4-11-13

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MLB weather: April showers could continue Thursday

More rain in Detroit and Cleveland with some possible showers in Boston. Here are the projected weather reports for Thursday's MLB games:

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers (+126, -137, 8)
Site: Comerica Park

There will be an 80 percent chance of rain at game time. Temperatures will be in the mid 30s. Winds will blow around 19 mph from left field to right field.

New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Indians
Site: Progressive Field

There will be a 90 percent chance of rain and thunder at game time. Temperatures will be in the low 50s. Eleven mph winds will blow from right field to left field.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox (+106, -115, 9.5)
Site: Fenway Park

Temperatures will be in the mid 40s and there will be a 40 percent chance of showers.

Chicago White Sox vs. Washington Nationals (+143, -155, 8)
Site: Nationals Park

Skies will be cloudy and temperatures will be in the low 70s. Winds will blow in from right field at 13 mph.

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See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN

Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Lookahead spot

The Baltimore Orioles wrap up a three-game set with the Boston Red Sox Thursday before a much-anticipated rematch with the New York Yankees, starting Friday. New York knocked Baltimore out of the playoffs in the AL Divisional Series last fall and will march ace C.C. Sabathia - 0-2 with a 6.38 ERA in three starts vs. the O’s in 2012 – to the bump for Friday’s opener.

Baltimore will already have its bags packed for that trip to the Big Apple when its faces Boston righty Alfredo Aceves Thursday. Aceves is a reliever-turned-starter due to the injury to John Lackey but has a stellar record versus the Orioles, going 5-2 with 2.38 ERA for his career.

Letdown spot

The Chicago Bulls are trying to charge their way into a Top 4 playoff spot and avoid starting on the road in the opening round. Chicago hosts the streaking New York Knicks Thursday, hoping to snap the Knicks’ 13-game winning streak (12-1 ATS). And if one team knows a thing or two about snapping streaks, it’s the Bulls, who halted the Miami Heat’s 27-game winning run last month.

Following that huge home game, Chicago hits the road to face the lowly Toronto Raptors Friday. The Bulls fell to the Raptors, 101-98 as 3.5-point home favorites, Tuesday and have failed to cover in both meetings with Toronto this season. In fact, Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last seven clashes with the Raps.

Schedule spot

The Buffalo Sabres have a nasty love-hate relationship brewing with the Buffalo faithful, with fans booing their team in a recent home win over the New Jersey Devils. Forward Steve Ott blasted the crowd on local radio, saying that this happens far too often and that he’s never seen anything like it outside of the First Niagara Center.

The Sabres open up a three-game, four-night stand versus the Montreal Canadiens Thursday, then welcome Philadelphia Saturday and Tampa Bay on Sunday. Buffalo is 8-7-2-1 as a host this year, scoring 2.61 goals for and allowing 2.94 goals against per home game.

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Is there any value betting Tiger at the Masters?
By JON CAMPBELL

During Covers’ weekly spot on TSN Radio’s Inside The Lines this past Sunday, co-host Arnie Spanier asked me for my Masters picks.

"You could say Tiger, but we'll laugh at you,” he said. “We know he's going to be on the leaderboard. There's no value in that.”

I gave Matt Kuchar (33-1) as my long shot play, but I also argued that I didn’t agree that there is no value in taking Tiger.

A day before the tournament is set to begin, you can find Tiger being offered anywhere between 3-1 and 5-1. And though that may not sound like much for a golf tournament where it’s man vs. the field, some historical context may change your mind.

If you truly believe that Tiger is “back”, you have to look at when he had never left.

He won his last major at the 2008 U.S. Open, a year in which he won four events, nearly $6 million in prize money and finished runner-up at the Masters.

Tiger was set as a +110 favorite to win at Augusta that year.

Plus one-ten!

It sounds absurd looking back now, but patrons lined up at the sportsbooks to play it and they very nearly cashed in.

So far this year, Woods has won three tournaments in five events and he's piled up almost $4 million in cash. You could argue that he's not officially "back" but I'm not sure who'd listen.

And I can assure you that if Tiger wins Sunday, you won’t find a book from New York to Macau offering him at 5-1 to win a major any time soon.

