4-14-13

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HANDICAPPING KINGS

Jimmy

baseball

arizona/la under 9 -115 (4pm)

cincinnati/pittsburgh under 7.5 -115 (130pm)

nba

dallas/new orelans over 195 (6pm)

nhl

detroit/nashville under 5 -115 (730pm)

Perry ( soccer plays)

Italy

inter/calgari under 2.5 -122 (9am)

as roma/torino over 2.5 -119 (9am)

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Denver Money NHL ML - Sunday, Apr 14 2013 5:05PM

ML 54 BUFFALO (-125) over TAM double-dime bet

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BOB BALFE

Reds -140 over Pirates
Latos/Irwin
The Reds hit a little slump here, but still are a much better baseball team with the better starting pitcher today. Pittsburgh has found their bats a little bit here over the weekend, but still are the worst team in baseball at putting the ball in play. Cincinnati needs a big win here and should get it with ease. Take the Reds

Nets -3.5 over Raptors
There is really not much to play for in the final days of the NBA season. There are a few teams that could move up or down in the playoff seeding, but more or less the East is locked up. The Nets have been playing great offense as of late. I do like the heart of Toronto as they have been playing well with nothing to play for and with a few key injuries. Brooklyn should just be too strong of a matchup today. Take the Nets.

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Around the Rink: Sunday's NHL Betting Notes

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Sunday’s NHL action:

Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues (-111, 5)

Probable starting goaltenders: Ray Emery (CHI), Brian Elliott (STL)

Blues G Brian Elliott recorded three consecutive shutouts before watching rookie Jake Allen struggle in the Blues' 4-1 loss to Columbus on Friday. The setback snapped a six-game winning streak for sixth-place St. Louis, which sits one point behind San Jose and one ahead of Minnesota in the congested Western Conference. Elliott extended his impressive shutout streak to 189 minutes, 31 seconds by leading the Blues to a 2-0 triumph over the Wild on Thursday. Chicago has won four straight and leads surging Pittsburgh by just two points in the race for the Presidents' Trophy. The under is 4-0-1 in the Blues’ last five overall.

Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres (-120, 5.5)

Probable starting goaltenders: Mathieu Garon (TB), Ryan Miller (BUF)

The Sabres have collected points in 11 of their last 16 games (8-5-3) heading into Sunday's home tilt against the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Lightning rallied from four goals down to forge a tie before dropping a 6-5 overtime loss at Washington on Saturday. Tampa Bay, which sits nine points behind the Rangers and 11 in back of Southeast Division-leading Washington, has allowed 22 goals in a 1-3-1 skid. The teams split a pair of 2-1 results at Tampa Bay earlier this season. The over is 4-1 in the Lightning’s last five overall.

Detroit Red Wings at Nashville Predators (+121, 5)

Probable starting goaltenders: Jimmy Howard (DET), Pekka Rinne (NSH)

Residing outside the top eight in the Western Conference, the Red Wings look to snap a three-game winless skid (0-1-2) on Sunday. The Music City representatives also have been singing sour notes of late, dropping five in a row and eight of nine (1-6-2) to fall seven points behind eighth-place Dallas. The Red Wings are 1-4 in the last five meetings.

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Sports Pickin'

NHL

Detroit / Nashville - Under 5 Goals

MLB

Toronto ML
San Francisco ML

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NBA

Sunday, April 14

Fullcourt press: Sunday's NBA betting notes

Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat (-9.5, 188)

Chicago is a half-game behind the Atlanta Hawks in fifth place in the East, which is the difference between starting the playoffs at Indiana or Brooklyn. The Bulls snapped the Heat’s 27-game winning streak on March 27, and did so with a brand of physical play that had Miami off its game. The Bulls frustrated James so much that eventually he barreled into a screen set by Boozer and earned himself a flagrant foul. The Heat have lost two of three to Chicago this season. Chicago F Joakim Noah (foot) is questionable.

Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors (+3.5, 194.5)

The Nets have won four straight games to pull within two games of third-place Indiana with three to play. Toronto has already had an impact on the potential playoff matchups in the East by knocking off the Chicago Bulls twice in a span of four days this week. The Raptors have won four of five overall but have dropped all three meetings with the Nets this season. The over is 10-1 in the Nets’ last 11 road games.

Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks (-4, 194)

The New York Knicks can clinch the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference by defeating the visiting Indiana Pacers. New York has won 14 of 15 games behind the scoring spree of forward Carmelo Anthony. The Pacers have lost three of four games. Indiana is 2-1 against New York this season. The Pacers routed New York 125-91 on Feb. 20 in the most recent meeting. The over is 5-1 in Indiana’s last six overall.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers (-5, 197)

Cleveland has dropped three straight games and 13 of the last 15. The Cavaliers got 31 points from Kyrie Irving on Friday but could not keep up with the New York Knicks in a 101-91 setback. Philadelphia has taken seven of the last eight in the series. The under is 9-1 in the Cavaliers’ last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic foes.

Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets (-14.5, 209)

The Denver Nuggets can set a franchise record for victories when they host the struggling Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday. Denver has matched the mark of 54 wins set twice previously and also looks to take another step toward landing the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference. The Nuggets are 36-3 at home and have won a club-record 21 straight games on the home floor. Portland has lost 10 straight games. The Trail Blazers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents.

Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Hornets (+3, 195.5)

New Orleans is limping to the finish line, having lost three straight and seven of the last nine. The Hornets' only two wins in that span have come against a pair of 24-win teams in Phoenix and Cleveland. Rookie forward Anthony Davis, the No. 1 overall pick, is done for the season after suffering a sprained knee ligament in Wednesday's lost at the Sacramento Kings. The teams have split of pair of tight matchups this season, with the road team winning each time. The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

Sacramento Kings at Houston Rockets (-10.5, 216.5)

The Rockets are in seventh place, a half-game behind sixth-place Golden State, as they look to get back on track after losing two of their last three. Houston has won eight of its past 10 contests against Sacramento. The Kings have dropped five of their last six, including a 108-101 loss at San Antonio on Friday. Sacramento is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.

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BG Sports

MLB

Reds ML -145
Royals ML -108
Twins ML -104

NBA

Cavs +5.5
Raptors +3.5
Knicks -3.5

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JOHN RYAN

25* graded play on the Baltimore Orioles as they take on the New York Yankees in Al East action set to start at 8:05 PM ET. This is the Sunday Night ESPN baseball matchup. The simulator shows a high probability that Baltimore will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-20 mark for 66% winners and has made 34.1 units per one unit wagered since 2007. Play against AL home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (NY YANKEES) with a very good starting pitcher whose ERA was 4.20 or better last season and after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs. The system has averaged a +145 dog play. I have found that these contrarian types of systems have always produced the best results. Keep in mind that the research serves only to support the grading of the play. Here is a second system supporting Baltimore and has produced a 66-39 mark for 63% winners making 42.1 units per one unit wagered since 2007. It has averaged a plus 125 dog play. Orioles are a money making 10-3 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons; 53-34 (+30.5 Units) against the money line playing solid fielding teams averaging <=0.6 errors/game over the last 2 seasons. Left-handed Wei-Yin Chen is projected to have an excellent start tonight against a very weak left-handed Yankees team. Chen has allowed a .240 batting average to the current members of the Yankees in their respective careers. He will feature an excellent change that will be used almost exclusively against RH batters. To have success against a starter like Chen, teams must adopt an opposite field approach and this is something the Yankees are just not good at doing. Take Baltimore.

Ryan’s 25* Sunday Night Baseball Titan

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Paul Leiner

100* Red Sox -140

50* Yankees -130

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Scott Delaney

20 Dime Pittsburgh

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SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Mets +101 over MINNESOTA

1st 5 innings. The Twins are 4-7 and have dropped five in a row while being outscored 33-12 over their five-game losing streak. After spending his career with three teams in the National League, Kevin Correia finds himself in the American League and he acquitted himself well in his first two starts, holding the Tigers and Royals to 15 hits and five earned runs for an ERA of 3.14. However, Correia’s xERA is 4.46 after striking out just three batters over those 14.1 frames. Unlike the Royals and Tigers, the Mets have seen him and current Mets have 30 hits against Correia in 80 career AB’s for a combined BA of .375. Then there’s the venue. Pitching in San Fran, San Diego and Pittsburgh, all pitcher friendly venues, aided Correia for 10 years. His ERA over the past two years pitching for the Pirates was 4.79 in 2011 and 4.21 in 2012. PNC Park suppresses RH HR by 31%, Target Field suppresses it by only 6% and Correia is likely to pay the price against a Mets’ club that is hitting .285 against righties and that has belted out 15 jacks in 11 games.

The Mets are 7-4. Dillon Gee was lit up in his last start in Philadelphia to the tune of 10 hits and seven earned runs in three innings, thus his 7.71 ERA in two starts. However, Gee went 6.1 innings in his season debut against the Padres and allowed just three hits and one run and that’s the Dillon Gee you can expect to see more often. Gee had few bad starts last season. He has a two-year, strong groundball bias profile (45%) and a very good line-drive profile of 18% over that same span. Gee’s combination of solid command and GB% give us an xERA that's a run and a half below his actual ERA over the past two seasons, suggesting there should be better times ahead for this skilled 27-year old. The Twinkies are hitting a combined .219 and they’ve never seen Gee, another factor that works in our favor here. Use Gee's xERA as your guide, not his actual ERA.

