5-10-13

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Heat at Bulls: What bettors need to know

Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls (7, 187.5)

Best-of-seven series tied 1-1.

Chicago opened the series with a stunning upset and Miami evened it up with a savage beating. Pivotal Game 3 of the best-of-seven Eastern Conference series takes place Friday on the Bulls’ home floor two nights after the Heat inflicted a 115-78 beating on Chicago. Miami was crisp throughout the contest after being visibly rusty in the opening loss. The Bulls will again be without starters Luol Deng (illness) and Kirk Hinrich (calf).

Miami’s last visit to Chicago resulted in a 101-97 loss that snapped its 27-game winning streak. Friday’s contest figures to again be testy after the Game 2 outing that featured nine technical fouls (six on the Bulls) and a flagrant 1 foul on Heat forward Chris Andersen. Miami forward LeBron James says there is no carryover from the convincing win. “It’s just one game,” James said. “You don’t get two wins if you win by over 30 or over 40. You only get one game. They’re back in their home building, where they’re very good and we have to be ready for it.”

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

ABOUT THE HEAT: Backup guards Ray Allen (21 points) and Norris Cole (18) were a combined 12-of-16 shooting in Game 2 as Chicago’s defensive intensity dropped significantly. Cole hit all four of his 3-point attempts and Miami was 9-of-18 from 3-point range while shooting 60 percent overall. The Heat also blistered Chicago in the interior with a 56-18 scoring edge in the paint and forced the Bulls into 19 turnovers. Guard Dwyane Wade is playing with a bruised right knee and the Game 2 blowout allowed him to get additional rest after playing 28 minutes. James is averaging 21.5 points through the first two games.

ABOUT THE BULLS: Deng met with Chicago-area reporters on Thursday’s off-day to detail his scary health ordeal. The All-Star forward said he came down with the flu and got severely ill after undergoing a spinal tap to rule out meningitis. He said that walking was a program and that he experienced piercing headaches and lost 15 pounds due to the illness that forced him to be hospitalized. “I couldn’t control my body really, and because of that I lost a lot of weight,” Deng said. At this point, there is no firm word on whether Deng will regain his strength soon enough to play in the series. Hinrich underwent another MRI exam and it also isn’t clear when he can return.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in Bulls’ last six home games.
* Bulls are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Heat are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games.
* Under is 4-1-1 in Heat’s last six road games.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Game 2 marked the 41st time in NBA playoff history that a game was decided by 35 or more points.

2. Heat C Chris Bosh averaged just 11 points over the first two games.

3. Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau said PG Derrick Rose (knee) won’t play in Game 3 despite another round of speculation that Rose intended to return.

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Playoff payoff: Warriors perfect 8-0 ATS heading into Game 3
By JASON LOGAN

It’s been nearly a month since the Golden State Warriors failed to cover the spread, a span of 11 games that stretches over the final three contests of the regular season and into Friday's Game 3 showdown with the San Antonio Spurs.

The Warriors are a perfect 8-0 ATS in the postseason, coming away a pointspread winner in all six first-round matchups with the Denver Nuggets and covering in the first two games versus San Antonio, losing in double overtime in Game 1 and taking a 100-91 victory as 7.5-point road underdogs in Game 2 Wednesday.

This profitable run is impressive, especially for the Western Conference’s No. 6 seed and a team that finished the season with a 42-39-1 ATS mark - covering in just under 52 percent of its games.

The last time bettors saw a playoff team start this strong ATS, the 2008-09 Denver Nuggets opened the postseason with 12 straight ATS wins before going 1-3 ATS in their final four games and getting eliminated by the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference finals.

The 2000-01 Lakers, led by Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant, were a dominant bet going 12-3 ATS (14-1 SU) en route to their second of three straight NBA titles in the early 2000s. The 1994-95 Houston Rockets also posted a 12-3 ATS postseason mark (11-4 SU), knocking off O’Neal and the Orlando Magic in the finals.

The 2010-11 Dallas Mavericks finished with a 15-4-2 ATS count (16-5 SU) when they shocked the Miami Heat to win the NBA Championship, including a 3-2-1 ATS record in the finals.

