4-7-13

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5Lines

Total Line for 04/07/2013

(Won last 3 games) Today's Winning Team is: MLB - Houston Astros : u7.5 Cost: +105

Run Line for 04/07/2013

(Lost last game) Today's Winning Team is: MLB - Tampa Bay Rays : -1.5 Cost: +105

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Today's NBA Picks

New York at Oklahoma City

The Thunder look to build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record. Oklahoma City is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by 11 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-7 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, APRIL 7 Time Posted: 10:30 a.m. EST

Game 501-502: New York at Oklahoma City (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New York 120.688; Oklahoma City 132.104 Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 11 1/2; 202 Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7 1/2; 196 Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-7 1/2); Over

Game 503-504: LA Lakers at LA Clippers (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 115.135; LA Clippers 127.293 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 12; 199 Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 4 1/2; 203 Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-4 1/2); Under

Game 505-506: Memphis at Sacramento (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 122.488; Sacramento 115.422 Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 7; 194 Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 5 1/2; 197 Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-5 1/2); Under

Game 507-508: Washington at Boston (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 117.653; Boston 116.683 Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1; 202 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 509-510: Orlando at Cleveland (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 109.791; Cleveland 117.888 Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 8; 198 Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 6; 203 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-6); Under

Game 511-512: Chicago at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 119.544; Detroit 107.184 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 12 1/2; 190 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 4 1/2; 186 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-4 1/2); Over

Game 513-514: Utah at Golden State (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Utah 118.986; Golden State 126.064 Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 7; 196 Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 5 1/2; 200 Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-5 1/2); Under

Game 515-516: New Orleans at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 116.855; Phoenix 111.431 Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 204 Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 2 1/2; 197 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-2 1/2); Over

Game 517-518: Dallas at Portland (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 119.060; Portland 113.813 Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 5; 202 Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 3 1/2; 205 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-3 1/2); Under

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PAUL LEINER

100* Over 10 - Padres/Rockies

100* Blue Jays -130

50* Cubs +125

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Johnson Favored Heavily to Win at Martinsville

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
STP Gas Booster 500

Sunday, April 7 – 1:00 p.m. EDT
Martinsville Speedway – Martinsville, VA
After a week off, the NASCAR field makes its first of two appearances at the short track of Martinsville Speedway when the drivers rev up their engines in the STP Gas Booster 500 on Sunday. This 0.526-mile oval track was completed in 1947 and has banking consisting of 12° turns with completely flat straights, which both measure 800 feet (0.15 miles).

Since 2003, only seven different drivers have won the 20 races run on this track. Jimmie Johnson has seven wins in this span, Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin have four, Tony Stewart has a pair of wins, and the trio of Ryan Newman, Kevin Harvick and Rusty Wallace has one victory apiece. Newman won the 2012 spring race while Johnson took home the checkered flag in the fall. Hamlin suffered a back injury in the last race in Fontana two weeks ago and is out indefinitely.

Odds to Win Race

Jimmie Johnson 4-to-1
Kyle Busch 6-to-1
Brad Keselowski 6-to-1
Jeff Gordon 9-to-1
Matt Kenseth 12-to-1
Kasey Kahne 12-to-1
Tony Stewart 12-to-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12-to-1
Mark Martin 15-to-1
Clint Bowyer 15-to-1
Kevin Harvick 15-to-1
Carl Edwards 15-to-1
Greg Biffle 20-to-1
Joey Logano 25-to-1
Ryan Newman 25-to-1
Martin Truex Jr. 30-to-1
Brian Vickers 40-to-1
Kurt Busch 50-to-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 50-to-1
FIELD (Any other driver) 50-to-1
Jeff Burton 50-to-1
Jamie McMurray 60-to-1
Aric Almirola 60-to-1
Juan Montoya 75-to-1
Marcos Ambrose 75-to-1
Paul Menard 75-to-1
Danica Patrick 300-to-1
Regan Smith 300-to-1

Drivers to Watch

Jimmie Johnson (4/1) - Sure the odds are incredibly unfavorable, but if you’re putting money down on just one driver this weekend, the choice would have to be Johnson. The No. 48 car not only has seven victories on this track, but Johnson has a ridiculous 15 top-5’s in 22 career starts here and an unbelievable average finish of 5.5. After two straight subpar finishes this year (22nd at Bristol, 12th at Fontana), expect Johnson to get back in the winner's circle this weekend.

Clint Bowyer (15/1) - In the past four short-track races (Bristol twice, Richmond and Martinsville), Bowyer has finished 7th, 1st, 5th and 5th. He is always racing near the front of the pack at this track, knocking out eight top-10's in his past 11 starts at Martinsville. In the four times he has started better than 12th at this track, Bowyer has finished 9th, 5th and turned last year's two great starts into finishes of 10th and 5th. At 15-to-1, he represents the best value on the board.

