4-10-13

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SweetJones55 4/10

Free play

Atlanta Hawks -2.5 LOCKED

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Today's Best Bets

5* Yankees
5* Dodgers
4* Under 192.5 Nj/Bos
3* Magic
3* Bluejays

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5Lines

Total Line for 04/10/2013

(Lost last game) Today's Winning Team is: NBA - Los Angeles Clippers : u201 Cost: -110

Run Line for 04/10/2013

(Won last 2 games) Today's Winning Team is: NBA - Orlando Magic : +4.5 Cost: -110

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Scott Speitzer Early Annihilator

St Louis Cardinals

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Toronto vs. NY Rangers - April 10, 2013 - 7:00 PM

Pick: -153 NY Rangers
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: April 10, 2013 - 7:00 PM

Reason For Pick: I'm playing on the NEW YORK RANGERS. These teams just met at Toronto a couple of nights ago. The Leafs won that one by a score of 4-3. Tonight's rematch is at MSG though and I expect the Rangers to exact some revenge.

The Rangers are 60-46 (+8.4) in the "revenge" role the past few seasons. During that stretch, they're also 27-16 (+8) after allowing four or more goals in their previous game. That includes a perfect 3-0 mark in that situation this season. They won those games by scores of 4-3, 2-1 and 4-1.

On the other hand, the Leafs are only 30-40 (-9.5) the past few seasons, after scoring four or more goals in their previous game.

New York's Rick Nash said this of his team: "At this point of the season we have to be a lot more desperate and can't be having those defensive zone breakdowns."

After having played three straight on the road, the Rangers should be thrilled to return home. Note that they're 13-4 (+8.4) their last 17, after playing their previous three away from home.

The Rangers won this season's lone meeting vs the Leafs here by a score of 5-2 outshooting them by a 42-17 margin. I successfully backed them in that game and I'm expecting them to earn another important two points tonight. 9*

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Brandon Lang

15 dime play San Antonio +3.5

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Al DeMarco

15 DIME MLB UNDER-PRICED FAVORITE

San Franciso Giants

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Scott Delaney

80 Dime Opening Month
MLB Game of the Year
Texas Rangers

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Stephen Nover | NBA Sides - Wednesday, Apr 10 2013 10:05PM
714 POR 5.5(-110) 5Dimes vs 713 LAL double-dime bet

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Hondo -

The Pirates were heroic for Hondo last night, rallying beautifully in Arizona to sail past the Diamondbacks and elevate the earnings to a crisp 95 sotos.


Today, Mr. Aitch, working the day shift, will open with Bailey and the Reds over their arch-enemy in St. Louis. Next comes an afternoon delight, Moore or less, with the Rays. And finally, he is figuring on Zito to stone the Rockies. Ten units all.

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Joe Gavazzi MLB (NBA not out yet):

5% SF Giants
4% Braves
4% A's

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Pregame Videos

Fezzik
Best Bet - Portland +5 (should get +6 at post)

Bryan Leonard
Celtics Under 194.5
Cleveland Cavs -1.5

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JACK JONES

MLB Baseball Premium Picks

MLB | Apr 10 '13 (2:05p) Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers	Tampa Bay Rays +115 at SIA
15* AL Wednesday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay Rays +115 The Tampa Bay Rays will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing the first two games of this series to Texas. I like them to take Game 3 and salvage this series will avoiding the sweep. I especially like the Rays' chances with young phenom Matt Moore on the mound. The left-hander was brilliant in his first start, pitching 6 shutout innings while striking out eight in a 4-0 victory over Cleveland on April 5th. Moore shut down the Rangers in his lone career start against them, pitching seven shutout innings of a 9-0 victory at Texas on 9/30/2011. Rangers starter Derek Holland sports a 5.03 ERA in nine career starts against Tampa Bay. Tampa is a very profitable 25-20 (+11.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. The Rays are 17-4 in their last 21 games vs. a left-handed starter. Roll with the Rays Wednesday.

MLB | Apr 10 '13 (7:05p) Chicago White Sox vs Washington Nationals	Chicago White Sox +153 at BetOnline
15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox +153 Off a 1-run loss to the Washington Nationals in Game 1 of this series, I look for the Chicago White Sox to bounce back with a Game 2 victory tonight. You can't beat this price on the Sox, either. Gavin Floyd pitched very well in his opening start against Kansas City on April 4th, allowing just two earned runs and five base runners over 6 innings. Floyd's last start at Washington was a gem in 2010 as he allowed just one earned run over 8 innings of a 2-1 Chicago victory. This play falls into a system that is 34-13 (72.3%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (CHI WHITE SOX) - terrible offensive team - scoring <=4.2 runs/game on the season (AL) against opponent allowing 4.8 or more runs/game on the season (NL). This play falls into another system that is 69-67 (50.7%) over the last 5 seasons while profiting $1,000/game bettors a whopping $59,900. It tells us to bet against home favorites with a money line of -150 or more (WASHINGTON) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, top level team, winning 62% or more of their games on the season. Roll with the White Sox Wednesday.

MLB | Apr 10 '13 (7:05p) New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies -125 at BetOnline
15* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -125 The Philadelphia Phillies have lost their first two series of the season to the Braves and Royals 1-2 each. They have a chance to win their first series of the season against the New York Mets tonight, and I fully expect them to take advantage. I especially like the Phillies' chances of winning Game 3 tonight considering the edge they have on the mound. Kyle Kendrick is 5-5 with a 3.00 ERA in 12 career starts against New York, while Jeremy Hefner is 1-1 with a 15.00 ERA in two career starts against Philadelphia, both of which came last year. The Mets are 0-4 in their last 4 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Phillies are 44-21 in their last 65 Wednesday games. Philadelphia is 6-1 in Kendrick's last 7 starts vs. NL East opponents. Bet the Phillies Wednesday.

