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NBA
Brooklyn at Chicago (-3) 2:00 PM ET TNT
2% Brooklyn +3
I offer you (3) NBA winners today including TNT and ESPN Double Header. Includes my Top of the Ticket 3* winner. I give you all the action.... take advantage.
Chicago showed again Thursday night why they have been NBA’s worst home favorite and why they have been such a poor positive momentum team. They blew a double digit lead failing to cover by ½ point in an eventual 79-76 win. That win, no cover also dropped their record to 15-29 ATS this season following a victory. Now Chicago enters Game #4 leading the series 2 games to 1 following back-to-back wins in which they allowed Brooklyn to score just 79 PPG on 35% shooting. Game #4 road dogs at 1-2 in the series /BBL are a high percentage play vs. sub .667 home teams. But Chicago’s edge in making adjustments with HC Thibodeau vs. HC Carlisimo is so dominant that one must reduce the situational play on the Nets.
LA Clippers at Memphis (-3-) 4:30 PM ET TNT
3% LA Clippers +3-
The Grizz use their strong home court where they are 33-9 this season to come away with a +12 rebound margin in Game #3 and stepped up their defense for a 94-82 victory. That might work again in Game #4 on a floor where Memphis is 10-5 ATS home to -6. But the fundamentals in the game are no worse than even for the Clippers and the zig-zag clearly works in their favor. Game #4 road teams to -4 in a win, win, lose set are a strong situational play with teams of this ilk. In addition, road teams off a double digit loss who fail to cover by 8 or more points have long been like money in the bank. Look for the Clippers to play with more emotion off a loss even off the boards and take control of this series.
Indiana at Atlanta (-2-) 7:00 PM ET ESPN
3% Atlanta -2-
This is a very strong contrary play against the fundamentals of this series. Indiana has cruised to a pair of comfortable wins by 17 and 15 points scoring an average of 110 PPG. They are simply the far better defensive team and far more physical. Atlanta truly misses the injured Zaza Pachulia in this series. But these teams have played 6 times this season with the home team winning each game by at least 3 points. The 2 Atlanta victories in this series runs it to 11 consecutive victories by Atlanta over Indiana at this site. Strong situational plays abound for Round #1 Game #3 home teams following a double digit loss in Game #2. Will follow the history and the situation with a winning selection full well understanding that the fundamentals are not in our favor.
Oklahoma City (P) at Houston 9:30 PM ET ESPN
4% OKC (P)
Who knew that when Houston HC McHale inserted Beverly into the starting lineup that it could have radically changed the entire outcome of the NBA Playoffs. Not only did Beverly score 16 points in Game #2 but he was also responsible for the knee injury to Russell Westbrook, the MVP of the Thunder. Westbrook will undergo knee surgery and miss his first ever NBA game. Look for a huge bounce by OKC in the first game in which they miss their fallen leader. And they won’t be overconfident knowing that Houston stormed back from 15 down in the 4th quarter to take a 4 point lead courtesy of a 21-2 run. Zig-zag theory points to Houston but this is a team that has lost 4 consecutive games, is just 14-24 ATS /loss this season and will have whatever zig-zag emotion taken away from them by injury to Westbrook. That, of course, has been fully compensated in the betting line making OKC the solid value play in this.
Saturday, April 27th
MLB
Colorado (Francis) at Arizona (Miley) (-150) 8:10 PM ET
3% Arizona (Miley) (-150)
In this matchup, we make a pure pitching play. Miley is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 23/7 KBB. Against Colorado, Miley is 4-0 with a 3.11 ERA in 6 starts, including 2-0 with a 2.49 ERA in 3 starts at this site. Colorado counters with Francis who is 1-2 with an 8.44 ERA and a 2.25 WHIP. Due to DH scheduling earlier in the week, Francis is pitching on 3 days rest. In the 8 career starts on 3 days rest, Frances has a 4.99 ERA. I reduce this rating a bit as Francis is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA recently at this site.
Toronto (Happ) at NY Yankees (Sabathia) (-150) 4:05 PM ET
3% NY Yankees (Sabathia) (-150)
After beginning the season 1-4, the Bombers are on a 12-5 run after winning the first 2 games of this series. That pushes their record to 14-2 vs. Toronto at this site. Sabathia is off to a 3-2 start with a 3.34 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 32/10 KBB. He is off a rare poor performance in which he allowed 5 runs (3 HRs) in a 5-1 loss to Tampa Bay. Look for the bounce back by Sabathia against a Toronto team against whom he has a record of 6-1 with a 2.43 ERA in his last 8 starts. The Blue Jays have underachieved at 9-15 going 1-4 most recently. Though Happ has pitched a bit better in recent starts, he has a 6.75 ERA in a pair of starts against NYY last year. I reduce the rating because the Yankees injury list continues to grow with Youkilis and now catcher, Cervelii, among the wounded.
