4-26-13

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Friday's NBA playoff action: What bettors need to know

New York Knicks at Boston Celtics (-3, 182.5)

New York leads series 2-0.

The New York Knicks feature the league's leading scorer in Carmelo Anthony, but it's the team's defense that has driven home one point to the Boston Celtics: You can't win if you can't score. Boston will attempt to dig out of a 2-0 hole in the best-of-seven Eastern Conference series when they host the Knicks on Friday night. It figures to be an emotionally charged atmosphere in the first home game for the Celtics since the Boston Marathon bombings.

Anthony has done his part by pouring in 70 points in the first two games, but New York has taken control by suffocating Boston in the second half of each contest. The Celtics are averaging a meager 74.5 points and have been limited to 25 and 23 points, respectively, after halftime. The latter mark tied an NBA postseason record for the fewest points scored in a half. "We know when we really buckle down on the defensive end, it's been hard for teams," Anthony understated.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN, MSG (New York), CSNNE (Boston)

ABOUT THE KNICKS: Anthony has continued his brilliant play by scoring at least 30 points in nine of his last 10 games and Sixth Man of the Year J.R. Smith is delivering his typical spark off the bench to carry New York's offense. Still, one of the biggest keys for the Knicks has been guard Raymond Felton, who has totaled 29 points and is the only other player on the team to score in double figures in both games. "He's killing us," Celtics coach Doc Rivers said. "Getting into the paint, attacking us. ... We have to do a better job on that. Wish I could make a better statement. We have to keep him out of the paint."

ABOUT THE CELTICS: One of Boston's biggest question marks entering the series was the health of center Kevin Garnett, who missed 10 of the final 13 games of the regular season with a sprained ankle. Garnett has scored 22 points in the first two games and was saddled with foul trouble throughout Tuesday's 87-71 loss. Complicating matters is that the Garnett suffered a hip injury in Game 2, which Rivers likened to a hip-pointer in football. Rivers pronounced Garnett is "good to go," while noting how problematic the early fouls were in Game 2. "It hurt us, it was clear," Rivers said. "He really never was allowed to get his rhythm again."

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Boston.
* Knicks are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Boston.
* Knicks are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Road team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. New York is averaging 86 points in the series, 14 below its regular-season mark.

2. The Celtics have shot a combined 14-of-62 (22.6 percent) in the second half of the first two contests.

3. Knicks backup C Kenyon Martin has been a force on the backboards, averaging 10 rebounds in the series.

San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers (+4.5, 187.5)

San Antonio leads series 2-0.

The Los Angeles Lakers are in dire need of a victory entering Friday's Game 3 of their Western Conference playoff series against the San Antonio Spurs. However, their home court may not prove be much of an advantage if they are unable to get their guard unit out of the infirmary. Los Angeles is expected to be without its top four backcourt players Friday after starting guards Steve Nash and Steve Blake suffered hamstring injuries in Wednesday's Game 2.

The Lakers are already without superstar Kobe Bryant and top reserve guard Jodie Meeks missed Game 2 with a sprained ankle, making a comeback against the Spurs even more daunting. San Antonio had its own injury concerns entering the series, but ailing guards Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili appear to be on the mend after both were hobbled down the stretch. Parker's performance on Wednesday could be an ominous sign for Los Angeles after he broke loose for 24 of his 28 points in the second half to break the game open.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, Fox Sports Southwest (San Antonio), Time Warner Cable SportsNet (Los Angeles)

ABOUT THE SPURS: Parker was having the best season of his career until suffering a severely sprained ankle on March 1. He was the driving force during a scintillating stretch in which San Antonio won 16 of 17 games, scoring at least 30 points six times in a span of nine games to elevate himself into MVP consideration. Parker has also been fighting knee, shin and neck injuries, but he dominated the second half Wednesday and later admitted it was the best he's felt "by far" since hurting his ankle. "He's getting his rhythm back," teammate Tim Duncan said after the game. "He felt good tonight. He shot the ball well tonight. He looked like Tony of midseason tonight and that's great for us."

ABOUT THE LAKERS: Blake has been ruled out and Nash and Meeks are listed as doubtful for Friday, which fill force the Lakers to rely on second-year guards Darius Morris and Andrew Goudelock along with journeyman Chris Duhon, who did not even play Wednesday. The strategy of forcing the offense through the big men failed when center Dwight Howard encountered foul trouble and scored only six of his 16 points after halftime in Game 2. Forward Pau Gasol also disappeared in the second half, managing only three points and one rebound following a 16-point, 16-board performance in the opener. Blake could wind up being the hardest player to replace after he buried 17 3-pointers in his last five games.

TRENDS:

* Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Los Angeles.
* Under is 20-7 in the last 27 meetings.
* Spurs are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Duncan - who turned 37 Thursday - and coach Gregg Popovich surpassed Bryant and Phil Jackson on Wednesday for the most career postseason wins by a player-coach duo with 119.

