4-6-13

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NCAA Tournament Trends: Betting the Final Four
by Marc Lawrence

Listed below are some interesting trends and angles for the Final Four and National title game as college basketball betting head to Atlanta this weekend.

All results listed below are ATS (Against The Spread) and most recent since 1991 unless noted otherwise.

FINAL FOUR NOTES

• No. 1 Seed favorites 4 > pts are 6-1 ATS (Louisville)

• No. 8 or lower Seeds are 1-4 ATS (Wichita State)

• Favorites who won by 20 > pts are 0-4 ATS (Louisville)

• Favorites 4 > pts who scored 80 > pts in Elite Eight are 1-7 ATS (Louisville)

• Teams who are 4-0 ATS last four games are 8-15 ATS (Michigan, Wichita State)

• Big East teams are 0-3 ATS since 2004 (Louisville, Syracuse)

NATIONAL TITLE GAME NOTES

• No. 1 Seed favorites are 7-2 ATS

• No. 4 Seeds are 2-0 ATS

• No. 5 or worse Seeds are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS

• Favorites of 5 < pts are 11-1 ATS

• Favorites who scored 80 > pts in the Final Four are 5-1 ATS

• Teams with a win percentage of .810 < are 1-5 ATS

• Dogs > 2 pts who allowed 60 > pts in the Final Four are 0-5 ATS

• Dogs of 3 > pts off a SU dog win are 0-4 ATS

• Big East teams are 4-0 ATS

• Big 10 teams are 0-4 ATS

COACH ME UP

Louisville’s Rick Pitino is:

47-13 SU and 36-22-3 ATS in NCAA tournament
119-52 SU and 100-66-5 ATS vs. Big East
16-11 SU and 11-16 ATS vs. Big Ten
4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS vs. MVC
8-8 SU and 4-12 ATS vs. Beilein
12-5 SU and 10-6-1 ATS vs. Boeheim
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs. Marshall

Michigan’s John Beilein is:

12-6 SU and 14-3-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
47-53 SU and 50-48-2 ATS vs. Big East
6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS vs. MVC
0-9 SU and 3-6 ATS vs. Boeheim
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs. Marshall
2-2 SU AND 1-2-1 ATS vs. Pitino

Syracuse’s Jim Boeheim is:

34-18 SU and 27-21-2 ATS in NCAA tournament
13-4 SU and 11-6 ATS vs. Big Ten
292-160 SU and 219-227-5 ATS vs. Big East
4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS vs. MVC
9-0 SU and 6-3 ATS vs. Beilein
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs. Marshall
1-0 5-12 SU and 6-10-1 ATS vs. Pitino

Wichita State’s Greg Marshall is:

4-1 SU and ATS in NCAA tournament
2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS vs. Big East
3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS vs. Big Ten
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs. Belein
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs. Boeheim
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs. Pitino

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NCAA Tournament's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Final Four
by Jason Logan

Finding a chink in the oddsmakers’ armor is tough come tournament time. We peel back Saturday’s Final Four matchups in search of some underlying mismatches that could make or break your college basketball bets.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Syracuse Orange (+2.5, 131)

Wolverines’ four-guard set vs. Orange’s long, athletic zone

Michigan’s high-powered offense is driven by a four-guard set featuring freshman big Mitch McGary as the only starter over 6-foot-6. The Wolverines are able to play at a very quick pace, averaging nearly 75 points on 58 field goal attempts per game. Many of those come from behind the arc and Michigan may have to rely on its 3-point shooting versus Syracuse Saturday.

With the Orange’s 2-3 zone plugging up the paint, the Maize and Blue could be left with little choice but to launch from distance. Michigan is among the best 3-point shooting teams in the country and is shooting 40 percent for the tournament.

Syracuse’s long defenders forced Indiana – another premier perimeter team – to chuck up bricks from outside, limiting the Hoosiers to 3-of-15 shooting from 3-point range. The Orange defense is getting a hand up on outside shooters while slowing games to a standstill - not Michigan’s type of party. Cuse has locked down tournament foes to just 61 total field goals in its four games so far.

