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NBA playoffs: Saturday's East betting preview
Brooklyn Nets at Chicago Bulls (-2.5, 178)
Bulls lead series 2-1.
The Chicago Bulls are now in position to take a commanding 3-1 lead when they host the Brooklyn Nets in Saturday’s Game 4 of the Eastern Conference best-of-seven series. Chicago squeezed out a 79-76 victory in Thursday’s Game 3 in a contest in which both teams shot poorly. Nets guard Joe Johnson and Bulls center Joakim Noah are both dealing with foot ailments. Game 5 is in Brooklyn and the Nets would like to go home even.
Fourth-seeded Chicago shot just 39.7 percent on Thursday while holding the Nets to 34.6 percent. The Bulls know the contest wasn’t aesthetically pleasing but it was the results that mattered to them. “We did what we had to do to win the game,” said Bulls forward Carlos Boozer, who had 22 points and 16 rebounds. “In the playoffs, you have to win different ways. Nothing is perfect.” Fifth-seeded Brooklyn has averaged 79 points while losing the last two games and point guard Deron Williams is frustrated with the offense. “When we get the ball swung to the weak side and we get some movement, we’re fine,” Williams said. “But when we just let them keep us on one side, we’re struggling.”
TV: 2 p.m. ET, TNT, WWOR (Brooklyn), Comcast SportsNet Chicago
ABOUT THE NETS: Johnson received a cortisone shot in his sore left foot prior to Game 3 so he could play and scored 15 points on 6-of-14 shooting. Johnson indicated he wouldn’t have been able to play without the injection. “I felt pretty good the whole game other than probably about the last two to three minutes,” Johnson said. “It kind of tightened up. But other than that, I felt all right.” Johnson is averaging 16 points and shooting 42.2 percent in the series and it remains to be seen whether he will need another shot prior to Saturday’s game.
ABOUT THE BULLS: Boozer is averaging 20 points and 12 rebounds and shooting 57.4 percent in the series. He had a 25-point game in the opener and was sensational in the Game 3 victory. “Carlos is huge, man,” forward Luol Deng said. “He was hitting some big shots for us. He’s been playing great. Every time they made a run, he was just giving them an answer. Carlos is a great player, man.” Deng also had a fine outing with 21 points and 10 rebounds for his second straight double-double. Noah missed all seven of his field-goal attempts but contributed eight boards in 27 minutes despite the foot issues.
TRENDS:
* Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
* Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
* Over is 7-1 in Nets’ last eight games following a loss.
BUZZER BEATERS
1. Nets C Brook Lopez had 22 points, nine rebounds and seven blocked shots in Game 3. He is averaging 21.3 points in the series.
2. Bulls PG Kirk Hinrich is averaging 12.5 points in Chicago’s two victories and had just two points in the one loss.
3. Brooklyn is 15-for-56 from 3-point range in the series and the Bulls are just 8-for-35.
Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks (-2.5, 190.5)
Pacers lead series 2-0.
The Atlanta Hawks have not done a very good job defensively in the first two games of the series against the Indiana Pacers. The Hawks will try to improve on that end when the series shifts to Atlanta for Game 3 on Saturday. The Pacers were not exactly known for an uptempo style in the regular season but have put up 220 points in the first two games of the series behind a pair of strong efforts from Paul George.
George recorded a triple-double in the first game and added some offensive aggression en route to 27 points in Game 2. The small forward also provides a tough matchup on the other end for Josh Smith, Kyle Korver, DeShawn Stevenson or any other player Atlanta has sent at the defensively-sound George. Indiana has taken each of the first two games by at least 15 points and has been strong enough in the post to force the Hawks to settle for shots on the perimeter.
TV: 7 p.m. ET, Fox Sports Indiana, Fox Sports South (Atlanta), ESPN
ABOUT THE PACERS: George has gotten plenty of help from George Hill and Gerald Green on the outside, taking some of the focus away from Roy Hibbert and David West in the middle. West struggled with foul trouble in Game 2 and was held to seven points and one rebound in 20 minutes. Indiana still managed to make the 113-98 victory look easy as seldom-used forward Jeff Pendergraph came off the bench to provide a lift. The Pacers are using the athleticism on the wings of George and Green to explode into the paint and attack, which gives an offense that finished 23rd in the regular season in scoring average some extra burst.
ABOUT THE HAWKS: Atlanta battled through foul trouble in each of the first two games and is hoping a change in venue will even up a discrepancy that has seen the Pacers attempt 63 free throws to the Hawks’ 34. Atlanta was even called for three technical fouls in Game 2, including one that had Al Horford in disbelief. Horford put up a double-double in Game 2 but Smith was limited by an ankle injury and foul trouble to 20 minutes. The Hawks tried bigger lineups with Ivan Johnson or Johan Petro in the middle but could not keep the Pacers off the offensive glass. “They handled their home court and now Game 3 is crucial for us, and now we have to handle ours,” Horford said.
