-placed Phoenix Coyotes. Vancouver, which lost to the Minnesota Wild Monday, won’t get a chance to lick those wounds with a frantic schedule on tap this week.

The Canucks play five games in seven days, traveling to Phoenix, Los Angeles and Colorado before the end of the week. Sunday’s game against the Avalanche could be extremely taxing, coming from a sea-level contest versus the Kings Saturday to the thin-air of the Pepsi Center. Vancouver has just one win in its last five road games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA Play-in Games: JMU vs. LIU Brooklyn, La Salle vs. BSU

James Madison Dukes vs. LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds (-1.5, 144.5)

LIU Brooklyn is no stranger to the rigors of March as it begins its third consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament. While the Blackbirds have been turned away the previous two times by a pair of the nation’s elite programs, they should have a better opportunity to nail down their first NCAA tournament victory in school history Wednesday in a first-round matchup against James Madison in Dayton, Ohio. In its first two tournament appearances, LIU Brooklyn has exited quickly thanks to second-round games against North Carolina in 2011 and Michigan State in 2012.

The Blackbirds, who clinched an automatic berth by virtue of their victory over Mount Saint Mary’s in the Northeast Conference tournament title game, enter this round of 68 with the No. 5 scoring offense in the country at 79.5 points and tied for eighth in shooting (48.3 percent). The Dukes are on a four-game winning streak after capturing their second Colonial Athletic Association tournament championship. James Madison is seeking its first tournament win since bowing out in the second round three straight years from 1981-83.

TV: 6:40 p.m. ET, truTV

ABOUT JAMES MADISON (20-14, 21-10-0 ATS): The Dukes are in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1994 and fifth time in school history. James Madison received the bulk of its offense from A.J. Davis and Devon Moore – the team’s second- and third-leading scorers – during the conference tournament as they combined for 105 of the team’s 200 points. Leading scorer Rayshawn Goins enjoyed his best performance in the title game since missing a game Feb. 6 with a foot injury, shooting 6-for-10 with 14 points and 13 rebounds. Over his previous eight games, Goins averaged 9.1 points and 5 rebounds, but converted only 30.1 percent of his field-goal attempts.

ABOUT LIU BROOKLYN (20-13, 4-0-0 ATS): The Blackbirds overcame a number of obstacles to claim their third consecutive NEC crown as four players were suspended for their role in a fight this fall and reigning league player of the year Julian Boyd tore his anterior cruciate ligament in December. "Everything went right the last two years and this year they had to show their true colors," first-year coach Jack Perri said following the team’s 91-70 victory over Mount Saint Mary’s. Northeast Conference Player of the Year Jamal Olasewere is the Blackbirds’ all-time career scoring leader with 1,851 points and ranks fourth in school history with 953 rebounds.

TRENDS:

* Dukes are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games.
* Blackbirds are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral-site games.
* Dukes are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
* Under is 15-6-2 in Dukes' last 23 overall.

TIP-INS:

1. Northeast Conference tournament MVP C.J. Garner (16.1 points) averaged 28 during LIU Brooklyn’s three-game run in the conference tournament.

2. Coach Matt Brady has directed James Madison to three 20-win seasons in his five years, two more than the school posted since its last CAA title.

3. Perri became the third first-year coach to guide his team to the NEC tournament title.

La Salle Explorers vs. Boise State Broncos (-1.5, 139)

Guard play has taken on added significance in recent NCAA Tournament play, a trend that Boise State and La Salle have taken to an extreme. Two similar teams will take the court Wednesday when the Broncos and Explorers meet in a first-round game in Dayton, Ohio. Boise State relies heavily on its four-guard lineup and the nation’s 13th-best 3-point shooting team while La Salle can sometimes employ five guards and finished second in the Atlantic-10 averaging 8.1 steals.

The Broncos, who were the first team in the country to post multiple victories over ranked opponents, received an at-large bid following their fifth-place finish in the Mountain West. Boise State won five of six entering its conference tournament, but lost in the quarterfinals to San Diego State after defeating the Aztecs five days earlier. Similarly, La Salle won seven of eight before losing at Saint Louis to close out the regular season and against Butler in the Atlantic-10 tournament quarterfinals.

