3-28-13

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NCAA tournament trends: Betting Sweet 16 returnees
By MARC LAWRENCE

With the 2013 NCAA tournament entering the Sweet 16 round, let’s take a different perspective in analyzing the teams that have arrived. This one pertains specifically to teams that are returning to the Sweet 16 for the second straight year.

All hand of deck

Taking a look at this year’s list of returnees, we find half of last year’s field returning. They include, Florida, Indiana, Kansas, Louisville, Marquette, Michigan State, Ohio State and Syracuse.

According to our database, since 1992, teams making a right-back appearance in the Sweet 16 are 63-43 SU and 48-56-2 ATS in this round of the tourney.

The cutline, however, is often times the pointspread.

That’s confirmed by the fact that favorites of more than six points are 35-3 SU and 23-15 ATS in these games. Priced at anything less (dog or favorite of six or fewer points), they dip drastically to 28-40 SU and 25-41-2 ATS in competitive contests.

This year’s teams making the cut (favored by six or more points) are: Florida and Louisville.

Not quite a 10

Looking at it from a varied perspective, Sweet 16 returnees seem to struggle when arriving off a win of less than 10 points, going just 25-24 SU and 17-30-2 ATS. This year that would include Marquette and Ohio State.

Florida, Kansas, Louisville and Michigan State each appears to be spared by their degree of favoritism.

Note: Indiana and Syracuse face one another.

Seedy development

As expected, the top two seeds fare the best in Sweet 16 games as returnees, going 48-15 SU combined. Against the spread, however, they are a lukewarm 32-31 ATS.

No. 3 seeds have fared the worst, going 5-7 SU and 3-9 ATS as returnees in this round. Not good news for Marquette or Michigan State.

Ironically, the Eagles failed in this same role as small favorites, losing 68-58 as small favorite versus Florida.

Sayanora

When Sweet 16 returnees arrive and are forced to take on top-quality foe with a win percentage of .850 or greater, they spring a major leak, going 7-16 SU and 8-14-1 ATS including 4-14 SU and 4-13-1 ATS in they won fewer than 30 games last season.

If these same guys are facing a foe off a win of 15 or more points they capsize, going 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS.

The life rafts are ready and standing by for Michigan State this Friday.

The bottom line is you can draw your own conclusions, if you like. But make no mistake, when it comes to handicapping teams in the Sweet 16, the winners will likely be the better-qualified teams that have “been there-and-done that”. Or those who know how to keep a ship afloat, if you know what I mean…

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NCAA's biggest betting mismatches: Sweet 16
By JASON LOGAN

Finding a chink in the oddsmakers’ armor is tough come tournament time. But we peel back some of this week’s Sweet 16 matchups, looking for some underlying mismatches that could make or break your college basketball bets this March.

Oregon Ducks vs. Louisville Cardinals (-10, 127.5)

Ducks’ turnover troubles vs. Cardinals’ killer defense

Oregon may not be your conventional Cinderella, having won the Pac-12 title, but the Ducks are definitely going to feel like underdogs if they can't cure their case of the butter fingers against No. 1 Louisville in the Sweet 16. Oregon has been able to get by in the first two games despite turning the ball over 36 times, something that has plagued it all season.

The Ducks cough the ball up 15.1 times per game and now go against a swarming Cardinals defense that forces 18.9 turnovers a game – second most in the nation. Louisville pressured Colorado State to turn the ball over 19 times in the Round of 32 and forced 25 in its first-round win over NC A&T.

Syracuse Orange vs. Indiana Hoosiers (-5.5, 135.5)

Orange’s athletic zone vs. Hoosiers’ rebounding dependency

Syracuse’s 2-3 zone defense has carried the Orange deep into the tournament in past seasons and could give SU one of its biggest wins this Thursday. The Orange will depend on its athletic defense to slow up No. 1 Indiana and its bevy of scorers. Cuse locked down Cal star scorer Allen Crabbe in the Round of 32, holding the Pac-12 Player of the Year to eight points on 3-of-9 shooting.

The Hoosiers didn’t encounter too many zones during Big Ten play and have been able to dominate the boards because of it (38.7 rpg – 19th). Jamming up IU’s glass eaters, like Cody Zeller, will limit the Hoosiers' second-chance looks while pushing Victor Oladipo to the perimeter to deal with Syracuse’s long and athletic guards.