TRENDS:
* Hawks are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Over is 6-1 in Pacers’ last seven overall.
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
BUZZER BEATERS
1. The Pacers have won each of their first two playoff games by at least 15 points for the first time since joining the NBA in 1976.
2. Atlanta took both meetings on its home court during the regular season, 89-86 on Nov. 7 and 109-100 on Dec. 29.
3. Indiana G Lance Stephenson suffered a bruised right hip in Game 2 but returned to the floor and is probable for Game 3. -
NBA playoffs: Saturday's West betting preview
Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies (-3.5, 177)
Clippers lead series 2-1.
The Memphis Grizzlies attempt to tie their Western Conference series with Los Angeles when they host the Clippers on Saturday in Game 4 of the best-of-seven series. Memphis recovered from two losses in Los Angeles to post a 94-82 victory in Thursday’s Game 3 and played with a higher level of aggressiveness. Clippers point guard Chris Paul seeks to bounce back from a performance in which he had more turnovers (five) than assists (four).
Paul was upset with himself after the contest as the fourth-seeded Clippers opened the door for Memphis to get back into the series. “They made some good adjustments and now it will be our opportunity to make our adjustments,” Paul said. “Game 4 will be a big game for both of us. We know we need this game so we can go back home and have an opportunity to close it out.” The fifth-seeded Grizzlies were glad to avoid a 0-3 hole but know there is plenty of work to do. “We haven’t done anything yet,” guard Tony Allen said. “We’ve won one game. There is a Game 4. We’re not even too happy about it. We just have to focus on Game 4 and take care of business.”
TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, TNT, Prime Ticket (Los Angeles), Sport South (Memphis)
ABOUT THE CLIPPERS: Los Angeles averaged 102.5 points in its two victories and never got into the flow in Game 3 while shooting 38.8 percent. Paul had eight points on 4-of-11 shooting but wasn’t the lone player to have a subpar outing. Sixth man Jamal Crawford had 10 points on 3-of-10 shooting and backup guard Eric Bledsoe missed all four of his shots after going 10-for-13 over the first two games. The Clippers committed 18 turnovers with the usually reliable Paul being the biggest culprit. “It’s uncharacteristic of us,” Paul said. “I mean especially me. I had five turnovers and our turnovers led to 17 of their points.”
ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES: Power forward Zach Randolph had a monster game with 27 points and 11 rebounds in Game 3 after totaling just 26 points and 12 rebounds in the first two games. It was the type of performance Memphis has come to expect from a player who had 45 double-doubles in the regular season. “I definitely wanted to come out and be aggressive,” Randolph said afterward. “They’ve been double-teaming, triple-teaming me. So just go fast, hit a couple jump shots and open it up. Most definitely, I wanted to come out and be aggressive.” Allen also had a fine game with 13 points and nine rebounds, falling one board short of his second straight double-double.
TRENDS:
* Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Clippers’ last five road games.
* Under is 5-0 in Grizzlies’ last five home games.
* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Memphis.
BUZZER BEATERS
1. The Grizzlies have won the battle of the boards in each of the past two games after Los Angeles had a dominating 47-23 edge in the opener.
2. Clippers F Blake Griffin had just two rebounds in Game 3 and is grabbing just five per game in the series.
3. Memphis swingman Quincy Pondexter had 13 points in Game 3 after totaling just five in the first two contests.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets (1, 208.5)
Thunder lead series 2-0.
The Houston Rockets weren’t given much of a shot of upsetting Oklahoma City in the first place and the odds will become nearly impossible if they don’t defeat the visiting Thunder in Game 3 on Saturday. However, the Rockets' odds of winning Game 3 became a lot better Friday. Oklahoma City point guard Russell Westbrook will require surgery for a torn meniscus in his right knee. The team said that Westbrook suffered his injury in the second quarter of Game 2 against the Rockets on Wednesday and be out indefinitely. Houston lost the first two games of the Western Conference best-of-seven series and the eighth-seeded Rockets are in must-win mode after falling three points short in Game 2. Top-seeded Oklahoma City let a 15-point, fourth-quarter lead get away before sealing the 105-102 win.
The Thunder struggled with Houston’s lineup and strategy revisions in Game 2. Rookie guard Patrick Beverley moved into the starting lineup and contributed 16 points and 12 rebounds while going toe-to-toe with Oklahoma star Russell Westbrook. “I thought the lineup gave them a little issue,” forward Chandler Parsons said. “When we space the floor like that, they can’t guard us. I think we showed that and proved that we can score on them.” Houston also had 18 offensive rebounds and had a 57-40 overall edge on the boards and Thunder coach Scott Brooks wasn’t thrilled with the overall performance. “We won the game so we’re happy with that,” Brooks said. “We’re not saying we’re satisfied but we’re happy. We did a lot of good things, but we also have to understand that they’re really good.”
TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, Fox Sports Oklahoma, Comcast SportsNet Houston
ABOUT THE THUNDER: Oklahoma City stars Kevin Durant (10-for-26) and Westbrook (10-for-25) had trouble shooting in Game 2 as the Rockets played a zone most of the contest. The defensive alignment also forced the Thunder into several uncharacteristic turnovers. “It’s not easy. We haven’t seen it much during the year,” guard Thabo Sefolosha said. “When a team throws a zone at us like this, we try to keep the ball moving, keep bodies moving and really try to attack the paint. I think this is where the weakness is. We’ve got to do a better job at driving the ball and then maybe kicking it out.” Taking advantage in the interior didn’t happen in Game 2 as Houston had a 50-30 edge in points in the paint.
ABOUT THE ROCKETS: Whether or not Houston has point guard Jeremy Lin available will be decided prior to Game 3. Lin missed the second half of Game 2 and underwent an MRI exam on Thursday that revealed he has a bruised muscle in his chest. Lin hopes he can play but his optimism was tempered by the fact he was unable to shoot the basketball on Thursday. “I really don’t know because this is something that should heal quickly but right now I’m not there yet so I don’t know when I will be (able to play).” Lin was 4-of-14 shooting for 11 total points in the first two games.
BUZZER BEATERS
1. Houston G James Harden had 36 points in Game 2 and is averaging 28 points and 8.5 rebounds in the series.
2. Thunder F Serge Ibaka has nine blocks in the two games while averaging 14.5 points and nine rebounds.
3. The Rockets are 18-of-71 from 3-point range through two games.Comment
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UFC 159 betting: MMA stats are on Jones' side vs. Sonnen
By MMAODDSBREAKER
Reed Kuhn writes for MMAOddsbreaker and fightnomics.
Regardless of how excited - or not - Jon Jones may be about this, the UFC light heavyweight title is going to be on the line at UFC 159. Jones will defend his title against former Middleweight title contender Chael Sonnen after a refreshingly awesome 17th season of the Ultimate Fighter.
Jones (17-1) is already 11-1 in the UFC and is making his fifth title defense since his TKO finish of Shogun Rua in 2011. During his reign thus far, the 25-year old champ has finished five opponents in title bouts, with only one decision (a dominant one) against Rashad Evans. It’s easy to see on paper why Jones has been so successful.
Boasting the longest reach in the UFC, “Bones” Jones has been very effective in using his unique physical attributes. He has a very accurate jab, excellent striking defense and outworks his opponents by averaging 30 percent more strikes while standing and trading. These are all signs of a strong use of reach.
On the ground, however, is where Jones has shown his best skills. With legitimate wrestling credentials, Jones has translated his reach into one of the most dangerous submission arsenals in the game. His limbs can wrap up submissions other fighters can’t find from similar positions. Having scored five UFC submission victories, his two most recent even came against Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts.
Sonnen (27-12-1) is strapping on an extra 20 pounds for his return to the light heavyweight division, and what is likely his last chance for UFC gold. At the age of 36, it’s also safe to assume that retirement from fighting may be lurking if this fight doesn’t go his way.
Bettors should never underestimate the man who won four rounds against Anderson Silva, and got past challenges of Brian Stann and Michael Bisping to get earn a second title shot at the pound-for-pound best. There’s no shame in losing to Anderson Silva, even twice.
Those middleweight fights exemplified the skills that Sonnen brings to the cage, namely wrestling and tenacity. Though his standup striking skill metrics are below average, he throws a high volume attack that sets up an effective clinch game and ultimately takedowns.
Once the ground, Sonnen focuses on striking and outstrikes opponents 7:1. By this dominating method of control, Sonnen tends to win a lot of rounds and decisions. But if you live by the sword, be prepared to die by it. Sonnen’s clearest weakness is his submission defense and he’s been submitted five times in the WEC and UFC.
The shining example of this paradox was his first fight with Anderson Silva, where he won four straight rounds, only to fall into a triangle choke at the end of the fight. MMA bettors are faced with another five-round fight with an even more dangerous grappler in Jones.
Based on statistical advantages alone (mainly age and reach), Jones has at least a 70 percent chance of victory. But layer in Sonnen’s typical plan of attack to push forward and get top position on the ground to grind out rounds, and all of a sudden Jones’ ranginess and submissions skills look like the perfect counter.
Though it may take a round or two to develop, look for Jones to frustrate Sonnen by landing shots from the outside and stifling Sonnen’s attempts to clinch and drag this to the floor. In transitions, Jones can lock in a submission from anywhere. Even if Sonnen becomes the first fighter to ever score a takedown on the champ, Jones can still use sweeps and attack from his back.