2. Mike D'Antoni is the first coach in franchise history to lose his first two playoff games with the Lakers.

3. San Antonio has a 72-34 edge in bench points through the first two games.

Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors (-1, 212.5)

Series tied 1-1.

No David Lee, no problem for the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors won without their All-Star in Game 2 and will be looking to take the series lead when they host the Denver Nuggets in Game 3 on Friday. Golden State became the first team to win in Denver since January by shooting 64.6 percent in Game 2 and getting 30 points and 13 assists from Stephen Curry. The Nuggets will need to adjust to the Warriors’ smaller lineup.

Denver edged the Warriors in Game 1 on a last-second shot by Andre Miller but could not figure out a way around Golden State in Game 2. Instead of moving Carl Landry into the starting lineup when Lee went down with a torn hip flexor in Game 1, Warriors coach Mark Jackson decided to feature a three-guard attack with Jarrett Jack in the starting lineup and Harrison Barnes pushing over to power forward. The quicker lineup was able to match the Nuggets’ pace and its superior outside shooting led to a relatively easy 131-117 triumph. As long as Curry is healthy, that shooting should be a feature for Game 3.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, Altitude (Denver), Comcast SportsNet Bay Area (Golden State), ESPN2

ABOUT THE NUGGETS: Denver struggled on the glass even with Lee out and could not get out on the break in Game 2. The easy points in the paint the team thrives on were taken away, and the Nuggets struggled to 9-for-26 from beyond the arc. Kenneth Faried missed Game 1 with an ankle injury and came off the bench in Game 2 without the explosiveness that usually highlights his game. Faried getting his feet back under him would help Denver even up the rebounding discrepancy and provide someone else that can finish in the paint and make Barnes work harder on the defensive end. The Nuggets’ best performers in the opening two games have been the point guards Miller and Ty Lawson. Miller’s heroics saved Game 1 and the two combined for 37 points on Tuesday.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Curry rolled his left ankle late in the third quarter of Game 3 but came back for the start of the fourth and finished strong. The ankle swelled up after the game, and Golden State’s leading scorer sat out Thursday’s practice. Curry told reporters he would not have been able to play if the game were held on Thursday, but is still confident that he’ll be ready by tip off on Friday. Losing Curry would be a huge blow to the Warriors without Lee around. “We’re a resilient team,“ Curry said after Game 2. “When guys go down, other guys step up.” Curry, Jack and Klay Thompson overwhelmed the Nuggets on the perimeter in Game 2, totaling 77 points and 22 assists while going 10-for-17 from beyond the arc. Denver did not have an answer for Barnes’ quickness at the No. 4 spot and the rookie provided some highlight drives and dunks.

TRENDS:

* Over is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in Golden State.
* Nuggets are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Pacific.
* Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Over is 11-3-1 in Nuggets' last 15 road games.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The teams split the two meetings at Golden State during the regular season, with the Nuggets grabbing a 107-101 overtime victory on Nov. 10 and the Warriors responding with a 106-105 triumph 19 days later.

2. Golden State’s 64.6-percent shooting effort was the highest in a playoff game since the Utah Jazz shot 65.1 percent in a win over Phoenix on April 25, 1991.

3. Faried could move back into the starting lineup in Game 3.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Friday's MLB weather watch: Rain coming to Kansas City

Here's a look at Friday's notable weather in the major leagues:

Atlanta Braves vs. Detroit Tigers (-125, 7.5)
Site: Comerica Park

The wind will blow in from center field at 10 mph. The Tigers were 4-1 in 2012 at home when the wind blew in from center field.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox (-140, 8)
Site: U.S. Cellular Field

The wind will blow in from right field at 13 mph. The White Sox were 6-2 at home in 2012 when the wind blew in from right field.

Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals (-163, 8.5)
Site: Kauffman Stadium

A 73 percent chance of rain is in the forecast in Kansas City.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-186, 8.5)
Site: Busch Stadium

There's a 56 percent chance of rain and chances of thunderstorms in St. Louis.

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Three struggling pitchers desperate for good outings

Friday's MLB schedule features some pitchers coming off poor outings in their last starts.

Here are three hurlers looking to bounce back:

Scott Kazmir, Cleveland Indians (0-0, 16.20 ERA)

Kazmir made just his second start since the 2010 season on April 20 versus the Houston Astros. He gave up six earned runs on eight hits in 3 1/3 innings of work, but the Indians won the game 19-6.

The lefty pitched in the Atlantic League and in Puerto Rico in 2012 after being unable to find a big-league team that wanted his services.

His fastball is back up around 91 mph which is the same velocity he had in 2010, his last full season in the majors.

The Tribe are on the road in Kansas City on Friday. The Royals will counter with Ervin Santana.