Wichita State Shockers vs. Louisville Cardinals (-10.5, 130.5)

Shockers’ second-chance buckets vs. Cardinals’ poor glass cleaning

Wichita State has hustled its way into the Final Four, surprising opponents and the nation with great defense, terrific team play, and relentless work on the glass. The Shockers were 25th in the country in rebounding and are especially dangerous on the offensive boards – 38th in Div. 1.

In the tournament, they’ve been out-rebounded only once (vs. Gonzaga) and more than 32 percent of their total boards are coming off the offensive glass. That’s led to plenty of second-chance looks for WSU.

Louisville has barely broken a sweat in the tournament with its closest game coming versus Oregon in the Sweet 16. The Cardinals don’t have many weaknesses but they have been soft on the boards, allowing opponents to grab 9.9 offensive rebounds per game this season.

Louisville allowed the Ducks to pull down 11 offensive rebounds and escaped with an eight-point win, it’s only blown cover since Dec. 23. The Cardinals failed to out-rebound their opponents in all but one of their five losses this season, giving up an average of 10.2 offensive boards in those games.

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Where The Action is: Early Final Four Line Moves

Brackets have been busted, Cinderella has been crowned, and the tournament’s top team looks better than ever. Everything is set for a fantastic Final Four Saturday, including the odds.

Sportsbooks opened betting on the two Final Four matchups – Louisville vs. Wichita State and Syracuse vs. Michigan – Sunday night and already some of those lines have moved.

We talk to veteran oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro of William Hill Sportsbooks in Nevada and Michael Stewart, oddsmaker with online book CarbonSports, about the early action on this weekend’s NCAA games.

Wichita State Shockers vs. Louisville Cardinals – Open: -10, Move: -10.5

The tournament’s top seed looked dominant versus Duke and garnered a double-digit spread versus the NCAA’s Cinderella in the Final Four. According to CarbonSports, sharp money swooped in and immediately pushed the spread to -10, a trend they expect will continue.

“We went to -10.5 late last night and that has stopped the bleeding some, but I do believe it's going to be a case where the public is going to continue to play Louisville,” Stewart said. “Unless a sharp betting group comes in on the dog, this line closes Louisville -11.”

Things have been a little quieter in Las Vegas, where the line can still be had at Louisville -10. Vaccaro says that only one bettor looking to make a big wager on this game won’t do it right now, with the line expected to climb before the weekend.

He is also happy to see Louisville in the driver’s seat during Final Four weekend. The Cardinals present the biggest win for the book in terms of futures action, with teams like Ohio State and Miami – the biggest threats to the futures book – knocked off last week.

“Louisville is the biggest pick up for us. It’s the same thing year after year. These big faves don’t really hold any value come tournament time,” Vaccaro said. “We have a little (futures money) on Michigan but nothing on Wichita State and nothing really on Syracuse. People forgot about them when things went bad at the end of the season.”

The total for Saturday’s game between Louisville and Wichita State has moved slightly depending on where you bet. The number climbed from 129.5 to as high as 131 points at some books while others haven’t taken much action on the over/under.

“The public usually doesn't get involved with totals until the day of the game and wiseguys are most likely waiting to bet them once our limits go up,” says Stewart.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Syracuse Orange – Open: +2, Move: +2.5

Books debated opening this spread at Michigan -1.5 and some oddsmakers suggested this Final Four matchup was more in the pick’em range. Early money on the Wolverines bumped the spread to -2.5 and moneyline bettors didn’t bother with the spread, taking the Wolverines outright.

“We took a nice play on the Wolverines’ moneyline but that’s about it,” says Vaccaro, the spread hasn’t moved much since post. “The smarts aren’t going to jump in right now. We’ve taken a little bit of action on Michigan.”

The total for this game has remained relatively steady, with some markets bumping the number from 130.5 to 131 points. According to CarbonSports, the action is split on the over/under.