The eventual finish is more likely to come from a tap rather than strikes, and that tap may also signify the last move Chael Sonnen ever makes inside the Octagon. Don’t worry though, we’ll see - and hear - plenty of best talker in MMA in broadcasting down the road.Comment
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NASCAR beting: Toyota Owners 400 preview
After back-to-back races at 1.5-mile tracks, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series shifts to the short ¾-mile track at Richmond International Raceway Saturday.
High drama followed Matt Kenseth’s win at Kansas last week after his No. 20 car was suspended for six races following a failed engine inspection. NASCAR came down hard on Joe Gibbs Racing with many other sanctions, including suspending crew chief Jason Ratcliff for six races and fining him $200,000.
Here’s a look at this week’s favorite, a live dog and a long shot for bettors to consider:
Favorite: Kyle Busch (+500)
Busch had a rough race last week in Kansas, but has enjoyed plenty of success at Richmond. He leads all drivers with a 5.4 average finish and has won the spring race three consecutive times from 2009-12. Busch has four wins, 12 top-fives, 13 top-10s and one pole in his last 16 starts at RIR.
Live dog: Kevin Harvick (+1,400)
Harvick ranks second out of 48 drivers with an average place of 7.5 in the last eight seasons at Richmond. The No. 29 Chevrolet was running second at one point of last week’s race in Kansas before slipping to 12th. Harvick has two wins, six top-fives and 15 top-10s in his career at Richmond.
Long shot: Jeff Burton (+5,000)
Burton has one win, nine top-fives, 16 top-10s and one pole in 37 career starts at Richmond. He has an average place of 15.4 at the track over the past eight seasons and has good value at +5,000.
Key stat: The last three NASCAR Sprint Cup races have been won from the pole position. Twenty-two of the 113 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Richmond International Raceway have been won from the pole.
Notable quotable:
"To crush Joe Gibbs like that and say he can't win an owner's championship with the 20 this year, I just can't wrap my arms around that. It just blows me away. The same for (crew chief) Jason Ratcliff. I don't feel bad for myself at all, but for Jason and Joe, I couldn't feel any worse. There are no more reputable, hard-working, honest guys than them two. I feel really bad for them." – Kenseth on the sanctions handed down by NASCAR on Joe Gibbs Racing.
Odds to win the Toyota Owners 400 courtesy of bet365:
Kyle Busch +500
Brian Vickers +700
Matt Kenseth +750
Jimmie Johnson +750
Brad Keselowski +900
Clint Bowyer +900
Kasey Kahne +1,000
Carl Edwards +1,000
Jeff Gordon +1,100
Dale Earnhardt Jr. +1,400
Kevin Harvick +1,400
Tony Stewart +1,600
Ryan Newman +1,800
Greg Biffle +2,000
Martin Truex Jr. +2,200
Mark Martin +2,500
Joey Logano +3,300
Ricky Stenhouse +4,000
Kurt Busch +4,000
Jeff Burton +5,000
Paul Menard +5,000
Marcos Ambrose +6,600
Jamie McMurray +6,600
Juan Pablo Montoya +6,600
Aric Almirola +8,000
A.J. Allmendiger +10,000
Brian Keselowski +25,000
Danica Patrick +25,000
Casey Mears +25,000
Bobby Labonte +30,000
David Ragan +50,000
David Reutimann +50,000
David Stremme +75,000
Joe Nemechek +75,000
David Gilliland +75,000
Travis Kvapil +75,000
Dave Blaney +75,000
Landon Cassill +100,000
J.J. Yeley +100,000
Michael McDowell +100,000
Timmy Hill +100,000Comment
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MLB weather watch: Showers in St. Louis
There's rain in the forecast for three different parks on Saturday in the majors.
Here's our weather report:
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-125, 7.5)
Site: Busch Stadium
Forecasts are calling for a 45 percent chance of showers.
Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals (-141, 8.5)
Site: Kauffman Stadium
A 35 percent chance of rain is in the forecast for Kansas City.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners (-149, 7)
Site: Safeco Field
Winds will blow out to left field at 13 mph and there's a 30 percent chance of rain. The Mariners were 6-1 at home in 2012 when the wind blew out to left field.Comment
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Three 'over' pitchers to watch on Saturday
Here's a look at three struggling starters taking the mound Saturday who have a combined 11-1 over record this season in 12 starts.
Rick Porcello, Detroit Tigers (0-2, 11.08 ERA, 4-0 O/U)
In his last start, Porcello got rocked by the Angels, giving up nine earned runs in the first inning. His three other starts this year haven't been much better. Porcello hasn't pitched into the sixth inning yet this season, and has only struck out three batters. All of Porcello's totals have been high, not seeing one lower than eight yet. Kris Medlen is scheduled to be his opposite number for the Braves on Saturday. He has a 1-2 record and 2.16 ERA this season.
