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Friday's NBA playoff action: What bettors need to know
New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics (+2, 181)
New York leads series 3-2
The New York Knicks dressed for a funeral procession that never arrived and now face as many questions about their fashion sense as their overall play heading into Game 6 of the Eastern Conference first-round series at the Boston Celtics on Friday night. The Celtics staved off elimination for the second straight game Wednesday in New York and are trying to become the first team in NBA history to win a playoff series after dropping the first three games.
The Knicks were bubbling with so much confidence that they would close out the series on their home floor that the players dressed in "funeral black" prior to Wednesday's game to celebrate Boston's demise. Instead, the Celtics erased an 11-0 deficit and capitalized on the frigid shooting of Knicks star Carmelo Anthony and sixth man J.R. Smith to make the unthinkable - pushing the series to a deciding Game 7 - a real possibility. "I told you from Game 1 that this wasn't going to be a breeze," Anthony said after Game 5. "They threw a couple punches at us now and it's time for us to do the same."
TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN, MSG (New York), Comcast SportsNet New England (Boston)
ABOUT THE KNICKS: New York averaged a league-high 10.9 made 3-pointers during the regular season, but its inability to hit from long range has been pivotal in the past two defeats. Anthony has missed all 12 of his attempts and the Knicks have gone 12-of-52 from behind the arc in Games 4 and 5. Anthony was held to a series-low 22 points Wednesday and is shooting an abysmal 18-of-59 over the last two. Smith, typically the team's No. 2 scorer option, also was horrendous after returning from a one-game suspension, missing his first 10 shots and failing to register his first field goal until the final three minutes. Raymond Felton has been a rock for New York, scoring 48 points in the last two and averaging 18.4 points.
ABOUT THE CELTICS: Boston essentially beat the Knicks at their own game, connecting on 11-of-22 3-pointers after shooting only 30 percent from long range in the first four games. Equally important for the Celtics is the fact they put five players in double figures for the first time all series in Game 5. Brandon Bass, who has been assigned the unenviable task of guarding Anthony and was removed from the starting lineup in Game 3, delivered 17 points - as many as he scored in the first four games combined. Sixth man Jason Terry, held scoreless in the series opener, continued his revival by knocking down five 3-pointers en route to 17 points Wednesday. He's averaging 16.3 points in the last three games.
TRENDS
* Under is 5-1 in Knicks last six.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in last five meetings.
* Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.
* Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a SU win.
* Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss.
BUZZER BEATERS
1. Teams have come back to force a Game 7 after trailing 3-0 only three times in 103 attempts, and only 10 teams have extended the series to a Game 6 when facing such a deficit.
2. Anthony's teams have lost in the first round of the playoffs in eight of his nine seasons.
3. Celtics C Kevin Garnett has four straight double-doubles and is averaging 12.2 points and 14.4 rebounds.
Indiana Pacers vs. Atlanta Hawks (-1.5, 187.5)
Indiana leads series 3-2
The Atlanta Hawks have looked like a much better team at home in their first-round series with the Indiana Pacers. If they want to extend the series to a Game 7, they had better continue to show that form when the series shifts back to Atlanta for Game 6 on Friday. The Pacers have easily won their three home games but averaged 80 points in two losses on the road while getting manhandled defensively.
The Hawks ran into foul trouble and lost their composure in Game 5, drawing five technical fouls and letting the game slip away in the third quarter after Josh Smith picked up two quick personal fouls and a technical and had to sit. Indiana took advantage and spread a seven-point halftime lead out to 20 during the period before cruising to a 106-83 victory. The home team has taken each of the five games in the series by double figures, with the Pacers averaging 108.7 points at home and the Hawks stifling them in Atlanta.
TV: 7 p.m. ET, Fox Sports Indiana, Sports South (Atlanta), ESPN2
ABOUT THE PACERS: Indiana got back to doing what it had done in the first two games in Game 5, going to the inside and leaning on Paul George when necessary. After getting knocked around in Atlanta, the Pacers were clearly the aggressors in their own building and knocked the Hawks out of the post and out of the game. David West had been struggling in the series but found a rhythm in Game 5 with some strong post moves and an 18-foot jumper that Atlanta struggled to defend. George only took eight shots but hit seven of them en route to 21 points and 10 rebounds. “We needed to re-establish our confidence,” Indiana coach Frank Vogel said after Game 5. “We’re still a young team. We needed to re-establish our ability to slow them down.” The Pacers did just that in Game 5 by keeping Al Horford and Smith out of the paint for the easy baskets that had helped even the series.