Jonathan Sanchez, Pittsburgh Pirates (0-2, 11.12 ERA)

Sanchez is having a tough time adjusting to life in Pittsburgh. The lefty has pitched just 11 1/3 innings in three starts. He lasted just three innings in his previous start, giving up two earned runs on four hits and throwing 74 pitches in doing so.

There were even rumblings that Sanchez could make his way to the Pirates' bullpen following his poor outing last Sunday.

Sanchez's 2.29 WHIP ranks 198th in the National League, just nine spots above last-placed Josh Wall of the Los Angeles Dodgers (2.75).

The Bucs open a three-game set in St. Louis on Friday. Sanchez had one outing versus the Cards in 2012. He went 5 2/3 innings giving up six earned runs, six hits and six walks.

Aaron Harang, Seattle Mariners (0-2, 10.24 ERA)

Harang is coming off an awful start versus the Texas Rangers on April 21. The big righty threw 105 pitches in 4 2/3 innings of work, surrendering eight earned runs on eight hits. The Rangers pounded three home runs off Harang en route to the 11-3 victory.

Harang has taken the loss in both of his starts in 2013. He has yielded 15 hits in 9 2/3 innings of work thus far.

Seattle continues its series with the Los Angeles Angels at Safeco Field on Friday. Harang had a 2.08 ERA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Opposites attracting winners: A's over, ChiSox under

Two American League teams are hitting home runs for bettors, but doing it in completely different ways.

Here's a look at the best over and under team early in this MLB season:

(All stats are going into Thursday's action)

Oakland Athletics over 18-4

The Athletics are putting a new spin on Moneyball. The A's are first in baseball in runs scored (124, 5.6 per game), sixth in hits (193) and second in OPS (.783). Combine this with a pitching staff with a combined 3.99 ERA, this will lead to lots of high scoring games. Oakland has seen three totals of 8.5 this season and none above.

Any $100 bettor would be up $1,313.13 if they picked the over for each of the A's 22 games.

Chicago White Sox under 15-4-1

The White Sox are almost as successful for bettors, but are producing money in different ways. Chicago has the fifth-best ERA in the majors (3.26) and opponent batting average (.229). But the Chi Sox can't hit. They rank 27th in baseball in runs scored with 66 (3.3 per game) and 29th in OPS (.652). Chicago has seen two totals of seven twice, and none at 6.5 or under.

Any $100 bettor would be up $1,089.08 if they picked the under for each of the 19 White Sox games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Left-handed pitching sapping these MLB power bats
By JASON LOGAN

Left-handed pitching is always tough to trump, especially if you’re one of the four teams listed below.

These clubs have plenty of power in their lineups but lose that pop when facing southpaws this season. Some have been solid fades against lefties while others are providing added value on the under when stepping into the box against left-handers.

New York Yankees (.119 BA vs. LHP – 27th)

The Bronx Bombers have simply bombed against left-handers early in the season. New York ranks ninth in offense and hits an MLB-best .289 off righties, heading into Thursday’s game against Toronto (and LHP Mark Buehrle).

The Yankees are 4-3 vs. LH starters, winning +1.02 units, while posting a 1-5-1 over/under record in those games. The issues versus southpaws have Yankees bettors begging for the return of Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira, who hit left-handers especially well.

Arizona Diamondbacks (.119 BA vs. LHP – 28th)

Arizona is in the mix in the National League West thanks to great two-way baseball. The Diamondbacks rank eighth in team ERA (3.43) and 10th in runs per game, averaging 4.62 runs on .251 hitting. The offensive production takes a serious dip versus lefties.

The D-backs have totaled just 20 of their overall 97 runs off left-handed hurlers (20.6 percent) which has led to a dismal 3-8 record against LH starters, costing Arizona bettors -2.51 units. It’s also proved profitable for under bettors, with the club going 2-6 over/under when taking on a southpaw starter.

Boston Red Sox (.215 BA vs. LHP – 24th)

The Red Sox have been a pleasant surprise for Beantown bettors this April, leading the American League East and pulling in +5.85 units heading into Thursday. Boston is seventh in offense, knocking in 4.76 runs per game, and hits .267 off right-handed pitchers. That’s help build a 12-9 over/under mark on the year.

Despite their woes versus LHP, the BoSox haven’t taken that much of a step back against southpaw starters. They’re 4-2 against lefties and have won 1.37 units in those games. Perhaps the biggest difference has been the over/under count. Boston is 2-4 over/under when facing a LH starter.

Philadelphia Phillies (.210 BA vs. LHP – 26th)

For all the potential power in the lineup, the Phillies have flopped no matter which hand the pitch is coming from. Philadelphia is averaging only 3.45 runs per game on .250 hitting, which has the club dragging its feet for a 9-13 record out of the gate.