Dan Haren, Washington Nationals (1-3, 7.36 ERA, 3-1 O/U)
Haren is another pitcher that has been taxing for his team's bullpen. He has pitched into the sixth inning only once and has given up at least six hits in all of his starts. His most recent total was at 7.5, after seeing eight in his first three outings. Haren will go against Cincinnati's Mike Leake on Saturday. Leake has a 1-0 record in four starts and a 3.81 ERA.
Joe Blanton, Los Angeles Angels (0-3, 7.84 ERA, 4-0 O/U)
The Angels have the second worst team ERA in baseball, and Blanton is one of the main reasons why. He has given up at least four earned runs and seven hits in each of his four starts. The righty has made it to the seventh inning only once and has struck out an average of two batters per game. The total has been either eight or 8.5 in all of Blanton's starts. He will take the hill against Seattle's Felix Hernandez on Saturday, who has a 2-2 record with a 2.08 ERA.Comment
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Bettors beware these top MLB teams late in games
By JASON LOGAN
Losing a bet late in a game stings like a cut fastball high and inside. These four clubs are considered among baseball’s best but have been burning backers with their late-game letdowns. We break down why these clubs can’t finish and what bettors should look out for going forward:
St. Louis Cardinals (13-8, +5.14 units)
The Cardinals have jumped to the top of the National League Central thanks to a solid pitching staff (which ranks third in ERA) and some consistent offense, averaging 4.86 runs per game. However, after the seventh inning, things go south for St. Louis.
The Cards are hitting just .200 and average only one run in the final three innings. That lack of late-game pop isn’t enough to make up for a shaky bullpen, which lugs a 5.20 ERA (second worst in the bigs) and has blown five saves already this season.
St. Louis opens a three game set with Pittsburgh Friday. The Pirates have the second-best batting average from the seventh inning on in the National League and have won their last two games in comeback fashion.
Detroit Tigers (10-10, -3.71 units)
The Tigers’ current swoon hasn’t been helped out by the fact the team runs out of gas in the final three innings. Detroit has just one win in its last six games, heading into Friday, including an extra-innings loss to Kansas City Thursday. The Tigers have had troubles cashing in runners in scoring position recently, especially deep into games.
Detroit is hitting a measly .206 and averages just 0.65 runs from the seventh inning on – last in the majors. Big bats Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera are both hitting .250 in the late innings and have combined for just one home run in that span. The Tigers pitching staff has also struggled past the sixth, posting a collective 5.27 ERA – another stat that ranks worst in the bigs. The bullpen has a 1-5 record and has blown four saves.
Detroit is involved in a possible World Series preview this weekend, hosting the Atlanta Braves in interleague play. Atlanta is shutting the door in the final three innings, with an MLB-best ERA of 1.56 from the seventh on, and a bullpen which is limiting opposing bats to a .213 BA.
Washington Nationals (11-11, -2.77 units)
The Nationals have fallen far from their sky-high expectations in April, limping out to a .500 start heading into Friday. Washington’s once-powerful pitching staff is struggling and its offensive is only plating 3.82 runs an outing and only 0.73 of those runs are coming past the sixth inning.
The Nats are batting .218 and own an OBP of .267 in the late innings. On the other side of the ball, Washington’s staff lugs a 4.22 ERA from the seventh on – nearly a run more than last year’s 3.32 ERA in the same situation. The bullpen, which ranked third in the NL in 2012, is currently 11th and has already blown four saves. Washington’s relievers blew just 17 saves overall last year.
The Nationals opened a four-game set versus Cincinnati with an 8-1 win Thursday, scoring six of those runs before the seventh. The Reds boast the best ERA from the seventh on (2.84) in the majors and score 1.91 runs per game in that span – another MLB-best.
Boston Red Sox (14-7, +6.85 units)
The Red Sox have budged their way to the top of the American League East, knocking in nearly five runs per game and getting stellar work from their starters. Boston is hitting a respectable .257 and its starters own a combined 3.10 ERA – second lowest in the AL. Then comes the seventh inning stretch…
Boston’s bats cool off quickly after the sixth inning, hitting .186, and manage to cash in just 1.14 runs per game in that span. The pitching staff has a 4.32 ERA from the seventh on and the bullpen has been flighty with a 3-3 record and four blown saves.
The BoSox catch a bit of a break this weekend, hosting the Houston Astros. Boston took the first game of the series 7-2, doing all of the damage in the first five innings. The Astros also rank among the worst late-inning teams in baseball. But to be fair, Houston generally sucks no matter what inning it is.Comment
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NHL betting: Saturday's games with playoff implications
Saturday marks the unofficial end of the NHL regular season, so here's a breakdown of the games that have playoff implications and those matchups that don’t mean a darn thing.
