5-4-13

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Cappers Access

Nets -6.5
Yankees -120
Tigers(RL) -1.5(-104)

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Don Best Consensus

Boston Texas
Pick: Under

The under is 7-2-1 in the Rangers last 10 home games. The under is 9-4 in Texas' last 13 Saturday games, and the under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. On the season, the under is 2-0 in John Lackey's starts, and 4-1 in Alexi Ogando's starts.

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Marco D'Angelo | MLB ML - Saturday, May 4 2013 8:10PM
ML 979 TAM (-130) Hilton vs 980 COL double-dime bet

Analysis: PLAY: TAMPA BAY
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY

We cashed last night with Tampa Bay and we are going to come right back with them here. Tampa Bay is hitting the lights out of the Baseball right now as they have scored 7 or more runs in 4 of their last 5 games. Tonight they face Jon Garland who has been no mystery on the mound in his last 2 starts. He has gone 6 innings in each of his last 2 starts and in those 12 innings of work he has given up 18 hits and 6 walks. That's 24 base runners in 12 innings not something you want to do in this ballpark. Garland saw 10 of those 24 base runners come around to score. Tampa sends David Price to the mound who after going winless in his 1st 5 starts finally got the win in his last start as he went 7 innings giving up 3 runs on 6 hits while striking out 9. Even though that was Price's first win of the season it wasn't because he was pitching bad as he gave up 3 runs or less in 4 of his 6 starts this season. To add to what I feel is a huge advantage with this pitching match upon the team stats. Colorado is now 2-14 in inter league play since start of last season. Colorado is 19-42 vs lefties since the start of last season. And finally Colorado is just 3-17 as a Home Underdog of 125 or less since the start of last season.

TAKE TAMPA BAY as MARCO'S MLB SATURDAY BEST BET

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chase Diamond

8* San Diego Padres

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NBA CHICAGO at BROOKLYN

Play Against - Any team (CHICAGO) revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a close home loss by 3 points or less
73-35 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.6% 34.5 units )
10-4 this year. ( 71.4% 5.6 units )

NBA CHICAGO at BROOKLYN

Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (BROOKLYN) in a game involving two average shooting teams (43.5-45.5%), good rebounding team (+3 to +5.5 Reb/G) vs. an average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) after 42+ games
121-35 since 1997. ( 77.6% 52.6 units )
10-6 this year. ( 62.5% -2.1 units )

NBA CHICAGO at BROOKLYN

Play Under - All teams where the first half total is between 90.5 and 95.5 points after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games
161-94 since 1997. ( 63.1% 57.6 units )
6-8 this year. ( 42.9% -2.8 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB NY METS at ATLANTA

Play Against - Any team (ATLANTA) after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs against opponent with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games
149-100 over the last 5 seasons. ( 59.8% 56.1 units )
3-4 this year. ( 42.9% -0.4 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB BALTIMORE at LA ANGELS

BALTIMORE is 46-29 (+25.2 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.4) , OPPONENT (4.2)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Boston at Texas

The Red Sox look to bounce back from last night's 7-0 loss and build on their 5-1 record in their last last 6 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Boston is the pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+140). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, MAY 4 Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cingrani) 14.908; Cubs (Samardzija) 14.059 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); No Total Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-125); N/A

Game 953-954: St. Louis at Milwaukee (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.090; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.950 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-125); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+105); Under

Game 955-956: Washington at Pittsburgh (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 15.936; Pittsburgh (Locke) 15.278 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Washington (-140); 7 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-140); Under

Game 957-958: Miami at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Fernandez) 14.581; Philadelphia (Hamels) 14.145 Dunkel Line: Miami by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-220); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Miami (+195); Over

Game 959-960: NY Mets at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 13.619; Atlanta (Teheran) 15.134 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 8 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-140); Under

Game 961-962: Arizona at San Diego (8:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Corbin) 16.244; San Diego (Richard) 15.450 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: San Diego (-130); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+110); Over

Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at San Francisco (9:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Magill) 15.079; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 16.146 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 6 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 965-966: Oakland at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Colon) 15.525; NY Yankees (Hughes) 14.450 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 9 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-115); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-105); Over

Game 967-968: Minnesota at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Correia) 15.575; Cleveland (Kazmir) 15.205 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-110); 9 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-110); Over

Game 969-970: Seattle at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Iwakuma) 14.122; Toronto (Dickey) 14.511 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Toronto (-125); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-125); Under

