3-26-13

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See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN

Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Lookahead spot

The Miami Heat take their 26-game winning streak on the road this week, traveling to Orlando, Chicago, New Orleans and San Antonio to round out the month. Obviously, the big game on the slate is versus the Spurs on March 31. Not only could this be the end of Miami’s incredible run but the game also serves as a possible finals preview, with both clubs boasting the best overall record in their respective conference.

But, before that showdown in San Antonio, the Heat make a stop in the Big Easy. New Orleans is actually playing well heading into this week. The Hornets are 2-1 SU and ATS in the first three games of a seven-game homestand which has them hosting Denver, the L.A. Clippers, Miami and Cleveland before the end of March. The Bugs could catch Miami - which is just 1-3 ATS in its last four outings – looking ahead to the Spurs.

Letdown spot

Florida Gulf Coast is the darling of the NCAA tournament, and rightfully so. The Eagles are the first No. 15 seed to advance to the Sweet 16 after shocking Georgetown and San Diego State in their opening two games of the tournament. They were able to surprise their opponents with their athletic brand of basketball on short notice but won’t have that luxury when they take on state rival Florida in Arlington Friday.

The four-day layoff between rounds gives UF head coach Billy Donovan – a defensive mastermind - plenty of time to dissect FGCU’s game plan. Not only that, but the break puts any momentum the Eagles had on ice. The media attention could be more than Andy Enfield’s kids – and wife – can handle and could leave FGCU fat and happy just to be playing in the second week of the tournament. I’m sure the Gators are also a bit chapped about the lack of love from locals heading into this improbable Sunshine State matchup.

Scheduling spot

The Los Angeles Kings will find out if they’re still a Stanley Cup-quality club on their current five-game road swing. The Kings, who have played well at home (12-4-0-1), haven’t been able to get the job done in opposing barns, posting just a 5-8-1-0 record heading into Monday’s game in Chicago. Los Angeles has been a homebody this month and has played only three road games since Feb. 23, losing all three.

Following that contest with the Blackhawks, L.A. makes its way to St. Louis, Minnesota, Dallas, and Phoenix – the only team in this stretch not in the playoffs as of Monday. The Kings have one of the best defenses in the NHL, allowing just 2.24 goals against per road game. The trouble is they only score 2.24 goals for away from home and have a winning percent of .370 in one-goal games – fourth lowest in the league.

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Knicks at Celtics: What bettors need to know

New York Knicks at Boston Celtics (-3, 190)

Just over a week ago the Boston Celtics were likely entertaining thoughts of surpassing the New York Knicks atop the Atlantic Division. How things have changed. The Celtics have lost four straight while the once-struggling Knicks have won four in a row, taking some of the drama from their meeting Tuesday night at TD Garden. Further sapping the intrigue is the fact that Boston will be without All-Star forward Kevin Garnett as he battles a left ankle injury.

While Boston has its share of injury concerns, New York's relative return to health has reversed its fortunes and helped solidify the club's hold on the division lead. Carmelo Anthony has averaged 28.7 points in three games since returning from a knee ailment and fellow All-Star Tyson Chandler may return from a neck injury when the team gets to Boston, if not soon thereafter. Chandler has missed six straight games, including the Knicks' 110-84 rout of Toronto at home on Saturday.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE KNICKS (42-26): New York coach Mike Woodson has already said that forward Kenyon Martin will return to the bench once Chandler returns, but that is not an indictment of Martin's play. The veteran had 18 points, seven rebounds and a pair of blocks in the win over Toronto and is shooting 77.8 percent (21-for-27) over his last three games. Martin wasn't with the Knicks when they won in Boston on Jan. 24, snapping an 11-game losing streak at TD Garden. New York enters with a two-game lead in the division over Brooklyn and a 6 1/2-game advantage on Boston.

ABOUT THE CELTICS (36-33): While Boston has hit the skids, three of its four losses came on the road, the home game was against the unbeatable Miami Heat and all four came by an average of only 4.3 points. In addition, it showed it can put up a fight when shorthanded. Playing without Garnett and Courtney Lee, who was also out with an ankle injury, the Celtics pushed Memphis to the finish line Saturday before falling 110-106. Jordan Crawford scored 21 of the bench's 44 points. "They were great," coach Doc Rivers said of his reserves. "We basically told them to go in and try to cause havoc, and they did that."

TRENDS:

* Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Celtics are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Celtics’ last four home games.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Boston.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Lee, who has made six of his last eight 3-pointers, is expected to return.