Texas (Holland) (-145) at Minnesota (Pedro Hernandez) 4:10 PM ET
4% Texas (Holland) (-145)
Not about to stop riding the Rangers now. Texas is on a recent run of 7-1 outscoring the opposition 51-21. With a pair of victories against the Twins the last two nights, they run the record to 11-2 in this series, 5-0 at this site. Holland has pitched well this season reverting to his 2011 form following a shaky 012. This year, Holland has a 3.25 ERA with 0.98 WHIP and 22/8 KBB. Minnesota, who has dropped 3 straight, counters with Pedro Hernandez who is making only his 2nd start. In his first start, more than 2 weeks ago, Hernandez allowed 3 runs in 5 IP. Run line players take note: in the last 2 years 81/108 Texas wins have come by 2 or more runs. Consider part of your wager on the run line.
Cleveland (Kazmir) at Kansas City (Santana) (-155) 8:10 PM ET
4% Kansas City (Santana) (-155)
Pitching for the first time in 2 years and recovering from a strained oblique, Kazmir allowed 6 runs on 8 hits in 3 1/3 IP vs. Houston. The previous time Kazmir took the hill was at this site where he allowed 5 runs in 1 2/3 IP. I can’t see anything positive as he approaches this outing tonight. The Royals are off to a positive start at 11-8 with a 4-2 record at home. They look to extend a series record which has seen them win 7/8 and 4/5 at this site. Santana has been a pleasant surprise for the Royals. For the season, Santana is 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and 26/5 KBB. In his most recent 26 IP, Santana has allowed just 4 runs. Run line players take note: a whopping 90/105 recent Cleveland losses, including 9/11 this year, have been by 2 or more runs. Please consider part of your wager on the run line tonight.
Atlanta (Medlen) (-115) at Detroit (Porcello) 1:05 PM ET
3% Atlanta (Medlen) (-115)
Atlanta got locked down by An. San. last night in striking out 17 times and getting just 5 hits. Following their 13-2 start, the Braves have gone 2-5. Much has been the same for Medlen who following a streak where the Braves won consecutive Medlen starts they have failed in his last 2 trips to the mound. One of those was his most recent trip to the mound at Pittsburgh where he allowed 3 runs on 6 IP of a 4-2 loss to the Bucs. But in his 6 previous road starts, Medlin went 6-0 with a 0.64 ERA. Despite those downers for Atlanta which have reduce our rating on this selection, they are nothing compared to the troubles of Porcello. For the season, Porcello is 0-2 with an 11.08 ERA, a 2.00 WHIP and a .383 BAA. Porcello is off an outing in which he lasted just 2/3 IP allowing 9 runs and 9 hits. In 7 interleague starts, Porcello has a 7.90 ERA. Combined with a huge bullpen edge in which the Braves index of 184 is far superior to that of Detroit’s 104. We comfortably step in with this huge pitching mismatch.
NBA
Brooklyn at Chicago (-3) 2:00 PM ET TNT
2% Brooklyn +3
I offer you (3) NBA winners today including TNT and ESPN Double Header. Includes my Top of the Ticket 3* winner. I give you all the action.... take advantage.
Chicago showed again Thursday night why they have been NBA’s worst home favorite and why they have been such a poor positive momentum team. They blew a double digit lead failing to cover by ½ point in an eventual 79-76 win. That win, no cover also dropped their record to 15-29 ATS this season following a victory. Now Chicago enters Game #4 leading the series 2 games to 1 following back-to-back wins in which they allowed Brooklyn to score just 79 PPG on 35% shooting. Game #4 road dogs at 1-2 in the series /BBL are a high percentage play vs. sub .667 home teams. But Chicago’s edge in making adjustments with HC Thibodeau vs. HC Carlisimo is so dominant that one must reduce the situational play on the Nets.
LA Clippers at Memphis (-3-) 4:30 PM ET TNT
3% LA Clippers +3-
The Grizz use their strong home court where they are 33-9 this season to come away with a +12 rebound margin in Game #3 and stepped up their defense for a 94-82 victory. That might work again in Game #4 on a floor where Memphis is 10-5 ATS home to -6. But the fundamentals in the game are no worse than even for the Clippers and the zig-zag clearly works in their favor. Game #4 road teams to -4 in a win, win, lose set are a strong situational play with teams of this ilk. In addition, road teams off a double digit loss who fail to cover by 8 or more points have long been like money in the bank. Look for the Clippers to play with more emotion off a loss even off the boards and take control of this series.
Indiana at Atlanta (-2-) 7:00 PM ET ESPN
3% Atlanta -2-
This is a very strong contrary play against the fundamentals of this series. Indiana has cruised to a pair of comfortable wins by 17 and 15 points scoring an average of 110 PPG. They are simply the far better defensive team and far more physical. Atlanta truly misses the injured Zaza Pachulia in this series. But these teams have played 6 times this season with the home team winning each game by at least 3 points. The 2 Atlanta victories in this series runs it to 11 consecutive victories by Atlanta over Indiana at this site. Strong situational plays abound for Round #1 Game #3 home teams following a double digit loss in Game #2. Will follow the history and the situation with a winning selection full well understanding that the fundamentals are not in our favor.