TV: 9:10 p.m. ET, truTV

ABOUT LA SALLE (21-9, 12-12-2 ATS): The Explorers received their first NCAA Tournament invite since 1992 and regularly start four guards, although five average at least 23.8 minutes. Ramon Galloway, a South Carolina transfer, leads La Salle in scoring, assists and steals. Sam Mills is 17-of-33 beyond the arc over his last nine games and often draws the opponent’s best perimeter player. However, the Explorers could be without 6-11 sophomore center Steve Zack, who is listed as day-to-day with a foot injury. Zack’s potential absence looms large against a Boise State team that lacks any significant size in its frontcourt.

ABOUT BOISE STATE (21-10, 16-11-0 ATS): The Broncos are in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2008 and sixth time in program history. Anthony Drmic (17.3 points) and Derrick Marks (16.3) make up one of the top-scoring guard duos in the country. While Drmic is the team’s leading scorer, Marks is the team’s best playmaker and leads the team in assists (3.9) as well as steals (1.8). Boise State is unlikely to be intimidated by the stage after winning at Creighton – behind a career-high 35 points from Marks – and losing by four at Michigan State during its non-conference schedule.

TRENDS:

* Explorers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five neutral-site games.
* Broncos are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 neutral-site games.
* Over is 8-2 in Explorers' last 10 neutral-site games.
* Over is 6-1 in Broncos' last seven neutral-site games.

TIP-INS:

1. Marks leads Boise State with 13 blocked shots.

2. La Salle is 5-1 in games decided by three points or less.

3. The Broncos went 13-4 when they hit at least eight 3-pointers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong
By JESSE SCHULE

Each week throughout the college basketball season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule dissected the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. Now, he breaks down the NCAA tournament field to showcase the most overrated team, the most underrated ranked team, and a dangerous team that could do damage to brackets this March.

Most Underrated NCAA Team - Miami Hurricanes (27-6 SU, 20-9-1 ATS)

It's shocking that the Hurricanes didn't get the No. 1 seed after everything they accomplished this year. They finished at the top of the ACC during the regular season and went on to win the conference tournament. They had impressive wins during the season over Duke and Michigan State, and they won on the road against N.C. State and North Carolina.

Miami was a very profitable 20-9-1 ATS this season and it hasn’t been getting a lot of credit from the books. The Canes have a good draw in their first game, facing the Pacific Tigers. The Hurricanes should cruise to an easy victory and they look like they could go deep into the tournament.

Most Overrated NCAA Team - Gonzaga Bulldogs (31-2 SU, 17-12-2 ATS)

The Bulldogs have only lost twice this season and both of those losses came against Top-25 teams. That gives them a record of 1-2 against ranked opponents, so you have to be pretty suspect of their record given that almost all of their wins have come against unranked teams.

We will find out how good these Bulldogs are when they face some of the better teams in the country. First they will take on the Southern Jaguars, and they are an enormous favorite in that game. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bulldogs struggle as they get deeper into the tournament and I’m forecasting an early exit.

Most Dangerous NCAA Team - North Carolina Tar Heels (24-10 SU, 20-12 ATS)

After a slow start to the season, the Tar Heels are peaking at the right time. They have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 overall and they have a profitable record of 19-12-2 ATS. North Carolina has lost four times since January 26 but all four of those losses have come against either Miami or Duke.

The Tar Heels take on Villanova in their first game of the tourney and the Wildcats are tough customers. They beat Syracuse, Louisville and Georgetown this season, but all of those upset victories came at home. North Carolina could be a sleeper to make a nice run in the tournament.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA futures action report: Books cheering against Miami
By JASON LOGAN

With the NCAA regional matchups in place, college basketball bettors have a good idea of which teams have the easiest and toughest paths to the national championship. Along with a slew of game lines, books also released their updated outright winner odds on Selection Sunday and bettors were quick to jump on a few contenders.

The two most notable NCAA futures plays both came out of the Sunshine State. The No. 3 Florida Gators and No. 2 Miami Hurricanes took substantial early action with bettors buying up the Gators at +900 and Miami at +1,300.

“Interesting sharp betting patterns have seen both of Florida’s giants as early favorites for outright tournament winner props,” an oddsmaker for BetDSI.com told Covers. “The Florida Gators are seeing some action and the Miami Hurricanes are getting some sharp money love.”

Miami could end up being a big loser for sportsbooks – which means a big winner for NCAAB bettors – if the Hurricanes continue their hot play following an ACC tournament title. According to CarbonSports.ag, plenty of bettors scooped up Miami at 100-1 to win the NCAA tournament before its strong conference run.