Kasey Kahne (12/1) - Of the four drivers garnering 12-to-1 odds on Sunday, Kahne is the best play of the quartet. He won the last short-track race on the circuit (Bristol) and finished third in the most recent race at Martinsville last fall. Kahne actually won the pole last spring at this track, but engine problems took him out of the race, marking the fourth time he's suffered car problems at Martinsville in his career. But with three straight great finishes this season (2nd at Las Vegas, Bristol win, 9th at Fontana), Kahne is showing it's better to be good than lucky.

Ryan Newman (25/1) - The champion of this race last spring has been up-and-down at this track, but seven top-5's in 22 starts isn't too shabby for a driver with darkhorse 25-to-1 odds. Newman also has three top-10's this season, placing 5th at Daytona, 7th at Bristol (also a short track) and 10th in the last race two weeks ago in Fontana.

Paul Menard (75/1) - He is clearly the best longshot wager this weekend, with finishes of 10th, 23rd, 12th (at Martinsville) and 9th in the past four short-track races on the NASCAR circuit. He's also started 12th or better in four of his past six starts at Martinsville, showing he can be successful at this track despite the absence of any top-10 finishes in his 11 starts on this short track. His three straight top-10's this season (10th in Las Vegas, 9th in Bristol, 8th in Fontana) is also a good trend for Sunday's race. At 75-to-1, go ahead and drop a small wager on Menard.

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Brandon Lang

25 dime Utah Jazz +5.5

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Bob Balfe

Golden State -5.5

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Major1 Sports
Jerry Major

3* Toronto Blue Jays

5* Was.Nationals/Cincy Reds Under

3* At.Braves/Chic.Cubs Under

5* Phila. Phillies

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RightSideValuePlays

Knicks +8
Warriors -5
Mavs -3.5
Magic +7
Bulls -4

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SPORTS WAGERS

Miami +127 over N.Y. METS
(1st 5 innings) After the Royals blew a 3-1 lead in the ninth inning yesterday, combined with a couple of other late leads our choices blew in the first week, we’re going to play these dogs in the first five innings only and attempt to take the pens out of the equation. Our picks are based largely on the starters so it would only make sense to utilize that. The 1-4 Marlins may not be as bad as advertised. Miami is putting the ball in play but they have been very unlucky in that balls are being hit right at people. A close look reveals that Marlins hitters have the second fewest strikeouts in the National League behind San Francisco. The Fish have the benefit here of facing Aaron Laffey, who is pitching for his fifth team in six major league seasons. Laffey went 4-6 with a 4.56 ERA in 101 IP for Toronto last year. It’s been five years of the same, dull, lifeless skills for Laffey. He has one of the worst strikeout rates of all MLB pitchers to go along with a three-year WHIP of 1.63 from ’09 to ’11. Laffey is a complete stiff that should never be in this price range against any major league team.

In a surprising move, Miami added Jose Fernandez to its opening day roster. Fernandez is making the jump to the majors after accumulating only 138 IP in the minors, having yet to pitch beyond High-A Jupiter, where he made 11 starts in 2012. Despite his youth (20 years old), Fernandez belonged on the short list of top pitchers in the minors during 2012. Fernandez has a very athletic frame that supports his strong arsenal of pitches. He throws a plus, plus sinking fastball ranging from 93-97 that can top out at 99, a plus, plus slow curveball, a late breaking slider, and a change-up that has above-average potential and showing steady improvement. Fernandez has a ton of upside but it is always wise to expect an adjustment period for any pitcher making this large of a leap to the majors. Nonetheless, we’re happy to take our chances taking back a tag with this truly gifted talent that has ace potential written all over him.

Pittsburgh +147 over LOS ANGELES
1st 5 innings. The Dodgers are 3-2 with Clayton Kershaw winning both his games and Zack Greinke winning the other. The Dodgers scored eight times in those three wins. When Greinke or Kershaw didn’t start, the Dodgers went 0-2 while being outscored 8-3. In other words, when those two guys aren’t starting, the Dodgers are too big a risk and this one is no different. Hyun-Jin Ryu became the first pitcher to ever make the jump straight from the Korean Baseball Organization to the majors when he pitched six solid innings in San Francisco in a 3-0 Dodgers loss. Ryu throws four pitches, a fastball, changeup, curveball, and slider. His fastball and changeup are his two above-average pitches, with his changeup being the best. However, the majors are a big step up from the Korean League and Ryu’s offerings hang around the edges of the plate too much. He throws strikes but they are hittable strikes and unless he learns to throw balls way off the plate when ahead in the count, he’s going to get burned.

The Pirates are undervalued here because they have the league’s worst BA after five games that now stands at a pitiful .117. After facing Kershaw and Greinke in the first two games of this series, facing anyone else will be a welcome sight. Jeff Locke (LHP, PIT) posted a 131/43 K/BB in 141 IP at AAA Indianapolis prior to his recall in early August of last year. His MLB skills held up nicely with a 49% groundball rate and 34 K’s in 34.1 frames. Locke’s 5.50 ERA was the result of an unlucky 63% strand rate. Locke was acquired from the Braves in June ’09 and he focuses on command and control to succeed. Locke has clean arm action that produces a solid 88-92 mph fastball that features nice sink and movement. He can spot it to both sides of the plate effectively and it sets up his curveball and solid-average change-up. Locke won’t dominate but his pitch location is a strength and he can even vary his arm angles to keep hitters off-guard. Locke has also been very tough against lefties and the Dodgers big bats, aside from Matt Kemp, (Gonzalez, Crawford and Either) all bat from the left side.