The Chicago Bulls went 13-4 ATS (15-2 SU) in the 1990-91 postseason and knocked off Magic Johnson and the Lakers for the first of Michael Jordan’s six NBA Championships.

The most ATS wins in a single playoff run belong to the 2003-04 Detroit Pistons, who finished 16-6-1 ATS (16-7 SU) and beat Los Angeles in five games in the finals, going 4-0-1 ATS in that series.

Golden State’s second-round opponents, the Spurs, are no strangers to profitable postseason runs. San Antonio went 12-5 ATS in 1998-99, 12-8 ATS in 2002-03, 15-8 ATS in 2004-05, and 14-5-1 ATS in 2006-2007. The Spurs are 4-2 ATS this postseason after Game 2.

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NBA series prices: Spurs-Warrors odds level out after split

Bettors get a quick break from NBA playoff action Thursday and oddsmakers have had a chance to adjust their series prices since the start of the second round.

Each of the four series have been split 1-1 after the opening two games, stripping home advantage from the higher-seeded teams. Here’s a look at where each series opened and the adjustments made two games later:

Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls

Opening series prices: Miami -3000, Chicago +1500

Now: Miami (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) -1800, Chicago (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) +1,000

The heavily-favored Heat got caught with their pants down in the series opener, but responded with a 115-78 rout of the Bulls in Game 2.

New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers

Opening series prices: New York -185, Indiana +165

Now: New York (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) -110, Indiana (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) -110

Oddsmakers had trouble setting odds prior to this series and the outcomes of the first two games have resulted in an adjustment to even odds.

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Opening series prices: Memphis -115, OKC -105

Now: Memphis (5-3 SU, 7-1 ATS) -190, OKC (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS) +165

One has to wonder what these odds would have looked like if Russell Westbrook didn’t sustain a major injury in the opening round.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Golden State Warriors

Opening series prices: San Antonio -900, Golden State +650

Now: San Antonio (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) -145, Golden State (5-3 SU, 8-0 ATS) +125

The Spurs were in cruise control before falling by nine to the Warriors in Game 2 at home. But if you still believe in San Antonio, now might be the time to jump in while the juice is low.

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Miami Heads to Chicago Trying to Steal Game 3

Eastern Conference Playoffs Second Round
Game 3 - Series tied 1-1
Tip-off: Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -7.0 Total: 188.5

After a Game 1 loss to the Bulls, the Miami Heat tied the series at 1-1 as the teams now head to Chicago for Game 3 at United Center.

The Miami Heat didn’t take kindly to the negative attention they drew after losing Game 1 at home to Chicago. The Heat turned their game around in Game 2 and completely dominated the Bulls winning 115-78. The Bulls hung around early in the game, but from the second quarter on it was all Heat. Ray Allen led Miami in scoring, coming off the bench to have 21 points in just 19 minutes. No Heat starters played more than 32 minutes in the game, so they will have fresh legs in Game 3. So far in the series both teams have covered in their respective wins making them 1-1 ATS. The Heat are 4-2 ATS to start this postseason while Chicago is just 4-5. The Bulls struggled ATS when playing at home, as they went just 13-28 at United Center. The Heat were 24-17 ATS when playing on the road.

The Miami Heat received a lot of scrutiny after losing a home game to the Bulls without Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich, but all that did was light a fire underneath them. The Heat came out and won Game 2 by 37 points behind 19 points (7-of-12 FG), nine assists, five rebounds and three steals from LeBron James. Dwyane Wade shot the ball a lot better in Game 2 as he scored 15 points (7-of-11 FG) while also dishing out five assists. Norris Cole played 30 minutes in the game and had his best playoff game so far, finishing the game with 18 points (7-of-9 FG, 4-of-4 3PT), six rebounds and two assists. Chris Bosh shot the ball better in Game 2 as well, scoring 13 points (5-of-10 FG) while also grabbing five rebounds and blocking a shot. Bosh is going to need to be more aggressive in the rest of this series. The Bulls are getting a lot of production out of their bigs and the Heat will need their All-Star to shoot more than ten shots.

