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Best bets for Sunday's games
Kansas among top values for Sunday's Round of 32 matchups
Updated: March 23, 2013, 4:06 PM ET
By Ted Sevransky | ESPN Insider
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Doug McDermott and Creighton are good enough to take Duke down to the wire.
After a poor performance from my Round of 64 picks for the East and South regions (3-3 ATS on my "best bets," and 6-9-1 on all of my picks), I'm looking to improve in a big way with my picks for Sunday's Round of 32 games.
Games are listed in "Las Vegas rotation" order. While I'll offer a pick on every game, my best bets are marked with an asterisk (*), so you'll know what games I'll be betting (or have already bet) with my own money here in Vegas.
No. 2 Duke Blue Devils versus No. 7 Creighton Bluejays
Vegas consensus line: Duke minus-5
PickCenter breakdown
The Blue Devils have not been winning games by margin away from home, just 3-8 against the spread in their last 11 tries outside of Cameron Indoor Stadium following their first-round non-cover against Albany. Since forward Ryan Kelly's 36-point outburst in his first game back following an eight-week injury absence, he's come back to earth, held to just eight points in each of his last three games. Without Kelly exploding offensively, the Blue Devils are going to continue to struggle winning by margin.
Creighton has run the gamut value-wise this season. First, the Bluejays were undervalued when they played like a legit top-10 team while getting off to a 17-1 start. Then they were overvalued as the grind of their Missouri Valley campaign, coupled with inflated point spreads, sent them into an ATS free-fall: 1-10-1 over a 12-game span. But they've snapped out of their funk with six consecutive wins and covers.
Creighton is big inside with 6-foot-9 senior center Gregory Echinique, and big on the perimeter with relentless scorer Doug McDermott. And the Bluejays have a steady hand at the point with senior Grant Gibbs. Expect them to give the Blue Devils a battle right down to the wire.
The ATS pick: Creighton
No. 7 San Diego State Aztecs versus No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles
Vegas consensus line: San Diego State minus-7.5
PickCenter breakdown
Florida Gulf Coast pulled off the biggest shocker of the tournament so far on Friday, knocking off No. 2 seed Georgetown in a wire-to-wire victory. History tells us to be very wary of a second-tier tournament team coming off a major upset. Last year, No. 15 seed Norfolk State beat Missouri in the first round, then lost by 34 to Florida two days later. Also last year, No. 15 seed Lehigh beat Duke in the first round, then lost by 12 to Xavier.
The Mountain West Conference has not enjoyed a good tournament, with Boise State, New Mexico and UNLV all going down as favorites in their opening game. But Steve Fisher's Aztecs were a clear exception to the MWC's struggles, dominating the second half against Oklahoma in their opener behind a 21-point, 8-rebound, 5-assist performance from NBA-bound junior wing Jamaal Franklin. I'm looking for more of the same from San Diego State on Sunday.
The ATS pick: Take San Diego State*
No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers versus No. 9 Temple Owls
Vegas consensus line: Indiana minus-11.5
PickCenter breakdown
There was nothing fraudulent in Temple's upset win over NC State on Friday. The Owls controlled the game from the opening tip, committed only five turnovers and were able to withstand a 56 percent shooting performance and a plus-10 rebounding margin for the favorite. But the win came with a serious price tag. Owls leading scorer Khalif Wyatt, who poured in 31 points against the Wolfpack, injured his thumb in the victory. Wyatt will play on Sunday, but his effectiveness is very much in question, especially considering how good the Hoosiers are at defending the perimeter with defensive stopper Victor Oladipo.
The Owls' struggles on the boards against the Wolfpack aren't likely to improve against the Hoosiers, either, because Cody Zeller and Christian Watford helped Indiana to a top-5 ranking in rebounding margin this season.
The ATS pick: Take Indiana
No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes versus No. 10 Iowa State Cyclones
Vegas consensus line: Ohio State minus-7
PickCenter breakdown
I've got tremendous respect for Iowa State head coach Fred Hoiberg, who demonstrated his versatility on Friday with tremendous in-game adjustments in the Cyclones' blowout win over Notre Dame. Iowa State leads the nation in made 3-pointers this year, and they stretched the Fighting Irish defense before pounding the ball into Georges Niang and Melvin Ejim in the paint, which is a fairly significant change from their typical style. Notre Dame head coach Mike Brey was effusive in his praise of the Cyclones following the game: "I really felt it was men playing against boys. They're really, really good. They're men."
Ohio State will enjoy a very friendly crowd in Dayton, but I don't expect the Buckeyes to be able to roll here without a challenge the same way they did against defense-less Iona in their opener.
The ATS pick: Take Iowa State
No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels versus No. 13 La Salle Explorers
Vegas consensus line: Ole Miss minus-3
PickCenter breakdown
Ole Miss has truly been a "refuse-to-lose" team all season. That was on full display in the SEC championship game against Florida, when the Rebels rallied back from a double-digit deficit in the second half. We saw more of the same from the Rebels in their opening round win over Wisconsin, another come-from-behind victory.