Philly backers are more than six units in the hole heading into Thursday’s schedule and nearly half of those losses have come against left-handed starters. The Phillies are just 1-3 versus LH starters, blowing -2.56 units in the process. Funny enough, the over has been the better wager in those games, going 3-1 over/under.

Note: These four clubs have a combined 8-16-1 over/under record vs. left-handed starting pitchers heading into Thursday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

English breakfast: Premier League betting notes

Here's a look at the ten games on tap in the Premier League this weekend that includes two games with ramifications for the relegation battle and a blockbuster tie between Arsenal and Manchester United.

All lines courtesy of Bet365.com.

Manchester City (2nd in table, 68 points) v West Ham (10th, 42) -400 +500 +900
Previous meeting: West Ham 0, Manchester City 0, November 3

* Manchester City will clinch a Champions League spot for next season with nine points in the final five matches.

* West Ham is safely in mid-table and face no fear of being relegated or challenging for the European places.

* Manchester City hasn't allowed a goal at home in 287 minutes in the league.

* West Ham has been held to a clean sheet eight times in 17 away matches.

Everton (6th, 56) v Fulham (11th, 40) -225 +333 +650
Previous meeting: Fulham 2, Everton 2, November 3

* Everton can still catch Tottenham for fifth, but is five points behind and Totty has a game in hand. Everton can still qualify for Europe next season if Manchester City defeats Wigan in the FA Cup final and finished sixth.

* Fulham is safely in mid-table and faces no fear of being relegated or challenging for the European places.

* Everton leading goal scorer Marouane Fellaini has scored three league goals in the previous 14 matches.

* Fulham midfielder Steve Sidwell will miss the final four games of the season after picking up a red card against Arsenal last week. He has four goals and made 28 appearances for the club in the league this season.

Southampton (12th, 39) v West Brom (8th, 45) -120 +260 +333
Previous meeting: West Brom 2, Southampton 0, November 5

* Southampton needs only one more win to ensure Premier League survival. Two teams were relegated in 2010-11 with 39 points.

* West Brom is safely in mid-table and faces no fear of being relegated or challenging for the European places.

* Southampton has improved under new manager Mauricio Pochettino. The Saints have gained 17 points in 12 matches with Pochettino, and 22 points in their previous 22 games with former manager Nigel Adkins.

* West Brom has slowed in the second half of the season. It collected 27 points in its first 13 games and 18 points in its last 20 matches.

Wigan (18th, 31) v Tottenham (5th, 61) +260 +250 +105
Previous meeting: Tottenham 0, Wigan 1, November 3

* Wigan is in the final relegation place, three points behind Aston Villa in 17th. Wigan needs as many points as possible to finish outside of the bottom three.

* Tottenham is one point behind Chelsea and two behind Arsenal with a game in hand in the race for the final two Champions League spots.

* Wigan has finished outside the relegation zone in the past three seasons by an average of 5.3 points.

* Tottenham has scored at least two goals in seven of its past eight games.

Stoke (15th, 37) v Norwich (13th, 38) +105 +220 +300
Previous meeting: Norwich 1, Stoke 0, November 3

* Stoke is six points above Wigan for the final relegation spot.

* Norwich is seven points above Wigan for the final relegation spot.

* Stoke has gained four points (1-1-6) in the past eight matches.

* Norwich has scored four goals in its past eight away games.

Newcastle (16th, 37) v Liverpool (7th, 51) +188 +250 +140
Previous meeting: Liverpool 1, Newcastle 1, November 4

* Newcastle is six points above Wigan for the final relegation spot.

* Liverpool is safely in midtable and could conceivably jump Everton for sixth in the table, which could be worth a Europa League spot next season if Manchester City win the FA Cup over Wigan.

* The over is 6-1 in Newcastle's last seven at home.

* Liverpool will be without striker Luis Suarez for the rest of the season after biting Chelsea defender Branislav Ivanovic last week. Suarez has scored 23 of Liverpool's 61 goals (37 percent) in the league.

Sunday
Reading (20th, 24) v QPR (19th, 24) +163 +230 +170
Previous meeting: QPR 1, Reading 1, November 4

* Both teams are seven points away from 18th-place Wigan. A draw will do neither team good if they are to make it out of the relegation zone.

* QPR's great escape has gotten off to a terrible start, collecting only one point in the past five games.

* Reading's goal scoring rate is up in the past nine games (five goals scored) than to the rest of its campaign (nine goals in 29 games).

Chelsea (4th, 62) v Swansea (9th, 42) -300 +400 +900
Previous meeting: Swansea 1, Chelsea 1, November 3

* Chelsea is in a battle with Arsenal and Tottenham for the third and fourth position in the table, and the Champions League qualification berths that go with them. Chelsea is one point up on Spurs, with a meeting at Tottenham on May 8. Chelsea is also the only English team remaining in European competition, after playing Basle in Switzerland in the Europa League on Thursday.