New Jersey Devils at New York Rangers (-175, 5)
The Rangers clinched a playoff berth with a 4-3 win over the Hurricanes on Thursday, and can finish anywhere from the No. 6 to No. 8 seed.
Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs (+114, 5.5)
The Habs need a win Saturday to have a chance at clinching the Northeast Division title. They will also need the Bruins to lose both of their games this weekend. The Maple Leafs appear to be locked into the No. 5 spot in the East, but a win would make it impossible for the Ottawa Senators to catch them and bump them to the six seed.
Philadelphia Flyers at Ottawa Senators (-160, 5.5)
The Flyers have nothing to play for, but the Senators can finish anywhere from No. 5 to No. 8 in the East depending on the outcome of their final two games. Ottawa and Boston square off in the season finale on Sunday.
Boston Bruins at Washington Capitals (+114, 5.5)
The Bruins can clinch the Northeast with a win or Montreal loss. Washington has won the Southeast Division and will enter the 2013 playoffs as the No. 3 seed in the East.
Nashville Predators at Columbus Blue Jackets (-210, 5)
The Blue Jackets need a win in their season finale in order to have a shot at the eighth and final playoff spot in the West.
Detroit Red Wings at Dallas Stars (+114, 5)
The Red Wings sit seventh in the West heading into action Friday night and will be looking for points in their finale in order to qualify for their 22nd consecutive playoff appearance.
Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche (+155, 5)
The Wild will clinch a playoff berth if they beat the Edmonton Oilers Friday in any fashion. If they should fall, Saturday’s date with the Avs will be crucial.
Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues (-152, 5)
The Blackhawks have already clinched the Presidents’ Trophy, but the Blues will be looking for points in order to lock down the No. 4 seed and clinch home advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles Kings (-152, 5)
The Sharks and Kings are deadlocked at 57 points and both have a chance to leapfrog the Blues for home-ice advantage in the opening round.
Saturday’s meaningless games:
Carolina Hurricanes at Pittsburgh Penguins (-191, 5.5)
Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning (-186, 5.5)
Vancouver Canucks at Edmonton Oilers (+114, 5)
Phoenix Coyotes at Anaheim Ducks (-157, 5)Comment
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Canadiens at Maple Leafs: What bettors need to know
Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs (+115, 5.5)
Sitting fourth and fifth in the Eastern Conference entering their final game of the regular season, the Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs are likely to meet in the opening round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Toronto hosts the rival Canadiens on Saturday in a preview of that potential playoff matchup. The Maple Leafs hold a 3-1-0 series advantage on Northeast Division rival Montreal, opening the season with a 2-1 road victory and following that with a 6-0 rout on Feb. 9 - also at Montreal. The Canadiens’ only win over the Maple Leafs came at Toronto on Feb. 27, when Max Pacioretty scored twice in a 5-2 triumph, but Toronto responded with a 5-1 home win on April 13.
Montreal is tied with the Boston Bruins for the division lead at 61 points, but Boston has a game in hand. The Maple Leafs are three points clear of sixth place and a point on Saturday would ensure them fifth seed. James Reimer has been excellent for Toronto in April, posting a 2.09 goals-against average and a .938 save percentage in 10 starts. Conversely, Canadiens goaltender Carey Price has struggled, allowing three or more goals in five of his last seven starts. Montreal’s fifth-ranked power play remains potent, with goals in three of its last four games and an 11-for-50 mark this month. The Maple Leafs have allowed three power-play goals on 39 times short-handed in April.
TV: 7 p.m. ET, CBC, RDS, NHL Network (U.S.)
ABOUT THE CANADIENS (28-14-5): Pacioretty leads the team with 13 points this month, while defenseman P.K. Subban has 11 (eight with the man advantage). Rookie Alex Galchenyuk has been held off the scoresheet in just three contests in April - by far the most consistent month of his young career. Galchenyuk has six of his nine career goals in the last 11 games. Fellow rookie Brendan Gallagher scored his 14th goal as part of a third-period comeback in Thursday’s 4-2 win over the Winnipeg Jets. Lars Eller has three points in his last two games and a season-high 10 this month. Tomas Plekanec has 13 goals, but none since March 30. Michael Ryder has three assists in his last eight contests.
ABOUT THE MAPLE LEAFS (26-26-5): With nine goals and 17 points in April, Phil Kessel is carrying Toronto’s offense. Kessel also leads the Maple Leafs in scoring against the Canadiens, with seven points in the previous four games. Kessel skated on a line with Nazem Kadri and Joffrey Lupul on Thursday and the trio combined for two goals - both by Kessel - and five points in a 4-0 win over Florida. Despite the shortened campaign, Kessel’s 32 assists match the second-best total of his career. Defenseman Cody Franson has nine points this month and is one away from tying his career-high of 29 set two seasons ago. Clarke MacArthur’s goal against Florida was his first since March 9.