Head coach Andy Kennedy has the luxury of having two dominant senior low-post players to feed in the paint in Reggie Buckner and Murphy Holloway. But the guy making all the headlines right now is sharpshooter Marshall Henderson, the SEC's leading scorer, who missed 12 of his first 13 shots against the Badgers but got hot late and finished with a game-high 19 points.
Ole Miss ranked No. 7 in the country in scoring and finished the season ranked in the top three in the SEC in rebounding, blocked shots, turnover margin, field goal percentage defense, 3-point defense and steals. In other words, last weekend's run to the SEC tourney title was no accident, and the Rebels are primed to move on to the Sweet 16 against a LaSallle team that will be hard-pressed to pull off their third upset of the week after barely hanging on against Kansas State.
The ATS pick: Ole Miss*
No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks versus No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels
Vegas consensus line: Kansas minus-6
PickCenter breakdown
Kansas looked sluggish and lethargic in its tourney opener against Western Kentucky. Senior center Jeff Withey even admitted, "We definitely took them lightly," following the game. Don't expect that to happen twice in a row, particularly against an opponent that will certainly get the Jayhawks' attention, unlike the Hilltoppers did. Withey and fellow big menKevin Young and Perry Ellis are the key to this handicap, as they form a low post trio that is primed to give the guard-centric Tar Heels trouble in the paint.
Bill Self knocked off Roy Williams 80-67 in an Elite Eight matchup between these same two teams last year, and that was when UNC had soon-to-be first-round picks Harrison Barnes, John Henson and Tyler Zeller in the lineup. Kansas sent Thomas Robinson to the NBA, but every other key contributor from that team is back, and the Jayhawks have added future lottery pick Ben McLemore in the lineup. North Carolina might hang around for a while, but I don't expect them to hang for the full 40 minutes.
The ATS pick: Kansas*
No. 2 Miami (FL) Hurricanes versus No. 7 Illinois Fighting Illini
Vegas consensus line: Miami minus-7
PickCenter breakdown
Everything that's good and bad about the Illini was on full display in their Round of 64 win over Colorado. The Illini did everything right for a half, leading the Buffs by 16 at the break. Then they did everything wrong, allowing Colorado to go on a 23-2 run after the break. But John Groce's primary weapons -- guards Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson -- hit consecutive 3-pointers to regain the momentum and a lead they would never relinquish. That type of in-game variance is why I called the Illini "maddeningly inconsistent" in my write-up for that game, and why my opinion in support of them here is tepid at best.
Here in Vegas, the money has been pouring in on Miami since this line opened. Jim Larranaga's squad ranks among the best point-spread teams in the country this season, and bettors aren't shy about continuing to support teams that have paid off for them in the recent past. That leaves this point-spread a notch or two too high for my liking, especially when we consider the Big Ten's ATS dominance early in the Big Dance.
The ATS pick: Illinois
No. 3 Florida Gators versus No. 11 Minnesota Golden Gophers
Vegas consensus line: Florida minus-8.5
PickCenter breakdown
I picked against Florida in the Gators opening round blowout over Northwestern State, which in retrospect was an egregious error. I won't make that mistake again. The Gators are the real deal. Head coach Billy Donovan has two national championships, not to mention his shocking run with Florida as a No. 5 seed back in 2000, when the Gators made it all the way to the title game against Mateen Cleaves' Michigan State squad before falling short. They return nearly every key player from last season's Elite Eight squad, they are big down low with Eric Murphy, Patric Young and Will Yeguete, and they're getting great guard play at the point from Scottie Wilbekin and on the perimeter from sharpshooters Kenny Boyntonand Mike Rosario.
Minnesota dominated UCLA on Friday, but Tubby Smith's team spent the back half of Big Ten season getting blasted by superior squads away from home.
The ATS pick: Florida
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Prairie View at Baylor
7:30pm Sunday
pick: PV +61
This is the early line in this late game on Sunday. Baylor won last year's title and went undefeated. In their opener they beat UCSB by 81-40. The Baylor women are led by 6'8" Brittney Griner and they only lost one game this year. They stomped plenty of teams last year but the biggest win they had this year was by 65 points. They did win plenty by 30-46 points.
Prairie View has won 8 in a row and won in 4 OT's in their last game to get this far. They are led by Etienne, who had 31 in that game as well as Williams and Scott. PV lost by 22 at Texas A&M, by 12 to Kansas and by 35 to Toledo.
In game today, we did see UConn win by 105-37 (by 68) as that one opened with UConn -51 but did drop to -47 at one book. Prarie View is located in Texas so they should get some fans there. They will get stomped by more than 40 but I think the underdog has a decent chance to stay within 61 points. Baylor wants to win a title and will be happy to "survive and advance".