Syracuse’s zone defense has been especially stingy in the tournament, limiting opponents to just 61 total field goals and forcing 67 turnovers in four games while playing under the total in three of those contests. Michigan, on the other hand, is averaging just under 79 points in the NCAA and has topped the total in its last two outings.

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NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player Award Odds

The field of 68 has been trimmed to four, and the field of contenders for the NCAA tournament’s Most Outstanding Player Award is split between the remaining teams - Louisville, Wichita State, Syracuse and Michigan. Take a look at the updated MOP odds and where those players opened heading into Saturday’s action:

Russ Smith, Louisville -125 (Open: +500)

Peyton Siva, Louisville +300 (Open: +1,000)

Trey Burke, Michigan +300 (Open: +1,000)

C.J. Fair, Syracuse +800 (Open: +3,000)

Gorgui Dieng, Louisville +800 (+1,000)

Tim Hardaway Jr., Michigan +1000 (Open: +2,500)

Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse +1200 (Open: N/A)

Nik Stauskas, Michigan +1500 (Open: N/A)

Brandon Triche, Syracuse +1500 (Open: +4,000)

Cleanthony Early, Wichita State +2500 (Open: +7,500)

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Louisville Favored Big over Wichita State on Saturday

NCAA Tournament - National Semifinals
Georgia Dome - Atlanta, GA
Tip-off: Sunday, 6:05 p.m. ET
Line: Louisville -10.5, Total: 131

The top-seeded school in the NCAA Tournament takes on the biggest surprise team of the tourney in the first Final Four game when Louisville meets Wichita State on Saturday in Atlanta.

The ninth-seeded Shockers have not only won four straight games to make the Final Four, but they have done so in blowout fashion. They have topped their opponents by an average of 10.5 PPG, and have held four NCAA tourney opponents under 36% FG. Louisville also knows a thing or two about defense, winning 14 straight games (11-3 ATS) by holding all 14 opponents to under 70 points, including limiting 10 of those opponents below 60 points. The Cardinals are now 18-1 SU (17-1-1 ATS) in their past 19 games in the month of March over the past two seasons. The Shockers are a stellar 9-1 SU (7-3 ATS) on a neutral court this season, outscoring these opponents by 9.7 PPG, while Louisville is 10-1 SU (8-3 ATS) on a neutral court this season, outscoring its opponents by 16.5 PPG. And while WSU is 5-2 (SU and ATS) in the underdog role, Louisville is 7-3 (SU and ATS) when favored in non-home games.

Wichita State continues to win with a hard-nosed defense that allows only 60.9 PPG on 39.3% FG and 32.1% threes for the season. NCAA Tournament foes have scored 62.3 PPG against the Shockers, but have made just 34.3% of their shots. WSU has outrebounded six of seven opponents in the postseason and now ranks 7th in the nation in rebounding margin (+8.0 RPG). The Shockers offense has been pretty strong as well in the tourney, averaging 72.8 PPG despite a subpar 42.7% FG clip. But three-point shooting has been outstanding over their past three wins, as they are 27-of-60 (45%) from downtown. The Shockers are able to stay fresh and hound opponents on defense because head coach Gregg Marshall gives 11 of his players at least 11 MPG. The three double-digit scorers are junior SF Cleanthony Early (13.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG) and seniors PF Carl Hall (12.5 PPG, 6.9 RPG) and PG Malcolm Armstead (10.9 PPG, 3.9 APG, 3.8 RPG). Early had just 5.0 PPG on 5-of-21 FG in three games leading up to the tourney, but has stepped up his play in the NCAA's with 14.3 PPG on 48% FG and 7.0 RPG. The 6-foot-8 Hall has scored 10.8 PPG (52% FG) and 4.8 RPG in the NCAA Tournament, but his defense has been huge, blocking 12 shots over the past three games, including six against OSU in the Elite Eight. Armstead has scored 15.5 PPG in the four tourney games, but has made just 36% FG and 6-of-21 threes (29%). He has contributed in other ways though with 6.0 RPG and 2.3 SPG over the past three contests. Freshman SG Ron Baker (8.6 PPG) was 0-for-5 against Pittsburgh to start the tournament, but hasn't missed much in the past two games, scoring 14.5 PPG on 9-of-16 FG (56%), including 6-of-10 from three-point range and 14-of-15 from the foul line. Both sophomore G Tekele Cotton (6.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG) and freshman G Fred Van Vleet (4.3 PPG) are coming off double-figure scoring games against the Buckeyes, with Cotton netting 10 points with five boards, and Van Vleet contributing 12 points (4-of-8 FG) and two steals.