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The 2013 Masters: Golf betting preview and picks
By MATT FARGO

The Masters is considered by many as the unofficial start of the golf betting season and while avid golf fans live for this weekend, even non-golf enthusiasts know about this epic tournament.

Famed Augusta National plays host to its 77th Masters this week. Back in the day, hitting the ball a mile would be the greatest asset a player could have. And even though the yardage has increased from 6,985 yards in 2001 to 7,435 yards today, bombing it is no longer the edge.

Ball striking, hitting greens and putting are the biggest factors in succeeding. Only three times in the last 12 years has the winner finished outside the Top 22 in driving accuracy and only twice have they finished out of the Top 10 in greens in regulation.

It is hard to go against Tiger Woods (+300) since he’s playing like the Tiger of old. He had his worst finish in a major as a professional here last year as his putting was horrific. That is no longer the case and he leads the tour in strokes-gained putting. He has won at Augusta four times and, even though the last was in 2005, he just looks ready. Three wins in 2013 will do that.

Despite being ranked third in the world, Justin Rose (+2,500) is not getting a lot respect here. He has not finished lower than T8 in his three medal play events on the PGA Tour this year, including a solo second at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last time out. He has also cracked the Top 25 in 12 straight starts worldwide. Rose has never missed the cut at Augusta and has finished T11 and T8 the last two years.

Keegan Bradley (+2,500) knows how to win a major, taking the 2011 PGA Championship, even though the Masters is a totally different ballgame. After a relatively slow start to the season, he is peaking at the right time with finishes of T10, T3, seventh and T4 over his last four starts. He was a Masters rookie a year ago but still finished T27 and that was only because of a Friday 77.

Is it finally time for Lee Westwood (+2,500) to win a major? He has knocked on the door numerous times but because he’s been overtaken in the world ranking by others, he is no longer the best player without a major win on his resume. He’s still very good and has had success at Augusta. His last three starts have resulted in a T3, T11 and solo second. Westwood has fallen off the radar which has given him value.

Jason Day (+6,000) is getting incredible value as he looks to be back to his old self. No Australian has ever won the Masters but two years ago, Day, Adam Scott and Geoff Ogilvy all placed in the Top 4 with Day sharing runner-up. He has not missed a cut this year and has three Top 10s. He hasn’t been at his best over his last three starts but a week off hopefully has recharged the batteries.

Bo Van Pelt (+10,000) will be the long-shot pick this week. He’s not playing his best but a return to Augusta can help with that. He’s played at the Masters only three times and after missing the cut in 2005, he responded with a T8 in 2011 and a T17 last year thanks to a Sunday 64 which was the low round of the entire tournament. Carrying that memory into this week could be the spark he needs.

Recommended tournament win six pack at the Masters (all for one unit)

Tiger Woods (+300)
Justin Rose (+2,500)
Keegan Bradley (+2,500)
Lee Westwood (+2,500)
Jason Day (+6,000)
Bo Van Pelt (+10,000)

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The Masters 2013
by Steven Bennet

The Masters Prop Bets

Tees Off: Thursday, April 11
Augusta National Golf Course – Augusta, GA

Will Rory McIlroy make the cut?: NO (+500)
Obviously, if McIlroy’s on, he’s a contender to take home the green jacket. But between his collapse at Augusta two years ago, a disappointing T40 finish last year, and his meltdown at the Honda Classic a month ago, it’s not out of the question that he’ll fall apart early at Augusta.

Phil Mickelson finishing position: UNDER 10.5 (-115)
There are theories that lefties have an advantage at Augusta, as five of the past 10 winners have been lefties (Mike Weir, Mickelson three times and Bubba Watson). True or not, Mickelson has always thrived at Augusta, going top-5 in four of the past five years, and finishing top-10 14 times since 1995.

Graeme McDowell first-round score: UNDER 72 (-105)
For whatever reason, McDowell has rarely started strong at Augusta. He’s gone 75, 74, 75 in the last three Masters Thursdays. But he’s off to a great start in 2013, with three top-10's among his five stroke-play starts, and most importantly his putter has been as good as it ever has this year. McDowell currently ranks 12th on the Tour in putting (.751 strokes gained). He hasn’t ranked higher than 86th over a full year since an abbreviated 2005.