Prairie View A&M +61Comment
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South Regional: Day 4 NCAAB Betting Preview
(8) North Carolina Tar Heels vs. (1) Kansas Jayhawks (-6, 141.5)
North Carolina players presented head coach Roy Williams with a special jersey following Friday’s victory in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, marking Williams’ 700th career victory. A win in the third round against Kansas – which Williams led to four Final Fours – would be even more meaningful. And, if the Tar Heels needed any more motivation, there is the fact the Jayhawks bounced them from last year’s tournament. Kansas beat North Carolina 80-67 in the Midwest Regional final last season, the second consecutive year the Tar Heels have fell one win short of the Final Four.
Neither team was particularly impressive in winning their South Region openers, but the top-seed Jayhawks were pushed hard by Western Kentucky before surviving 64-57. The eighth-seed Tar Heels lost a 20-point lead but held off Villanova 78-71. The winner may be determined when North Carolina has possession: the Tar Heels are 14th nationally in scoring, while the Jayhawks lead the country in opposing field-goal percentage and rank second in blocked shots.
TV: 5:15 p.m. ET, CBS.
ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (25-10): The Tar Heels have won nine of their past 11, as a balanced offensive attack has sparked North Carolina’s late-season surge. Sophomore guard P.J. Hairston scored a team-high 23 points Friday. Sophomore forward James Michael McAdoo (14.5 points), Hairston (14.5) and junior forward Reggie Bullock (14.2) have combined to lead North Carolina in scoring 28 times this season.
ABOUT KANSAS (30-5): The Jayhawks have to play better than they did Friday, as Western Kentucky’s pressure defense gave Kansas trouble. Jeff Withey is a force inside. The 7-0 senior center scored 17 points and blocked seven shots in Friday’s victory. Withey ranks second in the nation in blocks per game (3.8) while averaging 8.4 rebounds. The Jayhawks became the first team in Division I history to win 30 games or more four consecutive seasons with Friday’s win.
TRENDS:
* Jayhawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Tar Heels’ last four overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Jayhawks’ last six Sunday games.
TIP-INS
1. North Carolina has won 25 games six times in the past eight seasons.
2. The Jayhawks are in the NCAA Tournament for the 24th consecutive season, the longest active streak in the country.
3. Williams will coach against his former school in the NCAA Tournament for the third time. The Jayhawks beat North Carolina last season and in the 2008 Final Four.
(11) Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. (3) Florida Gators (-8.5, 122.5)
Florida and Minnesota will try to maintain the momentum from their impressive NCAA Tournament openers as they meet in the South Regional quarterfinals Sunday in Austin, Texas. The third-seeded Gators stomped No. 14 Northwestern State 79-47 on Friday, about 2 1/2 hours before the 11th-seeded Golden Gophers took down No. 6 UCLA 83-63. Northwestern State entered the tournament as the highest-scoring team in the nation but Florida held the Demons to 15 second-half points. Minnesota smothered the Bruins from the opening tip, holding them to 31.7 percent shooting - including a combined 13-for-52 from the starters - on the way to its most lopsided win in tournament history.
Florida features a well-balanced offense led by seniors Erik Murphy, Kenny Boynton and Mike Rosario. The trio entered the tournament averaging between 12.3 and 12.6 points. Murphy, a 6-10 post player, will need to team with 6-9 junior center Patric Young to keep Minnesota off the boards. The Golden Gophers entered the tournament ranked eighth in the nation in rebounding margin (8.2).
TV: 6:10 p.m. ET, TNT.
ABOUT MINNESOTA (21-12): Andre Hollins is still a sophomore but he’s quickly becoming known for elevating his play this time of year. After averaging 19.5 points last season in the final two games of the Big Ten tournament and the first four of the NIT, Hollins scored 28 in Friday’s victory against UCLA. His ability to score in bunches—he put up 41 points earlier this season in a win against Memphis—makes him a threat to put Minnesota on his back. As the primary ball handler, he’s also been careful with his turnovers, recording two or fewer in nine of the last 10 games.
ABOUT FLORIDA (27-7): Boynton scored 11 points against Northwestern State, becoming the second player in program history to surpass 2,000 for his career. If the senior guard can stick around long enough to score 84 more, he would pass Ronnie Williams (1980-84) as the school’s all-time leading scorer. Boynton has played in 10 NCAA Tournament games in his career, averaging 14.8 points while leading the Gators into the Elite Eight the last two seasons. He’s supported in the backcourt by Rosario and junior Scott Wilbekin, though the best 3-point shooter on the team is Murphy at 45.6 percent.
TRENDS:
* Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.
* Under is 6-0 in Golden Gophers’ last six Sunday games.
* Under is 9-1 in Gators’ last 10 overall.
TIP-INS
1. Minnesota coach Tubby Smith and Florida coach Billy Donovan were part of Rick Pitino’s first coaching staff at Kentucky in 1989-90.
2. Minnesota and Florida played Florida State eight days apart during the nonconference portion of the season. Minnesota beat the Seminoles by nine points and the Gators prevailed by 25.
