4-13-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TD Pucks & Dunks (no NBA today)

2* NY Islanders -110
2* Marlins +135
2* Rocklies -105
2* A's +120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JACK JONES

MLB Baseball Premium Picks

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MLB | Apr 13 '13 (4:05p) Detroit Tigers vs Oakland A's	Detroit Tigers -117 at 5dimes
20* MLB Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Detroit Tigers -117 Rarely will you ever get Justin Verlander at this kind of price. I'll gladly take advantage and back the 2011 AL Cy Young and MVP winner at this discounted rate against the Oakland A's Saturday. Verlander is off to another solid start in 2013, going 1-1 with a 2.19 ERA and 1.217 WHIP over two starts against the Twins and Yankees. The right-hander simply owns Oakland, going 10-5 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.089 WHIP in 16 career starts. Verlander has been untouchable in his last five starts against the A's. The right-hander has gone 5-0 with a miniscule 0.49 ERA while allowing just two earned runs over 37 innings in those five outings. Brett Anderson is getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to his solid start, which has come against the lowly Mariners and Astros. The Tigers are 49-18 in Verlander's last 67 starts as a favorite. The A's are 0-5 in Anderson's last 5 starts as an underdog. The Tigers are 5-0 in Verlander's last 5 starts vs Oakland. Bet the Tigers Saturday.

MLB | Apr 13 '13 (4:05p) Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Indians	Chicago White Sox -125 at 5dimes
15* MLB Saturday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Chicago White Sox -125 The Chicago White Sox are highly motivated for a victory this afternoon against the Cleveland Indians. They have lost four straight coming in, and I look for them to bounce back with a win behind ace Chris Sale today. Sale remains one of the most underrated starters in the league after despite posting an excellent 2012 campaign. The left-hander is off to a 1-0 start this season, posting a 1.84 ERA and 1.022 WHIP in the process. Sale is 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.068 WHIP in three career starts against Cleveland. The White Sox are 3-0 against the money line in those three starts having never lost. Sale has allowed just five earned runs over 19 2/3 innings in those three outings. Take the White Sox Saturday.

MLB | Apr 13 '13 (7:10p) Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins	Total 7½ un-125 at 5dimes
15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Phillies/Mets UNDER 7.5 The books have set the bar too high tonight in this NL East contest between the Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins. I look for both Cole Hamels and Jose Fernandez to shut down the opposition in an absolute pitcher's duel. Hamels sports a 3.36 ERA and 1.133 WHIP in 24 career starts against Miami. In his last two starts against the Marlins, Hamels has allowed just one earned run over 16 innings. Fernandez is one of the best young starters in the game, and he doesn't yet get the respect from oddsmakers that he deserves. The UNDER is 25-9-1 in Hamels' last 35 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Marlins last 8 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The UNDER is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Miami. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

MLB | Apr 13 '13 (8:10p) Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Los Angeles Dodgers +112 at BetOnline
15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Dodgers +112 After dropping Game 1 of this series to the Arizona Diamondbacks, I look for the Los Angeles Dodgers to bounce back with a victory in Game 2 Saturday. I really like their chances with the underrated Hyun-Jin Ryu on the mound tonight. Most bettors aren't familiar with Ryu because he is making his MLB debut this season, but he's a lot better starter than he gets credit for. Ryu is already proving that, going 1-1 with a 2.13 ERA and 1.185 WHIP over two starts, allowing just three earned runs in 12 2/3 innings. The Dodgers are 25-7 in their last 32 Saturday games. Los Angeles is 8-1 in its last 9 games following a loss. The Diamondbacks are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Roll with the Dodgers Saturday.

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NBA Basketball Premium Picks

NBA | Apr 13 '13 (8:05p) Los Angeles Clippers vs Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis Grizzlies -3-105 at 5dimes

15* Clippers/Grizzlies NBA Saturday No-Brainer on Memphis -3 The Memphis Grizzlies sit at 54-25 on the season, yet they would be just the No. 5 seed in the West if the season were to end today. However, they are tied with the Nuggets at 54-25 for the No. 3 seed, but Denver owns the tiebreaker. With home-court advantage in the first round on the line, the Grizzlies are taking this game more seriously than the Los Angeles Clippers, who already have home-court advantage in the first round locked up after winning the Pacific Division. Memphis has saved its best basketball for last. It is 7-1 in its last eight games overall with its only loss coming on the road to the Los Angeles Lakers by a mere two points (86-84). Getting home-court advantage in the first round is huge considering that the Grizzlies are 31-8 at home this season. The Clippers are a mediocre 22-17 on the road this season, and they barely beat New Orleans 96-93 last night as a 9-point favorite. Both teams come in playing the second of a back-to-back. However, Los Angeles will be the more tired team as this will be its 3rd game in 4 days. This will only be the 2nd game in 4 days for the Grizzlies, who had two days' rest coming into last night's 82-78 road victory at Houston. Memphis is 40-17 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons. The Grizzlies are 26-9 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Clippers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Memphis is 26-10 ATS in its last 36 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the Grizzlies Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