The Chicago Bulls played excellent in Game 1, stealing a win in Miami, but in Game 2 they didn’t even show up. The Bulls, as a team, shot just 33.5% (27-of-76 FG) in Game 2 and that started in their backcourt. After an excellent Game 1 from the combination of Nate Robinson and Marco Belinelli, the two combined to shoot just 7-of-23 FG in Game 2. The Bulls have relied on Robinson throughout the playoffs, but with LeBron James helping out on him he was having a lot of trouble getting going. Joakim Noah played a solid game for the Bulls, finishing with 12 points (3-of-7 FG) and six rebounds in 32 minutes of play. Carlos Boozer wasn’t aggressive in the game, as he shot the ball just nine times to score eight points (3-of-9) in 24 minutes. Chicago could really use a lift from Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich, who are both questionable to play Friday in Game 3

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The Warriors Host the Spurs in Game 3 Tied 1-1

Western Conference Playoffs Second Round
Game 3 - Series tied 1-1
Tip-off: Friday, 10:30 p.m. ET
Line: Golden State -2.0 Total: 203.5

The Golden State Warriors were able to shake off their Game 1 meltdown as they head back to Oracle Arena Friday with the series tied 1-1.

The Golden State Warriors blew a gigantic lead in the final minutes of Game 1, allowing the Spurs to come back from sixteen down to win in double overtime. In Game 2, the Warriors jumped out on top of the Spurs again but this time they were able to finish them off, going on to win 100-91. So far in this series, the Warriors are 2-0 ATS. Dating back to April 12th, the Warriors have now covered in 11 straight contests. They are a perfect 8-0 ATS so far in the playoffs and now get to head home where they were 23-18 ATS during the regular season. The Spurs, on the other hand, struggled on the road as they went just 20-21 ATS during the regular season. San Antonio is, however, 7-2 SU in their last nine games at Oracle Arena so they are not heading into this game with a lack of confidence.

The San Antonio Spurs had a miraculous comeback in Game 1, outscoring the Warriors 18-2 in the final four minutes to force overtime and eventually win. They were not able to dig themselves out of a hole two games in a row though, and they went on to lose Game 2 by nine points. Tim Duncan played a great game for San Antonio, playing 37 minutes and finishing with 23 points (9-of-20 FG) and nine rebounds. Tony Parker had 20 points (7-of-17 FG) and six rebounds in 40 minutes. Parker struggled with his shot and will need to do a better job of finding his teammates as he had just three assists in the game. San Antonio really needs Manu Ginobili to step up his game. Ginobili got away with a bad shooting performance in Game 1 by hitting a game-winning three pointer, but in Game 2 he was just as bad in a loss. Ginobili had 12 points (5-of-12 FG, 1-of-6 3PT) and four assists in 28 minutes.

The Golden State Warriors have completely taken control of this series early on, with two impressive offensive performances in a row. Despite blowing the lead in Game 1, the Warriors did outplay the Spurs and in Game 2 they did the same but finished the job. Klay Thompson was absolutely uncontainable, finishing the game with 34 points (13-of-26 FG, 8-of-9 3PT) and 14 rebounds while also having three steals. Stephen Curry had 22 points (7-of-20 FG) and four assists while his ability to score the basketball was drawing defenders away from Klay Thompson. Carl Landry provided the Warriors with a huge spark off the bench with 10 points (4-of-5 FG) and eight rebounds in just 14 minutes. Harrison Barnes also played a good game for the Warriors with 13 points (5-of-14 FG), and he hit timely shots when the Warriors needed him. Barnes was, however, 0-of-5 3PT on the evening.

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Friday's NHL East playoff betting preview

Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins (-205, 5.5)

Bruins lead best-of-seven series 3-1.

With 10 points in four games, David Krejci has the Boston Bruins on the cusp of qualifying for the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. The fourth-seeded Bruins can finish their Eastern Conference first-round series on Friday when they host the fifth-seeded Toronto Maple Leafs for Game 5. Boston holds a 3-1 advantage in the series after denying Toronto in two chances to win its first home playoff contest in nine years, defeating the Maple Leafs 5-2 in Game 3 and 4-3 in overtime on Wednesday. Krejci recorded his second career playoff hat trick in Game 4, capping it with the overtime winner for his third three-point effort in the series.