“No question we will be rooting against the Miami Hurricanes,” Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker for CarbonSports.ag told Covers. “Miami surprised a lot of experts and surprised us. It only takes a few bets at that kind of price to get exposed and that’s what happened to us.”

On top of those two Florida teams, programs like Kansas State, Ohio State and Indiana also pose a big threat to the books’ futures market. According to Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, the Hoosiers and Buckeyes are neck-and-neck in terms of futures tickets written.

Indiana has been a popular play all season and continues to get support from bettors as the No. 1 seed in the East Regional. The Hoosiers were around +700 to win the NCAA for most of the year and now sit at +600 entering the Round of 64. Duke is also among those favorites drawing futures money for most of the season. The No. 2 Blue Devils are +800 coming out of a tough Midwest bracket.

“Not surprising as both teams have been ranked near the top of the polls all year, and we’re also talking about two storied universities with tons of history and popularity,” Stewart says of IU and Duke. “But at those low prices, we’ll be able to balance out that action.”

Here’s a full list of the tournament outright winner odds:

Louisville +500
Indiana +600
Kansas +800
Gonzaga +800
Duke +800
Miami FL +1,000
Georgetown +1,000
Ohio St +1,500 Bet
Michigan St +1,200
Marquette +2,500
Florida +1,000
New Mexico +1,500
St Louis +2,000
Syracuse +1,500
Michigan +1,500
Kansas St +3,000
Oklahoma St +4,000
UNLV +3,000
VCU +3,000
Wisconsin +4,000
Memphis +7,500
Butler +7,500
UCLA +5,000
Arizona +4,000
Creighton +7,500
Illinois +10,000
San Diego St +10,000
Notre Dame +10,000
Colorado St +10,000
North Carolina St +5,000
North Carolina +5,000
Pittsburgh +5,000
Missouri +5,000
Temple +10,000
Villanova +10,000
Wichita St +10,000
Cincinnati +10,000
Colorado +10,000
Oklahoma +10,000
Iowa St +10,000
Middle Tennessee +30,000
St Marys +30,000
Bucknell +20,000
Minnesota +15,000
Belmont +20,000
Oregon +15,000
California +25,000
Akron +30,000
Ole Miss +25,000
New Mexico St +50,000
Montana +50,000
South Dakota St +50,000
Boise St +50,000
LaSalle +50,000
Valparasio +50,000
Davidson +50,000
Northwestern St +100,000
Harvard +100,000
Albany +100,000
Pacific +100,000
Florida GC +100,000
Iona +100,000
Liberty +100,000
North Carolina A&T +100,000
LIU-Brooklyn +100,000
James Madison +100,000
Western Kentucky +100,000
Southern +100,000

Odds courtesy of TopBet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAA tournament biggest betting mismatches: Round of 64

The NCAA tournament presents college basketball bettors with some unique matchups they wouldn’t get anywhere else, which makes the Big Dance ripe with mismatches.

Of course, you see more of these in games involving high and low seeds – like a No. 1 versus a No. 16 – but here are four underlying mismatches that may make or break your bets in the second round.

No. 3 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 14 Valparaiso Crusaders (+10, 127)

Spartans’ home-court edge vs. Crusaders’ Indiana roots

Michigan State wound up in the toughest region in the tournament – the Midwest – but it got the luck of the draw with its first two tournament games scheduled in its home state. The Spartans make the short trip to Detroit to face the Crusaders in the Palace of Auburn Hills Thursday, a homecoming for many of MSU’s players.

Valparaiso is just four hours from Detroit but Michigan basketball fans don’t take kindly to teams from Indiana, whether their names are the Hoosiers or the Crusaders.

"It's going to be a home game for them basically in Michigan," Valpo head coach Bryce Drew told MLive.com.

No. 12 Mississippi Rebels vs. No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers (-6, 28)

Rebels’ up-tempo offense vs. Badgers’ slow-motion sets

Ole Miss ranks 10th in the country in points per game (77.9) and fires up an average of 62 shots an outing – fifth most in the land. Wisconsin, on the other hand, attempted just 47 field goals in its 50-43 loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten title game and averages 65.5 points on the season. Someone’s got to give in this West Regional showdown.

The Rebels come into the tournament with a ton of momentum and a chip on their shoulder after winning the SEC championship but only receiving a No. 12 seed for their efforts. Ole Miss is hoping starting point guard Jarvis Summers can return from a concussion and dictate the flow but books seem to think Wisconsin will control the pace with the total set at 128 points – Mississippi’s second-lowest total all season.