Game 971-972: Baltimore at LA Angels (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Garcia) 14.579; LA Angels (Hanson) 14.206 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-140); 9 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+120); Over

Game 973-974: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Axelrod) 14.810; Kansas City (Guthrie) 16.409 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-145); 8 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-145); Under

Game 975-976: Detroit at Houston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 16.091; Houston (Harrell) 13.574 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: Detroit (-185); 8 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-185); Over

Game 977-978: Boston at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lackey) 15.616; Texas (Ogando) 14.711 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: Texas (-160); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (+140); Under

Game 979-980: Tampa Bay at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 16.254; Colorado (Garland) 16.601 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-125); 9 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+105); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE ESSLER

3* Chicago Cubs +115 over Reds

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Marco D'Angelo

KENTUCKY DERBY SELECTIONS

TOP CHOICE #16 ORB

Of all the horses coming into the Derby ORB to me has been the most impressive in what he has done in his prep races. At the start of his 3 year old campaign Trainer Shug McGaughey added lasix and this horse hasn't lost since as he is 3 for 3 this year. When coming into the Derby you want to look for a horse that is peaking at the right time and if you watched Orb in the Fountain of Youth or The Florida Derby you saw a horse that was stretching out and drawing away deep stretch in both of those races which tells me two things. First we know he had plenty left in the tank the way he was stretching out at the wire and two it is also a good indication that he will be able to get the extra distance of the mile and a quarter in today's Kentucky Derby. Finally the horse has looked great all week in his morning works and delivered a great workout on Monday going 4f in 47 4/5 seconds. His racing style should have him sitting mid pack just off the second tier of horses which will keep off of a fast pace if they get stupid on the front end yet close enough to mount his move while not having to deal with all the traffic that the deep closers will have to deal with. Jockey Joel Rosario was the leading jockey at the just conclude Keeneland meet and is the current leader at the Churchill meet. Orb is the Horse to Beat.

TAKE ORB WIN-PLACE-SHOW


LONGSHOT SPECIAL #5 NORMANDY INVASION

This is a horse that I don't think we have seen his best effort yet. With only 5 lifetime starts this horse has the opportunity to really make a big step forward today. His last race was very impressive as he was closing fast on undefeated Verrazano in the Wood Memorial. Being that was only his 2nd race of the year that was a huge race for this colt. In his only other start this year he had all kinds of problems in the Risen Star as he broke from the badly spotting the field a lead then had traffic problems and had to race the turn wide but even with all of that he was running the fastest in deep stretch as he got up to 5th with the other 4 right in front of him as it was a 4 horse finish at the wire with him just a length and a 1/4 off at the wire for 5th. Again the way this horse was running at the wire in his last 2 starts indicates he was made for the mile and a quarter distance.

TAKE NORMANDY INVASION WIN-PLACE-SHOW



The next few Horses are the Horses we like in order of preference and will be used in exactas and trifectas..



#8 GOLDENCENTS

With not a lot of speed in the race Goldencents will be on the lead or just off of it. If they go moderate or slow fractions in the early parts of this race Goldencents may not be able to be run. Do I think he is a horse that can go wire to wire the answer is no. But if he gets on the lead in slow fractions he will still be there in deep stretch and must be used in exactas and trifectas.


#6 MYLUTE

Here's a horse that should be able to get away mid pack for jockey Rosie Napravnik who is having a big year riding. Rosie was the 3rd leading jockey at Keeneland this year hitting the board with 54.5% of her mounts and so far at Churchill Downs she is hitting the board with 60% of her mounts. Rosie has a big chance to be the first female to ever win the Kentucky Derby as this horse is coming off of it's best race of it's career as Trainer Thomas Amoss made an equipment change in the last race and Mylute responded with a fast closing 2nd as he and Revolutionary drew off from the field and battled right to the wire. That was only Mylute's 2nd race of the year so a major jump in improvement today would not surprise me at all and this horse must be used in the exactas and trifectas.

#14 VERRAZANO

It's hard not to like a undefeated horse but Verrazano looked to be all out in holding off Normandy Invasion in the Wood Memorial which suggests he may not be able to get the distance of a mile and a quarter. This race is much tougher the Wood Memorial was and at a longer distance so even though I don't think he can win this he will be sitting close enough turning for home that he could hold on for part of the exactas and trifectas.