* Swansea is safely in mid-table and faces no fear of being relegated or challenging for the European places.

* Chelsea is undefeated at home in the league in its past six (5-1-0), outscoring the opposition 13-5.

* Swansea has scored three goals in its last six road games.

Arsenal (3rd, 63) v Manchester United (Champions, 84) +120 +250 +220
Previous meeting: Manchester United 2, Arsenal 1

* Manchester United clinched the championship on Monday.

* Arsenal is one point above Chelsea and two points above Tottenham, and have one fewer game remaining.

* Manchester United starting central defenders Rio Ferdinand and captain Nemanja Vidic have been declared fit for the match.

* The over is 5-2 in Arsenal's last seven home games.

Monday
Aston Villa (17th, 34) v Sunderland (14th, 37) +125 +230 +230
Previous meeting: Sunderland 0, Aston Villa 1, November 3

* Aston Villa is three points ahead of Wigan for the last relegation spot. Both teams will meet at Wigan on the final day of the season.

* Sunderland is six points above Wigan for the final relegation spot.

* Aston Villa striker Christian Benteke has scored 10 goals in his past 14 league games.

* Sunderland is 2-0-1 under new manager Paolo Di Canio, including two clean sheets in a row. The last time Sunderland kept a clean sheet was January 29.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Tigers Thursday.

Friday it’s the Celtics. The deficit is 452 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Boston Seeks First Win of Series Friday vs. New York

Eastern Conference Playoffs First Round
Game 3 - New York leads series 2-0
Tip-off: Friday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Boston -3, Total: 183.5

The Knicks head into what will be a very emotional Boston atmosphere on Friday night when they attempt to take a 3-0 series lead on the slumping Celtics.

New York got off to a slow start against Boston on Tuesday night, trailing 48-42 after the first half. The Knicks then locked down on defense, similar to what they did in Game 1, holding Boston to just 23 second-half points on 19% FG. The Knicks outscored Boston 32-11 in the third quarter and went on to win 87-71. The Celtics have struggled to get open looks against a swarming New York defense, and SF Carmelo Anthony was on his game with 34 points. The Knicks have been a solid road team this season at 23-18 SU and 22-18-1 ATS (55%), which includes an 8-2 ATS mark in the past 10 away games. Boston has been much more potent at home this season, going 27-13 SU (22-17-1 ATS) at TD Garden, and despite its 2-6 ATS home mark in this series in the past three seasons, the Celtics are 6-2 SU in these past eight home contests versus New York.

New York fans have now been nervous in the third quarter of both of the games in this series, only to see their team step up to the task of coming back. The Knicks have completely shut down the Celtics in the second halves of back-to-back games and offensively, SF Carmelo Anthony has been unstoppable with 35.0 PPG on 45.3% FG (6-of-10 threes) during the series. He's also 16-of-17 (94.1%) from the free-throw line. PG Raymond Felton also played a magnificent game for New York in Game 2, playing 37 minutes and finishing with 16 points (8-of-15 FG) and seven rebounds, zero turnovers and a +22 rating. Off the bench, after being crowned the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year, SG J.R Smith did what he did all season, providing 19 points (7-of-15 FG) in 36 minutes of play. PF Kenyon Martin also continued to haunt Boston defensively, with 11 rebounds and four blocked shots in just 23 minutes of play. New York has been all over Boston defensively in this postseason series, and has allowed the C's to score a mere 81.8 PPG during a five-game series win streak again them.

The Celtics are really struggling to space the floor against the Knicks early in this series. With no true point guard on the floor, the Celtics have looked incompetent offensively in the second half of both games so far. One player rising to the occasion though, as expected, has been SF Paul Pierce. He went 8-for-19 from the field with 18 points, six rebounds and six assists in 38 minutes of play in Game 2, but posted a hideous minus-28 rating. PF Kevin Garnett was playing extremely well in the game, but got in serious foul trouble. In 24 minutes of play, Garnett was 4-for-9 from the field with 12 points and 11 rebounds. SG Jordan Crawford provided a major spark off the bench for the Celtics, going 4-for-11 to score 10 points in 25 minutes. PF Jeff Green is going to have to play a lot better in Game 3 if the Celtics are going to make this a series. Green had just 10 points on 3-11 FG and a minus-22 rating on Tuesday after a brilliant 26-point performance in Game 1. Boston needs everybody to step up their games, and that will start with Garnett staying out of foul trouble and Green staying aggressive.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nuggets Look for Bounce-Back Effort Friday at Golden State

Western Conference Playoffs First Round
Game 3 - Series tied 1-1
Tip-off: Friday, 10:35 p.m. ET
Line: Golden State -1, Total: 212

Following a stunning blowout road win on Tuesday, the triumphant Warriors return home for Friday's Game 3 in their first-round playoff series versus the Nuggets.