Louisville ranks fourth in the nation in scoring margin (+16.2 PPG) with 74.3 PPG of offense (31st in nation) and 58.1 PPG allowed on defense (16th in D-I). The Cards outshoot opponents 45.6% FG to 39.2% FG (28th in nation), but they do not rely on the three-point shot like most Rick Pitino-coached teams do. Louisville makes just 5.6 threes per game (231st in D-I) on a subpar 32.8% clip (217th in nation). This team thrives on full-court pressure, using 10.9 steals per game (2nd in D-I) and a +6.1 turnover margin (also 2nd in nation) to get plenty of easy baskets. This defense has forced 17.8 TOPG in the NCAA's, which is a big reason why the team is scoring a hefty 80.8 PPG on 55.1% FG in the Big Dance. Nobody has been scoring quite like SG Russ Smith (18.9 PPG, 3.4 RPG), who is averaging 26.0 PPG on 54.1% FG in the NCAA Tournament. He's gotten a ton of points by driving to the hoop and drawing fouls, as he's 32-for-40 (80%) from the line in the NCAA's. Smith has also tallied 13 steals in the four wins, to increase his season average to 2.1 SPG. Senior PG Peyton Siva (9.7 PPG, 5.8 APG, 2.2 SPG) is coming off his best NCAA Tournament game against Duke when he scored 16 points (6-of-10 FG) with four assists and zero turnovers in 33 minutes. That was quite an improvement from his four points, three assists and four turnovers in the Sweet 16 against Oregon. This talented backcourt did not play well in last year's Final Four loss to Kentucky though, combining for 8-of-26 shooting (31%) with four assists and six turnovers. However the team's two big men did play well in that lost to UK in New Orleans, as C Gorgui Dieng (10.2 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 2.5 BPG) scored seven points with 12 boards (8 offensive) and four blocks, while PF Chane Behanan (9.6 PPG, 6.3 RPG) scored 10 points with nine rebounds. In this year's NCAA Tournament, Dieng is averaging 11.0 PPG on 20-of-24 FG (83%), 7.5 RPG and 2.5 BPG. His only problem has been foul shooting, where he's made just 2-of-10 FT in the past two games. Behanan is coming off his best NCAA tourney game this year, netting eight points, eight rebounds and three steals versus Duke. Junior swingman Luke Hancock (7.4 PPG) also had his highest scoring game in the Elite Eight scoring 10 points on 2-of-3 FG and 5-of-5 free throws. The Cards rallied against the Blue Devils after sophomore SG Kevin Ware (4.5 PPG) suffered a horrific broken leg late in the first half, beating Duke 50-31 after halftime, and are using Ware's misfortune as further motivation to capture the NCAA Championship.

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Michigan Tries to Solve Syracuse 2-3 Zone Saturday

NCAA Tournament - National Semifinals
Georgia Dome - Atlanta, GA
Tip-off: Sunday, 8:45 p.m. ET
Line: Michigan -2, Total: 131

A pair of No. 4 seeds with 30 victories apiece will play in Saturday's Final Four when Syracuse takes on Michigan at Georgia Dome.