3. The winner will play either seventh-seeded San Diego State or No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast at the South Regional semifinals at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
(15) Florida Gulf Coast Eagles vs. San Diego State Aztecs (-7.5, 131)
Florida Gulf Coast became the talk of the NCAA Tournament with its stunning 78-68 upset of Georgetown on Friday and will seek the program's second tournament win when it meets San Diego State in the South Region quarterfinals in Philadelphia on Sunday. While the seventh-seeded Aztecs are trying to reach the Sweet 16 for the second time in three seasons, the Eagles will try to become the first No. 15 to get there. The previous six No. 15 seeds lost by a combined 90 points in the Round of 32.
Two very different dunks summarized their wins Friday. Eagles junior forward Chase Fieler went high in the air for a one-handed dunk on a fast-break alley-oop from sophomore guard Brett Comer to stop the Hoyas' late run. The Aztecs had everything working for them as they pulled away from Oklahoma late, including junior guard Jamaal Franklin's attempted reverse dunk that bounced on the rim three times before falling through.
TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, TBS
ABOUT FLORIDA GULF COAST (25-10): Senior guard Sherwood Brown, who leads the team with 15.3 points and 6.4 rebounds, was vaulted to celebrity status after scoring 24 points in Friday's win. Brown was seen signing autographs and posing with fans in Philadelphia while the San Diego State-Oklahoma game was being played. Comer finished with 12 points and 10 assists - including three alley-oop passes during a 21-2 run - while turning the ball over just twice. The Eagles use a tough defense to spark its transition offense. "In the second half, we pushed the ball, we got out, we ran, we made shots, got some alley-oop dunks to energize the crowd," coach Andy Enfield told the media. "I'm very proud of our players."
ABOUT SAN DIEGO STATE (23-10): Franklin, who leads the Aztecs with 16.9 points and 9.4 rebounds, has scored in double figures 30 times in 32 games, including a 21-point performance in the 70-55 win over Oklahoma. Senior guard Chase Tapley, the first player in school history to appear in four NCAA Tournaments, became the fourth Aztec to pass 1,500 career points. San Diego State is 19-3 when holding opponents to under 40 percent shooting, the latest win coming against Oklahoma (39.7). Coach Steve Fisher was pleased with is team's second-half defense as the Aztecs pulled away from the Sooners. "We have a little bit of an MO where our second-half defense doesn't match our first half, and (Friday) our second-half defense was superior to our first half and that's how we won," he said.
TRENDS:
* Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a win.
* Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Aztecs’ last six overall.
* Aztecs are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following a win.
TIP-INS
1. Florida Gulf Coast has won six straight and has not trailed in the second half of its last four games.
2. Sunday marks the first-ever meeting between the teams.
3. San Diego State is 3-8 at the NCAA Tournament while the Eagles are the only team in tournament history to have a 1-0 record.Comment
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East Regional: Day 4 NCAAB Betting Preview
(9) Temple Owls vs. Indiana Hoosiers (-11.5, 147)
Indiana made quick work of its first opponent in the NCAA Tournament, but Temple has established a reputation as a giant slayer. The two teams will square off in the Big Dance for the first time since 1994 on Sunday when they meet in the third round of the East Regional in Dayton, Ohio. The top-seeded Hoosiers never trailed against James Madison en route to an 83-62 win on Friday, shooting better than 50 percent for the fourth straight time in a NCAA Tournament game.
The nine-seed Owls, seeking their first Sweet 16 since 2001, overcame their recent history of early exits in the NCAA Tournament with a 76-72 victory over North Carolina State behind 31 points from Atlantic-10 Player of the Year Khalif Wyatt. Temple, which went 5-3 against tournament teams in the regular season, has defeated at least one top-10 opponent in each of the last five years. The winner of this contest will meet either four-seed Syracuse or 12-seed California in Washington, D.C.
TV: 2:45 p.m. ET, CBS
ABOUT TEMPLE (24-9): Wyatt went 12-for-14 from the foul line Friday, giving him 200 made free throws – breaking the single-season school record held by Hal Lear (1955-56). His 31-point effort – his sixth 30-point performance of the season – was the best from an Owl in the NCAA Tournament since 1991 and was made even more remarkable considering the fact he injured his left thumb when he got it caught in a defender’s jersey early in the second half. ''He's as tough a competitor as I've had an opportunity to coach,'' Temple's Fran Dunphy said following the game. ''He wants the moment.'' Wyatt has hit at least nine free throws in six straight games, going 62-for-71 over that stretch.
ABOUT INDIANA (28-6): The Hoosiers – the highest-scoring team remaining in the tournament – exceeded 80 points for the 19th time. Freshman Yogi Ferrell finished with 16 points, eight rebounds and six assists Friday, becoming only the third Indiana player to reach those totals in a NCAA Tournament game (Keith Smart in 1987 and Tom Coverdale in 2003). “Yogi certainly got us going in a great direction with the way that he moved the ball…he was able to find some great areas to attack,” coach Tom Crean said following the game. Christian Watford scored nine points Friday, giving him 1,708 points for his career and moving him into 10th place on the school’s all-time scoring list.