ABOUT THE HAWKS: Atlanta is on the brink of elimination but can point to a 13-game winning streak over the Pacers in its building as evidence that it is not yet out of the series. The Hawks totaled four field goals in the third quarter on Wednesday and both Smith and Horford, who scored 14 points apiece to lead the team, were non-factors on the inside. Atlanta had become the aggressors in the series by moving Johan Petro into the starting lineup to feature a bigger unit in Game 3 and 4. The Hawks kept that rotation in Game 5 but were outrebounded 51-28 and outscored in the paint 36-28. After shooting 43 percent or better in the first four games, Atlanta slumped to 33.3 percent in Game 5. As Horford and Smith struggled on the inside, Devin Harris and Jeff Teague could not pick up the slack on the perimeter and combined to go 6-for-25 from the field.
TRENDS
* Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
* Over is 5-1 in Pacers' last six.
* Over is 8-2 In Hawks' last 10.
* Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.
* The favorite is 21-5 in the last 26 meetings.
BUZZER BEATERS
1. The Pacers are shooting 47.4 percent in the series at home and 32.7 percent on the road.
2. Horford averaged 22 points and 10.5 rebounds in Games 3 and 4 at home.
3. George has at least 16 points and eight rebounds in every game of the series.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets (-1, 206.5)
Oklahoma City leads series 3-2.
The Houston Rockets were all but given up on when they lost the first three games of their Western Conference playoff series against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Now Houston can even the best-of-7 series with a home win on Friday and put itself in position to become the first team to overcome a 0-3 deficit and win a playoff series. All the pressure is on the top-seeded Thunder, who are struggling without standout point guard Russell Westbrook.
Oklahoma City appeared headed to a four-game sweep of the Rockets. Westbrook was lost for the season with a knee injury in Game 2 and then the Rockets staved off elimination with an impressive Game 4 victory. Another Houston win in Oklahoma City on Wednesday has created a lot of anxious moments for the Thunder. “We have good players that have been through this before,” Oklahoma City coach Scott Brooks said Thursday. “We know we have to play better. But we also know we’re up 3-2.” The eighth-seeded Rockets remain focused on making history after the back-to-back victories. “In our minds, still nobody’s giving us a shot,” forward Chandler Parsons said. “But it doesn’t really matter. It matters what we believe in that locker room and that we believe in ourselves.”
TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, Fox Sports Oklahoma, Comcast SportsNet Houston
ABOUT THE THUNDER: Durant is averaging 38.3 points in three games since Westbrook was injured and Oklahoma City needs someone else to step up and help him carry the load. Durant tallied 36 points in Game 5 but was scoreless in the final quarter, a stanza in which Westbrook typically does a lot of the scoring. Durant is averaging 33.6 points but was just 1-for-8 from 3-point range in the Game 5 loss. “They don’t really care about anybody else on the team,” Durant said of Houston’s defensive strategy. “So when I have the ball, there’s like four guys guarding me sometimes and I’ve just got to make the pass. We didn’t make shots (in Game 5) but I trust that we’re going to make those wide-open ones.”
ABOUT THE ROCKETS: Houston standout James Harden scored 31 points and was 7-of-9 from 3-point range in Game 5 despite having a strep throat. The former Oklahoma City sixth man is averaging 26.4 points in the series. Forward Carlos Delfino and point guard Jeremy Lin are both questionable for Game 6. Delfino had his ailing left foot examined Thursday and his status will be firmed up in the hours before game time. “Carlos has got a lot of stuff going on in his foot,” Rockets coach Kevin McHale said. “He’s got bone spurs, he’s got a little fracture of a bone spur.” Lin has missed the previous two games with a chest injury.
TRENDS
* Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games playing on one day rest.
* Under is 5-1 in Rockets last six.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
BUZZER BEATERS
1. Houston has made 26 3-pointers in the last two games.
2. Thunder G Kevin Martin, the key player Houston gave up in the deal for Harden, is shooting just 30.4 percent in the series after having just three points on 1-of-10 shooting in Game 5.
3. Rockets C Omer Asik averaged 19 points and 12.5 rebounds in the back-to-back victories.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Memphis Grizzlies (-6.5, 180)
Memphis leads series 3-2.
The Los Angeles Clippers won’t know until close to tipoff on Friday whether or not they will have All-Star forward Blake Griffin available for Game 6 of the Western Conference playoff series against the host Memphis Grizzlies. The Clippers need a victory to stay alive and the right ankle injury that forced Griffin to miss the final 17-plus minutes of Monday’s Game 5 could render him inactive for the pivotal tilt. Memphis has won the last three games.
The Grizzlies have climbed out of the hole prompted by losing the first two games. Each of their three consecutive victories have been by double digits and the inside combo of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol have dominated the Clippers. Griffin isn’t the only ailing Los Angeles star. Point guard Chris Paul bruised his left thumb in Game 5 but plans to play through the pain as another loss will end the Clippers’ season. “Playing there on the road has been tough, but we’ve shown the ability to win there in the regular season,” Paul said after Thursday’s practice. “And now we’ve got to do it. Our backs are against the wall.”
TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2, Fox Sports West (Los Angeles), SportSouth (Memphis)
ABOUT THE CLIPPERS: Griffin was highly ineffective in Game 5 and had only four points in 19-plus minutes before leaving. He said after Thursday’s practice that the ankle was improving and remains hopeful he can play. “If I’m able to go and I’m able to help us, then it’s my job to go,” Griffin said. “I owe it to my teammates. If I make things a little worse and there’s no more season left, then it doesn’t really matter anyway because I’ll have a lot of time to rest and a lot of time to heal. As long as I can help my teammates and help us, then I’m going to play. That’s really the only way I’m looking at it.” Griffin is averaging 14 points and six rebounds in the series. Lamar Odom will move into the starting lineup if Griffin can’t play.
ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES: Randolph has been superb in the three consecutive victories by averaging 25.3 points and 10.3 rebounds. He averaged 13 points and six rebounds when Memphis lost the first two games. Gasol has averaged 22.5 points over the last two contests after failing to score more than 17 in any of the first three games. “I’ve been fortunate as a coach to have two premier post players,” Grizzlies coach Lionel Hollins told reporters. “And we can go inside and they can play outside. Both of them can pass the ball and it’s a luxury not many coaches have and I’m thankful for that.” Point guard Mike Conley also is having a fine series with averages of 16.2 points and 8.6 assists.
TRENDS
* Clippers are 1-5 in their last six road games.
* Clippers are 0-4 in their last four games.
* Grizzlies are 4-1 in their last five home games.
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Memphis.
* Under is 5-1 in Grizzlies last six home games.
BUZZER BEATERS
1. Los Angeles scored 112 points in its Game 1 victory and has averaged just 87.8 over the last four games.
2. Memphis F Tayshaun Prince has scored 15 points in each of the last two games after averaging just 3.3 over the first three outings.
3. Paul is averaging 21.8 points in the series after a 35-point effort in Game 5. -
Friday's NHL playoff action: What bettors need to know
New York Islanders vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (-224, 5.5)
Pittsburgh leads series 1-0
Although missing their captain, the top-seeded Pittsburgh Penguins were as good as advertised in winning the opener of their Eastern Conference first-round series. The Penguins will look to ride that momentum and secure a 2-0 edge on Friday when they host the eighth-seeded New York Islanders. Pascal Dupuis scored twice and Marc-Andre Fleury registered his sixth career postseason shutout to tie Tom Barrasso for the franchise record in Wednesday's 5-0 triumph in Game 1.
Sidney Crosby was an active participant in Thursday's practice, but admitted that "nothing's changed" in regard to his playing status. "It was nice to get in a couple of reps," said Crosby, who is still awaiting medical clearance as he recovers from a broken jaw. Pittsburgh is also dealing with other health issues - notably right wing James Neal, who missed practice after tweaking his right leg following a hit from Islanders defenseman Travis Hamonic.
TV: 7 p.m. ET, NBC Sports, TSN, MSG-Plus (New York), ROOT (Pittsburgh)
ABOUT THE ISLANDERS: John Tavares certainly did not enjoy his first career playoff game. The team's leading goal-scorer absorbed plenty of physical punishment in Game 1 and was held without a shot for the first time in 2013. While Tavares dismissed the harassment as "part of the playoffs," coach Jack Capuano stressed that the rest of the team needs to pick up its play. "I don't think it's a surprise to John that they were hard on the puck and he didn't get many chances," Capuano told Newsday. "We always talk about playing as a unit of five."
ABOUT THE PENGUINS: Shutting down Tavares was a team effort, but coach Dan Bylsma was quick to credit the play of Brandon Sutter. "It's something I've been waiting for for a while," the 24-year-old Sutter said of his postseason debut. "I think I just kind of wanted to treat it like another game. I didn't want to get too worked up over it." Jarome Iginla made his mark in his first postseason game since 2009. The veteran's slap shot left an impression on the mask of Evgeni Nabokov early in the game before he notched a pair of assists in the rout.
TRENDS
* Islanders are 59-120 in their last 179 road games.
* Islanders are 4-22 in last 26 in Pittsburgh.
* Under is 7-2-1 in last 10 meetings in Pittsburgh.
* Under is 12-2 in Penguins last 14 playing on one day rest.
OVERTIME
1. Nabokov was blistered for four goals on 15 shots before earning an early exit. The veteran Russian told reporters that he expects to play in Game 2.
2. Pittsburgh D Brooks Orpik practiced on Thursday and could be in line to return for Game 2. Orpik has been sidelined with a lower-body injury since April 23.
3. Since posting a 4-1 win over the Penguins on Jan. 29, the Islanders have been scored 21-5 en route to dropping their last five decisions.
Minnesota Wild vs. Chicago Blackhawks (-240, 5)
Chicago leads series 1-0.