The Wolverines hit the wall at the start of February, finishing the regular season 1-9 ATS (5-5 SU) and then losing to Wisconsin in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament. But they have been outstanding in the NCAA Tournament, beating their four opponents by an average score of 79 to 63, including three wins of 15+ points. The Orange have also dominated in their four NCAA wins, with three double-digit victories and a +20.0 PPG margin, prevailing by an average score of 66 to 46. The Wolverines are 8-1 (SU and ATS) on a neutral court this season, outscoring these teams by 11.7 PPG. Syracuse is now 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS) in the postseason and 8-2 SU (6-4 ATS) on a neutral court this season. Michigan is just 2-5 ATS as a non-home favorite this season, while the Orange are 4-3 (SU and ATS) in the underdog role. These teams last met two seasons ago on a neutral court in the Legends Classic in Atlantic City, resulting in a 53-50 Syracuse win.

Michigan is a team that matches up well against Syracuse's 2-3 zone, scoring 75.5 PPG (23rd in nation) on 48.5% FG (6th in D-I) and 38.5% threes (18th in nation). And while Syracuse thrives on creating miscues with its long-armed roster, the Wolverines have the fewest amount of turnovers in the country (9.4 TOPG), lead the nation in Ast/TO ratio (1.55) and rebound pretty well too with a +3.1 RPG margin. Michigan's defense is adequate (62.9 PPG, 42.3% FG, 32.3% threes allowed) and is able to stay out of foul trouble (12.7 fouls per game, 2nd-fewest in D-I), by preferring not to take many chances in trying to force turnovers, as evidenced by a mere 2.8 BPG and 6.2 SPG, which rank 245th and 225th in the nation, respectively. The Wolverines' backcourt of sophomore PG Trey Burke (18.8 PPG) and junior SG Tim Hardaway Jr. (14.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG) has carried this team all season. Burke's 3.12 Ast/TO ranks third in the country, and his 6.8 APG places 12th among the nation's leaders. Burke can also score in bunches, averaging 18.7 PPG in his past three games, including 23 points after halftime in the big comeback win over Kansas in the Sweet 16. Although he shoots 38.1% threes for the season, he is just 7-for-27 (26%) from downtown in the NCAA's, something he'll have to improve facing Syracuse's zone defense. Hardaway also shoots a high percentage from behind the arc (38.7%), but is just 2-of-8 in the past two games, and did not shoot well against the Syracuse 2-3 zone two seasons ago, making just 3-of-12 shots (1-of-8 threes) in the loss in Atlantic City. Hardaway Jr. snapped a streak of seven straight double-figure scoring games in the Elite Eight win over Florida, scoring just nine points on 3-of-13 shooting. But this is much more than a two-man team. Six-foot-10 freshman PF Mitch McGary (7.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG) has been phenomenal in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 17.5 PPG on 73% FG with 11.5 RPG and 2.8 SPG. His 25 points, 14 rebounds and three steals were vital to his team's comeback over Kansas. Freshman PF Glenn Robinson III (11.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG) played poorly in the Big Ten Tournament (6.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG), but he has certainly stepped up in the NCAA's with 13.5 PPG on 62% FG and 6.3 RPG. Another freshman, SF Nik Stauskas (11.5 PPG, 3.1 RPG) is the team's best three-point shooter at 45% and busted out of his shooting slump in a big way on Sunday. After averaging just 7.8 PPG on 10-of-31 FG and 2-of-16 threes over his previous four games, Stauskas drained 7-of-8 shots (6-of-6 threes) for 22 points against the Gators.