Toronto outshot the Bruins in both games at Air Canada Centre after stealing Game 2 in Boston 4-2, but could not translate that momentum into a home victory. The Maple Leafs power play, which had scored in each of the first three contests, went silent in Game 4, finishing 0-for-4. Toronto’s penalty kill, which was 8-for-9 before Wednesday, allowed two goals on five opportunities in the overtime loss. James Reimer cannot be blamed for the Maple Leafs’ losses, but the netminder has allowed four goals in each of the team’s three losses. Bruins goaltender Tuukka Rask made 45 saves in each of the last two games, looking much more confident after struggling in Game 2.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, CBC, RDS, NHL Network (U.S.), NESN

ABOUT THE MAPLE LEAFS: Defenseman Mark Fraser, who left Wednesday’s game after blocking a Milan Lucic slap shot with his face in overtime, underwent surgery to repair a broken bone on Thursday and is resting at home. “[Fraser]’s done a great job all year for us physically, playing big minutes,” Toronto captain Dion Phaneuf told reporters, “he’s just a great teammate. It was a scary situation but we’re glad he’s doing OK.” Blue-liner John-Michael Liles, a healthy scratch since Game 1, will likely take Fraser’s spot in the lineup. After a frustrating regular season, defenseman Jake Gardiner is flourishing in the playoffs with four points in three games. Gardiner played 12 games during the season and registered just four assists, but he has a point in each postseason game he’s played. Gardiner is tied with Joffrey Lupul for the team scoring lead.

ABOUT THE BRUINS: Krejci’s scoring line with Nathan Horton and Milan Lucic has been Boston’s primary offensive weapon throughout the series. Horton (three goals, three assists) and Lucic (six assists) are tied for second in team scoring behind Krejci. Captain Zdeno Chara had a breakout game offensively on Wednesday, assisting on all four goals to vault into fourth on the team with five points. No other Bruins player has more than two. Despite firing a team-high 18 shots, Tyler Seguin has yet to record a point in the series. Patrice Bergeron, second on the team with 16 shots, scored on a power play in Game 4 for his first tally since March 27. Defenseman Johnny Boychuk leads the team with 20 hits and 18 blocked shots, while also contributing two goals after only scoring once in 44 regular-season contests. Both of Boychuk’s goals were in Boston.

TRENDS:

* Over is 3-0-1 in Maple Leafs’ last four overall.
* Over is 4-0-1 in Bruins’ last five overall.
* Maple Leafs are 1-6 in the last seven meetings in Boston.
* Over is 6-1 in Maple Leafs’ last seven Friday games.

OVERTIME

1. Toronto is 2-12-1 in its last 15 games in Boston.

2. Krejci, who led the Bruins with 23 points during their 2011 Stanley Cup championship run, has 57 points in 63 career playoff games.

3. Maple Leafs LW Clarke MacArthur scored his first career playoff goal on Wednesday after being a healthy scratch for Games 2 and 3.

New York Rangers at Washington Capitals (-134, 5)

Best-of-seven series tied 2-2.

The New York Rangers and Washington Capitals have held serve at home over the first four games of their Eastern Conference first-round series. After dropping a pair of contests at Madison Square Garden, Washington will look to regain the advantage when the teams reconvene for Game 5 at the Verizon Center on Friday. Defenseman Dan Girardi scored on the power play to snap a tie 59 seconds into the third period and Carl Hagelin collected a goal and two assists in New York's 4-3 victory on Wednesday.

Returning to the nation's capital means that Washington will gain the advantage of having the last change - meaning coach Adam Oates can shuffle superstar Alex Ovechkin on the ice for favorable matchups. The three-time Maurice Richard winner has been limited to just three shots and held off the scoresheet in the last two games. By comparison, Ovechkin registered 12 in the first two contests - scoring a power-play goal in Game 1 and setting up defenseman Mike Green's overtime winner in Game 2.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC Sports, TSN, RDS2

ABOUT THE RANGERS: Rick Nash came to Broadway hoping to make his mark in the postseason. Through four games, the top-line forward has a team-leading 17 shots and an assist on Derek Stepan's winning goal in Game 3 to show for his efforts. "It'll come," Nash said optimistically. Coach John Tortorella said he wasn't worried when asked about Nash. "Not at all. He's not built that way," Tortorella said. "... It hasn't gone for him, but there's no chance that will happen with him (getting down on himself). In the short time I've been with him, I just can't see that ever happening. He's too much of a pro."