The top-seeded Chicago Blackhawks got the result they wanted to open their Western Conference first-round series against the eighth-seeded Minnesota Wild, but the game was full of surprises. Chicago will try for a more conventional victory when it hosts the Wild for Game 2 on Friday. Bryan Bickell scored the overtime winner in Game 1 on Tuesday, beating surprise Minnesota starter Josh Harding with a backhand move. Harding replaced Niklas Backstrom after the veteran netminder suffered a lower-body injury during warm-up and finished with 35 saves in his first start since Jan. 30.
Making their first playoff appearance since 2008, the Wild kept pace with a more experienced Chicago team looking to fulfill the promise of its first Presidents’ Trophy since 1991 with its second Stanley Cup in four seasons. Minnesota held a lead for 17:42 in Game 1 after Cal Clutterbuck opened the scoring 4:48 into the contest. Aside from three shootout victories, Minnesota has not defeated the Blackhawks in 10 contests. The last time the Wild won in regulation at Chicago was Jan. 25, 2011. The Blackhawks slowly solved Minnesota’s stifling defense on Tuesday, recording more shots in each period - six in the first, 10 in the second and 12 in the third - and firing nine on Harding in 16:35 of overtime.
TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, CBC, RDS2, NBCSN, Fox Sports North, Comcast Sportsnet Chicago
ABOUT THE WILD: Defenseman Ryan Suter played a major role in shutting down Chicago’s potent offense, leading all skaters with 41:08 time on ice on Tuesday. Suter finished with four blocked shots and disrupted many Blackhawks scoring chances, but failed to register a shot on goal. Defenseman Jared Spurgeon blocked a team-high seven shots. Backstrom is considered day-to-day but was not at practice on Thursday, meaning Harding will likely start Game 2. Trade-deadline acquisition Jason Pominville has missed three games with a concussion and will not play on Friday. Minnesota needs Pominville to return soon - possibly for Game 3 at home on Sunday - as it is already short-handed on the right side with Dany Heatley likely sidelined for the duration of the playoffs following shoulder surgery.
ABOUT THE BLACKHAWKS: Dave Bolland and goaltender Ray Emery both missed Game 1 with lower-body injuries and although Emery worked out before the team’s practice on Thursday, coach Joel Quenneville ruled them out for Friday’s contest. Bolland has missed four games, while Emery has missed three, leaving Corey Crawford to resume his role as the team’s undisputed starter. Crawford made 26 saves on Tuesday and looked solid after allowing a soft goal to Clutterbuck early. Marian Hossa looked comfortable in his return to postseason action after a hit by Raffi Torres knocked him out of last year’s first-round series against the Phoenix Coyotes. Hossa scored a power-play goal in regulation and nearly ended the game in overtime when his backhand shot towards an open net was deflected wide by Suter’s stick.
TRENDS
* Wild are 11-30 in their last 41 against a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Under is 5-0-1 in Blackhawks' last six.
OVERTIME
1. Bolland, who has 37 points in 49 career playoff contests, was instrumental in Chicago’s 2010 Stanley Cup championship, finishing with eight goals and 16 points.
2. Minnesota allowed more goals during the regular season - 127 - than any other playoff team in the conference.
3. The Presidents’ Trophy winner lost its first-round series in three of the last four seasons.
San Jose Sharks vs. Vancouver Canucks (-139, 5)
San Jose leads series 1-0.
After becoming the first road team to post a victory this postseason, the sixth-seeded San Jose Sharks look to take control of their Western Conference first-round series against the third-seeded Vancouver Canucks when they visit the Northwest Division champions for Game 2 on Friday. San Jose fell behind before scoring three unanswered goals en route to a 3-1 triumph in the series opener on Wednesday. Defenseman Dan Boyle snapped a tie at 9:17 of the third period and Logan Couture recorded a goal and an assist for the Sharks, who lost right wing Martin Havlat to an undisclosed injury in the first period.
Roberto Luongo got the start in place of the injured Cory Schneider and played well, especially in the first period as Vancouver was outshot 15-9. Luongo will start Game 2 for Vancouver. He was given a 1-0 lead when defenseman Kevin Bieksa scored at 12:26 of the second, but Couture cashed in during a power play 4:09 later. It was the fourth straight loss against San Jose for the Canucks, who went 0-2-1 over their three-game series during the regular season.
TV: 10 p.m. ET, CNBC, CSN California (San Jose)
ABOUT THE SHARKS: San Jose had three players record multi-point performances. In addition to Couture, Boyle added an assist while Joe Pavelski helped set up a pair of goals. Patrick Marleau scored his 53rd career postseason tally in his 130th playoff game. Marleau is the second-leading active playoff goal scorer, trailing only Boston's Jaromir Jagr (78). Wednesday's victory was impressive considering San Jose went just 8-14-2 on the road during the regular season and lost three of its final four away from home. "The road hasn't been too friendly to us all year," Boyle said. "We played a very good road game. We weren't too cute, we weren't too fancy. We did what we had to do."