TRENDS:
* Maple Leafs are 5-0 in their last five Saturday games.
* Over is 5-1 in Maple Leafs’ last six home games.
* Over is 6-1-1 in Canadiens’ last eight overall.
OVERTIME
1. Reimer is 4-2-0 in seven career starts against Montreal, with two shutouts.
2. The Canadiens have the third-best road record in the conference at 14-7-2, behind the Pittsburgh Penguins and the New York Islanders.
3. The last time Toronto and Montreal met in the postseason was the 1979 conference semifinals, when their rosters included future Hall-of-Famers like Guy Lafleur, Ken Dryden, Larry Robinson, Darryl Sittler, Lanny McDonald and Borje Salming. The Canadiens took that series in a four-game sweep en route to their fourth consecutive Stanley Cup.Comment
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UFC 159 betting: MMA stats are on Jones' side vs. Sonnen
By MMAODDSBREAKER
Reed Kuhn writes for MMAOddsbreaker and fightnomics
UFC light heavyweight title fight: Chael Sonnen (+575) vs. Jon Jones (-875)
Regardless of how excited - or not - Jon Jones may be about this, the UFC light heavyweight title is going to be on the line at UFC 159. Jones will defend his title against former Middleweight title contender Chael Sonnen after a refreshingly awesome 17th season of the Ultimate Fighter.
Jones (17-1) is already 11-1 in the UFC and is making his fifth title defense since his TKO finish of Shogun Rua in 2011. During his reign thus far, the 25-year old champ has finished five opponents in title bouts, with only one decision (a dominant one) against Rashad Evans. It’s easy to see on paper why Jones has been so successful.
Boasting the longest reach in the UFC, “Bones” Jones has been very effective in using his unique physical attributes. He has a very accurate jab, excellent striking defense and outworks his opponents by averaging 30 percent more strikes while standing and trading. These are all signs of a strong use of reach.
On the ground, however, is where Jones has shown his best skills. With legitimate wrestling credentials, Jones has translated his reach into one of the most dangerous submission arsenals in the game. His limbs can wrap up submissions other fighters can’t find from similar positions. Having scored five UFC submission victories, his two most recent even came against Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts.
Sonnen (27-12-1) is strapping on an extra 20 pounds for his return to the light heavyweight division, and what is likely his last chance for UFC gold. At the age of 36, it’s also safe to assume that retirement from fighting may be lurking if this fight doesn’t go his way.
Bettors should never underestimate the man who won four rounds against Anderson Silva, and got past challenges of Brian Stann and Michael Bisping to get earn a second title shot at the pound-for-pound best. There’s no shame in losing to Anderson Silva, even twice.
Those middleweight fights exemplified the skills that Sonnen brings to the cage, namely wrestling and tenacity. Though his standup striking skill metrics are below average, he throws a high volume attack that sets up an effective clinch game and ultimately takedowns.
Once the ground, Sonnen focuses on striking and outstrikes opponents 7:1. By this dominating method of control, Sonnen tends to win a lot of rounds and decisions. But if you live by the sword, be prepared to die by it. Sonnen’s clearest weakness is his submission defense and he’s been submitted five times in the WEC and UFC.
The shining example of this paradox was his first fight with Anderson Silva, where he won four straight rounds, only to fall into a triangle choke at the end of the fight. MMA bettors are faced with another five-round fight with an even more dangerous grappler in Jones.
Based on statistical advantages alone (mainly age and reach), Jones has at least a 70 percent chance of victory. But layer in Sonnen’s typical plan of attack to push forward and get top position on the ground to grind out rounds, and all of a sudden Jones’ ranginess and submissions skills look like the perfect counter.
Though it may take a round or two to develop, look for Jones to frustrate Sonnen by landing shots from the outside and stifling Sonnen’s attempts to clinch and drag this to the floor. In transitions, Jones can lock in a submission from anywhere. Even if Sonnen becomes the first fighter to ever score a takedown on the champ, Jones can still use sweeps and attack from his back.
The eventual finish is more likely to come from a tap rather than strikes, and that tap may also signify the last move Chael Sonnen ever makes inside the Octagon. Don’t worry though, we’ll see - and hear - plenty of best talker in MMA in broadcasting down the road.Comment
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Goodfellas triple dime play Reds/Washington Over 8Comment
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DAVE ESSLER
MLB Cliff Notes
Phillies at Mets: Marcum making his season debut, so we don't know what to expect. Utley and Howard hit him well in limited at bats, and clearly he's going to be on a pitch count, so assuming that the Phillies get "some" it may be the Mets bullpen that wins or loses the game. And they have been pitiful lately. Pettibone looked decent against the Pirates, but it was the Pirates and he did give up to long balls. Also gonna be on a pitch count. Phillies pen has been "better" lately, but that includes four games against Pittsburgh. This game could well go over, and there's no chance of me laying -145 on a pitcher who hasn't thrown a big league game this year, I DNC who it is.