No. 4 Saint Louis Billikens vs. No. 13 New Mexico State Aggies (+9, 122)

Billikens’ undersized F Dwayne Evans vs. Aggies’ 7-footer Sim Bhullar

Saint Louis built a ton of buzz heading into March, winning both the A-10 regular season and tournament titles. That success is in part due to 6-foot-5 forward Dwayne Evans, who has stepped up as the Billikens’ go-to scorer in recent games. Evans was recently called a "below-the-rim workaholic” by local reporters, which may not bode well for the SLU junior versus the Aggies’ towering frontcourt.

New Mexico State will plug 7-foot-5, 355-pound center Sim Bhullar in the middle of the paint in order to disrupt Evans. Bhullar averaged 10.2 points, 6.5 rebounds and swatted more than two blocks per game. Behind him is fellow Toronto native 6-foot-10 forward Renaldo Dixon, who averaged 1.3 blocks in just under 19 minutes a game. The Aggies finished 13th in the nation in swats – 5.5 an outing – and held opponents to 39.8 percent shooting.

No. 5 VCU Rams vs. No. 12 Akron Zips (+7.5, 135.5)

Rams’ pressure defense vs. Zips’ shaky backcourt

VCU leads the nation in steals (11.8 per game) and turnovers forced (19.9 per game). The Rams thrive on their foes' mistakes and turn those into points, a big reason why they shoot 44.9 percent from the field. It’s not too tough when you keep getting fast break layups.

The Zips are a man down heading into the NCAA after starting point guard Alex Abreu was arrested for drug trafficking and suspended before the MAC tournament. Akron had 31 total turnovers in the two games without Abreu and average 13.7 on the year. VCU head coach Shaka Smart was once an assistant for the Zips and knows Akron head coach Keith Dambrot very, very well.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Betting Champ
Boston [A] bet
Philadelphia [A] bet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Hot Teams
-- Miami won its last 23 games (11-2 last 13 AF).
-- Atlanta won three of last four games (3-5 last eight HF). Bucks won four of last six road games (5-1 last six AU).
-- Celtics won seven of last ten games, lost last two on road (2-6 last eight AF).
-- Nets won five of last seven games (7-2 last nine AU). Dallas won six of its last eight games (7-3 last ten HF).
-- Rockets won three of last four at home (6-3 last nine HF).
-- Oklahoma City won 11 of last 14 games (1-2-1 AU). Grizzlies won eight of their last ten games (2-4 last six HF).
-- Spurs won six of last eight games (1-3 last four HF).
-- Wizards won three of last four games, but lost last four road games. (7-4 last 11 AU).
-- 76ers won three of last four games, but lost 13 in row on road (5-8 last 13 AU).

Cold Teams
-- Cavaliers lost five of last six games (1-4 last five HU).
-- Charlotte lost 12 of last 14 games (3-10 last 13 HU). Raptors lost eight of last 11 games (1-1 AF).
-- Magic lost six of last seven games (6-1 last seven AU). New York lost four of last five games (1-4 last five HF).
-- Hornets lost seven of their last eight games (1-3 last four H).
-- Jazz lost six of their last eight games (3-7 last ten AU).
-- Warriors lost four of their last five games (2-8 last 10 AU).
-- Suns lost six of their last eight games (0-3 last three HF).
-- Clippers are 3-4 in last seven games (2-3 last five HF).


Totals
-- Three of last four Cleveland home games went over.
-- Four of last five Toronto road games went over total.
-- Seven of last ten Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Seven of last ten Knick games stayed under the total.
-- Last three Boston games went over the total.
-- Last four Brooklyn games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Utah games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Memphis games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Golden State games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Phoenix home games, 12 of last 13 Washington road games stayed under.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in Philly's last eight games.

Back-to-backs
-- Milwaukee is 5-11 vs spread if it played night before.
-- Orlando is 5-3 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Thunder are 5-6 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Clippers are 4-2 vs spread at home if they played night before.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CBB

Play-in games (Dayton, Wed)
James Madison's leading scorer Goins is suspended for first half after he was arrested over weekend; Dukes finished 4th in #20 league, are 9-7 in non-league games. LIU won five in row, 15 of last 18 games after 6-game losing skid early in January; Blackbirds beat Hofstra by 4 in only game vs CAA foe- they finished T2 in #24 league, make 38.5% behind the arc (#16 in country). Seven of last eight JMU games were decided by 5 or less points. NEC squads are 2-0 in play-in games, winning by 22-9 in a pair of games vs MEAC teams- they haven't won any other tournament games in last 28 years.