MLB | Apr 10 '13 (7:10p) Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins +146 at BetOnline
15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins +146 The Miami Marlins will be hungry for a win tonight as they look to avoid getting swept by the Atlanta Braves. They lost the first two games of this series by a combined three runs, and I look for them to bounce back with a victory in Game 3. Alex Sanabia is the reason for Miami's lone victory this season. He went 6 shutout innings in a 7-5 victory at New York on April 5th in his lone start this season. Sanabia sports a 3.86 ERA in three career starts against Atlanta. Mike Minor is 1-2 with a 5.04 ERA in seven career starts against Miami. This play falls into a system that is 63-34 (64.9%) since 1997 with $1,000/game bettors winning $31,400. It tells us to bet on home teams (MIAMI) - off 4 straight losses vs. division rivals against opponent off a one run win over a division rival. Take the Marlins Wednesday.

MLB | Apr 10 '13 (8:10p) Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals	Minnesota Twins +136 at 5dimes
15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins +136 The Minnesota Twins come into this game with the Kansas City Royals highly motivated for a victory. That's because they have dropped the first two games of this series, and they are looking to salvage it and avoid the sweep with a Game 3 victory. I like their chances of getting Game 3 tonight considering that Kansas City starter Wade Davis has never proven that he can handle starting in this league. He struggled Friday at Philadelphia in his first start since 2011, giving up four runs on nine hits and exiting down 4-0 after four innings. Minnesota is a very profitable 24-22 (+13.3 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. Kansas City is 2-10 (-8.7 Units) against the money line in home games in April games over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Twins Wednesday.

MLB | Apr 10 '13 (10:10p) Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners	Houston Astros +153 at BetOnline
15* AL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros +153 The Seattle Mariners should not be this heavily favored against any team in the league unless Felix Hernandez is on the mound. That's especially the case with Blake Beavan on the mound for them tonight. Beavan is 16-17 with a 4.46 ERA over his three-year career with Seattle. He has opened the 2013 campaign poorly, allowing five earned runs over 5 innings in an 8-7 victory at Chicago. While Brad Peacock has only made three career starts before, he has made the most of them. He is 2-1 with a 1.65 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in those three outings. The Astros come in with a ton of confidence after their massive 16-9 victory over the Mariners last night. This play falls into a system that is 33-12 (73.3%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against any team (SEATTLE) - poor AL offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA>=5.00), after a loss by 6 runs or more. Take the Astros Wednesday.

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NBA Basketball Premium Picks

-= TOP PLAY =-

NBA | Apr 10 '13 (7:05p) Milwaukee Bucks vs Orlando Magic	Orlando Magic +5-105 at 5dimes
20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +5 The Orlando Magic should not be an underdog to the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. Milwaukee is all but locked into the No. 8 seed, which means it will be facing Miami in the first round of the playoffs. Knowing that their fate is already sealed, the Bucks won't show up for this game tonight. They'll be more interested in resting their players in these final few games than winning them. Orlando continues to battle down the stretch as it tries to avoid finishing with the league's worst record. While it has lost five straight coming in, all five losses came on the road with four of them to playoff contenders in Atlanta, Houston, San Antonio and Chicago. Plus, four of those five losses came by 9 points or less, so they were right there with a chance to win. Milwaukee is 1-10 ATS versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting <=21 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The Bucks are 1-11 ATS after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The Bucks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Magic are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference. Milwaukee is 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. These five trends combine for a 36-2 system backing Orlando. Bet the Magic Wednesday.

-= TOP PLAY =-

NBA | Apr 10 '13 (8:05p) Brooklyn Nets vs Boston Celtics	Total 193 un-110 at BMaker
20* Nets/Celtics ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 193 The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle on National TV tonight when these two get together on ESPN. Both teams have a lot to play for as each is trying to improve its seeding. Brooklyn is coming close to clinching the No. 4 spot and home-court advantage in the first round. Boston is trying to avoid dropping to the No. 8 spot, which would mean it would have to face Miami in the first round. One look at the recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. In their two most recent meetings, the Nets and Celtics combined for 169 points on December 25th, and 178 points on November 28th. In fact, the UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings with combined scores of 178 or less points eight times. The UNDER is 6-1 in Nets last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

NBA | Apr 10 '13 (10:05p) New Orleans Hornets vs Sacramento Kings

Total 201½ ov-107 at 5dimes

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Hornets/Kings OVER 201.5 This is a meaningless game for both the New Orleans Hornets and Sacramento Kings. That's why I believe neither team will be getting after it defensively, which will allow for a high-scoring battle. I fully expect both teams to eclipse the 100-point mark in this one. One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that there is some value with the OVER tonight folks. Both meetings this season have seen 205 or more combined points. New Orleans beat Sacramento 110-95 at home on February 24th in their most recent meeting. The Hornets also beat the Kings 114-105 on January 21st for 219 combined points. Sacramento is 11-1 to the OVER in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points over the last 3 seasons. It is seeing an average of 214.4 points/game in this spot. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

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Bob Balfe

Braves -155

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Chris Jordan
200* KC