Syracuse's 2-3 zone has been unbelievable in the tournament, holding opponents to 45.8 PPG on 28.9% FG and 15.2% threes. For the season, the school allows 58.6 PPG (21st in nation) on 36.8% FG (3rd in D-I) and 28.2% threes (3rd in nation). Marquette's 39 points on Saturday were the fewest in the shot clock era for an Elite Eight game, as the Golden Eagles shot 22.6% from the floor (12-of-53 FG) and 3-of-24 threes (12.5%). The Orange are averaging 10.8 SPG and 6.5 BPG in the NCAA Tournament, increasing their season averages to 9.1 SPG (10th in D-I) and 6.2 BPG (5th in nation). But it hasn't just been missed shots for opponents, as they are also turning the ball over at an alarming rate. Syracuse has posted a +22 turnover margin for the tournament, committing just 10.8 TOPG and forcing 16.3 TOPG. For the season, the Orange have a +3.2 TO margin, good for 20th in the nation. This team continues to rally around PG Michael Carter-Williams (12.1 PPG). The 6-foot-6 sophomore ranks third in the nation in assists (7.4 APG) and fourth in steals (2.79 SPG). He's averaged 16.0 PPG in his past three games, and did it all on Saturday with 12 points, eight rebounds, six assists and five steals. The only negative for Carter-Williams has been his dreadful foul shooting, as he's made a pitiful 13-of-33 free throws (39%) over the past six games. Senior SG Brandon Triche (13.7 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 3.5 APG) has been inconsistent all tourney, but he's still averaging 12.8 PPG despite his 41.7% FG shooting. PF C.J. Fair (14.4 PPG, 7.1 RPG) is team's top scorer and rebounder, and has played very well in the NCAA Tournament with 13.8 PPG (47% FG) and 6.0 RPG. Senior PF James Southerland (13.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG) is the most potent long-range shooter for the Orange at 40.3% threes, and is coming off a 16-point outburst against Marquette. C Baye Keita (3.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG) isn't asked to score much, but has played excellent defense in the NCAA's with 15 rebounds and seven blocks. Triche, Fair, Southerland and Keita all played in that win over Michigan two seasons ago. Triche had six points, four assists and four turnovers, Fair netted just two points in 10 minutes, Southerland didn't take a shot in five minutes and Keita also was 0-for-0 FG, but had nine rebounds and two blocks in his 26 minutes of action.

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NCAA Basketball Picks

SATURDAY, APRIL 6 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST (4/4)

Game 815-816: Michigan vs. Syracuse (8:49 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 76.680; Syracuse 71.864 Dunkel Line: Michigan by 5; 127 Vegas Line: Michigan by 2; 131 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-2); Under

Game 817-818: Wichita State vs. Louisville (6:09 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 69.176; Louisville 81.395 Dunkel Line: Louisville by 12; 129 Vegas Line: Louisville by 10 1/2; 132 Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-10 1/2); Under

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Jimmy Boyd

5* Louisville -10.5

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SCOTT SPREITZER

Final 4 goy Louisville

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Kyle hunter

Michigan/Syracuse Under 131

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PREDICTION MACHINE

Against the Spread Picks

Rot • Time (ET) • ATS Pick • Opponent • Line • Margin • Win% ATS

816 8:49 PM MICHIGAN SYRACUSE • -2 • 2.2 • 50.3%

818 6:05 PM LOUISVILLE WICHITA ST. • -10.5 • 10.6 • 50.1%

Straight-Up Picks

Rot • Time (ET) • Favorite • Opponent •Points For • Points Against • Win%

818 6:05 PM Louisville Wichita St. • 69.1 • 58.5 • 80.2%

816 8:49 PM Michigan Syracuse • 69.8 • 67.7 • 56.2%

Over/Under Picks

Home Rot • Time (ET) • Matchup • Line •Total Points • Pick • Pick%

816 8:49 PMSYRACUSE vs MICHIGAN • 131 • 137.5 • Over • 57.9%

818 6:05 PMWICHITA ST. vs LOUISVILLE • 131 • 127.6 • Under • 54.4%

In the picks above, Margin, Points For, Points Against and Total Points are averages from 50,000 games played. The Win% ATS is the percentage of games in which the team picked covers the noted spread.

Similarly, the Pick% in the Over/Under table is the percentage of time that the Over or Under pick covers the total.

These values represent the Predictalator's confidence in the pick and are used in the Play Value Key and Calculator. With RL and O/U plays assumed to be -110, anything less than 52.38% confidence is not considered to be a worthwhile pick.

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Final Four Teams by The Betting Numbers

With the national semifinals this Saturday, we decided to look at all four teams traveling to Atlanta and their respective betting records this season.