#3 REVOLUTIONARY

Basically what you have here is a horse that will be closing with a inside post and the jockey Calvin Borel that has won 3 of the last 5 Kentucky Derby's. Revolutionary is coming off back to back wins but his regular jockey opted to take Normandy Invasion who is coming off of a 2nd place finish. So if JJ Castellano knows these 2 horses he thinks Normandy Invasion is the better of the 2. Calvin Borel is perfectly suited for this horse and still has to used as part of the exactas and trifectas.

#12 ITSMYLUCKYDAY

A lot cappers like the ITSMYLUCKYDAY has looked at Churchill Downs this week and it's hard to knock a horse that has 2 wins and a second in 3 starts this year. I think this horse can be a part of the ticket but underneath but I don't think he can win the race for 2 reasons. First he was beaten soundly in the Florida Derby by ORB who just ran away from him in the final 1/16 of a mile. Yes he was second best but it was distant second best. Secondly you ha ¿ve heard me say that a lot of these horses have the license to jump up with a big improvement because they have only a few lifetime starts so we have yet to see their best yet but in ITSMYLUCKYDAY's case this will be his 11th start of his career which I think is too many for a 3 year old on the first Saturday of May. By the time a horse has this many starts he is who he is and what he is is a horse that has hit the board 8 out of 10 times in his career and finished 2nd to the horse I believe is the horse to beat in here so he has to used as part of the exactas and trifectas.


EXACTA WAGERS TOTAL INVESTED $89

$1 Exacta Wheel 5-8-16 with 3-5-6-8-12-14-16 = $18
$1 Exacta Wheel 3-5-6-8-12-14-16 with 5-8-16 = $18
$1 Exacta Box 5-6-8-14-16 = $20
$5 Exacta Wheel 16 with 5-6-8 = $15
$2 Exacta Wheel 5-6-8 with 16 = $6
$2 Exacta Wheel 5 with 6-8-16 = $6
$1 Exacta Wheel 6-8-16 with 5 = $6

TRIFECTA WAGERS TOTAL INVESTED $87

$1 Trifecta Wheel 5-6-8-16 with 5-6-8-16 with 3-5-6-8-12-14-16 = $60
$1 Trifecta Wheel 16 with 5-6-8 with 3-5-6-8-12-14 = $15
$1 Trifecta Wheel 16 with 5-6-8 with 5-6-8 = $6
$1 Trifecta Wheel 5-6-8 with 16 with 5-6-8 = $6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Michael Dempsey

Churchill Downs Race 5 OClm $75,000N1X (12:38 ET)

No.3 Perfect Title 6-1
No.10 Ghost Hunter 6-1
No.8 Code West 7-5
No.2 Balance of Power 10-1

Race Analysis
Code West is going to be the chalk in here, but let’s take stab we can beat him. The edge goes to Perfect Title, who very wide with his run and was making up ground late in a fourth place finish over polytrack at Keeneland in his first go against winners. He earned a solid figure two back breaking his maiden at Fair Grounds in a race washed off the turf. The colt overcame a tough post, was outrun early and came with a strong five wide rally to get up late. Two runners came out of that maiden race to win next out. Blinkers go on here for the Stewart barn. The colt is a half bro to Grade 3 winner Seeking the Title ($273,916).

Ghost Hunter stretches out to a route of ground for the first time here in his third career start. He broke his maiden in his debut at Tampa Bay Downs and then last out was a game second against Alw-1 foes at Keeneland on poly going seven furlongs. He was beaten 3/4 of a length by Winning Cause, who came back to win the Lexington (G3) at Keeneland in his next outing on April 20. The third place finisher Bernie the Jet also won next out, taking an Alw-1 race at Belmont Park on May 1.

Code West tracked the early pace and tired to finish sixth in the Louisiana Derby (G2) last out. The winner Revolutionary is my top pick in today’s Derby and the third place finisher Departing came back to win the Illinois Derby (G3) in his next start. He was only beaten a nose in the Risen Star and he ran a good second to Super Ninety Nine against Alw-1 optional claimers three back. He is going to be tough here if he runs back to those efforts two and three back, but his price is going to be very much on the light side.