ABOUT THE CANUCKS: Schneider, who is out with an undisclosed injury, also missed the final two regular-season contests with the mysterious ailment. Joe Cannata dressed as Luongo's backup. The 23-year-old has yet to appear in an NHL game. Frank Corrado made his playoff debut after skating in Vancouver's final three regular-season matches. Luongo made a number of big saves in the first period, including seven during a San Jose power play. "It gave me a good rhythm for the rest of the game," Luongo said. "But obviously, when you end up losing, you always want to find a way to do more."
TRENDS
* Sharks are 8-1 in their last nine against a team with a winning record.
* Canucks are 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
* Sharks are 4-0 in the last four games against Canucks.
* Under is 9-1-1 in Canucks' last 11 home games.
* Under is 5-0-2 in Sharks' last seven road games.
OVERTIME
1. The Sharks are 9-5 in series in which they have won the first game.
2. Vancouver has lost five consecutive home playoff contests dating to Game 7 of the 2011 Stanley Cup finals.
3. Pavelski's multi-point performance was the eighth of his postseason career, while Boyle's was his 14th.Comment
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Friday's MLB weather, rain expected in KC and Chicago
Rain is in the forecast in Chicago and Kansas City on Friday. Here is the rest of the notable weather around Major League Baseball.
(All totals courtesy of BetOnline.com)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs (-102, NA)
Site: Wrigley Field
There is a 55 percent chance of thunderstorms in Chicago and the wind will blow in from center field at 10 mph.
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians (-149, 8.5)
Site: Progressive Field
The wind will blow out to left field at 10 mph.
Oakland Athletics vs. New York Yankees (-142, 8)
Site: Yankee Stadium
The wind will blow in from center field at 10 mph.
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-125, 7)
Site: PNC Park
The wind will blow in from center field at 12 mph.
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves (-174, 7.5)
Site: Turner Field
There's a 30 percent chance of rain and the winds will blow from right to left at 15 mph.
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals (NA)
Site: Kauffman Stadium
There's a 65 percent chance of rain in Kansas City.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants (+130, 6)
Site: AT&T Park
The wind will blow out to center field at 13 mph.Comment
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Three Friday starters with a 13-1 over record
Here's a look at three starters on Friday who take a combined 13-1 over record - and some great run support - to the mound:
Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds (1-1, 4.34 ERA, 5-0 O/U)
If you take out Leake's only great start this season, seven scoreless innings against the Phillies, his ERA is 5.73 in his other four games. The Reds' bats have also provided an average of 6.0 runs of support with Leake pitching, up from the team's season average of 4.4 runs a game.
Felix Doubront, Boston Red Sox (3-0, 4.24 ERA, 4-0 O/U)
The Red Sox have the second-best offense in baseball, scoring 5.37 runs per game. They're even better with Doubront on the mound, giving the lefty an average of 7.75 runs of support in his four starts. In three of his games, the bullpen has given up at least one run after Doubront left the hill.
Jeremy Guthrie, Kansas City Royals (3-0, 3.06 ERA, 4-1 O/U)
Guthrie has been stellar for Kansas City, and the offense have been just as good. In his four starts that have gone over, the Royals have scored an average of 6.0 runs, better than the team's mark of 4.52 runs per game.Comment
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'Over' bets in A's games improve to an incredible 24-5
The Oakland A's over/under record improved to a staggering 24-5 record Wednesday after the Los Angeles Angels defeated the A's 5-4. That's an insane success rate of 86 percent.
They have now played over the total in five straight games overall and 10 of their last 11 games. Any $100 bettor would be up $1,793.40 if they picked the over in each of Oakland's 29 games.
The A's keep bashing pitchers and are tops in the majors in runs scored (162, 5.6 per game), third in hits (258, 8.9 per game) and fifth in OPS (.765).
Combine this with a pitching staff that has the 25th-ranked ERA (4.33) and the 22nd-ranked opponent batting average (.261) and you have a lot of high scoring games.
So how are oddsmakers reacting?
“We try to be as consistent as we can and not overact,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, told Covers. “It’s not a matter of what the record is but how (people) bet them.”
Korner added, “we take it on a game-by-game basis, even if the total goes over 100 times. If the number is where it’s supposed to be, we’re going to keep it right there.”
The A's have a day off Thursday but get back to action on Friday as they face the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees' over/under record is 13-11-3 on the season.
A.J. Griffin gets the ball for the Athletics in the series opener against the Yankees' C.C. Sabathia. Griffin is 2-2 with a 4.65 ERA and a 4-1 O/U record. Sabathia is 4-2 with a 3.35 ERA in six starts.