Chicago +128 over ATLANTA

1st 5 innings. Tim Hudson is high on our fade list and even more so after he opened the year in unimpressive fashion against the Phillies. Hudson lasted just 4.1 frames after surrendering six hits and three runs. He struck out three, walked three and was on the ropes the entire outing. Atlanta won that game 7-5, creating a nice overlay here on the Cubbies. The value Hudson provides on the surface is slowly eroding. His second half low strikeout rate from last season drops the first warning sign. Two straight years of fastball decline, to sub-90 mph, suggests he might not get it back. xERA warns that first 4.50+ ERA is on the horizon. Hudson is middle-rotation filler now, and at age 37, it could all go quickly.

We get a big edge on the mound here with Jeff Samardzija. Samardzija went eight full innings in his first start of the year against Pittsburgh and threw an eight-inning, two-hit shutout. He struck out nine batters and walked just one. In that first start, 72% of balls in play hit off Samardzija were hit on the ground and while that mark is unsustainable, it’s in line with his increasing skill set. Samardzija developed into a legit rotation anchor after the All-Star Break in 2012 and he’s showing signs of being even better this year. An explanation for his breakout can be found in his pitch mix. He is now throwing four different pitches at least 10% of the time: 95 mph fastball (54%), 85 mph slider (14%), 92 mph cutter (11%), 86 mph splitter (19%). With overpowering raw stuff and a varied arsenal, Samardzija's growth is for real and he offers up nothing but true value taking back a price against the geriatric ward.

Boston +124 over TORONTO

1st 5 innings. R.A. Dickey is just your garden variety 37-year-old knuckleball pitcher. Um, not quite. Stunning strikeout rate spike was driven by the fastest knuckler in the East while he solidified elite control. Post-season abdomen surgery a concern and his first outing of the year wasn’t exactly dazzling. It’s not often that you see a reigning Cy Young award winner change teams. Can Blue Jays fans expect an encore performance? Dickey is unlikely to match last year’s numbers. His strand % was high all year, and hit % was low in the first half so his ERA should regress. xERA shows he should still post some good results but the low-3.00 ERA range is unlikely when you consider that AL East ballparks tend to enhance power. Dickey’s groundball rate also dipped in the second half, which is another concern. J.P. Arencibia caught Dickey in his first start with Toronto. Arencibia was charged with three passed balls and looked uncomfortable back there the entire game. The Red Sox already lead the league in stolen bases with six and that could definitely be a factor in this game. The Jays are playing very average ball with the infield defense looking very shaky.

As we mentioned prior to Jon Lester’s first start in New York, Lester noted that he has refined his mechanics to stand taller on the mound, revealing that he started making an effort to correct his posture late last summer. “I was pitching like a guy who was 5-foot-10 as opposed to 6-foot-4,” Lester said. “It makes a big difference on the way the ball comes in the zone”. Lester pitched well enough to win on Opening Day, holding the Yankees to two runs on five hits over five innings of work. He struck out seven batters, which is perhaps the best sign that his two-year strikeout rate decline was just an aberration. Lester’s groundball rate remains an asset and so does his competitive nature. Lester hates to lose and worked extensively in the off-season to correct whatever it was that saw his numbers decline over the past 1½-years. He appears to be a prime bounce-back candidate and we’ll continue to ride him when a tag is offered until he shows us something different.

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Sports Pickin'

NHL

St. Louis ML
Minnesota ML
Washington ML

MLB

Philadelphia ML
Washington ML

3-2 yesterday.

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Hoopsgooroo

[918] Toronto Blue Jays -128 vs Boston Red Sox
[901] Miami Marlins +119 vs New York Mets
[904] Cincinnati Reds -111 vs Washington Nationals
[929] Kansas City Royals +104 vs Philadelphia Phillies
[921] Cleveland Indians OVER 7 +110 vs Tampa Bay Rays
[925] Oakland Athletics -155 vs Houston Astros
[909] St Louis Cardinals +120 vs San Francisco Giants
[913] San Diego Padres +136 vs Colorado Rockies
[928] Texas Rangers -135 vs Los Angeles Angels

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xpertpicks

nba:
Oklahoma City -8 over New York
Memphis -6 over Sacramento

nhl:
San Jose -200 over Dallas
Washington -155 over Tampa Bay

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DENVER MONEY

2* New York Yankees +1.5 -135

2* Milwaukee Brewers -110

1* San Diego Padres +140

1* LA Angels +125

1* Angels / Rangers UNDER 8.5 -125

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CHRIS JORDAN

300* Knicks -7.5

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Phil Villapiano

Dallas Mavs