Boise State won at Creighton, lost by 4 at Michigan State, they went 9-8 in MWC, 14-2 outside it; Broncos make 38.7% of 3's (#15 in country), but they're a young team (one senior in rotation) and depend on Marks to be explosive scorer (5-6-38-4-27-14 points last six games). LaSalle is also guard-oriented, making 37.1% behind arc. Unsure if 6-11 Zack will play here (missed last three games); Explorers are 3-2 vs top 60 teams, beating Villanova/VCU/Butler, losing to Miami/Saint Louis. MWC was #3 league this year, A-16 #8. Boise State is 4-7 vs top 60 teams. You'd think this would be a high scoring teams, with teams that can shoot.

Other tournaments
There is nothing as futile as trying to handicap these consolation events that run opposite the NCAAs, especially in the first round, because the most important issue is this: Who still wants to be playing? I have no idea who still wants to play; once they play a game or two, then maybe we can come up with something, but for this week, I'd stay away. That said, some very brief notes on these games........

-- Indiana State lost six of its last eight games; its last three wins were all by a point. Iowa split pair of neutral court tilts with MVC teams, with 75-63 loss to Wichita State, 80-73 win over Northern Iowa.
-- Charlotte is 6-9 in last 15 games after starting season 15-2; they make 26.7% behind arc, 4th-worst in country. Providence lost last two games, scoring 59-44 points; they split pair vs A-16 teams this year.
-- UMass is 10-3 outside A-16; they're 5-2 in last seven games, got beat by VCU in A-16 tourney. Stony Brook is 0-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 11 at UConn, 7 at Maryland, both before Christmas.
-- Mercer is 5-5 outside A-Sun, winning at Alabama, losing at Georgia by 9; they lost other two top 100 games, by 29-18 points. Tennessee is 9-2 in last 11 games, disappointed to be left out of NCAAs.
-- Long Beach State played #1 non-league schedule in country, going 4-8 with six losses by 15+ points. Baylor beat Kansas by 23 here, but lost nine of last 13 overall.

-- Southern Miss was 0-3 vs Memphis this year, losing conference final in double OT to Tigers; they're 7-5 in last 12 games, after starting 18-4. Charleston Southern is 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 9-12-13 points.
-- Detroit went 8-6 vs #14 non-league schedule; they're 2-5 vs teams in top 100, beating Akron/Valpo. Arizona State played 6th-easiest slate in country pre-conference; they've lost five of last six games overall.
-- Western Illinois plays the slowest-paced games in America; their best player Parks was hurt during Summit tourney, status ?? here. Purdue is 5-9 in its last 14 games- they're only 7-6 in non-league games.
-- Richmond lost three of last four games; they make 38% from arc, #27 in US. Bryant's bench plays 2nd-least minutes in America; they're 6th-shortest- this is just their 5th year in D-I, so they're happy to be here.
-- Young Tulsa (#304 in experience/rookie coach) is 5-7 in last 12 games, but 3-2 in last five road games. Wright State won three of last four tilts, losing at Valparaiso in Horizon final.
-- North Dakota State won four of last five games; they lost at Akron by 15 in only game vs MAC opponent. Western Michigan is 2-3 in its last five games; they beat Oakland by 4, in only game vs Summit foe.

-- Inexperienced Texas (youngest team in country) is 6-4 since Kabongo got eligible; they're 10-0 this year vs teams ranked outside the top 150. Houston was 8-10 in C-USA; they played worst non-league schedule in entire country, going 11-2.
-- Elon hasn't played in 10 days; they won five of last seven road games. Canisius hasn't played in 11 days; they're 3-5 in last eight games overall. Griffs are 8-1 vs teams ranked outside top 200.
-- South Alabama gets 26.8% of points from foul line, #2 in nation; they lost by 14 at UAB, in only game vs C-USA opponent. Tulane lost five of last six games after starting season 18-9.
-- Green Bay is 0-2 vs MVC teams, losing by 2 to Southern Illinois at home, by 17 at Drake. Bradley lost 12 of last 18 games, after starting the season 10-4- they beat UIC by a point, only game vs Horizon team.
-- Ill-Chicago lost seven of last ten games; they're only 4-3 vs teams not in top 250. Chicago State is 0-3 vs Horizon teams, losing to Green Bay by 5, Valparaiso by 21, Loyola by 3 in OT.