Race Rating: $$

Wagering
WIN: No.3 to win at 4-1 or better.
EXACTA: 3,10 / 2,3,8,10
TRIFECTA: 3,10 / 2,3,8,10 / 2,3,4,8,10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rick Needham

RACE #9 - CHURCHILL DOWNS - 3:57 PM EASTERN POST

The Churchill Downs Stakes

7.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE II FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $400,000.00 PURSE
#9 DELAUNAY
#8 TRINNIBERG
#3 LAURIE'S ROCKET
#5 UNBRIDLED'S NOTE

#9 DELAUNAY has won 5 of 11 starts sprinting at today's "specialized distance" of 7.0 furlongs on the dirt, is the pace profile leader, and comes off 5 straight wins, with his last 3 "Circle Trip Efforts," also qualifying as "POWER RUN WINS." The morning line favorite is #8 TRINNIBERG who drops in class (-5), and is the overall speed leader in this stakes field today ... he also has nice early speed abilities to compliment for this sprint, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in three of his last five outings, winning in his 2nd race back.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Byk

CHURCHILL DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Apropos 8-5
Best Value: #6 Honey Hues 6-1
Next Best: #3 Glamour Puss 2-1

2nd: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Gombey Dancer 7-2
Next Best: #1 River Rocks 3-1
Exotics Use: #8 Slan Abhile 5-2
Super Add: #6 Our Double Play 8-1

3rd: OC/N3X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 The Pizza Man 3-1
Best Value: #7 Cavalero 10-1
Next Best: #1 Old Time Hockey 5-2
Exotics Use: #6 Screenplay 3-1

4th: MSW, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #12 Troubadour Tango 5-1
Best Value: #5 Bama Bound 6-1
Next Best: #3 Saint X. 3-1
Exotics Use: #13 (AE) Argosy 5-1
Super Add: #6 Esplendido 8-1

5th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Code West 7-5
Best Value: #5 Brazilian Court 10-1
Next Best: #3 Perfect Title 6-1
Exotics Use: #4 Bellarmine 6-1

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-8
3: 1-5-6-7
4: 3-5-6-12 (3-5-12-13 if 13 draws in)
5: 8

3x4x4x1 = 48 ($24 for .50)

6th: 19th Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G3), 4+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$1,000,000 Guaranteed P6 starts here..

Not a great deal of speed. Southern Dude can wire..

Best Value: #1 Southern Dude 10-1
Next Best: #4 Ghost Is Clear 9-2
Exotics Use: #8 Ikon Ike 3-1
Super Add: #6 Chamberlain Bridge 4-1

7th: 27th Humana Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Aubby K 7-2
Best Value: #3 Same Cross 8-1
Next Best: #2 Rumor 5-2
Exotics Use: #4 Emma's Encore 8-1

<$50 P4 Play:

4: 3-5-6-12 (3-5-12-13 if 13 draws in)
5: 8
6: 1-2-3-4-6-8
7: 2-3-4-6

4x1x6x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

8th: 28th Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Lots of pace here..

Most Likely: #5 Hungary Island 4-1
Best Value: #7 Karlovy Vary 12-1
Next Best: #8 Marketing Mix 5-2
Exotics Use: #3 Daisy Devine 3-1

9th: 79th Churchill Downs (G2), 4+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Delauney 2-1
Next Best: #5 Unbridled's Note 5-1
Best Value: #7 Politicallycorrect 15-1
Exotics Use: #2 Hierro 10-1

10th: 27th Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Sure hope the questionable weather doesn't dash this superb matchup. Feeling like McGaughey planning for this and LoPresti calling an audible provides tiniest edge to Point of Entry..

Most Likely: #9 Point of Entry 7-5
Next Best: #8 Wise Dan 6-5
Best Value: #5 Swift Warrior 20-1
Exotics Use: #3 Optimizer 20-1

11th: 139th Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Super Hi-5)

After two weeks talking about this Derby, there's not much else to be said. Top pair from Florida Derby and SA Derby winner are the three most accomplished horses here. Mylute and Java's War are the types that invade the exotics in this race..

Most Likely: #16 Orb 7-2
Best Value: #12 Itsmyluckyday 15-1
Next Best: #8 Goldencents 5-1
Exotics Use: #6 Mylute 15-1
Super/Hi-5: #19 Java's War 15-1

<$50 P5 Play:

7: 2-3-4-6
8: 3-5-7-9
9: 9
10: 8-9
11: 8-12-16

4x4x1x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-5-7-9
9: 2-5-7-9
10: 8-9
11: 8-12-16

4x4x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48

12th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Bull Dozer 4-1
Next Best: #2 Rightfully So 3-1
Best Value: #4 Seven Lively Sins 12-1
Exotics Use: #7 Wild Target 4-1

13th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f

Very deep set of maidens with many having run races that that look good enough. I make 7 possible and another 3 close by..