Texas -½ +110 over SEATTLE

1st 5 innings. Two rookies oppose one another here and while both of these starters have upside, the big difference is confidence and right now Brandon Maurer’s is shot. In his first start of the year, Maurer was fighting it the entire game versus the A’s in which he threw six innings of eight-hit ball while surrendering six runs and two bombs. In that outing he struck out one batter. Maurer was pulled after 2/3 IP against the Astros after giving up 6 earned runs in the 1st inning in his second major league start. That’s not the way one wants to begin their major league career. Chances are Maurer didn’t sleep too well last night with those two starts hanging over his head and knowing he’ll be facing the Rangers in his third start. Maurer has given up 15 hits and 12 runs in 6.2 frames (.469 BAA with a 2.40 WHIP) over his first two major league starts. It’s a small sample size but this isn’t some seasoned vet that can easily shake it off. This is a kid who is trying to stay in the rotation and these Rangers will have no sympathy.

Rangers starter Nick Tepesch allowed only one run in 7.1 innings against the Tampa Bay Rays in his major league debut this past Tuesday to become the first pitcher to give up four hits or less and a run or less in his major league debut in 7.1 innings on a date as early as April 9 since Wayne Simpson did so April 9, 1970. Tepesch earned the Rangers fifth rotation spot out of spring training as a non-roster invitee. Tepesch throws four pitches with excellent command: fastball, cutter, curve, and change-up. He creates a lot of ground balls by utilizing his height (6’4”) for good downward plane on his fastball that tops out at 94 mph. He utilizes both sides of the plate well and mixes his curveball and cutter very well into his pitch mix. Tepesch impressed observers with his poise, and more importantly recorded 16 outs on groundballs in his sparkling debut for a groundball rate of 80% on batted balls. His changeup is still a bit of a work in progress, as he has a tendency to slow his arm speed but there is a lot to like about his arsenal and composure on the mound. Perhaps most importantly, Tepesch’s solid debut bought him some extra rope and from a psychological standpoint, that’s big. Maurer’s rope is hanging by a thread.

Baltimore +114 over N.Y. YANKEES

Hiroki Kuroda continues to thumb his nose at the aging curve, flourishing despite his move to the AL. Kuroda’s skills even took a step up in a tough ballpark last year, especially in the second half. Thing is, Kuroda has averaged over 200 innings in each of the past three years and all the signs suggest he’s about to pay the price for taxing his arm. In two starts, Kuroda has walked five and struck out seven in 6.2 frames. He didn’t make it out of the second inning against the Red Sox and barely made it through 5.1 frames against the Tribe. More troubling is that Kuroda’s line-drive rate is up five percentage points and his groundball rate is down seven percentage points. Over the past three years Kuroda has had favorable strand percentages, which has allowed him to outpitch his xERA. Kuroda has been gamely fighting off the toll 600+ innings takes on a 38-year old arm but the percentage play is to heed this arm, as it could all go quickly for him this season.

Wei-Yin Chen is now 0-2 after two starts, losing on the road to both Tampa Bay and Boston. Last year, the success of the Orioles drove statheads crazy as it appeared that they were winning with smoke and mirrors but there was nothing fluky about Chen's performance in 2012. Chen demonstrated solid skills all season with his control, strikeout rate and command, all dramatically improving across the board in the second half. He was pitching very well in his last start at Fenway until the seventh inning when Daniel Nava hit a three-run homer over the Green Monster to break Chen's shutout. For the day, 70 of his 107 pitches were strikes and that’s right in line with his career command of the strike zone in both the majors and the Japan league. Chen has a career 1.17 WHIP in his 34 career starts at this level and has a very good chance of success here against a Yankees club that is batting just .200 against southpaws this season.

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"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee lost on Saturday with the Royals -$118/Blue Jays.

For Sunday "Mr Chalk" is coming right back with the Royals -$110/Blue Jays.

"Mr Chalk" is 10-3 + $592 for the 2013 MLB Regular Season.

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Chris Jordan

200♦ Dog of the Day

Pittsburgh Pirates ML

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Ultra Sports

San Francisco -115
Arizona -115
Tampa Bay +130
Kansas City -110

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DENVER MONEY

2* Chicago White Sox -130