-- Oral Roberts replaced UT-Arlington in Southland; they've lost four of last five games, went 5-8 vs #23 non-conference schedule. Arlington lost WAC final in Vegas Saturday; they're 9-4 in their last 13 games.
-- Cal Poly is 9-2 in its last 11 games; they play 3rd-slowest tempo in country- four of their last seven losses are by 2 points. Weber State lost Big Sky final at Montana, ending its 13-game winning streak.
-- Cal-Irvine lost Big West final in Anaheim Saturday; they're 8-2 in last ten games. High Point is 5-8 out of conference; they lost three of last four games, after 7-game win streak.
-- Northern Iowa (-16.5) beat North Dakota 72-47 Nov 17; UND made iust 5-22 behind arc, but won four of last five overall, blowing 12-point lead over Weber in Big Sky semis. UNI lost three of last four games.
-- Fairfield lost four of last six games, scoring 46.7 ppg; Stags are 2-4 vs teams in top 125, losing by 9-15-19-11 points. Kent State won six of its last seven games, then lost by 3 to Akron in MAC semis.
-- Air Force star Lyons (knee) is out; Falcons lost seven of last 10 games but beat Riverside by 8 in only game vs Big West opponent. Hawaii is 2-5 in last seven games, but won four of last five at home.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CBB

Thursday's NCAA games
Day games
Valparaiso is most experienced team in country, with two juniors and six seniors in rotation; Crusaders won last six games and 16 of last 18, but lost by hoop at Nebraska, one of worst teams in Big Dozen. Michigan State is 3-4 in last seven games, with all four losses to teams in top 15; they beat Loyola by 12, in only game vs Horizon foe. Spartans played toughest schedule in country; since 2000, Izzo is 3-2 as double digit favorite in this round, but covered just one of last four first round games. Last six years, #3 seeds are 16-8 against spread in this round; first round favorites of between 10-20 points are 27-22 vs spread.

Since 2001, Patriot League teams are 9-3 vs spread in this round, 2-1 if a single digit underdog; LY, Lehigh upset Duke in 2-15 game. Bucknell has a good resume, beating Purdue-New Mexico State-Kent State-LaSalle, losing by hoop at Missouri- this is highest seed for Patriot squad since Bucknell (+4) upset Arkansas 59-55 in an '09 8-9 game. Last four years, dogs are 11-5 vs spread in 6-11 games; since '09, first round underdogs of 5 or less points are 38-19 vs spread. Butler is 10-6 last 16 games after a 16-2 start; Stevens is master when given prep time- Butler was 3-1 as a favorite in two years they went to Finals (dog in six of ten wins).

Over last six years, underdogs are 18-6 vs spread in 8-9 games; since '99, underdogs of 4+ points are 5-2 in 8-9 games. Since '89, dogs are 16-8 SU in the 8-9 game in West region. Pitt missed tourney LY, then played the #339 non-league schedule this year; Dixon is 7-1 in first round tilts (5-3 vs spread), but all seven wins were as 5-seed or higher, loss as 9-seed to Pacific in '05. Wichita split its last six games, losing to Creighton twice; they lost to VCU in 5-12 game LY, their first tourney under Marshall. This figures to be a physical, low-scoring game. First round underdogs of 5 or less points are 38-19 against the spread.

Saint Louis played in Brooklyn last weekend, winning final on Sunday, now has early Thursday game in San Jose, not easiest travel schedule for veteran team that is fashionable pick as Final Foul sleeper. Billikens had rough 3-3 start, but are on 15-1 run now- they've got four juniors, three seniors in rotation, are in top 20 in country at getting to foul line, which could hurt if game isn't called tight. #4 seed in Midwest got upset four of last five years; other #4's are 9-6 vs spread (13-2 SU) during that time. New Mexico State has 7-5 freshman center; they've won 18 of 20 after a 6-8 start, are #3 team in country getting to line, but their best assist guy (Watson) has been injured. Aggies were in Vegas last week; less travel.