Reds at Washington: First off you have two of the best hitting pitchers in baseball so my immediate lean would be to the over. Leake's only road start was at Pittsburgh, and he got lit up. Even Werth hits him, so assuming Ramos catches, I lean Nats. But, Haren hasn't had a great game all year, so in fact the best bet for me, here, is the over.
Pirates at St. Louis: A little surprised to see Westbrook only -130. That's giving Burnett, on the road, a bit too much credit, IMO. Four straight 100+ pitch games, which he did once last year. Holliday and Beltran have hit him at least reasonably, and we need to see bullpen use for the Cardinals. Matt Adams has had some oblique issues, and if they get used tonight, perhaps that -130 is begging people to take St. Louis, meaning I'll take the Pirates because their pen has been impressive and the Cardinals at home have an ERA of over 11.00.
Cubs at Miami: You know I love my home underdogs, but Sanabia's WHIP of 1.75 or so may be a deal breaker. Then again, this is the Cubs who are -135 on the road. There may be some chinks is Wood. He was hit by the Reds (who hasn't been unless I bet on the Reds) and he's a fly ball pitcher, which is why he can get shelled at any time. I really wonder if the total is reflective of the pitchers, the offenses, or the park, and probably all of the above. However, given the fact that Miami's pen just sucks, I think this may find a way over. I simply cannot at this point take the Cubs favored on the road. Yet.
Colorado at Arizona: There's no chance I lay -170 in a baseball game as a premium play, so taking Miley is not happening, and with the fact that Colorado CAN score (too much made of Helton being out) and Kubel and Hill are on the DL, I'd be hard pressed to lay the RL with Arizona, but could perhaps make a case for Colorado +1.5. That's a huge total based on Francis and the park, however, so given it's already 95 in Arizona and no more roof open, I could see taking the under, especially if somehow it gets forced to 10.
Giants at Padres: I thought perhaps Zito would be more than -125 here, given that they just faced and beat Stults. With that in mind I do like to take the pitcher to make the adjustments in the next game, so perhaps San Diego is alive. They've all certainly seen Zito, and you'd be hard pressed to convince me that he's going to throw another shutout. And given the strength of the Padres pen lately, combined with the fact that the Giants pen is simply not even close to the same on the road away from "the big park", I can make a reasonable argument for the Padres and under here.
Milwaukee at LA Dodgers: I've watched Peralta pitch several times, and he's got the potential. The problem I have is that he's usually not going to pitch deep, which brings the once maligned Brewers pen into play, but they've been one of the better back ends this season. Fife crushed in his one start at Baltimore, and I suppose he could benefit from being in Dodger Stadium, but he won't be in late either, meaning I'd almost have to go Brewers and over in this one, because we know the Dodgers pen is miserable. If Beckett can't keep them out of the game tonight, that makes this one even easier.
Baltimore at Oakland: I have been a big Tillman fan most of his short career, but this year not so much. The advantage he does have in this game is that Oakland hasn't seen much of him at all. We do like Griffin, but he was lit up in Boston and really hasn't faced a solid hitting team other than the Red Sox. But, of course, Baltimore hasn't seen him at all. This game perhaps more than some others really does depend more on Friday's game that many others. The best play right now, given the big park and the lack of familiarity, might well be the under. I'd love to see that total at 8.5 first, though.Comment
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DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index
04/27/13 Predictions
Season
Straight Up: 821-383 (.682)
ATS: 647-586 (.525)
ATS Vary Units: 1641-1500 (.522)
Over/Under: 634-600 (.514)
Over/Under Vary Units: 857-779 (.524)
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
Game #4
CHICAGO 94, Brooklyn 90
Game #3
Indiana 97, ATLANTA 95
Western Conference Quarterfinals
Game #4
MEMPHIS 94, L.A. Clippers 91
Game #3
Oklahoma City 109, HOUSTON 105Comment
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DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index
04/27/13 Predictions
Season: 274-172 (.614)
N.Y. RANGERS 3, New Jersey 2
Montreal vs. TORONTO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
OTTAWA 3, Philadelphia 2
PITTSBURGH 4, Carolina 2
WASHINGTON 3, Boston 2
TAMPA BAY 4, Florida 3
COLUMBUS 3, Nashville 2
Minnesota vs. COLORADO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
ST. LOUIS 3, Chicago 2
DALLAS 3, Detroit 2
Vancouver 3, EDMONTON 2
ANAHEIM 3, Phoenix 2
LOS ANGELES 3, San Jose 2Comment
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