TRENDS:
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Over is 10-2 in Owls’ last 12 games following a win.
* Owls are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games.
TIP-INS
1. Indiana is 10-1 all-time as a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
2. Temple has nine wins as a No. 9 seed or lower, tied with Gonzaga for the most since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
3. Jordan Hulls is tied with Randy Wittman and Jeff Newton for the most games played (133) by a Hoosier in school history.
(7) Illinois Fighting Illini vs. (2) Miami Hurricanes (-6.5, 128.5)
Second-seeded Miami seeks to tack another memorable chapter into the season scrapbook when it faces Illinois on Sunday in Austin, Texas with a Sweet 16 berth on the line. The No. 4 Hurricanes have only advanced to the Sweet 16 once in their mostly lackluster history but are primed to make a deep run with a talented cast that won both the Atlantic Coast Conference regular-season and tournament crowns. Seventh-seeded Illinois beat Colorado in its tournament opener.
The Fighting Illini used a late 16-2 run to pull away from Colorado in a 57-49 victory. Coach John Groce is aware a better full-game effort will be needed to slay Miami. “I know that they have got great size and I know they’re going to play very hard,” Groce said. The Hurricanes trounced University of the Pacific 78-49 in their first game and getting any NCAA Tournament was a big deal to senior center Reggie Johnson and senior guard Durand Scott. “I was saying to Durand, we waited four years to play in this tournament and we finally got our first win,” Johnson said. “I went up to him and gave him a big hug and told him that we’re not done yet.”
TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, TNT
ABOUT MIAMI (28-6): A huge part of the Hurricanes’ meteoric rise is tied to how the players have bought into second-year coach Jim Larranaga’s system since he arrived. Johnson accepted a lesser role and Scott gave up the point-guard duties to Shane Larkin, who transformed the team and won ACC Player of the Year honors this season as a sophomore. Scott scored 21 points against Pacific, Johnson grabbed 10 rebounds and Larkin recorded nine assists. “One of the things as a coach that you want to be able to do is trust your players, especially your point guard,” Larranaga said. “And since the very first day I saw Shane Larkin play, I thought he was great. And he’s only gotten better at making decisions, at developing his skills and developing his role as a leader.” Larkin averages 14.4 points and 4.6 assists, with Scott (13.5) and senior forward Kenny Kadji (13.1) also scoring in double digits.
ABOUT ILLINOIS (23-12): The Illini are a streaky squad that often goes through feast or famine stretches. That includes shooting the basketball as Illinois missed its first 14 second-half shots against Colorado and went 3-for-22 in the half. Senior guards Brandon Paul (team-best 16.6 scoring average) and D.J. Richardson (12.5) aren’t immune to rough patches. “We’re mature players,” Richardson said. “We have been in college for four years. We have been through ups and downs throughout our careers. We are shooters. We both can shoot. We’re going to keep shooting even if they don’t fall.”
TRENDS:
* Over is 7-0 in Hurricanes’ last seven NCAA Tournament games.
* Fighting Illini are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.
* Hurricanes are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
TIP-INS
1. Illinois won the lone previous meeting, 86-78 during the 1968-69 season.
2. Kadji has eight double-doubles this season.
3. Paul has led the Illini in scoring 22 times this season and 40 occasions in his career.Comment
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West Regional: Day 4 NCAAB Betting Preview
(13) La Salle Explorers vs. (12) Ole Miss Rebels (-3, 143)
Mississippi and La Salle have historically enjoyed their stays in Kansas City, Mo. during the NCAA Tournament and did nothing to dispel that with a pair of second-round upset victories on Friday. One of those teams will add to its success in the city on Sunday when they meet in the third round of the West Regional. The 12th-seeded Rebels collected the program’s fourth victory in the “Big Dance” when they stunned Big Ten power Wisconsin, improving to 3-0 in NCAA Tournament games played in Kansas City.
The fifth-seeded Explorers are also 3-0 all-time during NCAA Tournament play in Kansas City, where they won the school’s only national championship in 1954. La Salle picked up its second tournament win in the same season for the first time since 1955 after it held off Kansas State in dramatic fashion, less than 48 hours after securing a first-round victory over Boise State in Dayton, Ohio. The winner of this contest will meet either Gonzaga or Wichita State in a Sweet 16 matchup in Los Angeles.