Best Value: #7 Sylvester 15-1
Next Best: #5 Column 5-1
Exotics Use: #6 Best Request 10-1
Super Add: #12 To the Stars 6-1

<$75 P4 Play:

10: 8-9
11: 8-12-16
12: 2-4-8
13: 1-2-5-6-7-8-9-12

2x3x3x8 = 144 x .50 = $72

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GUS ALONSO'S DERBY DAY ACTION

Churchill Downs - Happy Derby Day

R1 - OC 62k/N2X

#3 Glamour Puss (2-1)
#4 Flashy American (8-1)
#1 Apropos (8-5)
#6 Honey Hues (6-1)

R2 - OC 75k/N1X

#5 Finn's Quest (6-1) - Could end being a nice closing sprinter.
#2 Gombey Dancer (7-2)
#8 Slan Abhaile (5-2)
#1 River Rocks (3-1)

R3 - OC 80k/N3X (Turf 8.5F)

#3 Atigun (4-1)
#6 Screenplay (3-1)
#5 Under Control (6-1)
#1 Old Time Hockey (5-2)

R4 - MSW 50k

#4 King of Broadway (5-1)
#3 Saint X. (3-1)
#12 Troubadour Tango (5-1)
#2 Indy Awesome (8-1)

R5 - OC 75k/N1X

#12 Hard Aces (12-1)
#8 Code West (7-5)
#3 Perfect Title (6-1)
#4 Bellarmine (8-1)

PK4 - 2 5 / 1 3 5 6 / 3 4 5 8 12 / 8 12 = $40 for $.50

R6 - G3 Turf Sprint (Turf 5F)

#4 Ghost Is Clear (9-2)
#2 Havelock (7-2)
#8 Icon Ike (3-1)
#1 Southern Dude (10-1)

R7 - G1 Humana Distaff

#8 Byrama (GB) (5-1)
#2 Rumor (5-2)
#3 Same Cross (8-1)
#6 Aubby K (7-2)

PK4 - 3 4 5 8 12 / 2 4 / 1 2 3 4 8 / 2 8 = $50 for $.50

R8 - Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (Turf 8F)

#5 Hungry Island (4-1) - BEST BET - Absolutely love her chances and should sit a perfect trip.
#7 Karlovy Vary (12-1) -
#4 Frontside (30-1)
#3 Daisy Devine (3-1)

R9 - G2 Churchill Downs

#2 Hierro (10-1) - It feels that this has been the plan all along and a big performance is expected on favorite surface.
#5 Unbridled Note (5-1)
#9 Delaunay (2-1)
#7 Politicallycorrect (15-1)

R10 - Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (Turf 9F) - Fantastic race with two of the best horses in training.

#9 Point of Entry (7-5) - Handled Animal Kingdom at Gulfstream and it doesn't get any easier with Horse of the Year to his inside.
#8 Wise Dan (6-5) - Champ will stretchout a bit and give his best.
#2 Slim Shadey (GB) (12-1) - Has the remote possibility to sneak away from top two and score at a big number.
#5 Swift Warrior (20-1) - Nice price to round out bottom of exotics in chalky race.

PK3 - 5 / 2 5 / 2 8 9 = Punch it a few times

R11 - G1 Kentucky Derby

#1 Black Onyx - SCRATCHED

#2 Oxbow (30-1)
Post obviously hurts chances, but expect Stevens to send right away and splash the others.

#3 Revolutionary (10-1)
Has shown the killer instinct of getting to the wire first after a few maiden tries. Borel factor will bring down the price.

#4 Golden Soul (50-1)
Should relish the extra distance and don't discount ability to blow up the bottom of a Super or Super High Five.

#5 Normandy Invasion (12-1)
Strong finish in Wood Memorial attracted plenty of bandwagoners. Logical contender.

#6 Mylute (15-1)
A big question with the extra furlong to deal with.

#7 Giant Finish (50-1)
New York bred is in deep waters.

#8 Goldencents (5-1)
Coming off Big Santa Anita Derby win. Interesting to see how 1st time Derby jockey will handle the situation.

#9 Overanalyze (15-1)
Has a pattern going - Good race - Bad race throughout his running lines and unfortunately it's time for a Bad race.