2. Streaky Knicks swingman J.R. Smith shot 3-for-16 in the previous meeting. He shoots 37.8 percent on the road, compared with 43.2 percent at home.

3. The rivals meet for the fourth and final time on Easter Sunday at Madison Square Garden.

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Canadiens at Penguins: What bettors need to know

Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins (-140, 6)

The Pittsburgh Penguins have sailed past the Montreal Canadeins and into first place in the Eastern Conference during their 12-game winning streak. The Canadiens will try to take their revenge when they visit the Penguins on Tuesday. Not content with the winning streak, Pittsburgh has been fortifying its roster with a pair of trades in recent days and hopes to have Brenden Morrow and defenseman Douglas Murray on Tuesday.

Montreal had a seven-game points streak (6-0-1) come to an end with a 2-1 loss to Buffalo on Saturday but has kept its defense in top shape. The Canadiens have not surrendered more than three goals in any of their last eight games and will be trying to shut down a Penguins club that leads the NHL in scoring average. Montreal is kicking off a big two-game road trip in Pittsburgh, with a stop at the Boston Bruins coming up on Wednesday.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, TSN2 (Montreal), ROOT (Pittsburgh), RDS

ABOUT THE CANADIENS (20-6-5): Montreal took a point off the Penguins in one of the more entertaining games of the season - a 7-6 overtime loss at home on March 2. That near miss against coach Michel Therrien’s former team came during a strong offensive stretch for the Canadiens that saw them average 4.4 goals over an eight-game period. They have cooled off over the last four contests, totaling 10 goals, culminating with the 2-1 home loss to the Sabres on Saturday. Each of the last four meetings with Pittsburgh has needed extra time and the Canadiens have come out on top in only one of those matchups. Montreal has allowed at least one goal on the penalty kill in four of the last five games and will be taking on a Penguins team that is near the top of the league on the power play.

ABOUT THE PENGUINS (25-8-0): Morrow was considered one of the big prizes available on the trade market and Pittsburgh swooped in with an offer on Sunday. The former Dallas Stars Captain is expected to join the second line with James Neal and Evgeni Malkin as soon as Malkin returns from an upper-body injury later this week. That will give the Penguins two stacked lines with the Sidney Crosby-Pascal Dupuis- Chris Kunitz unit serving as the top trio. Morrow had totaled 11 points (six goals) in 29 games with the Stars but has experience playing alongside Neal with the Stars and Crosby on Team Canada at the 2010 Olympics. Pittsburgh stayed busy with the deal on Monday for Murray, who was picked up from the San Jose Sharks in exchange for a pair of draft picks.

TRENDS:

* Canadiens are 5-0 in their last five road games.
* Penguins are 10-1 in their last 11 vs. Northeast foes.
* Over is 7-1 in Canadiens’ last eight road games.
* Under is 6-0-1 in Penguins’ last seven overall.

OVERTIME

1. The Penguins have eight one-goal wins during their 12-game streak

2. The Canadiens claimed C Jeff Halpern off waivers from the New York Rangers. He could make his debut Tuesday.

3. Pittsburgh D Kris Letang (groin) has missed three straight games. He is day-to-day.

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Where the action is: Early Sweet 16 line moves

Spreads for the NCAA tournament Sweet 16 games are up and action has trickled in at books online and Las Vegas. We take a look at the biggest adjustments on the board as Thursday and Friday draw closer.

Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Miami Hurricanes – Open: -5.5, Move: -6

Miami is quickly becoming the public darling in this tournament and the Hurricanes’ Sweet 16 matchup with Marquette is no exception. Early money is on Miami and books expect that trend to stick until tipoff.

“Unless the sharps come in on the dog, I can't see how this game doesn't close Miami -6 or more,” Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, told Covers. “Marquette has to feel very fortunate to be here winning both of its games by a combined three points.”

Florida Gulf Coast Eagles vs. Florida Gators – Open: -11.5, Move: -13.5

Some markets have bumped this spread all the way to -13.5. Early action on the upstart Eagles was followed by a flood of money from the wiseguys, who think the clock is about to strike midnight on this year’s biggest Cinderella.

“People got a little excited after watching them blow away San Diego State,” Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, told Covers. “But then the pros came back hard on Florida.”

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Arizona Wildcats – Open: +4, Move: +3.5

Sharp money immediately bet the underdog and dropped this spread half a point. Since then, it’s been good two-way money, but books aren’t sure the wiseguys are done with this West Regional semifinal just yet.

“I do believe the sharps are going to line up on this game and take the dog,” says Stewart. “I believe this line closes at Ohio State -3.”