TV: 7:40 p.m. ET, truTV
ABOUT LA SALLE (23-9): The hot shooting that served the Explorers so well against the Broncos (season-high 63.3 percent) completely fell apart over the final 20 minutes Friday. La Salle shot 3-for-18 (16.7 percent) and scored 19 points against the Wildcats in the second half after shooting 58.1 percent and posting 44 points in the first half. However, the much-maligned La Salle defense – which allowed its opponents to shoot an Atlantic 10-high 45.6 percent – forced Kansas State to miss its final eight field-goal attempts. After scoring 12 combined points in losses to Saint Louis and Butler, leading scorer Ramon Galloway (17.1 points) is averaging 20 points through two NCAA Tournament games.
ABOUT MISSISSIPPI (27-8): Marshall Henderson – the leading scorer in the SEC – missed 12 of his first 13 shots against the Badgers, but outscored Wisconsin by himself 17-10 over the final 11:25. "He made that first shot and I celebrated," coach Andy Kennedy said following the game. "As long as he's taking shots within our offense, our guys understand that. We were getting him looks. Then once he makes one or two, we keep feeding him." The Rebels figure to enjoy a significant advantage in the front court against the undersized Explorers. Reginald Bucker – a 6-9, 235-pound forward – had five blocks against Wisconsin while 6-7, 240-pound Murphy Holloway has 13 double-doubles and led the SEC in rebounding.
TRENDS:
* Rebels are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in Rebels’ last five overall.
* Explorers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six Sunday games.
TIP-INS
1. Mississippi will set a single-season school record for victories with a win on Sunday.
2. La Salle’s 23 victories are its most since going 30-2 during the 1989-90 season.
3. Twelve-seeds are 8-2 against No. 13 seeds all-time in the NCAA Tournament.
(10) Iowa State Cyclones vs. (2) Ohio State Buckeyes (-7, 141)
Ohio State managed to avoid any of the pitfalls that has plagued the top seeds in its second-round game on Friday. The second-seeded Buckeyes now look to advance to the Sweet 16 when they face Iowa State in the third round of the NCAA Tournament West Regional at Dayton on Sunday. The Buckeyes have failed to make it out of Dayton in their two previous NCAA appearances, however, going 1-2 overall.
Seeded 10th, Iowa State posted a convincing win over Notre Dame in its tourney opener. The Cyclones' defense put the game away late in the first half forcing 14 turnovers before the break on the way to a surprisingly easy win. Iowa State hopes its powerhouse offense, ranked fourth in the nation in scoring, is on track for a long run in the tourney.
TV: 12:15 p.m., ET, CBS
ABOUT OHIO STATE (27-7): Court general and defensive wizard Aaron Craft did the job on Iona's Lamont 'Momo' Jones in the opener. Jones, who entered the game third in the nation in scoring, was limited to nine points on 3-of-14 shooting as the Buckeyes rolled 95-70. Craft had a season-high six steals. Ohio State has now won nine straight games, four of them coming against ranked teams. "We have a lot of confidence," said Sam Thompson, who scored a career-high 20 points against the Gaels "We know that if we come out and do the things we're supposed to do on both sides of the ball, we could beat any team in the country." Ohio State didn't score over 74 points in any conference game this season but relished the frantic pace of Iona to scored a season high.
ABOUT IOWA STATE (23-11): The Cyclones have reached the third round for the second straight year under coach Fred Hoiberg. Last year Iowa State was bounced by eventual national champion Kentucky in the third round. The Cyclones used a balanced attack against Notre Dame getting a team-high nine points in the first half from Big 12 newcomer of the year Will Clyburn in the first half. Clyburn didn't score after the break but he didn't need to. Iowa State hit 12 of its first 14 shots in the second half and eventually built a 27-point lead. The Cyclones hit nine 3-pointers in the contest, one under their season average of 10.
TRENDS:
* Buckeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Over is 8-0 in Cyclones’ last eight vs. Big Ten foes.
* Over is 5-1 in Buckeyes’ last six NCAA Tournament games.
TIP-INS
1. Ohio State is 8-7 against RPI Top 50 teams. Iowa State is 45th in the RPI.
2. The Buckeyes have advanced to three straight Sweet 16's.
3. Iowa State has four transfers on its new-look roster. And Georges Niang, who scored 19 points against ND, is a freshman.Comment
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Midwest Regional: Creighton vs. Duke Betting Preview
(7) Creighton Bluejays vs. (2) Duke Blue Devils (-5, 144)
Led by sharp-shooting Seth Curry, second-seeded Duke looks to take another step toward a possible fifth national title when it meets upstart Creighton on Sunday in the third round of the NCAA Tournament Midwest Regional at Philadelphia. The Blue Devils shrugged off a pesky Albany team in their tourney opener. A year ago Duke was also seeded second but lost its first tournament game to 15th-seeded Lehigh.
The seventh-seeded Bluejays got 27 points and 11 rebounds from junior All-American Doug McDermott and put the game away at the free-throw line to fend off Cincinnati in their opener on Friday. McDermott, a highly-touted NBA prospect, may turn pro after the season but he'll have at least one more collegiate game to enhance his resume. Creighton has won six straight and is the best-shooting team in the country.