#10 Palice Malice (20-1)
Adds hood and should not be ignored to round out bottom of exotics.

#11 Lines of Battle (30-1)
Complete wildcard, add Lasix and there's a bunch of talent from the Dam's family. Interesting especially at a huge price.

#12 Itsmyluckyday (15-1)
Has shown the ability and seems to be peaking at the right moment.

#13 Falling Sky (50-1)
Speedster will take them as long as he can before the anchor comes out.

#14 Verrazano (4-1)
Undefeated talented runner has never seen the whip and I have the feeling there's more in the tank. Dangerous

#15 Charming Kitten (20-1)
Turf horse will probably finish mid pack at best.

#16 Orb (7-2)
He's the one everyone will fear late with legitimate reasons. Just needs to work out a trip.

#17 Will Take Charge (20-1)
9 week layoff is a concern for this type of race. Pass

#18 Frac Daddy (50-1)
Ridiculous price for a runner that seems to be improving and loves the surface. Playable.

#19 Java's War (15-1)
Usually walks out of the gate, but has lethal closing kick that could make things interesting late.

#20 Vyjack (15-1)
Has only one lost in career and it was encouraging to see him continue running to the wire in Wood Memorial. Tough post to deal with.

Selections

#12 Itsmyluckyday (15-1)
#14 Verrazano (4-1)
#16 Orb (7-2)
#11 Lines of Battle (30-1)
#18 Frac Daddy (50-1)

Super High Five - 12 / 11 14 16 18

PK6 - 1 2 4 8 / 2 8 / 5 / 2 5 / 9 / 11 12 14 16 18 = $160

PK5 - 1 2 3 6 8 / 5 / 2 5 9 / 2 8 9 / 11 12 14 16 = $90 for $.50

PK4 - 4 5 7 / 2 5 9 / 2 8 9 / 11 12 14 16 = $54 for $.50

R12 - OC 62k/N2X

#6 Looking Cool (10-1)
#2 Rightfully So (3-1)
#8 Bull Dozer (4-1)
#1 Wash Park (15-1)

R13 - MSW 50k

#1 Pontiff (7-2)
#12 To the Stars (6-1)
#6 Best Request (10-1)
#8 Lifes Reward (6-1)

PK4 - 2 8 9 / 11 12 14 16 18 / 2 6 / 1 6 12 = $45 for $.50

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wizard

16-3-5-14-8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kentucky Derby Picks & Analysis

1. Goldencents

2. Orb

3. Revolutionary

4. Normandy Invasion

Kentucky Derby Superfecta Longshots: Palace Malice, Overanalyze, Itsmyluckyday

Horse to reluctantly include on Kentucky Derby exotic tickets: Verrazano

No matter how many times we watch the replays we keep going back to the same horse to win the 139th running of the Kentucky Derby – Goldencents.

Goldencents fits every requirement we like in a Kentucky Derby winner. He’s fit and he’s a fighter. He also has the highest last race Beyer Speed Figure. While we often look beyond the numbers in this race, the fact that he has the highest Beyer Speed Figure simply gives us some bonus points.

We weren’t convinced Goldencents was legitimate in the spring, but after engaging in a suicidal duel with Flashback in the San Felipe and tiring to finish fourth, he came back with a huge effort to win the Santa Anita Derby-G1 going 1 1/8-miles on April 6. In that race he pressed a decent pace, challenged the pacesetter turning for home, shook that one off, turned back a heavy bid from Flashback and drew out to win by 1 ¼-lengths. Good horses improve off tough races and if the Santa Anita Derby was any indication, Goldencents is good horse.

Also to the benefit of Goldencents is the fact that his trainer Doug O’Neill won this race last year with I’ll Have Another. And Goldencents has high-class speed in race where there isn’t a lot of it. He doesn’t need the lead to win, and the fact that he has natural speed will help him establish position early and avoid trouble in the bulky 19-horse field.

We have two minor concerns about Goldencents. His jockey Kevin Krigger is a rookie in this race and while he did a great job in the Santa Anita Derby, the Kentucky Derby can be a real pressure cooker. Interestingly, Krigger is seeking to become the first black jockey to win the Kentucky Derby since 1902. We’re hoping he gives a Goldencents a nice smooth trip just off a moderate pace and has enough left to hold off the ralliers.