Kansas Jayhawks vs. Michigan Wolverines (+1.5, 137)

Jayhawks veteran Jeff Withey vs. Wolverines’ freshman Mitch McGary

Mitch McGary is going to be a great basketball player. The freshman big has shown flashes of his potential, like Michigan’s win over VCU this past weekend in which he scored 21 points and grabbed 14 rebounds. But those numbers came against a smaller Rams lineup and the Wolverines 6-foot-10 center has struggled against true size this season.

No player in the country plays as big as KU’s fifth-year senior Jeff Withey. The Jayhawks’ 7-foot-2 shot swatter is an impact player on both ends of the floor and makes a career out of taking it to softer frontcourts, like he did versus UNC Sunday. McGary often finds himself in foul trouble against bigger opponents. He was limited with four fouls against Indiana in the season finale and had similar issues versus Illinois’ long frontcourt.

Arizona Wildcats vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (-4, 134)

Wildcats’ western advantage vs. Buckeyes' Big Ten boos

While NCAA tournament games are held at neutral sites, the Staples Center is a home away from home for the Wildcats. Arizona has played there multiple times over the years, especially with the Pac-12 tournament being held in L.A. before moving to Las Vegas this season. The Wildcats played their 2011 Sweet 16 game at Staples Center, beating No. 1 Duke in front of a very pro-Arizona crowd.

“It’s a great feeling to be going back to L.A.,” Wildcats junior guard Jordin Mayes told the Tucson Citizen. “Our fan base is going to be right there with us. We expect it to be like it was in McKale Center.”

Ohio State enjoyed some in-state love in its first two tournament games in Dayton, Ohio but hasn’t traveled this far west all season. In fact, the Buckeyes haven’t been to the Golden State since opening the 2003-04 schedule with road games at San Francisco and San Diego State. I don’t think California sports fans have forgotten about all those Rose Bowl games. Los Angeles is about as far as you get from Big Ten country.

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NCAA tournament East Regional: Semifinal betting previews

Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Miami Hurricanes (-5, 127)

After both survived scares last weekend, the road will end for either third-seeded Marquette or second-seeded Miami when they clash Thursday in the NCAA Tournament round of 16 in Washington, D.C. The Hurricanes continued their charmed season by holding off Illinois 63-59 on Sunday, reaching the Sweet 16 for only the second time. They have never advanced to the Elite Eight, but will have to do so without reserve C Reggie Johnson, who underwent arthroscopic knee surgery Tuesday.

The Golden Eagles are in the Sweet 16 for the third straight year, but they haven't advanced past this point since a Final Four run in 2003. Marquette was fortunate to get out of the round of 64, needing a late rally to fend off upset-minded Davidson 59-58, and the Golden Eagles denied another challenge in a 74-72 win over Butler on Saturday. The teams have split four all-time meetings and are squaring off for the first time since 1989.

TV: 7:15 p.m. ET, CBS

ABOUT MARQUETTE (25-8, 13-15-1 ATS): The Golden Eagles have been forced to rally in the second half of their first two games in the tournament, and junior guard Vander Blue has been the hero in both. Blue made the winning basket in the final seconds against Davidson and poured in 29 points against Butler. "We had two close games - we had a lot of those this year," Blue told reporters. "What we went through earlier this year prepared us." They ought to expect another tight contest in a matchup of defensive-minded teams. Blue and junior forward Jamil Wilson are the only Marquette players averaging double-digit scoring in the tournament.

ABOUT MIAMI (29-6, 21-10-1 ATS): The Hurricanes already have enjoyed what could be described as the best season in school history, winning the ACC regular-season and tournament titles, and they're not ready to send off six seniors yet. "Words can't describe it," forward Julian Gamble told reporters. "It is the first time (in the Sweet 16) for our school since the year 2000. To be going with this group of guys and continue with this dream season of sorts is really hard to put into words right now. We are really excited about the opportunity." Junior Rion Brown helped keep the season going with 21 points against Illinois, as the Hurricanes overcame a tough offensive night from senior Durand Scott. There's a chance Johnson could return if Miami reaches the Final Four.

TRENDS:

* Golden Eagles are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Hurricanes are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 6-2 in Golden Eagles' last eight NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 7-1 in Hurricanes' last eight NCAA Tournament games.

TIP-INS:

1. In five postseason games, Miami's Shane Larkin, Trey McKinney Jones, Scott and Brown all are averaging more than nine points, have hit 10 or more 3-pointers and are shooting better than 80 percent from the foul line.

2. Marquette is 4-6 this season when trailing at halftime, including two wins in the NCAA Tournament. The Golden Eagles are 20-1 when leading at half and 1-1 when tied at the break.