Will Jason Dufner make the cut?: NO (+190)
Dufner has already missed two cuts this year, including his most recent start at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and he’ll be going out with the last group under a threat of thunderstorms on Thursday. At a nearly 2-to-1 payout, it’s a worthwhile bet that he comes up short.

Adam Scott finishing position: UNDER 19.5 (-115)
The Aussie has finished T8, T2 and T18 each of his past three trips to Augusta, and he generally plays his best golf on the biggest stages. He went T3 at the Cadillac Championship earlier this year, and has finished no worse than 15th in his past five majors.

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NBA

Hot Teams
-- Knicks won their last 13 games, covered 13 of last 14.
-- Oklahoma City won seven of its last nine games (5-2 vs spread last seven road games). Golden State won eight of its last eleven games.

Cold Teams
-- Chicago lost its last two games, covered two of last six.

Totals
-- Four of last five Chicago games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last ten Thunder games stayed under the total.

Back-to-backs
-- None.

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Bruins won five of their last six games. Islanders won seven of their last nine.
-- Washington won its last five games, allowing 11 goals.
-- Montreal won five of its last seven games. Sabres won three of their last four.
-- Penguins won 17 of their last 19 games; Tampa Bay won five of last six at home.
-- Blues won their last five games, outscoring opponents 13-5.
-- Winnipeg won its last two games, both 4-1, after losing previous five games. Panthers won four of their last five games.

Cold teams
-- Carolina lost seven in row, 14 of last 15 games.
-- Senators lost their last five games, scoring seven goals. Flyers lost last two games, both 4-1, but won last three home games, scoring 13 goals.
-- Sharks lost seven of last nine road games. Detroit is 2-4 in last six games overall.
-- Minnesota lost four of its last five games.
-- Avalanche lost nine of its last eleven games. LA is 5-6 in its last eleven, but won last two at home, allowing one goal.

Totals
-- Four of last five Islander road games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 10-3-2 in last fifteen Carolina games.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Ottawa games.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Buffalo games.
-- Under is 11-2-1 in last fourteen Pittsburgh games.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Detroit games.
-- Under is 9-2-1 in last dozen St Louis games.
-- Under is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Florida games.
-- Last seven Colorado games stayed under the total.

Series records
-- Islanders lost nine of last eleven games with Boston.
-- Capitals won three of last four games with Carolina.
-- Senators lost four of last five visits to Philadelphia.
-- Sabres won 11 of last 13 games with Montreal.
-- Lightning lost five of its last six games with Pittsburgh.
-- Sharks won five of last seven games with Detroit.
-- Blues won their last four games with Minnesota.
-- Panthers lost four of last six games with Winnipeg.
-- Kings lost five of last six games with Colorado.

Back-to-backs
-- Boston is 2-3 if it played the night before.
-- Colorado is 1-6 if it played the night before.

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Vogelsong is 5-1, 2.11 in his last eight starts.
-- Greinke is 6-0, 1.84 in his last nine starts.

-- Axelrod is 1-0, 1.37 in his last three starts.

-- Fister is 1-1, 2.22 in his last four starts.
-- Griffin is 1-0, 3.27 in his last couple starts. Vargas is 0-1, 2.41 in his last three outings.

Cold pitchers
-- Feldman is 0-1, 9.53 in his last three starts.
-- Marquis is 0-2, 7.88 in his last three starts.

-- Haren is 0-3, 8.22 in his last three starts.

-- JJohnson is 0-3, 4.68 in his last four starts.
-- McAllister is 1-2, 5.09 in his last four starts. Hughes, who was sick Wednesday, is 1-3, 5.70 in his last six starts.
-- Tillman is 0-1, 8.31 in his last couple starts. Aceves has made only nine starts since 2008, none since '11.
-- FHernandez is 1-5, 5.84 in his last eight starts. Grimm is 1-1, 11.57 in his two major league starts.

Totals
-- Four of last five San Francisco games went over the total.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six San Diego games.