This is the first time the teams will play in 2013. Sabathia went 1-0 with a 2.05 ERA in three starts versus Oakland last season. Griffin was 1-0 with an ERA of 5.23 in two starts versus the Yankees in 2012.Comment
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NASCAR betting: Aaron's 499 at Talladega preview
NASCAR betting at Talladega can be as simple as selecting a car that survives to see the last lap. The 2.66-mile Superspeedway is notorious for “The Big One”, a field-clearing wreck that can swallow up race favorites in a matter of seconds.
The oddsmakers have their favorites for this weekend’s Aaron's 499 at Talladega but in all honesty, the race is really a roll of the dice for NASCAR bettors. That means bigger value for anyone who can correctly pick the winner.
Favorite: Kyle Busch/Matt Kenseth (+1,000)
No other racetrack presents this much value for the overall favorites, which are basically a formality at Talladega. Busch had lady luck on his side last year, finishing third and second respectively in the two races at Talladega and won the Aaron’s 499 back in 2008. He’s had trouble his last two times out this season, finishing 38th and 24th after starting those races in the Top 8.
Kenseth is the most recent winner at Talladega, taking the checkered at the Good Sam Roadside Assistance 500 last fall. He was a beast in restrictor-plate races last year, winning two and finishing third in two others, and owns an average finish of 18.0 at Talladega. Crew chief Jason Ratcliff is still on the headset for the No. 20 team, for now, pending an appeal of engine penalties from two weeks ago.
Live dog: Kevin Harvick (+1,200)
Harvick is not among the favorites but is locked with eight other drivers priced at 12-1. At any other track, +1,200 would indicate an underdog. But this isn’t any other track. Harvick is coming off a win at Richmond last Saturday and knows how to survive Talladega, completing 98.54 percent of his total career laps there, including a win in 2010.
Long shot: Joey Logano (+3,000)
Logano may not have the experience at Talladega like some of his competition. But in a small sample size, the No. 22 Ford has shown some consistency at the Superspeedway, which is something even the most seasoned drivers struggle to do. In eight races, he’s placed inside the Top 10 four times, including a third and fifth-place showing, and has completed 99.87 percent of his total laps. Logano has finished inside the Top 5 in three of his last five races, placing third at Richmond last weekend.
Key stat: Richard Childress Racing owns the most Sprint Cup Series wins at Talladega with 12 overall. Hendrick Motorsports is a close second with 11.
Notable quotable:
“Someone described racing on the superspeedways of being a combination of a science project and the luck of a casino, and it’s exactly that way. You do everything in your power to take care of the science or technology side, do everything you can to build the fastest car you’ve got. But if you don’t have the luck to go with it, even if you don’t have any drama with getting the car touched – nothing happens to the car – if you’re just in the wrong spot at the wrong time at the end, it can take you out of whatever opportunity you had.” – Tony Stewart told SpeedTV about racing at Talladega.
Odds to win the Aaron’s 499 at Talladega (Courtesy of JustBet):
Kyle Busch 10-1
Matt Kenseth 10-1
Jimmie Johnson 12-1
Jeff Gordon 12-1
Kasey Kahne 12-1
Tony Stewart 12-1
Kevin Harvick 12-1
Clint Bowyer 12-1
Brad Keselowski 12-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12-1
Carl Edwards 15-1
Greg Biffle 15-1
Jamie McMurray 20-1
Martin Truex Jr. 25-1
Joey Logano 30-1
Kurt Busch 30-1
Ryan Newman 35-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 35-1
Danica Patrick 35-1
Juan Montoya 35-1
Michael Waltrip 40-1
Jeff Burton 40-1
Paul Menard 40-1
Aric Almirola 50-1
Marcos Ambrose 50-1
Regan Smith 75-1
Trevor Bayne 75-1
Elliott Sadler 75-1
David Ragan 100-1
Casey Mears 100-1
Bobby Labonte 100-1
Dave Blaney 100-1
David Gilliland 100-1
Field (Any Other Driver) 15-1Comment
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DAVE ESSLER
MLB Friday's Cliff Notes
Miami at Philadelphia: Simply because Nolasco is more than capable, and Pettibone has given up more hits than innings pitched in both his starts, as well as more flyball outs, there is no chance of taking the Flyers Phillies here, not with that bullpen.
Washington at Pittsburgh: I will surely wonder how much effort the Braves series took from the Nats, and arriving in the early morning in Pittsburgh against a rested team and AJ, have to lean Pirates here. But, the caveat may be that it's too late to back Burnett, but Nats pen has been vulnerable and Pirates has not.
New York at Atlanta: Same thing. Really wonder how much emotion the Braves had to spend. Minor can give up the long ball, and Marcum had to pitch in the 15 inning game, so I would think that the over might be in play here, and no chance of laying -180 or even the RL. The other way if you made me. Like the total, although the weather may not be cooperating.
St. Louis at Milwaukee: Seem pretty cheap to play on Lohse and pretty respectful of Miller, who has pitched exactly 30 innings, some of which was a one-hit outing against these Brewers. Lean Milwaukee because they've already seen him, and lean under.