Davidson is very well-coached; they made run to Elite 8 in ’08 with Steph Curry, but those are SoCon’s only tournament wins since ’97. Since ’02, Wildcats are 1-4 in first round, losing by 5-8-12-7 points (lost 69-62 (+7) to Louisville LY). Marquette is 4-1 in last five first round games, winning last two years by 11-20 points (won 88-68 (-6) as 3-seed LY). Wildcats won last 17 games; they went 6-6 vs #16 non-conference schedule; best teams they beat were #83 Richmond, #85 Vandy. Marquette won six of last eight games, but lost in first Big East tourney game. First-round underdogs of 5 or less points are 38-19 vs spread, but over last 14 years, #3’s are 53-3 SU in this round.

Lot of pressure on Memphis coach Pastner, who went 19-0 in C-USA but has yet to win NCAA game, losing by 2-7 points last two years as replacement for Calipari, who was 12-3 in NCAAs three years prior to that. Tigers lost non-league game 64-62 at Xavier Feb 26, only loss since Dec 15 at home to Louisville. Memphis plays at #28 tempo; they'll try to wear down St Mary's with their better athletes. St Mary's played three starters 35+ minutes in methodical win Tuesday over an athletic Middle Tennessee team; Gaels are 24-4 in last 28 games, losing all three games with Gonzaga, by 5-17-14 points. Over last four years, underdogs are 11-5 vs spread in 6-11 games. St Mary's is 3-4 in NCAA games under Bennett, upsetting #2 Villanova on short prep time after beating #7 Richmond two days earlier, scenario similar to this one.

This is first time in five years the SWAC rep hasn’t gone to play-in game; they’re 2-4 vs spread in last six regular first-round games, losing last two by 43-41 points. Southern won 22 of last 26 games after its 1-6 start, losing to Iowa State by 23, Nebraska by 11, Wyoming by 7- they won at Texas A&M. Jaguars have #2 eFG% in country (41.6%) but no one in SWAC can shoot. From 2004-6, Gonzaga was #2-3-3 seed, won first round games by 27-10-4 points; this is its first #1 seed. Bulldogs are 11-0 vs teams ranked outside top 150, with 10 of 11 wins by 16+ points; they could be looking ahead to second round, vs Pitt/Wichita winner. Over last five years, #1’s are 13-7 vs spread in this round.

Oregon was 17-2 when PG Artis hurt his foot; they went 5-4 while he was out, are 4-2 since he came back, but 14 minutes he played in Pac-12 title game, and totals of 7-24 from floor, 2-11 inside arc since he came back indicate he isn’t close to 100%. Oklahoma State is in NCAAs for first time in three years, third time in seven years since Eddie Sutton retired; they won 12 of last 15 games, have one of two best freshmen in country in Smart (4-19 from arc in their last three losses, 3.4 3’s/game (13-41) in their last 12 wins). Last five years, underdogs are 12-8 vs spread in 5-12 games; since 1994, dogs are 15-4 vs spread in 5-12 Midwest game. Ducks took advantage of Jordan Adams’ injury to beat UCLA Saturday; 12-seed says they might be in NIT had they lost that game.

Night games
Since 1993, Louisville is 3-11-1 vs spread in first round games, losing in first round two of last three years; only other time they were a #1 seed, Cardinals (-20.5) beat Morehead State by 20. North Carolina A&T used four starters 31+ minutes in 73-72 play-in win Tuesday; Aggies lost at Cincinnati 93-39 in its only game against a Big East team. A&T is in serious trouble vs Louisville; they turn it over 22.5% of time, bad news vs Cardinal club that forces turnovers 27.6% of time, #2 in US. #1 seeds are 13-7 vs spread in this round, over last five years. Louisville is 3-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200 this season, winning by 26-41-52 points; they had 44-10 run in second half vs Syracuse, after being down 15 early in second half. Question is, will they let down after winning conference tournament, and looking ahead to winner of Missouri-Colorado State?

South Dakota State is solid offensive team that won at New Mexico, lost by 3 at Alabama, but also lost at Hofstra/Bakersfield. Jackrabbits make 39.4% behind arc, are #26 in eFG% (53.5%) but also lost by 24 at Minnesota, in their only game vs Big Dozen team. State doesn’t sub much, but is #43 experience team in country, while Michigan is #338. Wolverines (two juniors, no seniors in rotation) went 6-6 in last 12 games, after starting season 20-1; six of its seven losses came vs top 10 teams. Michigan is 2-1 in first round under Beilein, winning by 3-30, with dog covering all three games- they lost as 4-seed to Ohio LY. Last seven years, #4 seeds are 17-11 vs spread in this round. Summit League teams are 0-5 last five years, 2-3 vs spread, losing by 19-10-23-4-8 points, all as 13-14 seeds. Playing in Auburn Hills can’t hurt Michigan.