Golden State lost Game 1 on a last-second shot by Andre Miller, but the club made sure there would be no late-game heroics in Tuesday's Game 2, shooting an incredible 65% from the floor (14-of-25 threes) in a 131-117 drubbing of Denver. Now the series shifts to Oakland where the Warriors were 28-13 SU (23-18 ATS) this season. The Nuggets were not a strong road team this season, surrendering 104.4 PPG to their hosts and posting a subpar record of 19-22 SU and 21-20 ATS. Despite these marks, Denver is a solid 14-9 ATS (61%) as an underdog, and 15-10 ATS (60%) coming off an SU loss this season. Golden State is a solid 18-13 ATS (58%) as a home favorite, but is a weak 20-26-1 ATS (44%) following an SU win.

The Nuggets had no problems scoring on Tuesday night, pumping in 117 points on 50% FG and a respectable 9-of-26 threes (35%). But the defense was atrocious in allowing 70 second-half points and 44 total points in the paint. Denver was also dominated on the glass, 36-26, despite the Warriors being without their best rebounder, injured All-Star PF David Lee. No Nuggets starter had a positive rating, and four of the starting five were minus-10 or worse. PG Ty Lawson led the team with 19 points, 12 assists and just one turnover, but posted a game-worst, minus-24 rating. Backup PG Andre Miller shined for the second straight game with 18 points and five assists, and now has 23.0 PPG and 5.0 APG in this series. Four other Denver players also netted at least 14 points on Tuesday. Starting swingmen Andre Iguodala (18 pts, 7 ast, 4 reb) and Wilson Chandler (14 pts, 6 reb) were a combined 9-of-12 from the foul line, but had a minus-10 rating and minus-20 rating, respectively. SF Corey Brewer came off the bench to score 19 points on 6-of-16 FG, while PF Anthony Randolph poured in 14 points on 5-of-6 FG in just 10 minutes of action. SF Kenneth Faried missed Game 1 with an ankle injury, and he was clearly not 100 percent in Game 2, scoring just four points with two rebounds in 21 minutes of action. During the regular season, Faried averaged 11.5 PPG and 9.2 RPG in 28.1 MPG.

Golden State's offense was truly remarkable on Tuesday, scoring exactly 35 points in each of the final three quarters. Their frenetic pace led to a hefty 17 turnovers, but they were able to combat those mistakes by forcing 15 Nuggets turnovers. With PF David Lee out, the Warriors started a three-man backcourt of PGs Stephen Curry and Jarrett Jack and SG Klay Thompson, and the trio made head coach Mark Jackson look like a genius, pouring in a combined 77 points on 31-of-49 shooting (63.3% FG) and 10-of-17 threes. Curry led the way with 30 points, 13 assists, five rebounds and three steals despite turning his ankle in the third quarter. He is probable to play in Game 3 and try to build on his 24.5 PPG and 11.0 APG this series. Jack, who posted a near triple-double of 10 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds in Game 1, concentrated more on his offense in Game 2 with 26 points (10-of-15 FG), seven assists and just three boards. Thompson continued his hot series, scoring 21 points on 8-of-11 shooting and 5-of-6 threes. That gives him 21.5 PPG on 60% FG (7-of-11 threes) so far in the series. The biggest surprise performance though came from SF Harrison Barnes who tallied 24 points on 9-of-14 FG with six rebounds and a +17 rating in 34 minutes of action. This was quite an improvement from his eight points and two boards over 28 minutes in Game 1. Golden State will need more out of its big men though, as C Andrew Bogut and PF Carl Landry combined for just 15 points and 12 rebounds, a big drop-off from Game 1 when the duo recorded 23 points and 19 boards.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spurs Look to Go Up 3-0 on Lakers Friday in L.A.

Western Conference Playoffs First Round
Game 3 - San Antonio leads series 2-0
Tip-off: Friday, 10:30 p.m. ET
Line: San Antonio -3, Total: 189.5

After two lopsided losses, the Lakers try to reverse their fortunes on Friday night when they host the Spurs for Game 3 of their first-round playoff series.

Los Angeles entered the postseason sizzling, scoring 105.0 PPG on 46.1% FG during a five-game win streak to end the regular season. But its offense has been completely shut down in the postseason, averaging just 85.0 PPG on 43% FG and 29.7% threes, resulting in a 12-point loss in Game 1, and an 11-point defeat in Wednesday's Game 2. The Spurs, which closed out the regular season 0-7 ATS (2-5 SU) in their final seven games, struggled to shoot the ball in Game 1 (37.6% FG), but got their offense in gear on Wednesday with 102 points on 51.2% shooting and 7-of-14 threes. Despite the seemingly dire straits the Kobe Bryant-less Lakers find themselves in, this team did go 29-12 SU (19-21-1 ATS) at home this season with 102.6 PPG on 47% FG. San Antonio is 23-18 SU on the road, but just 20-21 ATS away from home this season. Although the Spurs lost 91-86 at Staples Center on April 14, they had gone 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU in their previous five trips there.