Louisville Cardinals

Overall: 33-5 SU (Straight Up), 23-15 ATS (Against The Spread) 18-14 Over/Under

Postseason: 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS, 7-0 O/U

Stats: Louisville has won its four tournament games by an average of 21.8 points.

Cardinals center Gorgui Dieng is averaging 11 points on 83 percent shooting, 7.5 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks per game in the tournament.

Wichita State Shockers

Overall: 30-8 SU, 19-14-2 ATS, 14-15 O/U

Postseason: 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS, 5-2 O/U

Stats: Wichita State is holding its opponents to 34.4 percent from the floor in the tournament, way down from its season average of 39.3 percent.

The Shockers are shooting 75.8 percent from the foul line in the tournament, significantly higher than their season average of 69.8, and better than the other remaining Final Four teams.

Michigan Wolverines

Overall: 30-7 SU, 18-16-1 ATS, 21-14 O/U

Postseason: 5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS, 4-2 O/U

Stats: Michigan is holding opponents to 24.4 percent from 3-point range in the tournament, well below its season average of 32.3.

Wooden All-American Trey Burke is averaging 15.5 points and 7.8 assists in the tournament.

Syracuse Orange

Overall: 30-9 SU, 20-15 ATS, 15-18 O/U

Postseason: 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS, 4-4 O/U

Stats: Syracuse is yielding 45.8 points per game in the tournament, way down from its season average of 58.6.

The Orange rank 131st nationally in field goal percentage at 44 percent.

To win NCAA Championship outright :

Louisville -138

Michigan +300

Syracuse +475

Wichita State +1200

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One Telling Stat for Each Final Four Team

Louisville won with the best talent. Syracuse smothered its opponents with stifling defense. Wichita State has been draining shots at the charity stripe. Michigan needed a prayer 3-pointer from Trey Burke just to be here.

There are many different ways to get to the Final Four. But being great at one area enhances your chances of cutting down the nets in Atlanta.

Here are the top four stats from each Final Four team explaining their success in the tournament:

Louisville: 55.8 percent shooting
The Cardinals have been shooting 55.8 percent in the tournament, second-best of all Division I teams in the postseason.

Wichita State: 76.9 free-throw shooting
The Shockers have upped their percentage from the free-throw line in the tournament, going from a 69.8 percent to a 76.9 percent.

Syracuse: 6.25 blocks
Not only are the Orange averaging 6.25 blocks a game in the tournament, but they've gotten blocks from eight different players.

Michigan: 40.2 3-point percentage
Burke's huge triple in the Sweet 16 against Kansas gets the most airtime, but the Wolverines have been hitting 40.2 percent of their 3-pointers in the tournament, best of the remaining teams.

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Handicapping one Prop Bet for Each Final Four Team

Looking for some extra action for Saturday's Final Four?

The Las Vegas Hotel SuperBook has plenty of props for the two big games in Atlanta.

Here's a look at two props for each game in the Final Four:

Wichita State vs. Louisville (-10.5, 131.5) 6:09 p.m. ET

Total points by Louisville's Russ Smith
Over 20.5 -110
Under 20.5 -110
Smith has scored 20 or more six times in the past seven games. He eclipsed 20 points 12 times in his previous 31 games.

Total 3-point field goals made in Wichita State-Louisville game
Over 11.5 -110
Under 11.5 -110
Wichita State is 172nd in college basketball in 3-point shooting at 34 percent and Louisville is 232nd nationally in the same category at 32.8 percent.

Michigan vs. Syracuse (2, 131) 8:49 p.m. ET

Total points by Michigan's Glenn Robinson III
Over 11 -110
Under 11 -110
Robinson's scoring has gone down in each game in the tournament from 21 in Michigan's opener all the way down to nine in the Elite Eight against Florida.

Total points by Syracuse
Over 64.5 -110
Under 64.5 -110
The Orange's scoring has gone down to 64.9 a game in the postseason from 70.8 points on the season.