3. The Verizon Center is the same site where Miami coach Jim Larranaga led George Mason to the Final Four in 2006. The Patriots beat Wichita State in the regional semifinals and Connecticut in the regional final in Washington, D.C.

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Syracuse Orange (+5.5, 135.5)

It has been more than a quarter-century since Indiana and Syracuse created one of the most memorable finishes in national championship history. The two basketball powers will meet again in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since – this time in the East Regional semifinals – on Thursday in Washington D.C. In 1987, the Hoosiers’ Keith Smart drained a 16-foot jumper from the left baseline in the final seconds against the Orange, giving Indiana its last NCAA title. The Hoosiers reached their second consecutive Sweet 16 for the first time in school history Sunday after rallying in the final minutes to defeat Temple 58-52.

Like Indiana, the Orange survived their own third-round scare, pulling out a 66-60 victory over California despite 15 missed free throws and a second-half field-goal drought that lasted 12:09. “It was not pretty. Honestly, I don't think I can describe it. It was about as ugly as I think it can get,” Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim said following the game. The winner will face either Miami (Fla.) or Marquette in the Elite Eight on Saturday.

TV: 9:45 p.m. ET, CBS

ABOUT SYRACUSE (28-9, 18-15-0 ATS): Although he did not find out about it until after the game, Michael Carter-Williams’ home in Massachusetts was destroyed by fire Saturday, approximately at the same time the Orange were on the court with the Golden Bears in San Jose, Calif. Syracuse held Pac-12 Player of the Year Allen Crabbe to eight points and nine field-goal attempts – each mark two shy of his season low. The Bears also shot 4-for-21 beyond the arc. Defending the 3-point shot will be pivotal against the Hoosiers, who rank third in the country beyond the arc (40.8 percent) and feature three starters who knock down at least 43 percent of their 3-point attempts.

ABOUT INDIANA (29-6, 17-15-1 ATS): Victor Oladipo was named one of four finalists for the Naismith Award on Sunday and promptly closed out the Hoosiers’ victory over Temple by converting the tiebreaking free throw and a critical insurance 3-pointer with 14 seconds remaining. The Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year will enjoy a homecoming of sorts this week in the nation’s capital, which is a short drive from Oladipo’s hometown of Upper Marlboro, Md. The 58 points against the Owls matched the Hoosiers’ second-lowest output of the season and marked the first time the third-highest scoring team in the country won a game in which they scored fewer than 66 points.

TRENDS:

* Orange are 2-5 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games.
* Hoosiers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four NCAA Tournament games.
* Over is 5-2 in Orange last seven neutral site games.
* Under is 5-2 in Hoosiers last seven overall.

TIP-INS:

1. Indiana is 11-1 all-time as a No. 1 seed, with the resulting .916 winning percentage the best such mark for a top seed in NCAA Tournament history.

2. Boeheim’s 50 NCAA Tournament victories rank fourth all-time.

3. The Hoosiers are the sixth-best shooting team in the country (48.6 percent) while the Orange own the third-best field-goal defense (37.3).

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NCAA tournament West Regional: Semifinal betting previews

Arizona Wildcats vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (-3.5, 134)

The longstanding friendship between Arizona coach Sean Miller and Ohio State coach Thad Matta will be set aside Thursday when the sixth-seeded Wildcats and No. 2 Buckeyes collide in the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 in Los Angeles. Miller and Matta became friends while serving on the Miami (Ohio) staff of Herb Sendek, currently the head coach at Arizona State. Their 12th-seeded RedHawks upset fifth-seeded Arizona in the 1995 NCAA Tournament.

Matta later hired Miller as his assistant at Xavier, where Miller took over after Matta left for Ohio State in 2004. They met on opposite ends of the floor once before, in the second round of the 2007 NCAA Tournament, with the top-seeded Buckeyes prevailing in overtime against No. 9 Xavier. This matchup looks to be similarly close, as Ohio State enters on a 10-game winning streak but could be vulnerable against Arizona’s size. Amir Williams, a 6-11 sophomore center, is the only player taller than 6-8 for the Buckeyes, but he's been limited to 16.5 minutes. The Wildcats, meanwhile, feature 7-foot freshman center Kaleb Tarczewski in the starting lineup with freshmen forwards Grant Jerrett (6-10) and Brandon Ashley (6-8) off the bench.

TV: 7:47 p.m. ET, TBS.