Wichita State Shockers vs. La Salle Explorers – Open: -4, Move: -3.5, Move: -4

With these two lesser known Cinderella squads playing for a spot in the Elite Eight, books aren’t holding out hope for a big handle on this West Regional semifinal.

According to Stoneback at the MGM, the two previous games featuring WSU and La Salle had half the handle of the other Round of 32 games.

Michigan State Spartans vs. Duke Blue Devils – Open: -1, Move: -2

These perennial Sweet 16 programs clash in a battle of big names and should be one of the biggest draws for bettors. CarbonSports.ag debated opening -1.5 or -2 but went Duke -1.5 and instantly took sharp money on the favorite.

“So far, we have even action at that price so I don't see us moving off that number any time soon,” says Stewart.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Kansas Jayhawks – Open: -2.5, Move: -1.5, Move: -2

Early money is convinced Michigan has the firepower to take down the No. 1 seed in the South Regional, and has walked this line down a full point since post. But, Rock Chalk action is starting to show since the adjustment.

“At Kansas -1.5, money started showing on them so we went to -2 and haven't moved off that number,” says Stewart.

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NCAA props: Big Ten favored to produce a winner

The field has been narrowed to 16 in the NCAA tournament and oddsmakers have been busy making conference props.

The Big Ten is still well represented with four teams left in the tourney and is the favored conference. But a Big Ten team hasn’t won the national title since 2000 (Michigan State).

Here are the tourney winning conference odds courtesy of Sports Interaction:

Big Ten (Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State, Michigan) +125

Big East (Marquette, Syracuse, Louisville) +220

ACC (Miami, Duke) +365

SEC (Florida) +600

Big 12 (Kansas) +900

Pac-12 (Arizona, Oregon) +1,000

Missouri Valley (Wichita State) +3,300

Atlantic Sun (Florida Gulf Coast) +10,000

Atlantic 10 (La Salle) +10,000

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NCAA tournament trends: Sweet 16 betting
By MARC LAWRENCE

If you are a player or a coach, there is nothing sweeter this time of the year than being alive in the NCAA tournament. For those teams that survived the opening rounds it’s on to the Sweet 16 and, hopefully, the Elite Eight this weekend.

Here are essential notes and trends of the Sweet 16 teams:

**Stats since 1990.

NCAA SWEET 16 ROUND NOTES

• No. 1 Seeds off BB SU/ATS wins are 18-7 ATS (Louisville)
• No. 2 Seeds are 14-6 ATS vs. opponents off a SU dog win (Florida)
• No. 6 Seeds off a DD ATS win are 1-8 ATS (Arizona)
• Favorites of 9 > pts are 10-4 ATS vs. opp off BB SU/ATS wins (Florida, Louisville)
• Favorites off BB SU wins of 15 > pts are 13-4 ATS (Louisville)
• Underdogs of 11 > pts are 7-2 ATS (Florida Gulf Coast)

NCAA ELITE 8 ROUND NOTES

• No. 1 Seed favs > 7 pts are 1-8 ATS
• No. 2 Seeds are 2-10-1 ATS off a DD ATS win
• No. 3 Seeds are 1-7 ATS
• No. 4 Seeds are 9-1 ATS
• No. 6 Seeds are 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS
• Teams that score 67 < pts are 12-40 SU & 12-39-1 ATS
• Teams that score 85 > pts are 27-7 SU & 24-8-2 ATS
• Teams off BB ATS losses are 5-1 ATS
• Teams with Revenge are 14-4-1 ATS
• Dogs off 3 straight DD wins are 1-4-1 ATS

COACH ME IF YOU CAN

• Florida’s Billy Donovan is 13-4 SU and 12-5 ATS in the NCAA tournament from the Sweet 16 out, including 6-0 SUATS versus .825 or greater opposition.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Providence (-9 1/2) Monday.

Tuesday it’s Northern Iowa. The deficit is 175 sirignanos.

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Polish Prognosticator
Major move on maryland

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NBA

Hot Teams
-- Knicks won last four games, covered last five (3-0 last three AU).
-- Pistons lost ten of last eleven games (3-2 last five HF).
-- Mavericks won eight of last eleven games (3-5 HU). Clippers won three of last four games (4-9 last 13 AF).

Cold Teams
-- Celtics lost their last four games (4-0 last four HF).
-- Minnesota lost five of last seven games (3-1 last four AU).

Totals
-- Five of last six Boston games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Detroit home games went over.
-- Last four Dallas games went over the total.

Back-to-backs
-- None.