Belmont is in NCAAs for 6th time since 2006; they’re 0-5 SU, 1-4 vs spread, losing by 34-25-1-14-15 points, with only cover 71-70 (+20) loss to Duke in 2-15 game five years ago- they lost by 14-15 points last two years. Bruins won at Stanford, but lost to VCU by 10, Kansas by 29. Belmont’s 56.8% eFG% is #2 in country; they make 37.6% behind arc, 57.1% inside arc (#1 in country). Since 1985, Arizona is 3-7 SU in first round of NCAAs when lower than a 4-seed; they’re 5-5 in last 10 games after a 20-2 start. First round underdogs of 5 or less points are 38-19 vs spread; over last four years, underdogs are 11-5 vs spread in 6-11 games. Game is in altitude in Salt Lake City; Belmont ranks #284 in bench minutes; will longer TV timeouts save them from getting worn down?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Lightning won three of last four games.
-- Minnesota won five of its last six games. Red Wings won last two games, allowing two goals in each.
-- Oilers won three of their last four games.
-- Ducks won six of their last seven games. Chicago won eight of its last ten games, allowing four goals in last three.

Cold teams
-- Toronto lost its last five games, allowing 22 goals.
-- San Jose lost six of its last seven games.
-- Avalanche lost its last four games, outscored 20-9. Dallas Stars lost four of their last five games.


Totals
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Tampa Bay games.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last 10 Detroit games, 0-2-1 in last three.
-- Over is 5-0-1 in last six San Jose games.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Dallas-Colorado games.
-- Four of last five Chicago games went over the total.

Series records
-- Lightning lost four of last five games with Toronto.
-- Red Wings won nine of last 12 games vs Minnesota.
-- Sharks won 12 of last 16 games with Edmonton.
-- Dallas Stars won five of last seven games with Colorado.
-- Blackhawks lost eight of last eleven visits to Anaheim.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

03/20/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 3824-1329 (.742)
ATS: 1845-1864 (.497)
ATS Vary Units: 5140-5449 (.485)
Over/Under: 581-530 (.523)
Over/Under Vary Units: 669-623 (.518)

NCAA Tournament
1st Round at University of Dayton Arena, Dayton, OH
Long Island 77, James Madison 76
Boise State 71, La Salle 69

National Invitation Tournament
1st Round at campus sites
TENNESSEE 67, Mercer 57
PROVIDENCE 71, Charlotte 62
BAYLOR 79, Long Beach State 65
ARIZONA STATE 77, Detroit 72
SOUTHERN MISS 82, Charleston Southern 66
BYU 74, Washington 70
MASSACHUSETTS 71, Stony Brook 64
IOWA 71, Indiana State 54

College Basketball Invitational
1st Round at campus sites
Texas 77, HOUSTON 75
PURDUE 61, Western Illinois 47
WRIGHT STATE 66, Tulsa 60
Richmond 78, BRYANT 72
North Dakota State vs. WESTERN MICHIGAN: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament
1st Round at campus sites
KENT STATE 65, Fairfield 52
NORTHERN IOWA 71, North Dakota 56
CANISIUS 75, Elon 68
Green Bay 65, BRADLEY 63
TULANE 72, South Alabama 67
UIC 69, Chicago State 57
UT ARLINGTON 72, Oral Roberts 60
UC IRVINE 74, High Point 62
WEBER STATE 68, Cal Poly 60
Air Force 75, HAWAI'I 70

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

03/20/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 658-311 (.679)
ATS: 523-470 (.527)
ATS Vary Units: 1325-1178 (.529)
Over/Under: 507-485 (.511)
Over/Under Vary Units: 683-629 (.521)

Toronto 100, CHARLOTTE 95
Miami 106, CLEVELAND 96
NEW YORK 104, Orlando 91
ATLANTA 104, Milwaukee 98
Oklahoma City vs. MEMPHIS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Boston 95, NEW ORLEANS 92
HOUSTON 109, Utah 102
DALLAS 103, Brooklyn 96
SAN ANTONIO 110, Golden State 98
PHOENIX 97, Washington 96
L.A. CLIPPERS 101, Philadelphia 88