1unit wagers / Steven Kane

Rockies(-116)

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NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
NRA 500
by Brian Graham

NASCAR races under the lights Saturday in Texas

Saturday, April 13 – 7:30 p.m. EDT
Texas Motor Speedway - Fort Worth, TX

The NASCAR field heads to Fort Worth for Saturday night's race at Texas Motor Speedway. This 1.5-mile intermediate track was built in 1996 as a quad-oval with 24-degree banking on the turns. The straights are just five degrees of banking and measure at 2,250 feet (or 0.43 miles) and 1,330 feet (0.25 miles).

This track has had a different winner in each of the past five races and eight of the past 10 starts in Fort Worth. Denny Hamlin and Carl Edwards are the only two-time winners during this stretch. Jimmie Johnson is the defending champion of this race, as he won from the pole at this track last fall. Johnson also won last week's race at Martinsville.

Odds to Win Race

Driver Odds

Jimmie Johnson 6-to-1
Kyle Busch 6-to-1
Brad Keselowski 7-to-1
Greg Biffle 7-to-1
Carl Edwards 10-to-1
Matt Kenseth 12-to-1
Kasey Kahne 12-to-1
Tony Stewart 12-to-1
Jeff Gordon 12-to-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 15-to-1
Clint Bowyer 15-to-1
Kevin Harvick 18-to-1
Martin Truex Jr. 25-to-1
Brian Vickers 25-to-1
Mark Martin 30-to-1
Joey Logano 30-to-1
FIELD (Any other driver) 50-to-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 50-to-1
Kurt Busch 50-to-1
Ryan Newman 60-to-1
Paul Menard 75-to-1
Jamie McMurray 75-to-1
Marcos Ambrose 100-to-1
Aric Almirola 100-to-1
Jeff Burton 100-to-1
Trevor Bayne 100-to-1
A.J. Allmendinger 100-to-1
Danica Patrick 100-to-1
Casey Mears 100-to-1
Juan Montoya 100-to-1

Drivers to Watch

Matt Kenseth (12/1) - When it comes to 1.5-mile tracks, look no further than Kenseth, who has won two of the past four such races (Kansas '12, Las Vegas '13) while placing fourth in the last race at Texas Motor Speedway. That marked his fifth straight top-5 finish at Texas, as he won in the spring of 2011, then placed fourth in the fall and fifth in the spring of 2012. Kenseth, who also won at this track in 2002, has finished worse than ninth place in just two of the past 15 starts in Texas, banging out four runner-ups during this span. His double-digit odds make him clearly the best driver to wager on this Saturday night.

Kasey Kahne (12/1) - Another driver with identical odds and a great chance to win on Saturday is Kahne. Before a disappointing 25th-place finish in last fall's Texas race, Kahne had placed 3rd and 7th on this track. This is in addition to a win in 2006 and runner-up in 2004, his first career start in Fort Worth. Kahne also has a pair of top-4 finishes in his past four races on 1.5-mile tracks, finishing fourth in Kansas last year and was runner-up to Kenseth in Las Vegas earlier this season. And with an average finish of 4.0 over his past four races this season (2nd, 1st, 9th and 4th), Kahne is also a wise wager at 12-to-1 odds.

Kevin Harvick (18/1) - This is the best value pick on the board, as Harvick placed ninth in both Texas races last season, lowering his average finish at this track to 11.5 since 2006, where he's knocked out nine top-10's in 14 starts. He's also been among the top-11 drivers in each of the past 1.5-mile races, and has been racing strong since his season-opening crash at Daytona. In Harvick's past five starts, he's finished no worse than 14th despite starting better than 14th just twice during this span.

Greg Biffle (7/1) - Of the four drivers with odds less than 10-to-1, Biffle is the best pick of the foursome. Not only is he the defending champion of this spring race, but he's ripped off NINE straight top-10's at this track, six of those which were top-5's. He also placed 5th at Homestead in the last 1.5-mile track of the 2012 season before struggling in Las Vegas earlier this year and placing 17th. But since the disappointment in Vegas, Biffle finished 11th in Bristol, 6th in Fontana and 9th at Martinsville last week.