Oklahoma City (P) at Houston 9:30 PM ET ESPN
4% OKC (P)
Who knew that when Houston HC McHale inserted Beverly into the starting lineup that it could have radically changed the entire outcome of the NBA Playoffs. Not only did Beverly score 16 points in Game #2 but he was also responsible for the knee injury to Russell Westbrook, the MVP of the Thunder. Westbrook will undergo knee surgery and miss his first ever NBA game. Look for a huge bounce by OKC in the first game in which they miss their fallen leader. And they won’t be overconfident knowing that Houston stormed back from 15 down in the 4th quarter to take a 4 point lead courtesy of a 21-2 run. Zig-zag theory points to Houston but this is a team that has lost 4 consecutive games, is just 14-24 ATS /loss this season and will have whatever zig-zag emotion taken away from them by injury to Westbrook. That, of course, has been fully compensated in the betting line making OKC the solid value play in this.
Saturday, April 27th
MLB
Colorado (Francis) at Arizona (Miley) (-150) 8:10 PM ET
3% Arizona (Miley) (-150)
In this matchup, we make a pure pitching play. Miley is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 23/7 KBB. Against Colorado, Miley is 4-0 with a 3.11 ERA in 6 starts, including 2-0 with a 2.49 ERA in 3 starts at this site. Colorado counters with Francis who is 1-2 with an 8.44 ERA and a 2.25 WHIP. Due to DH scheduling earlier in the week, Francis is pitching on 3 days rest. In the 8 career starts on 3 days rest, Frances has a 4.99 ERA. I reduce this rating a bit as Francis is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA recently at this site.
Toronto (Happ) at NY Yankees (Sabathia) (-150) 4:05 PM ET
3% NY Yankees (Sabathia) (-150)
After beginning the season 1-4, the Bombers are on a 12-5 run after winning the first 2 games of this series. That pushes their record to 14-2 vs. Toronto at this site. Sabathia is off to a 3-2 start with a 3.34 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 32/10 KBB. He is off a rare poor performance in which he allowed 5 runs (3 HRs) in a 5-1 loss to Tampa Bay. Look for the bounce back by Sabathia against a Toronto team against whom he has a record of 6-1 with a 2.43 ERA in his last 8 starts. The Blue Jays have underachieved at 9-15 going 1-4 most recently. Though Happ has pitched a bit better in recent starts, he has a 6.75 ERA in a pair of starts against NYY last year. I reduce the rating because the Yankees injury list continues to grow with Youkilis and now catcher, Cervelii, among the wounded.
Texas (Holland) (-145) at Minnesota (Pedro Hernandez) 4:10 PM ET
4% Texas (Holland) (-145)
Not about to stop riding the Rangers now. Texas is on a recent run of 7-1 outscoring the opposition 51-21. With a pair of victories against the Twins the last two nights, they run the record to 11-2 in this series, 5-0 at this site. Holland has pitched well this season reverting to his 2011 form following a shaky 012. This year, Holland has a 3.25 ERA with 0.98 WHIP and 22/8 KBB. Minnesota, who has dropped 3 straight, counters with Pedro Hernandez who is making only his 2nd start. In his first start, more than 2 weeks ago, Hernandez allowed 3 runs in 5 IP. Run line players take note: in the last 2 years 81/108 Texas wins have come by 2 or more runs. Consider part of your wager on the run line.
Cleveland (Kazmir) at Kansas City (Santana) (-155) 8:10 PM ET
4% Kansas City (Santana) (-155)
Pitching for the first time in 2 years and recovering from a strained oblique, Kazmir allowed 6 runs on 8 hits in 3 1/3 IP vs. Houston. The previous time Kazmir took the hill was at this site where he allowed 5 runs in 1 2/3 IP. I can’t see anything positive as he approaches this outing tonight. The Royals are off to a positive start at 11-8 with a 4-2 record at home. They look to extend a series record which has seen them win 7/8 and 4/5 at this site. Santana has been a pleasant surprise for the Royals. For the season, Santana is 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and 26/5 KBB. In his most recent 26 IP, Santana has allowed just 4 runs. Run line players take note: a whopping 90/105 recent Cleveland losses, including 9/11 this year, have been by 2 or more runs. Please consider part of your wager on the run line tonight.
Atlanta (Medlen) (-115) at Detroit (Porcello) 1:05 PM ET
3% Atlanta (Medlen) (-115)
Atlanta got locked down by An. San. last night in striking out 17 times and getting just 5 hits. Following their 13-2 start, the Braves have gone 2-5. Much has been the same for Medlen who following a streak where the Braves won consecutive Medlen starts they have failed in his last 2 trips to the mound. One of those was his most recent trip to the mound at Pittsburgh where he allowed 3 runs on 6 IP of a 4-2 loss to the Bucs. But in his 6 previous road starts, Medlin went 6-0 with a 0.64 ERA. Despite those downers for Atlanta which have reduce our rating on this selection, they are nothing compared to the troubles of Porcello. For the season, Porcello is 0-2 with an 11.08 ERA, a 2.00 WHIP and a .383 BAA. Porcello is off an outing in which he lasted just 2/3 IP allowing 9 runs and 9 hits. In 7 interleague starts, Porcello has a 7.90 ERA. Combined with a huge bullpen edge in which the Braves index of 184 is far superior to that of Detroit’s 104. We comfortably step in with this huge pitching mismatch.
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