Arizona at San Diego: Normally I'd be all over the home underdog, but I won't fade Miley and the Padres playing in Wrigley Thursday afternoon. It's a possible RL play if anything, and lean under.
Dodgers at Giants: Certainly a lot of respect for Kerhsaw and very little for the Dodgers offense with a total of six. With that total and the Giants RL at only +135 right now, that is the play I would make.
Seattle at Toronto: Surely don't love road favorites, but with Seattle having a day off, Toronto playing a Division rival, and Romero making and early start (after pitching terrible in the Minors) with Johnson going on the DL, I'd have to take Felix here.
Oakland at New York: Ask yourself what this line would have been on CC at home a year ago, or even a month ago. More, is the right answer. With Crisp out, Young questionable, and Reddick not hitting LHP even before this slump, I most certainly lean Yankees and under.
Minnesota at Cleveland: We don't like to get in front of teams that are as hot as the Indians are at the plate. But, Masterson had thrown an awful lot of pitches and started to settle back to his usual self. I would put it past Pedro Martinez Hernandez to keep the Twins in this game and the Twins pen has been pretty solid lately. RL play on the Twins, perhaps.
Boston at Texas: I simply cannot back Doubront because you just don't know what you're going to get. He can walk four in an inning at any given time, or strike out the side on nine pitches at any given time. Not unlike the Rangers offense. Feast or famine. This game has "no ma" written on it at the moment.
Detroit at Houston: Norris is perhaps Houston's best starter and at home he's been tough. I have never been a big Fister fan anyway, but he's proving me wrong this year. The total might be too high just based on "Detroit" and "Minute Maid", and there's no chance of me laying -180. I'm just not one to take those risks, so Houston RL and under, perhaps.
Baltimore at Angels: Vargas is quietly having a bad year, and I say quietly only because he's about the fifth from the bottom on that team in terms of visible accountability for this season's rough start. Gonzalez hasn't been a whole lot better, so I lean Orioles and over.
Tampa Bay at Colorado: You do know that Moore will have to hit in this game, and that the Rays traveled after playing a few innings and getting rained out, while the Rockies went skiing or something. Colorado is 9-3 at home, and you do know how the Rays can go into those hitting funks. Tough spot and either a gift on Moore or the Rockies in the altitude (as opposed to a dome) may have a late inning advantage. I know someone that's about to send me an email for thinking this wayComment
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JOE WIZ FREE PLAY
Under 7 runs Arizona and San DiegoComment
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MLB
Hot pitchers
-- Villanueva is 1-1, 2.29 in five starts this season.
-- Minor is 3-2, 2.48 in five starts this season.
-- Burnett is 2-0, 2.00 in his last three starts.
-- Former Cardinal Lohse is 1-3, 2.53 in five starts this season.
-- Miley is 2-0, 2.40 in five starts this season.
-- Zito is 3-0, 0.00 (21 IP) in three home starts this season. Kershaw is 3-2, 2.16 in his six starts this year.
-- Moore is 5-0, 1.13 so far this season.
-- FHernandez is 2-0, 1.23 in his last three starts.
-- Sabathia is 4-1, 3.32 in his last five starts.
-- Boston is 4-0 in Doubront starts (3-0, 4.24) this season, scoring 30 runs.
-- PHernandez is 1-0, 2.70 in two starts this season.
-- Guthrie is 1-0, 2.75 in his last three starts. Axelrod is 0-0, 3.00 in his last three starts.
-- Fister is 3-0, 2.79 in his last four starts.
Cold pitchers
-- Leake is 1-1, 4.66 in five starts this season.
-- Nolasco has a 5.00 RA in his last three starts; Marlins are 0-4 in his starts when they score less than six runs. Pettibone has a 4.36 RA in two starts.
-- Detwiler is 0-2, 4.91 in his last couple starts.
-- Marcum allowed three runs in four IP in his first '13 start; he also lost the 15-inning game in Miami Monday night.
-- Miller is 1-2, 3.57 in his last three starts.
-- Marquis is 2-2, 5.10 in five starts this season.
-- Francis is 0-2, 12.18 in his last four starts.
-- Romero is 1-1, 5.00 in his last four starts.
-- Griffin is 0-2, 10.64 in his last couple starts.
-- Masterson is 1-2, 6.38 in his last three starts.
-- Holland is 0-1, 7.11 in his last couple starts.
-- Norris is 1-2, 9.26 in his last three starts.
-- Gonzalez is 1-1, 5.79 in his last four starts. Vargas is 0-3, 5.55 in his last four starts.
Totals
-- Under is 8-4-1 in last thirteen Cub games.
-- Over is 9-3-1 in Philly's last thirteen home games.
-- Nine of last twelve Washington games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Atlanta home games stayed under total.
-- 12 of 16 games at Miller Park went over the total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Arizona games.