ABOUT ARIZONA (27-7, 16-16-0 ATS): Mark Lyons has already accomplished something no other player in NCAA history done, advancing to two straight Sweet 16s with different teams. Lyons, a 6-1 senior point guard, led Xavier to the quarterfinals last season before moving to Arizona in the offseason as a graduate transfer. He also helped the Musketeers to the Sweet 16 as a freshman before they lost in double overtime to Kansas State. Lyons has been playing his best basketball of the season lately. He’s averaging 25 points through the first two tournament games and has turned the ball over twice in each of the last four games.

ABOUT OHIO STATE (28-7, 20-12-1 ATS): Aaron Craft missed three free throws in the final 4:40 of Sunday’s game against 10th-seeded Iowa State but saved the Buckeyes by drawing a controversial charge with 1:41 remaining and then sinking a 3-pointer with one second left in the 78-75 victory. His defense on Lyons will be key in the West Regional semifinal. Some opposing coaches consider Craft the best defensive guard in the country. “You can’t simulate the defensive pressure of Craft in practice. He’s like having two guys on you,” Northern Kentucky coach Dave Bezold said after a loss to the Buckeyes back in December.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games.
* Buckeyes are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral-site games.
* Under is 22-10-1 in Wildcats' last 33 overall.
* Under is 7-3 in Buckeyes' last 10 overall.

TIP-INS:

1. Ohio State forward Deshaun Thomas is averaging 23 points through the first two tournament games after leading all players in scoring at last season’s NCAA Tournament (19.2).

2. Ohio State and Arizona have met once previously, a 90-47 victory by the Buckeyes during the 1972-73 season.

3. With his next appearance, Arizona State senior forward Solomon Hill will tie the school record for most games played (139). Kyle Fogg set the current mark from 2008-12.

La Salle Explorers vs. Wichita State Shockers (-4, 135.5)

Either Wichita State or La Salle will be playing for a spot in the Final Four. The ninth-seeded Shockers and 13th-seeded Explorers are unlikely opponents in Thursday’s Sweet 16 contest in Los Angeles and the winner advances to Saturday’s West Regional final. Wichita State shocked top-seeded Gonzaga in the round of 32, while La Salle won three days in five games and advanced to the Sweet 16 with a 76-74 victory over Mississippi.

Explorers coach John Giannini refuses to buy into the notion that the Explorers are a “Cinderella” after their unlikely string of victories that began with wins over Boise State and Kansas State. “What people label us, we really try not to acknowledge it,” Giannini said. Wichita State routed Pittsburgh before posting the 76-70 victory over the Bulldogs, and the Shockers are very much aware that few people expected them to reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2006. “You hear stuff and people come up to you saying, ‘What do you think about 70 percent of America has you losing the first game?’” junior forward Cleanthony Early said. “You have to avoid everyone’s opinion and go out there and play hard.”

TV: 10:17 p.m. ET, TBS

ABOUT WICHITA STATE (28-8, 17-14-2 ATS): Freshman guard Ron Baker joined Early in having a big game in the slaying of Gonzaga. Both players scored 16 points and made four 3-pointers but Baker’s effort stood out for two reasons – it fell two points shy of his career-best output and it was only his fifth game since returning from a foot injury that sidelined him for 21 games. “Those 21 games were a long 21 games, I’ll just say that,” said Baker, who is averaging 8.3 points in 15 games. Early averages a team-best 13.9 points, senior forward Carl Hall averages 12.6 points and a team-high 6.9 rebounds and senior guard Malcolm Armstead contributes 10.6 points and a team-best four assists.

ABOUT LA SALLE (24-9, 15-12-2 ATS): Fatigue hasn’t yet been an issue for the Explorers despite the fact the team had to travel to Kansas City after winning their first outing in Dayton, Ohio. “At this point, you’re too young to be getting tired,” junior guard Tyreek Duren said. “You don’t really have time to get tired at this point. You wake up and win games.” Duren had 19 points against Ole Miss and ranks second on the squad in scoring at 14.5 points. Senior guard Ramon Galloway scored 24 points against the Rebels and averages a team-best 17.4 points. Junior guard Tyrone Garland averages 12.8 points and scored 17 against Ole Miss, including the game-winning basket on a driving shot with two seconds left.

TRENDS:

* Explorers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
* Shockers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
* Over is 7-3 in Explorers' last 10 overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Shockers' last 6 overall.

TIP-INS:

1. Wichita State last advanced to a regional final in 1981. La Salle played in back-to-back title games in 1954-55 and won the 1954 championship game.