After opening the series with a mere 79 points on 41% FG (20% threes), the Lakers were much more efficient on Wednesday, tallying 91 points on 45% FG (36% threes). Six players -- including all five starters -- scored at least nine points, but nobody had more than 16. C Dwight Howard tallied 16 points, nine boards and four blocks in Game 2, but posted a woeful minus-14 rating. Although he's averaging 18.0 PPG, 12.0 RPG and 3.0 BPG so far this series, he's also committed nine turnovers and 10 fouls. PG Steve Blake was the other Lakers player with 16 points, as he attempted a team-high 15 shots, going 6-for-15 FG and 3-for-7 threes. He had just two assists, but did pull down six boards. Starting forwards PF Pau Gasol and SF Metta World Peace each had 13 points in 35 minutes of action. Gasol added nine boards and four assists, but made just 5-of-14 shots, which actually increased his shooting percentage to 31.6% (18-of-57 FG) in the four meetings with San Antonio this season. SG Steve Nash is quickly regaining his form after being out with a hamstring injury, scoring nine points (4-of-8 FG) with six assists. The bench played horribly in Game 1, but improved a bit in Game 2, especially PG Darius Morris, who had 10 points on 4-of-7 FG (2-of-2 threes), and PF Antawn Jamison who contributed six points and two blocks in 20 minutes of action.

San Antonio also sported a balanced offensive attack on Wednesday with seven players scoring at least seven points. The club committed just eight turnovers and was able to stay just about even with the Lakers in rebounding (40-37 disadvantage) and points in the paint (40-38 disadvantage). PG Tony Parker played well in Game 1 with 18 points, eight assists and three steals, and he was even better offensively on Wednesday with a game-high 28 points (9-of-20 FG, 9-of-10 FT), four rebounds, seven assists and zero turnovers in 37 minutes. The starting forward tandem of PF Tim Duncan and SF Kawhi Leonard also played strong in Game 2, netting 16 points apiece with Leonard making 8-of-12 shots and pulling down seven boards. Leonard had just eight points in Game 1. SG Manu Ginobili and PF Matt Bonner once again provided a huge spark off the bench. After an 18-point showing in the series opener, Ginobili finished with 13 points (3-of-4 threes) in Game 2. And for the second straight game, Bonner had 10 points and five rebounds in his reserve role. For the series, Bonner has recorded an amazing +47 rating.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Zimmerman is 4-0, 2.67 so far this season. Bailey is 0-0, 1.29 in his last couple starts.
-- Feldman is 0-3, 9.00 in three starts this season. Leblanc is 0-3, 6.75 in four starts this season.
-- Kendrick is 1-0, 1.89 in his last three starts.
-- Lynn is 3-0, 2.25 in his last three starts.
-- Burgos won his first MLB start, allowing one run in five IP.
-- Giants won all four Lincecum starts (2-0, 4.76), scoring 26 runs.

-- Maholm is 3-1, 1.03 in four starts this season. ASanchez is 2-1, 2.61 in his last three starts.

-- Rangers won both Grimm starts (1-0, 5,84), scoring 15 runs.
-- Peavy is 1-0, 1.29 in his last couple starts.
-- Royals won last three Santana starts (2-0, 1.96).
-- Wilson is 1-0, 3.00 in his last couple starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Gee is 1-3, 9.50 in four starts this season.
-- JSanchez is 0-2, 10.80 in four starts this season.
-- McCarthy is 0-2, 7.89 in four starts this season. Nicasio has a 5.31 RA in four starts (Rockies 2-2).
-- Beckett is 0-3, 5.40 in four starts this season.
-- Cashner allowed two runs in four IP in his first '13 start, also vs Giants.

-- JJohnson is 0-1, 7.32 in four starts this season. Nova is 1-1, 6.14 in three starts this season.
-- Dempster is 0-2, 4.50 in four starts this season. Bedard is 0-1, 8.64 in his three starts this season.
-- Diamond is 1-1, 5.23 in two starts this season.
-- Hernandez is 1-3, 5.84 in four starts this season.
-- Kazmir allowed six runs in 3.1 IP in his first '13 start.
-- Orioles lost all three of Chen's road starts (0-2, 4.00). Milone has a 5.89 RA in his last three starts.
-- Harang is 0-2, 11.42 in two starts this season.

Totals
-- Four of last five Washington games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last twelve Cub games stayed under the total.
-- Ten of last thirteen Met games went over the total.
-- Six of last nine Pittsburgh games stayed under total.
-- Nine of last eleven Arizona games stayed under the total.
-- Last four games at Dodger Stadium went over the total.
-- Three of four Lincecum starts went over the total.