Joey Logano (30/1) - If you're looking for a darkhorse, take a flier on Logano. He placed 11th in last fall's race at this track, and then finished 14th and 12th in the most recent two 1.5-mile tracks. He's also been giving himself better chances to win with three straight top-10 starting positions, including two races ago when he began sixth and finished third at Fontana. Logano's odds are long enough here to warrant dropping a one-unit wager on in hopes of a huge payoff.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Price, Lester Open Series Saturday in Boston

First pitch: Saturday, 1:05 p.m. ET
Line: Boston -110, Tampa Bay +100, Total: 8

A pair of left-handed aces take the mound on Saturday afternoon when the Jon Lester and the Red Sox host reigning Cy Young Award winner David Price and the Rays.

These clubs were supposed to begin a four-game series on Friday night, but rain forced a postponement (to June 18). Tampa Bay started what was to be a 10-game road trip in Texas, but dropped two straight games to the Rangers before winning 2-0 on Wednesday. Boston began a two-series homestand with a 3-1 win over the Orioles on Monday, but lost the final two games of the series. Although these teams split 18 games last season 9-9, the Rays have played very well at Fenway Park in the past two seasons, going 12-6, including a 5-1 record in the final six games of 2012 in Boston.

The Rays have struggled offensively this season with just 3.6 runs per game, a .227 average and four home runs in nine contests. These offensive numbers have been much worse on the road, where they scored just 2.3 runs per game with a .179 BA in the three-game series in Arlington. Both OF Ben Zobrist (.364 BA, 9 RBI) and 3B Evan Longoria (.345 BA, .444 OBP) have hit well, but SS Yunel Escobar (3-for-30, 8 K), OF Sam Fuld (2-for-18, 3 K), OF Matt Joyce (4-for-23, 4 K) and 2B Kelly Johnson (4-for-22, 3 K) are all regulars hitting below .200. Although the Rays bullpen has been lit up so far this season (5.84 ERA, 1.46 WHIP), it was much better on the road against the Rangers with a 2.25 ERA despite a poor 1.50 WHIP.

Speaking of struggling, David Price (0-1, 8.18 ERA, 2.00 WHIP) has been battered in his first two outings of 2013. To open the season, Price was hit hard early against the Orioles, but settled down to finish with 2 ER allowed on nine base-runners over six innings. His most recent outing was just abysmal though, as he allowed eight runs on 10 hits (2 HR) in just five innings of work against Cleveland on Sunday. He walked three and struck out three in the 13-0 defeat. Price now makes his first road start of the season, after going 13-3 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 18 away outings last season, leading his team to a 13-5 record (72%) in these games. Price has also fared very well at Fenway Park in his career, sporting a 4-1 record with a 2.22 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over seven starts, while holding the Red Sox to a .203 BA and .291 slugging percentage in their hitter-friendly ballpark. Overall, Price is 8-4 (team is 10-5) with a 3.08 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 8.0 K/9 in 15 career starts in this series. 2B Dustin Pedroia (.323 BA, .933 OPS in 36 plate appearances) and OF Jacoby Ellsbury (.286 BA, .953 OPS in 23 PA) have both hit Price hard, but OF Daniel Nava (1-for-15, 7 K), 3B Pedro Ciriaco (1-for-10, 5 K) and 1B Mike Napoli (3-for-14, 10 K) have all dreaded facing the Rays' left-hander in their careers.

The Red Sox's offense has been decent this season with 5.1 runs per game and a .341 on-base percentage (7th in majors), but they really struggled in the series against Baltimore with 3.3 runs per game and a .196 batting average. OF Jackie Bradley Jr. (3-for-25, 8 K), 1B Mike Napoli (.211 BA, 12 K in 38 AB) and OF Jonny Gomes (3-for-15, 4 K) have been the most disappointing hitters on this club, but SS Jose Iglesias (.450 BA, 9-for-20), OF Daniel Nava (.421 BA, 3 HR, 7 RBI) and OF Shane Victorino (12-of-36, 5 RBI) have all surpassed expectations thus far. Boston's bullpen has been shaky though, carrying a 4.71 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 28.2 innings. This includes a woeful 6.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 10 innings in the last series at home.