-- 10 of last 12 Dodger games went over the total.
-- Last three Colorado games went over the total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Toronto games.
-- Over is 24-4 in last 28 Oakland games.
-- Six of last seven Minnesota games stayed under total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Toronto games.
-- Over is 7-1-1 in last nine Kansas City games.
-- Over is 6-1-2 in last nine Houston games.
-- Seven of last nine Baltimore games went over the total.
Hot teams
-- Washington won its last two games, allowing one run. Pirates won six of their last eight home games.
-- Brewers won eight of their last 10 home games, but lost last two. St Louis won seven of its last ten games overall.
-- Padres won six of their last eight games.
-- San Francisco won seven of its last nine home games. Dodgers won three of last four road games.
-- Bronx won nine of its last eleven home games.
-- Kansas City won seven of its last ten games.
-- Indians won last four games, outscoring foes 39-5.
-- Boston won seven of its last eight games.
-- White Sox won four of their last six away games.
-- Detroit won seven of its last nine games.
-- Orioles won ten of their last fifteen games.
Cold teams
-- Cubs lost eight of their first twelve home games. Cincinnati lost five of its last seven games overall.
-- Miami lost ten of its thirteen road games. Phillies are 7-10 in their last 17 games overall.
-- Mets lost six of their last seven games. Atlanta lost six of last eight.
-- Arizona lost its last three games, allowing 17 runs.
-- Rockies lost seven of last eleven games. Tampa Bay is 4-11 on road.
-- Oakland lost five of its last six road games.
-- Twins are 3-5 in their last eight away games.
-- Blue Jays lost nine of their last twelve games. Seattle lost seven of its last nine away games.
-- Texas lost four of its last five games.
-- Houston lost 14 of its last 18 games.
-- Angels lost seven of their last nine games.Comment
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NBA
Immense pressure on New York, which lost last two games, after taking a 3-0 series lead; Anthony/Smith shot combined 11-38 in Game 5, after Smith came back from being suspended for Game 4. NY bench was -38 in Game 5; not sure why they kept Smith on floor when he was pretty much a liability. Three NY series wins stayed under total; two wins by Boston both went over; Knicks have had fewer turnovers in every game of series (+22). Anthony is now 18-59 last two games- Knicks shot better than 42.1% from floor once in this series (34.4/39.5% last two).
Home side won all nine Atlanta-Indiana games this season; Hawks lost all three road games in this series by 17-15-23 points, then won twice at home, by 21-11 points. Seven of nine series games this season went over total; eight of last ten Atlanta games also went over. George was 24-61 (39.3%) in series in first four series games, then went 7-8 last game, hard to figure; he is 22-30 on foul line last four games, after going 17-18 in Game 1. Pacers lost last four road games, including loss at Cleveland by 19; their last road win was April 1 at the Clippers.
Home side won four of five LA-Memphis games, but now Grizzlies are in driver's seat after winning Game 5 at Staples, and with Griffin's ankle an issue. Paul had 35 last game, but Crawford was only other Clipper to score more than seven; Griffin was 2-7 from floor in 20:00. Four of five series games went over total. LA is just 26-98 from arc in series; Clips have taken 40 less FTs than Griz so far in this series. Memphis won 16 of last 17 home games, with its only loss to Clippers April 13; they're getting more out of Prince than Thunder is from Martin, after two teams traded off huge pieces of their team (Gay/Harden).
Rockets staved off elimination by winning Games 4-5 without Lin; they made 26-63 from arc- in Game 5, Houston took 37 2-point shots, 37 on foul line, and 35 behind arc, very unusual. Houston FG% has gone from 36.3/39.6/43.4/48.7/47.2% in series- they're getting easier baskets with Westbrook not playing, which makes sense. Thunder is still struggling to find second option to Durant, who has 41-38-36 points last three tilts, but Sefolosha is 6-20 since Westbrook has been out. Martin was 1-10 on Game 5, not exactly the production OC paid for. Last four series games were decided by a total of 15 points, after Thunder won opener by 29.Comment
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DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index
05/03/13 Predictions
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
Game #6
New York 95, BOSTON 94
Indiana vs. ATLANTA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Western Conference Quarterfinals
Game #6
Oklahoma City 108, HOUSTON 107
MEMPHIS 96, L.A. Clippers 89Comment
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DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index
05/03/13 Predictions
Season: 287-181 (.613)
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
Game #2
PITTSBURGH 4, N.Y. Islanders 2
MONTREAL 3, Ottawa 2
Western Conference Quarterfinals
Game #2
CHICAGO 3, Minnesota 2
VANCOUVER 3, San Jose 2Comment
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
Our Free Plays are 1025-762 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !
Free winner FRI Atl Hawks -1Comment
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Mighty Quinn
Mighty hit with the Nets (+2) Thursday.
Friday it’s the Celtics. The deficit is 417 sirignanos.Comment
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