The second concern we have with Goldencents is his pedigree. While proven at 1 1/8-miles, his pedigree may only be good enough to get the 1 ¼-miles of the Kentucky Derby with a good trip that doesn’t involve staying too close to a fast pace. If he goes to fast early, he may not get the distance. Of course there’s always the remote possibility that he could get the lead by himself, rate and draw away in the stretch. Here’s hoping!

While Goldencents was the third choice on the morning line, we have a feeling he will be well bet on Derby Day. You simply can’t look past his form, fitness, class and will to win.

If a decent pace ensues up front and Goldencents gets caught up in early battle on the turn and into the stretch, we like Orb to be the rallier that benefits most. Orb is a good horse with a top trainer that has won three in a row including the Florida Derby-G1 going 1 1/8-miles on March 30 in his most recent start.

Orb isn’t flashy. He wins in workmanlike fashion. But his trainer “Shug” McGaughey, knows how to train a good horse and Orb is peaking perfectly for this race. Orb has stamina on both sides of his pedigree and he has been working well at Churchill Downs. He also has a jockey advantage over Goldencents with Joel Rosario in the saddle.

Additionally, McGaughey is not known as a big user of medication on his horses, yet he has already won several Breeders’ Cup races. Both the Breeders’ Cup and the Kentucky Derby have stricter medication rules, and McGaughey has already proven that won’t bother his horses.

The horse that Orb defeated in the Florida Derby, Itsmyluckyday, looks interesting at 15-1 morning line odds. He was making his first start in over two months in that race and he tired in the stretch. He has run some big Beyer Speed Figures this year and although his pedigree is a little weak on the stamina side he could make a run turning for home and thus needs to be included in your exotic wagers.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has five horses in this year’s Derby, more than 20 percent of the field, and he could try to throw a wrench into the pace with one of his five horses to set the race up for another.

Pletcher’s entrants have talent, but they just never seem to do anything out of the ordinary, like win the Kentucky Derby. That being said, he did win the Kentucky Oaks-G1 at Churchill Downs on Friday with 38-1 Princess of Sylmar. He had four horses in the race, including the favorite, and his 38-1 shot won. What does that tell you? Maybe déjà vu in the Derby?

It’s difficult to tell how good Pletcher’s undefeated Verrazano is after his fourth win in a row in the Wood Memorial-G1 going 1 1/8-miles on April 6. In that race he sat just off a longshot who set a slow pace, put that one away and held off ralliers who couldn’t close into the slow pace. He should get a good trip close to the pace, but we have to think that Goldencents will give him a much bigger fight when it counts. And his pedigree says 1 ¼-miles might be a stretch. We’ll use Verrazano, but only in the underneath slots on our exotic wagers.

Pletcher also saddles Revolutionary, who boasts a classy stamina pedigree. He will probably rally from well back, but he gets multiple Derby-winning jockey Calvin Borel, who will probably sit on the rail waiting for room until late in the race when most of the field implodes on itself due to stamina limitations. Listed at 10-1 on the morning line, he has to be used in trifectas and superfectas for both his stamina and Borel.

Overanalyze, another Pletcher trainee, looked good romping to victory in the Arkansas Derby-G1 going 1 1/8-miles on April 13 and could improve in the Derby. He makes his third start off the layoff and gets top jockey Raphael Bejarano. Listed at 15-1, he’ll probably be better odds than that at post time. Value play.

That leaves two Pletcher horses that might be able to go to the lead and mess up likely pacesetters Falling Sky and Goldencents. We’re going to guess that Pletcher sends 20-1 Palace Malice to keep the pace honest. The Bluegrass Stakes-G1 runner up gets blinkers on for the Derby and he does have some stamina in his pedigree. Longshot play for exotics.

Normandy Invasion is the wise guy horse after his strong finish into the slow pace behind Verrazano in the Wood Memorial. Lightly raced, Normandy Invasion makes his third start off the layoff and has the top trainer jockey combination of Brown-Castellano in his favor. Listed at 12-1 on the morning line, watch his odds on Derby Day and use in the exotic wagers accordingly.

Good Luck! Hoping you cash for boxcars in the 2013 Kentucky Derby!

Kentucky Derby Sloppy Track Notes: There is a good chance of rain at Churchill Downs on Saturday. If the track is sloppy, give extra consideration to Revolutionary, Palace Malice, Itsmyluckyday, Vyjack, Normandy Invasion and our main pick, Goldencents.