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CBB

Maryland won four of last five games; they're 14-1 outside ACC, losing to Kentucky by 3 in season opener, irs only game vs SEC foe. Alabama won its last 12 home games, last losing 53-50 to Tulane Dec 30. Terps last played on Thursday, Bama Saturday afternoon. Crimson Tide gave up an average of 52.8 ppg in its last five games.

Canisius won seven of last nine home games; Griffs are #15 experienced team in country. Evansville won six of last seven games, losing by point to Indiana State in MVC tourney; Purple Aces are 3-9 in last 12 road games, but won last two, at Wright State/Wichita. Four of Canisius' last five games were decided by 4 or less points, or in OT.

East Carolina won six of last eight games; they're 4-3 in last seven away games; Pirates are 16-6 vs teams ranked outside top 100. Loyola lost by 14 at Memphis, its only game vs C-USA opponent; Greyhounds are 8-3 in last 11 games, with all three losses by 5 or less points. Loyola holds opponents to 29.8% behind arc, #17 in country.

Northern Iowa beat Bradley twice this season 84-53/68-65, leading by 27/19 at half; Panthers made 26-52 behind arc in two games. UNI is 9-1 in last ten games, losing only to Denver by 6. Braves lost nine of last ten road/neutral games, with only win 63-62 at UIC in Bracket Buster tilt. Bradley lost its last five visits here by average of 11 points.

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Washington won last three games, outscoring foes 13-3.
-- Penguins won last twelve games, allowing nine goals in last eight. Montreal won six of its last eight games.
-- Sabres won last three games, all by a goal.
-- St Louis won last four home games, allowing five goals.
-- Vancouver won its last four games, allowing five goals. Blue Jackets won seven of their last ten games.

Cold teams
-- Panthers lost eight of their last ten games. Toronto lost seven of last nine.
-- Carolina lost last five games, outscored 17-6. Jets lost three of their last five games.
-- Islanders lost three of their last four games.
-- Lightning lost last three games, scoring seven goals.
-- Flyers lost six of their last eight games. Rangers lost five of last seven.
-- Edmonton lost four of its last five games.
-- Flames lost their last nine road games. Chicago lost its last two home games, allowing eleven goals.

Totals
-- Five of last seven Florida-Toronto games went over the total; six of last seven Florida games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight Winnipeg-Carolina games went over total. Under is 5-0-1 in last six Carolina games.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in Washington's last eight games.
-- Under is 6-0-1 in last seven Pittsburgh games.
-- 13 of last 19 Sabre-Lightning games went over the total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Ranger-Flyer games.
-- Last five St Louis games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Calgary games went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight Columbus-Vancouver games stayed under.

Series records
-- Panthers won five of last six games with Toronto.
-- Jets won five of last seven games with Carolina.
-- Islanders lost eight of last eleven games with Washington.
-- Penguins won four of last five games with Montreal.
-- Visiting team won last four Buffalo-Tampa Bay games.
-- Rangers won ten of last eleven games with Philadelphia.
-- Blues won eight of last nine games with Edmonton.
-- Flames lost their last ten visits to Chicago.
-- Canucks won nine of last eleven games with Columbus.

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DCI College Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

03/26/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 3889-1353 (.742)
ATS: 1888-1912 (.497)
ATS Vary Units: 5243-5560 (.485)
Over/Under: 620-584 (.515)
Over/Under Vary Units: 713-706 (.502)

National Invitation Tournament
Quarterfinals at campus sites
ALABAMA 62, Maryland 60

CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament
Quarterfinals at campus sites
NORTHERN IOWA 70, Bradley 59
EAST CAROLINA 74, Loyola (Md.) 71
Evansville 74, CANISIUS 71

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DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

03/26/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 687-325 (.679)
ATS: 550-488 (.530)
ATS Vary Units: 1382-1210 (.533)
Over/Under: 531-507 (.512)
Over/Under Vary Units: 706-648 (.521)

BOSTON 97, New York 93
DETROIT 99, Minnesota 96
L.A. Clippers vs. DALLAS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

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DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

03/26/13 Predictions

Season: 179-119 (.601)

TORONTO 4, Florida 2
PITTSBURGH 4, Montreal 3
WASHINGTON 4, N.Y. Islanders 2
Winnipeg vs. CAROLINA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
PHILADELPHIA 3, N.Y. Rangers 2
Buffalo vs. TAMPA BAY: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
ST. LOUIS 3, Edmonton 2
CHICAGO 4, Calgary 2
VANCOUVER 3, Columbus 2