2. Five Explorers have 30 or more steals, led by Galloway (63) and Duren (56).

3. The Shockers made 14 3-pointers in the upset of Gonzaga, tying for second-most in school history.

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Dave Essler

3* Arizona
2* Marquette

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Goodfella

3* Arizona

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Jimmy Boyd

3*(CBB) Indiana -5

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JACK JONES

College Basketball Premium Picks

-= TOP PLAY =-

NCAA-B | Mar 28 '13 (7:15p) MARQUETTE vs MIAMI FLORIDA

MIAMI FLORIDA -5-110 at BMaker

20* Sweet 16 Friday No-Doubt Rout on Miami -5 The Miami Hurricanes should be a much heavier favorite over the Marquette Golden Eagles tonight. They got the test they needed from Illinois in the Round of 32, and made all the big plays down the stretch to get through. I full expect the Hurricanes to roll to a blowout victory over a Marquette team that doesn't even deserve to be in the Sweet 16. In fact, it has won its first two games against Davidson (59-58) and Butler (74-72) by a combined 3 points. The Golden Eagles' luck runs out in the Sweet 16. Miami has been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. That's evident by the fact that it is 21-8 ATS in all lined games this year. Despite winning the ACC regular season and tournament titles, this team is still undervalued. The Hurricanes are 43-18-1 ATS in their last 62 non-conference games. Miami is 43-19-4 ATS in its last 66 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Golden Eagles are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Marquette is 3-11 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. The Hurricanes are 15-3 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season. Bet Miami Thursday.

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Goldsheet
★★★KEY RELEASES★★★
ARIZONA by 6 over Ohio State (Thursday, March 28)

MILWAUKEE by 15 over LA Lakers (Thursday, March 28)


THE GOLDSHEET

Syracuse 68 - Indiana 65—They meet again! We’re talking aboutSyracuse and Indiana, who 26 years ago engaged in one of the more compelling
finals in NCAA history at the Superdome in New Orleans, when Hoosier G (and
current NBA Sacto Kings HC) Keith Smart won Bob Knight’s third and final title
with a baseline jumper in the final seconds. Still around from ‘87 on the
Syracuse sidelines is HC Jim Boeheim, who had to wait sixteen years for
another chance at a national crown that a Carmelo Anthony-led team would
finally deliver to the ’Cuse in 2003. Now, Boeheim can make further amends for
that bitter ‘87 title loss by avenging that defeat vs. IU, although old pal Knight is
long gone from the Hoosier bench (we’re not sure The General even steps foot
in the state any longer). Another connection to the ‘87 title game is Orange G
Brandon Triche, whose uncle Howard missed a crucial free throw to set the
stage for Smart’s dramatic game-winner 26 years ago. We’re sure Uncle
Howard, who works and lives in the Syracuse area these days, is just as eager
as Boeheim to see the Orange earn that payback from more than a quartercentury
ago.
While the Big Ten entries (such as IU), Louisville, and Florida Gulf Coast
stole many of the headlines during the sub-regional weekend, the ‘Cuse quietly
went about its business in San Jose, dismantling an overmatched Montana side
in a game during which the nation’s TV sets likely tuned out after 10 or so
minutes, then downing regional preference Cal in workmanlike fashion. After
stumbling in February (losing SU 6 of 10 at one point), Boeheim’s team appears
to have regained its equilibrium, beginning in the Big East Tourney and
continuing through last weekend, with only one shaky stretch (the last ten
minutes of the Big East finale vs. Louisville) the past couple of weeks. After
making lineup adjustments due to the January eligibility-related suspension of
sparkplug swingman James Southerland, then readjusting again when
Southerland regained eligibility in early February, the Orange finally seem to
have regained their footing, with Triche and F C.J. Fair, in addition to
Southerland, leading the team in scoring in recent games.
Meanwhile, this matchup vs. the Orange appears to offer some substantial
concern for Indiana, especially since the Hoosiers were not able to speed up the
pace in the Round of 32 vs. Temple, with the Philly boys able to dictate tempo
and place themselves on the cusp of a major upset before a game-ending 10-
0 spurt by IU that reversed the scoreline in the final minutes. Indiana will not be
able to speed the tempo any better against the long arms of the Jim Boeheim
zone, which should effectively slow the Hoosiers and put lots of pressure on F
Christian Watford (48% triples) and G Jordan “Jerry Quarry” (uncanny
resemblance there for old boxing fans) Hulls, who hits 46% from tripleville, but
might not get the same number of “kick-outs” for open looks vs. the Boeheim
zone that he usually does when IU is at its free-wheeling best. Tom Crean’s
defense has also not been airtight this season, especially since he has to
camouflage the smallish Hulls and backcourt mate 6-0 frosh Yogi Ferrell as
much as possible on the stop end. and after having to play clear across the
country last week, expect the ‘Cuse to be a lot more comfortable in familiar Big
East territory at the Verizon Center, where the Orange faced Georgetown a few
weeks ago.
Six regular-season losses and last week’s narrow escape vs. Temple
confirm that this IU edition is hardly unbeatable. A mild upset authored by the
clever Boeheim would be no surprise.