ABOUT DUKE (28-5): The Blue Devils' title chances were given a major boost when senior forward Ryan Kelly returned from a foot injury for the final games of the season. At 6-11 and armed with a strong outside game, Kelly - part of Duke's 2010 national championship team - is a nightmarish matchup. But it was stalwarts Curry and Mason Plumlee who carried the Blue Devils past Albany. The tandem combined for 49 points on a spectacular 19-of-25 shooting as the Blue Devils atoned for last year's early exit. "Plumlee did the best Kareem Abdul-Jabbar imitation I've seen in a long time," Albany coach Will Brown said. "He hit three sky hooks. I haven't even seen somebody attempt that shot in my 12 years at Albany, and he hit three of them." Coach Mike Krzyzewski has won an NCAA Tournament-record 80 games.
ABOUT CREIGHTON (28-7): The Bluejays finished the first half of Friday's second-round game on a 6-0 run and never trailed again on their way to a 67-63 win over Cincinnati. Creighton was inconsistent throughout the contest - it shot 63 percent with 10 turnovers in the first half, then hit just 7-of-23 shots in the second half but converted 9-of-10 free throws in the final two minutes to prevail. The Bluejays also reached the third round of last year's tournament but were eliminated by North Carolina. Creighton has won tournament games in consecutive years for the first time in school history.
TRENDS:
* Bluejays are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games.
* Bluejays are 6-0 ATS in their last six neutral site games.
* Under is 4-1 in Blue Devils’ last five non-conference games.
TIP-INS
1. Albany shot 36.5 percent in its loss to Duke but was 9-for-15 from 3-point range, the best by far of any Duke opponent this season.
2. McDermott broke his own school scoring record for the season with 803 points.
3. This is the first meeting between the schools.Comment
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NCAA Betting Mismatches: Sunday's Round of 32
Finding a chink in the oddsmakers’ armor is tough come tournament time. But we peel back some of Sunday’s Round of 32 matchups, looking for some underlying mismatches that could make or break your college basketball bets this March.
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Florida Gators (-8.5, 122.5)
Golden Gophers’ aggressive attack vs. Gators’ passive offense
Minnesota doesn’t shy away from contact and will be looking to attack Florida’s superior frontcourt when these teams tangle in the Round of 32. The Golden Gophers rank 40th in the land in free throws attempted per game (22.5) and draw an average of 19.2 fouls per game.
The Gators need to keep their big men Patric Young and Erik Murphy on the floor if they want to avoid an upset. Florida doesn’t have the same knack for getting to the line, drawing just 15.7 fouls per game (320th) and shooting only 16.1 freebies per game. This spread and total could be decided from the stripe Sunday.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Miami Hurricanes (-6.5, 128.5)
Illini’s bean poles vs. Hurricanes’ girth
The Hurricanes catch a lot of flak for their age but the fact of the matter is Miami is “man strong”. That’s a big difference maker in college sports when playing against teenage kids. Illinois has some height, with big men like 6-foot-11 shot swatter Nnanna Egwu, but there’s not much meat on those bones. They've been bullied by bigger, badder teams this season.
The Canes can push around most teams, which is why they dominate the glass and score a ton of second-chance points. Miami’s bruiser Kenny Kadji is a beast on the blocks and should go to work against a weaker Illini frontcourt Sunday.
La Salle Explorers vs. Mississippi Rebels (-3, 144)
Explorers’ hot shooting vs. Rebels’ shot blockers
La Salle has shocked its way to the Round of 32 thanks to red-hot shooting, knocking down 53 percent of their field goals (52 for 98) including 46 percent (18 for 39) from beyond the arc. The Explorers, however, won’t have a chance to get comfortable from outside with Ole Miss’ SWAT team hounding them.
The Rebels’ defense has improved drastically during the postseason. They’ve allowed only 55.75 points during their SEC title run and opening NCAA win over Wisconsin. A huge part of that is Mississippi’s ability to block and change shots. Ole Miss ranked 20th in the country in blocks (5.1) and sent six shots away versus the Badgers – five of those from forward Reginald Buckner. La Salle’s shooting touch will be tested with the Rebels constantly getting a hand in the face.Comment
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Low - Scoring Round of 64 Pleasing Under Bettors
Scoring is down early in this year’s NCAA Tournament. Really down.
Teams scored an average of 64.5 points per game in the second round – the lowest-scoring Round of 64 since the shot clock arrived in 1986, according to ESPN Stats and Info.
That resulted in a combined 13-19 over/under mark in the second round.
Here is an O/U breakdown by region:
Midwest 3-5 O/U
South 3-5 O/U
West 4-4 O/U
East 3-5 O/U
The under trend has been reversed so far in the Round of 32. Saturday's completed games as of 11:30 p.m. ET have a combined 4-3 O/U mark (Syracuse/Cal) in progress.Comment
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Spurs at Rockets: What Bettors Need to Know
San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets (+1, 213)
Tony Parker excelled in his first game back and the San Antonio Spurs attempt to complete a four-game sweep of Houston when they visit the Rockets on Sunday. Parker had 22 points in Friday’s overtime victory over the Utah Jazz after missing the previous eight with an ankle injury. The victory allowed the Spurs to maintain their 2 1/2-game lead over the Oklahoma City Thunder in the battle for the top spot in the Western Conference.