-- Four of last five Washington games went over the total.

-- Four of last five Toronto games went over the total.
-- Over is 6-1-1 in first eight Bronx games.
-- Six of first eight Baltimore games went over the total.
-- Last eight Oakland games went over the total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Texas games.

Hot teams
-- Giants won six of their last eight games.
-- Dodgers won four of their last five games.

-- Washington won its last four home games, allowing eight runs.

-- Bronx won its last three games, scoring 32 runs.
-- Boston won five of its first eight games.
-- Rangers won six of their last eight games.
-- Oakland won its last seven games; they're 5-0 on road.

Cold teams
-- Padres lost six of their first eight games.
-- Cubs lost four of their last six games.

-- White Sox lost four of their last six games.

-- Blue Jays lost five of their first eight games.
-- Indians lost five of their last six games.
-- Orioles lost three of their last four games.
-- Angels lost six of their last seven games.
-- Mariners lost six of their last eight games.

Umpires
-- LA-SD-- Over is 5-0-1 in last six Holbrook games.

-- CWS-Wsh-- Road team won eight of last nine Hallion games.

-- Tor-Det-- Underdogs are 8-7 in last fifteen Hernandez games.
-- NY-Clev-- Underdogs are 9-6 in last fifteen McClelland games.
-- Balt-Bos-- 19 of last 24 Joyce games went over the total.
-- Oak-LAA-- Favorites won nine of last ten Davis games; five of his last seven games stayed under the total.

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DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

04/11/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 765-363 (.678)
ATS: 611-545 (.529)
ATS Vary Units: 1544-1369 (.530)
Over/Under: 596-562 (.515)
Over/Under Vary Units: 789-712 (.526)

New York 94, CHICAGO 93
Oklahoma City 107, GOLDEN STATE 101

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DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

04/11/13 Predictions

Season: 232-145 (.615)

BOSTON 3, N.Y. Islanders 2
Montreal vs. BUFFALO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Ottawa vs. PHILADELPHIA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
WASHINGTON 4, Carolina 2
Pittsburgh 4, TAMPA BAY 3
DETROIT 3, San Jose 2
WINNIPEG 3, Florida 2
St. Louis vs. MINNESOTA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
LOS ANGELES 3, Colorado 2

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Today's NBA Picks

Oklahoma City at Golden State

The Thunder look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning home record. Oklahoma City is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, APRIL 11 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 501-502: New York at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New York 128.343; Chicago 116.789 Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 11 1/2; 196 Vegas Line & Total: New York by 3 1/2; 190 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New York (-3 1/2); Over

Game 503-504: Oklahoma City at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 128.104; Golden State 122.923 Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 5; 200 Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 3 1/2; 204 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-3 1/2); Under

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Today's MLB Picks

Toronto at Detroit

The Tigers look to bounce back from yesterday's loss to the Jays and build on their 6-0 record in Doug Fister's last 6 starts as a home favorite. Detroit is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, APRIL 11 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: San Francisco at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Vogelsong) 17.186; Cubs (Feldman) 14.182 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 3; 7 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); No Total Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-140); N/A

Game 903-904: LA Dodgers at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Greinke) 15.215; San Diego (Marquis) 15.841 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-170); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+150); Over

Game 905-906: Toronto at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Johnson) 14.524; Detroit (Fister) 15.550 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 8 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135); Under

Game 907-908: NY Yankees at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Hughes) 15.361; Cleveland (McCallister) 15.804 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 909-910: Baltimore at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 16.074; Boston (Aceves) 15.700 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Boston (-125); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+105); Over

Game 911-912: Oakland at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Griffin) 15.512; LA Angels (Vargas) 15.834 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-130); Under

Game 913-914: Texas at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Grimm) 15.147; Seattle (Hernandez) 15.748 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: Seattle (-150); 7 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-150); Under

Game 915-916: Chicago White Sox at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Axelrod) 14.904; Washington (Haren) 16.018 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Washington (-155); 8 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-155); Over

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1016-752 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Free winner 5-1 run Thurs: under 5 Kings/Colo NHL

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Thursday

Tigers -135