Miami-Fla. 68 - Marquette 58—Maybe it‘s just us, but there’s something
about watching Marquette play that makes us want to tune into the NBC Sports
Network to watch the next NHL game on the tube. We suggest CBS bring Mike
Emrick and El Olczyk into the broadcast booth, and let Pierre McGuire report
from the sidelines, for the Golden Eagles games that more often resemble
hockey, with Marquette players bumping and grinding into the opposition, or
careening into the paint in awkward odd-man rushes into the attack end for
many “shots on goal” from point-blank range or for long-range bombs from the
“blue line”...er, three-point arc.
But the Golden Eagles are nothing if not relentless under shaved-headed,
sweat-soaked HC Buzz Williams, whose chipmunk-like appearance belies a
fiery competitive streak that Buzz has instilled within his never-say-die troops.
Who, by the way, found the resolve to manufacture enough points to rally from
a late 7-point deficit to beat Davidson at the top of the sub-regional round (using
three consecutive triples, after missing 11 of their first 12 beyond the arc, as a
precursor to a last-second Wildcat turnover and game-winning layup by G
Vander Blue with one second to play) before surviving a war of attrition with
Butler in the Round of 32. The irrepressible Blue, with 45 points last weekend,
has emerged as an unlikely star in March proceedings.
Marquette, however, has some limitations offensively,partly caused by
season-long spotty three-point shooting (still only 29.9% this season and a very
so-so 9 for 27 in the Dance), which contributes to the stop/start appearance of
its often tortured offensive sets. Now, the Golden Eagles are facing their most
difficult Big Dance defensive challenge yet in Jim Larranaga’s Miami, which
owns plenty of size and athleticism on the perimeter and has allowed only 59
ppg this season. Larranaga’s pet scramble defense threatens to turn this
matchup into something more unsightly than Marquette’s normal course of
affairs, although the Hurricanes must make sure to work through screens and
not expose some of their less-mobile bigs (such as Kenny Kadji) on defensive
switches against Blue or another of the Golden Eagles Gs, who will look to blow
by Kadji, as did Brandon Paul and the Illinois Gs on occasion in last Sunday’s
Round of 32 narrow escape for the Canes vs. the Illini.
Larranaga’s accomplished backcourt of 6-5 types Durand Scott and Trey
McKinney-Jones and star soph PG Shane Larkin (14 ppg), however, should be
able to deal with Williams’ frenetic Golden Eagle defense, and Marquette has no
matchup for the versatile Kadji, who loves to float to the perimeter and thus
renders paint-locked 6-11 Golden Eagle counterpart Chris Otule as unlikely to
draw that defensive assignment. In conclusion, we think there are more ways
for Miami to manufacture points (especially with 6-6 swingman Rion Brown now
another viable option after his 21-point outburst Sunday vs. the Illini). With all
due respect to coach Williams, a sharper-edged Marquette could advance no
further than the Sweet 16 a year ago. Remember, too, that “Coach L” has a bit
of experience in the Sweet 16 at this Verizon Center site, where his George
Mason side qualified for an unlikely Final Four trip seven years ago.