Houston is 4-1 on a seven-game homestand and entering a stretch in which it plays the Spurs, Indiana Pacers, Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Clippers to complete the month. “These next four are going to really test us,” point guard Jeremy Lin said after Friday’s rout of the Cleveland Cavaliers. “We’re going to play really, really good teams. This is going to be it. This could make or break it for us so we realize that.” The Rockets can improve to a season-high eight games above .500 by beating the Spurs. San Antonio enters with a four-game winning streak and has averaged 123.3 points in winning the first three meetings with Houston.
TV: 7 p.m. ET, Fox Sports Southwest (San Antonio), Comcast SportsNet Houston
ABOUT THE SPURS (53-16): Parker played nearly 37 minutes in his first outing since March 1. He was tentative early but was at the top of his game in overtime when he scored six of San Antonio’s 14 points. “Tony was a little bit shy in the first half,” Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said afterward. “He was just trying to feel his way a little bit. The game got tight at the end in regulation and then in overtime, and he was Tony Parker. Like I said, up until the time he got hurt, there wasn’t a point guard in the league playing better than Tony Parker.” Forward Tim Duncan had 19 points and 16 rebounds against Utah and moved into 13th-place on the all-time rebounding list with 13,113, surpassing Shaquille O’Neal (13,099). Duncan is averaging 25.5 points and 15 rebounds over the last four games.
ABOUT THE ROCKETS (38-31): Guard James Harden scored 20 points against Cleveland and has tallied 20 or more in 24 of his last 26 outings. Harden is averaging 31 points in two games against the Spurs this season. He missed one of the matchups with an ankle injury. Lin matched his career high with 38 points in the game Harden was sidelined. Lin scored a season-low four points against the Cavaliers after averaging 23 over his previous three outings. Center Omer Asik has grabbed 10 or more rebounds in 22 of the last 24 games. He had 13 points and 11 boards against Cleveland.
TRENDS:
* Spurs are 6-0 ATS in their last six Sunday games.
* Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Sunday games.
* Under is 5-0 in Rockets’ last five overall.
* Spurs are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
BUZZER BEATERS
1. San Antonio has won the last four meetings.
2. Houston is 18-3 when scoring 115 or more points this season.
3. Duncan has recorded 38 double-doubles in 59 career regular-season games against the Rockets.Comment
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HANDICAPPING KINGS
JIMMY
1* - [712] Dallas Mavericks -6.5 -110 vs Utah Jazz
1* - [11] Detroit Red Wings UNDER 5.5 -130 vs Anaheim Ducks
1* - [730] Miami Florida -6.5 -109 vs Illinois
1* - [625] Santa Clara +6.5 -110 vs PurdueComment
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Mighty Quinn
Mighty hit with Michigan State (-5 1/2) Saturday.
Sunday it’s Indiana. The deficit is 65 sirignanos.Comment
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NBA
Hot Teams
-- Heat won its last 25 games (2-6 last eught HF).
-- San Antonio won its last four games (1-4 last five AF). Rockets won four of last five games (2-2 HU).
-- Trailblazers won four of their last six games (5-1-1 last seven AU). Thunder won seven of last ten games (6-2 last eight HF).
-- Dallas won seven of last ten games (3-1 last four HF).
-- Kings won four of last five home games (7-5 last 12 at home).
-- Nets won six of last nine games (6-5 as AF).
Cold Teams
-- Milwaukee lost five of its last seven games (2-9 last 11 HF). Hawks lost five of last six road games (!-3 last four AU).
-- Bobcats lost their last seven road games (0-7 last seven AU).
-- Bulls lost six of their last nine games (1-5 last six road games), and so has Minnesota (won three of last four at home). .
-- Jazz lost four of last five games (5-4 last nine AU).
-- 76ers lost eight of last 11 games (5-10 last 15 AU).
-- Suns lost six of their last seven games (3-6 last nine HU).
Totals
-- Five of last seven Atlanta road games stayed under total.
-- Three of last four Charlotte games went over the total. Five of last seven Miami games stayed under.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Chicago games.
-- Six of Spurs' last nine games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-1-2 in last eight Oklahoma City games.
-- Five of last six Utah games stayed under the total; last three Dallas games went over.
-- Five of last six Sactamento home games went over the total.
-- Last six Brooklyn games went over the total.
Back-to-backs
-- Charlotte is 0-8 vs spread last eight times they played night before.
-- Chicago covered last four times it played night before.
-- Sacramento covered three of last four times they played nite before.
-- Brooklyn covered six of last seven if it played night before.Comment
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