After a subpar 2012 campaign where he sported a career-worst 4.82 ERA, Jon Lester (2-0, 1.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) has been masterful this season in winning his first two decisions. He gave up two runs in five innings against the Yankees to start the year, and then completely shut down Toronto's powerful lineup on Sunday with seven shutout innings, surrendering just five hits and zero walks while striking out six batters. But Lester hasn't had great success versus the Rays in his career, going 10-8 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. In two starts last season, Lester was touched up for 10 runs in 10 innings of work, as he served up five home runs. But the current Tampa Bay roster hasn't done much against Lester outside of SS Yunel Escobar (.304 BA in 29 plate appearances) and C Jose Molina (.333 BA in 17 PA), as 2B Sean Rodriguez is 2-for-16 with 7 K against the left-hander, while the big bats of 3B Evan Longoria (.231 BA, 13 K in 45 PA) and OF Ben Zobrist (.229 BA, 15 K in 41 PA) have also been rather quiet against Lester.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVID BANKS

Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Runs could be hard to come by on Saturday night when right hander Johnny
Cueto and the Cincinnati Reds (5-4) pay a visit to southpaw Jeff Locke and the
Pittsburgh Pirates (3-6) at PNC Field in Pittsburgh, PA at 7:05 ET in a
game televised on MLB Network. The Pirates are dead last in the National League
in batting with a woeful .153 team batting average and they do not figure
to suddenly get well vs. the tough Cueto. The Reds are only 11th in the
National League in batting and their heavily left-handed lineup may have its
struggles with the young lefty Locke, who made the Pittsburgh rotation with an
excellent spring.

Cueto garnered some Cy Young consideration last season when he finished
19-9 with a spiffy 2.78 ERA and 1.17 WHIP and an excellent ratio of 170
strikeouts against 49 walks. Well, through two starts this young season, he already
has similar numbers with a 2.77 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, albeit through just 13
innings, with a 15-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Cueto has steadily increased
his strikeout rate and decreased his walk rate over the last few years and
last year was the second straight season that he had an ERA under 3.00 as he
put up a 2.31 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over 24 starts in 2011, and the best news
is that he is still just 27 years of age. Not surprisingly, Cueto has had
amazing success vs. the weak-hitting Pirates throughout his career, going 12-4
in 19 starts against them with a 2.54 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 112 strikeouts vs.
35 walks in 120.2 innings while holding Pittsburgh hitters to a .214 batting
average. He also has the support of a Cincinnati bullpen that has recorded
a 2.97 ERA while yielding just a .217 opponents' batting average.

The young left-hander Locke was a former second round draft pick by the
Atlanta Braves and was traded to the Pirates as part of the Nate McLouth trade.
He clinched his spot in the Pittsburgh rotation by tossing six scoreless
innings vs. the New York Yankees in his final spring training start, and he
now hopes to fulfill his ranking by Baseball America as one of the top 10
pitching prospects in baseball. Locke was only decent in his first start vs. the
Dodgers on the road on Sunday allowing four runs in six innings, but he now
figures to improve with that start under his belt and facing a lefty laden
lineup should also help. If he is need of relief, the bullpen has been the
strongest part of the Pittsburgh team for a couple of years and it just might
be again this year even with last year's closer Joel Hanrahan now with the
Boston Red Sox. That Pirate bullpen is second in the National League with a
2.05 ERA while limiting the opposition to a microscopic .162 batting
average. As you might expect, the 'under' is 6-3 in all Pittsburgh games so far.

The 'under' is 18-6-5 in the last 19 head-to-head meetings. The 'under' is
also 17-5-1 in the last 23 Pittsburgh home games, as well as 18-7-1 in
Cueto's last 26 starts for Cincinnati.

Pick: UNDER 7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Greg Shaker

Saturday Twitter Play #1: #906 St Louis Cardinals Team Total Over 4 -130

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Seabass Report for Saturday:
50 Blue Jays
50 Oakland
50 UNDER Phillies
50 LA Clippers
200 NY Rangers

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Sports Cash System

UNDER 7 - Braves/Nats

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Sports Pickin'

NHL

Minnesota ML

MLB

Colorado ML
Detroit ML

NBA

Boston/Orlando Under 196 Points

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JOHN RYAN 25* MLB TITAN

Cubs

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LARRY NESS 9* WEEKEND WIPEOUT

Whitesox

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ATS Insider's Club
Basketball:
3 UNDER 201 PHOENIX/MINNESOTA 8:05PM

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Marco D'Angelo
3* Blue Jays

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Free Silver Key Pick for Saturday ML Baseball

Over 8 Total Runs, Houston at ANGELS (9:05 et)