★★★KEY RELEASE★★★
★★★Arizona 73 - Ohio State 67—Although appearing at times to be a
modern-day hoops equivalent of long-ago Montreal Canadiens enforcer John
Ferguson (bad haircut and all) by discouraging the rough play on morestreamlined
teammates, hardscrabble G Aaron Craft can still win games for
Ohio State, as he did last Sunday vs. Iowa State. But that was not an easy ride
for the Buckeyes, as the Cyclones seemed to have them beaten in Dayton.
Before some of Craft’s last-minute heroics, the OSU on-court pilot did not have
an especially memorable game.
We mention Craft prominently because we expect he might have to deliver
again in order for the Buckeyes to advance. That’s because Arizona would
seem to have a proper matchup on top OSU scoring threat Deshaun Thomas
(19.7 ppg) in the form of Solomon Hill, a similarly-sized 6-7 who can not only
look Thomas in the eye, but also mark him across the attack zone as well.
Continuing that defensive theme, the Cats also would appear to own an elixir for
the tough-as-nails Craft in G Nick Johnson, who has the size to deal with Craft’s
muscle tactics and to potentially fluster OSU’s floor general, whose erratic
offense (despite that winning three-pointer vs. ISU) has been a sore point for the
Columbus support base this term.
Indeed, we do not believe the Buckeyes are built to go as far as they did in
the Dance last season (when their ride ended at the Final Four) because they
lack the post scoring presence that 6-9, 265-lb. Jared Sullinger provided on the
blocks a year ago. With other top scoring threat William Buford also having
departed, Thomas has been forced to handle the go-to scoring duties. Which
he has assumed rather seamlessly, scoring in double digits in every game. But
he remains the only reliable OSU scoring threat. And Hill’s presence on the stop
end likely reduces that chance of a Thomas offensive explosion, which we
believe OSU might need to advance.
Arizona, meanwhile, seems to possess a sharper edge on attack with
Xavier transfer G Mark Lyons (15.4 ppg; 50 points in two games during the subregional
weekend at Salt Lake City) detonating the transition game, while the
versatile Hill (13.3 ppg) is going to force OSU counterpart Thomas to expend
considerable energy on defense as well. With frosh frontliners 6-8 Brendan
Ashley & 7-0 Kaleb Tarczewski making consistent complementary
contributions, prefer the balance and flexibility at HC Sean Miller’s disposal.
Although the Bucks enter on a 10-game win streak, they will be in hostile
Pac-12 territory, as Arizona fans will likely descend upon L.A.’s Staples Center
in the same numbers they did when turning the Anaheim Honda Center into
“McKale Center West” in the regionals two years ago. And the Wildcats, well
versed in close calls this season, will not lack for confidence in the final minutes
of an expected nailbiter.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★

La Salle 67 - Wichita State 65—They haven’t been this excited at La Salle
since the days of Kenny Durrett, Fatty Taylor, Larry Cannon, and a backup G
named Fran Dunphy led the Explorers (under legendary player-turned-coach
Tom Gola) to the number two national ranking in 1969! Meanwhile, after
relishing and embracing the underdog role last week at Salt Lake City when
dumping Gonzaga and Pittsburgh, Wichita State now faces a different set of
psychological dynamics against the surprise A-10 survivor Explorers, who won
three games in five days in the first week of the tournament to stay alive into the
regional finals.
Specifically, it’s the favored Shockers who are now the hunted, not the
hunter. And the chalk role was not as especially comfortable one for Gregg
Marshall’s troops, who have covered the number only four of their last eleven
tries laying points.
True, there would seem to be a fundamental edge on the blocks for Wichita
and its burly frontliners against La Salle’s 4-G, perimeter-oriented lineup that
has been without one of its few quality bigs, 6-11 soph Steve Zack, who has
been sidelined for almost a month with foot problems. That absence appears
to open the door for the Shockers to dominate with their no-nonsense interior
weapons, led by rugged 6-8 juco Cleanthony Early (14 ppg) and intimidating 6-
8 holdover Carl Hall (13 ppg), who has shorn his dreadlocks for the Big Dance
adventure. But before dismissing the Explorers, keep in mind how they had to
deal with Wichita-like talent in the paint in the Round of 32 vs. Ole Miss, whose
Reginald Buckner-Murphy Holloway duo suggested the Rebs could push
around La Salle on the inside as well. Didn’t happen. And, for all of the media
talk about how Wichita was going to make Gonzaga cower on the blocks, Hall
(only 8 points and one board) was a peripheral factor at best against the Zags,
who seemed to have control of the game until the Shcokers went on an uncanny
and uncharacteristic long-range shooting binge (including conversions on
seven straight triples!) in the final minutes to reverse a 7-point deficit.
In a tournament where quality guard play has been a common link between
almost all of the advancing teams, no group is playing better than La Salle’s,
whose backcourt has had some extra bite since Philly product and Virginia Tech
transfer Tyrone Garland (12.8 ppg) became eligible in mid-December and
emerged as one of the nation’s best sparkplugs off the bench, good enough to
score the game winner on a trademark “South Philly floater” to KO the SEC
Rebs at Kansas City last Sunday. With established backcourt mates Ramon
Galloway (17.4 ppg) and Tyreek Duren (14.5 ppg), the Explorers had enough
firepower on the perimeter to outscore teams led by stars Gs such as Kansas
State’s Rodney McGruder and Ole Miss’ Marshall Henderson last weekend.
Meanwhile, rugged 6-8, 240-lb. soph PF Jerrell Wright is providing the
necessary grunt work in the paint, scoring 14 ppg in three games while
converting an astounding 16 of 18 FG tries in a monument to offensive
efficiency.
Wichita’s X-factor Gs Malcolm Armstead (who has scored 22 or more in two
of his last three games) & Ron Baker (who hit 4 of 6 triples to save the day vs.
Gonzaga) have distorted the proceedings in recent weeks, but they have not
been nearly as reliable contributors as have John Giannini’s La Salle guards.
With the Explorers continuing to pull straight flushes from the deck when
needed in the final minutes, we’re going to roll with the hot hand of scrappy La
Salle until further notice.

