4-22-13

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Stephen Nover MLB RunLine Mon, 04/22/13 - 8:10 PM

dime bet - 971 SEA -1.5 (-105) vs 972 HOU

Stephen Nover MLB ML - Monday, Apr 22 2013 6:30PM
2* OAKLAND (+110) vs 964 Boston double-dime bet

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Erin Rynning

20* MLB RAYS

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Lee Earnest 4/22

Memphis +6

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Tim Donaghy

Grizzlies/Clippers UNDER 182

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Where the action is: Public pads faves, sharps haven't shown up

Early money is coming in on the NBA home favorites Monday after host teams went 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS this past weekend.

Monday’s NBA playoff slate features just two games, Chicago at Brooklyn and Memphis at Los Angeles, and both the Nets and Clippers have been bet up off the original spread. Brooklyn opened as low as a 4-point favorite versus Chicago and is now as high as -5. Los Angeles has climbed from -5 to -6 in Game 2 against Memphis.

“It’s been kids on the favorites,” Jeff Sherman, assistant manager at the LVH superbook in Las Vegas, told Covers, alluding to a lack of sharp money. “And with all eight home faves winning outright this weekend, we expect more moneyline favorite money, straight and parlays, to continue.”

The Nets turned heads with a dominant performance against the Bulls in Game 1 Saturday, holding Chicago to only 89 points, including just 35 at the half. According to John Avello, director of race and sportsbook at the Wynn Las Vegas, the money is coming in on Brooklyn, which is a change of pace from Game 1.

“There’s a little bit of Brooklyn money now but we had a little bit of Chicago money before the series started,” Avello told Covers. “But after that Game 1 showing, the believers aren’t believing anymore. I don’t think we’ll see that sort of showing tonight. I think (the Bulls) come with a better effort.”

As for the total for Chicago-Brooklyn, the number has stayed relatively steady after opening at 183 points. Some markets have tacked on an extra half-point after the teams topped the 181.5-point total in Game 1.

In the Western Conference, Los Angeles is also coming off a one-sided win, defeating Memphis 112-91. That final score is a bit of a shocker for some NBA fans, who expected this No. 4-versus-No. 5 series to be the most competitive of the first round. Much like the Brooklyn-Chicago game, sharp money hasn't shown its face yet for this 10:30 p.m. ET tipoff.

“I didn’t think the first game was indicative of how this series will go,” says Avello. “I expect Memphis to be around in this game and for it to be a closer contest. It could close at -6 or it could close at -5. I could see some plays on the underdog here. I think the underdog is live.”

The total for Game 2 is also on the move, dropping from 181.5 to as low as 179.5 as of Monday afternoon. However, some shops are hovering around the opening number with money coming in on the over. The teams combined for 203 points and blew the 178.5-point number out of the water in Game 1. According to Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag, 92 percent of their total wagers have been on the over.

“I could see us moving the total on this game a point and a half if we do not see any money come in on the under leading up to game time,” Stewart told Covers.

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JACK JONES

NBA Basketball Premium Picks

-= TOP PLAY =-

NBA | Apr 22 '13 (8:00p) CHICAGO GM2 vs BROOKLYN GM2	CHICAGO GM2 +5-110 at SIA
20* Bulls/Nets TNT Monday No-Brainer on Chicago +5 The Chicago Bulls are showing great value as a 5-point underdog to the Brooklyn Nets Monday. After getting blown out in Game 1, I look for the Bulls to bounce back with an outright victory in Game 2, but I'll take the points for some insurance. I believe Brooklyn's 106-89 Game 1 victory was simply an aberration. Chicago had won three of the four meetings during the regular season. Its only loss was a 4-point setback at Brooklyn. The Bulls have been one of the most resilient teams in the league ever since Tom Thibodeau took over as head coach. Thibodeau is 50-31 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of Chicago. P.J. Carlesimo hasn't been the best motivator following a blowout win throughout his coaching career. Carlesimo is in home games after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half in all games he has coached since 1996. His teams are losing 89.2 to 96.2 on average in this spot. Bet the Bulls Monday.

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MLB Baseball Premium Picks

MLB | Apr 22 '13 (8:10p) Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros

Houston Astros +157 at BetOnline

15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros +157 The Houston Astros should not be this big of a home underdog to the Seattle Mariners. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at an excellent price Monday night. Not many bettors have even heard of Houston's Brad Peacock, which is why he continues to go under the radar, getting disrespected from oddsmakers. While he has only made five career starts and one relief appearance in his career, Peacock has gone 3-1 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.208 WHIP over 25 2/3 innings. Felix Hernandez gets too much respect from oddsmakers. While he has posted good numbers throughout his career, Hernandez has just a 55.9 winning percentage because he has been on some bad teams. He is on another bad team in 2013. This play falls into a system that is 37-13 (74%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against any team (SEATTLE) - very bad AL offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a team with a below avg. bullpen (ERA>=4.50), after allowing 10 runs or more. Seattle is 17-40 (-20.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last 3 seasons. Hernandez is 4-14 (-12.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last 2 seasons. Take the Astros Monday.

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Jimmy Boyd

4* (MLB) Colorado Rockies ML +110
4* (NBA) Chicago Bulls +5

3* (MLB) Miami Marlins ML +136

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Ultra Sports

MLB

San Fran -120 list Vogelsong vs. Miley (Top Play)
Oakland +124 list Griffin vs. Doubront
San Diego +110 list Marquis vs Lohse
St Louis -105 Action vs Haren

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Anthony Redd

Monday


One and Only
100 Dime
Total of the Year
Grizzlies - Clippers

OVER CLIPPERS

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Godfather Locks

MLB
Tampa Bay Rays

NBA
Bulls

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SuperSportsGroup MLB - 4/22

Oakland v. Boston 6:35pm
PICK: UNDER 8.5 Game -110

NY v. Tampa Bay 7:10pm
PICK: UNDER 7 Game +100

Arizona v. San Fran 10:15pm
PICK: OVER 7 Game +105

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root

millionaire grizzlies

no limit bulls

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DHayes 3* Reds

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Mike Hook

3* Grizzlies
2* Bulls
2* SF Giants
2* Braves

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SCOTT LANDAU MONDAY MLB:
PHI +111
CUB +150
ARZ +111
CSOX +110
HOU +160

Time to type one Stat: SEA is 0-4 this Season and 29-73 since 09/2010 if they allowed 7+ Runs in their previous Game.