-- Seven of last ten Detroit games went over the total.

-- 10 of last 13 Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Boston games.
-- Under is 10-4-1 in last fifteen Texas games.
-- Under is 3-1-2 in last six Tampa Bay games.
-- All four Santana starts stayed under the total.
-- 19 of last 22 Oakland games went over the total.
-- 13 of last 16 Angel games went over the total.

Hot teams
-- Pirates won 12 of their last 16 games. St Louis won four of last five.
-- Reds won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Rockies won eight of their last twelve games. Arizona won four of five.
-- Brewers won nine of their last ten games.

-- Braves are 4-0 in road series openers.

-- Red Sox won ten of their last thirteen games.
-- Bronx won 11 of its last 16 games.
-- Rays won six of their last nine games.
-- Texas won seven of its last nine games. Minnesota won five of last seven.
-- Indians won three of their last four games. Royals won four of last six.
-- Orioles won six of their last eight games.

Cold teams
-- Phillies lost eight of their last eleven games. Mets lost six of last nine.
-- Dodgers lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Nationals lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Miami lost eight of its first ten home games. Cubs lost 12 of their last 17 games overall.
-- Padres lost seven of their nine home games. San Francisco lost last three games on foreign soil.

-- Detroit lost five of its last six games.

-- Houston lost eight of its last eleven games.
-- Blue Jays lost seven of their last ten games.
-- White Sox lost four of their last six games.
-- Oakland lost six of its last seven games.
-- Mariners lost 11 of their last 16 games. Angels lost three of last four.

Umpires
-- Cin-Wsh-- Home team won 15 of last 19 Fletcher games.
-- Chi-Mia-- Last five Wolf games stayed under the total.
-- Col-Az-- Nine of last eleven Carapazza games stayed under.

-- Tor-NY-- Underdogs won six of last nine Fairchild games.
-- Hst-Bos-- Ten of last twelve Meals games went over the total.
-- Tex-Min-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight TBarrett games.
-- TB-Chi-- Six of last seven LBarrett games went over the total.
-- Blt-A's-- Four of last five Reynolds games went over the total.
-- LA-Sea-- Visiting team won seven of last nine Barry games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Sabres are 7-4 in their last eleven games.
-- Blackhawks won eight of their last ten games.

Cold teams
-- Islanders lost last two games, after winning 11 of previous 14.
-- Oilers lost nine of their last ten games. Minnesota lost eight of last 12.
-- Flames lost their last two games 4-3/4-1.
-- Colorado lost 17 of its last 22 games. Coyotes are 3-5 in their last eight.

Totals
-- Four of last five Islander games went over the total.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Edmonton games.
-- Last three Calgary-Chicago games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-0-2 in last nine Phoenix games.

Series records
-- Islanders lost three of last four games with Buffalo.
-- Minnesota won 13 of its last 15 games with Edmonton.
-- Blackhawks won five of last seven games with Calgary.
-- Coyotes won ten of last twelve games with Colorado.

Back-to-backs
-- Islanders are 1-5 if they played the night before.
-- Flames are 0-4 on the road if they played the night before.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

April 26th 2013

Friday NBA & MLB

Knicks +3 over Celtics
The Knicks are better in every stage of the game and the only way they lose is if they come out and play like the Clippers did last night. This team will only beat themselves against this older Boston team. This is always a tough building to play in, but I don't think the Knicks get enough credit for being one of the elite teams in the NBA. Take New York

Spurs -5 over Lakers
The Lakers have run out of gas. No Kobe means no shot. A lot of their role players are out or limited tonight and they just don't have the offense to play in this game. The Spurs have weapons from every single position and I think it would take a game in the low 80's for the Lakers to have a shot. I just don't see it happening. Take the Spurs.

Warriors -1.5 over Nuggets
The biggest loss of the entire playoffs was the other night when the Nuggets lost at home to the Warriors. Denver banks on their home games and not being up 2-0 is a big blow going into play Golden State. The Warriors live by the 3 point shot and they are not going to die by it any time soon. They were very impressive the other night and are getting confident. This is a team that can make a lot of noise in the playoffs. Take Golden State.

Angels/Mariners Over 7.5 runs
Wilson/Harang
The Mariners are starting to hit the ball with this new line up and CJ Wilson has not pitched well this year giving up about a hit every inning. Harang has been brutal in his action this year. This is a good day for the Angels to get their bats going. I think we are going to see both teams swinging the bat well tonight. Take the Over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

04/26/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 820-382 (.682)
ATS: 645-585 (.524)
ATS Vary Units: 1636-1493 (.523)
Over/Under: 632-599 (.513)
Over/Under Vary Units: 845-776 (.521)

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
Game #3
New York 97, BOSTON 94

Western Conference Quarterfinals
Game #3
San Antonio vs. L.A. LAKERS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Denver 109, GOLDEN STATE 108