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Todays Best Bets

(3 UNITS) Miami (FL) -5.5

(5 UNITS) Ohio State -3.5

(4 UNITS) Syracuse +5.5

(5 UNITS) La Salle +4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Youmans
cbb
Arizona +4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Miami Key Reserve to Miss Marquette Game; Line Moves

The Miami Hurricanes will be without senior center and key reserve Reggie Johnson for the Sweet 16 game against Marquette on Thursday and the potential Elite Eight game on Saturday.

UM released a statement saying that Johnson sustained a "lower extremity injury" in the third round game against Illinois. Two sources said he underwent arthroscopic surgery on Tuesday according to The Miami Herald.

The 6-foot-10, 292-pound Johnson averages 6.7 points and 7 rebounds a game in 21.3 minutes off the bench.

Miami opened as a 5.5-point favorite but was bet down to -5 yesterday. The total is 127. A linesmaker at CarbonSports told he expects the line to close at -6 or more, but that was before the latest injury news.

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Where the action is: Sweet 16 action picks up

The worst thing about the Round of 16 is the waiting. NCAA tournament bettors have been holding their collective breath since Sunday and moving the Sweet 16 odds in the process.

We talk to John Avello, sportsbook director at the Wynn Las Vegas, about the betting action heading into Thursday’s first slate of Sweet 16 games.

Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Miami Hurricanes – Open: -6, Move: -5

This line jumped down a full point when Miami reserve center Reggie Johnson was ruled out with a knee injury. The Hurricanes rely on their physical brand of basketball and will miss Johnson’s seven rebounds per game against an equally physical Marquette squad.

“He’s their big body in the middle,” Avello says of Johnson. “But people have high hopes for this Miami team and the money will come in tomorrow. This will go back up to -5.5 and maybe -6.”

As for futures money, Miami is lined up as a loser for sportsbooks if the Canes can win the national title - even more so now that Avello took some big bets on Miami to win this past week.

Arizona Wildcats vs. Ohio State Buckeyes – Open: -4.5, Move: -3.5

The Buckeyes come to Los Angeles to take on the upstart Wildcats in the Sweet 16. Early money has bet Ohio State down a full point, leaning on Arizona’s size advantage and expected crowd edge in the Staples Center.

OSU might have another weakness though. Head coach Thad Matta went just three deep into his bench in a last-second win over Iowa State in the Round of 32.

“I think the biggest problem with Ohio State is how deep their bench is,” he says. “If they get into foul trouble, the Buckeyes could really be in trouble.”

Syracuse Orange vs. Indiana Hoosiers – Open: -5.5

This spread has stayed still since post, a product of the popularity of the two programs. Syracuse and Indiana have their loyal followings, but sharps could come in late and force books to adjust this line.

“There is always a respect for Syracuse,” says Avello. “I didn’t think they were playing that well at the end of the season and they surprised me to be in this spot.”

“There’s something to be said for great coaching at this time year,” he adds. “Guys like Jim Boeheim, and (Tom) Izzo, and (Mike) Krzyzewski and (Bill) Self from Kansas. They’re always here. We put weight into the coaching aspect but it’s not enough. We give it a lot but it’s not enough weight.”

La Salle Explorers vs. Wichita State Shockers – Open: -3.5, Move: -4

Some places aren’t expecting much handle on this Cinderella vs. Cinderella Sweet 16 matchup, but Avello says the staggered starts and the late tipoff could have a lot of money running into this game.

As for the futures money tied up in this contest, Wichita State was as big as 125-1 at the start of the season, now 45-1, and La Salle was among the “Field” which was set at 50-1. Fellow Cinderella Florida Gulf Coast was also priced amongst the “Field”.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Baylor (-9) Wednesday.

Thursday it’s Miami, (Fla.) The deficit is 75 sirignanos.