ABOUT THE CAPITALS: Ovechkin, who netted a league-best 32 goals, joined Pittsburgh Penguins superstar Sidney Crosby and Tampa Bay Lightning stud Martin St. Louis as finalists for the Ted Lindsay Award. The honor is presented to the most outstanding player in the NHL as voted by fellow members of the NHL Players' Association. Braden Holby will relish his return to Washington. The netminder stopped 59 of 60 shots in winning the first two games before yielding four goals in both contests in New York.

TRENDS:

* Capitals are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.
* Under is 4-0 in Capitals’ last four home games.
* Under is 8-2-7 in the last 17 meetings.
* Rangers are 1-4 in the last five meetings in Washington.

OVERTIME

1. Washington RW Martin Erat has been ruled out of Friday's tilt with an upper-body injury. The team recalled RWs Joey Crabb and 2012 first-round pick Tom
Wilson from Hershey of the American Hockey League on Thursday.

2. After going 0-for-7 on the power play in Games 1 and 2, New York has scored with the man advantage in each of the last two contests.

3. Washington owns a less-than-stellar 10-20 mark in Game 5 of a postseason series.

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Friday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Here are two streaking and two slumping pitchers probable to take the hill Friday.

Streaking

Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariners (3-1, 1.61 ERA)

Iwakuma held the Blue Jays to just one run over seven innings last time out. The righty has an impressive 42:8 K:BB ratio and is settling into the No 2 starter role behind Felix Hernandez. Iwakuma will take the hill against Oakland for the second time this season Friday. He held the A’s to just one run in six innings of work earlier in April.

Phil Hughes, New York Yankees (1-3, 3.60 ERA)

Hughes has allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last four outings after a rocky start to the 2013 campaign. The righty has sat down a total of 30 batters over his last four trips to the hill and is coming off an eight-inning gem against the A's.

Slumping

Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks (1-3, 5.19 ERA)

The Diamondbacks’ ace has struggled early in 2013 and has been touched up for nine runs over his past two starts. The righty hasn’t notched a win since Opening Day over the St. Louis Cardinals but has an impressive 2.42 career ERA vs. the Phillies.

Shaun Marcum, New York Mets (0-2, 7.20 ERA)

Marcum has made two starts and one relief appearance since coming off the DL April 27th, and hasn’t looked sharp in any of them. The right-hander hasn’t pitched more than 4 1/3 innings in any of his outings this season and is working on expanding his current 90-pitch count.

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ROT# 718 - 8:05pm - Chicago +7.5 (-118) *bought HALF point*
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ROT# 719 - 10:35pm - San Antonio +3 (-118) *bought HALF point*
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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the A’s Thursday.

Friday it’s the Heat. The deficit is 513 sirignanos.

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DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

05/10/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 837-396 (.679)
ATS: 663-601 (.525)
ATS Vary Units: 1656-1544 (.518)
Over/Under: 650-614 (.514)
Over/Under Vary Units: 891-816 (.522)

Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game #3
Miami 96, CHICAGO 92

Western Conference Semifinals
Game #3
GOLDEN STATE 106, San Antonio 104

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Hockey Crusher
Washington Capitals -137 over NY Rangers
(System Record: 59-3, lost last game)
Overall Record: 59-43-3

Basketball Crusher
Chicago Bulls +7 over Miami Heat
(System Record: 100-4, lost last game)
Overall Record: 100-76-4

Baseball Crusher
Baltimore Orioles -117 over Minnesota Twins
(System Record: 17-3, lost last game)
Overall Record: 17-24

Soccer Crusher
Belgrano + Atletico Rafaela UNDER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(SystemRecord: 394-15, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 394-343-49

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DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

05/10/13 Predictions

Season: 299-188 (.614)

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
Game #5
WASHINGTON 3, N.Y. Rangers 2
BOSTON 3, Toronto 2

Western Conference Quarterfinals
Game #6
DETROIT 3, Anaheim 2
St. Louis vs. LOS ANGELES: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1026-767 (57 + %) over the last 4 1/2 years !

Free winner FRI Bulls + 7 1/2

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Friday

Brewers/Reds over 7.5