5-11-13

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Today's MLB Picks

Atlanta at San Francisco

The Braves look to take advantage of a San Francisco team that is 0-6 in Madison Bumgarner's last 6 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Atlanta is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Braves favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+115). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, MAY 11 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Pittsburgh at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Liriano) 15.174; NY Mets (Niese) 13.697 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: NY Mets (-125); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105); Over

Game 903-904: Colorado at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chacin) 14.673; St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.673 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 6 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 7 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-170); Under

Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at Washington (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Jackson) 15.058; Washington (Strasburg) 16.938 Dunkel Line: Washington by 2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: Washington (-210); 7 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-210); Under

Game 907-908: Atlanta at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Maholm) 16.275; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 15.252 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-135); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+115); Over

Game 909-910: Milwaukee at Cincinnati (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Burgos) 14.244; Cincinnati (Latos) 15.544 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-185); 8 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-185); Under

Game 911-912: Philadelphia at Arizona (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lee) 16.225; Arizona (Cahill) 15.024 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: Arizona (-110); 8 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-110); Over

Game 913-914: Miami at LA Dodgers (9:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Slowey) 15.582; LA Dodgers (Ryu) 14.339 Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-185); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Miami (+165); Over

Game 915-916: Toronto at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Buehrle) 14.051; Boston (Buchholz) 15.645 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Boston (-210); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-210); Under

Game 917-918: Cleveland at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Jimenez) 16.029; Detroit (Verlander) 17.294 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Detroit (-220); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-220); Under

Game 919-920: Baltimore at Minnesota (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Johnson) 15.624; Minnesota (Worley) 16.553 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: Baltimore (-120); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100); Over

Game 921-922: NY Yankees at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 16.044; Kansas City (Shields) 14.981 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-150); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+130); Over

Game 923-924: Texas at Houston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Darvish) 15.015; Houston (Bedard) 12.959 Dunkel Line: Texas by 2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: Texas (-260); 8 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-260); Under

Game 925-926: LA Angels at Chicago White Sox (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Williams) 13.895; White Sox (Quintana) 14.432 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-120); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-120); Under

Game 927-928: Oakland at Seattle (9:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Parker) 14.974; Seattle (Maurer) 14.221 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: Seattle (-115); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-105); Over

Game 929-930: San Diego at Tampa Bay (6:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Smith) 15.550; Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 17.248 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-165); 8 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-165); Over

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Cappers Access

Grizzlies -5
Knicks +4
Nationals(RL) -1.5(+108)

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Hondo

WHITE SOX

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Joe Wiz

Free Play Saturday Oakland/Seattle Over 7

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Saturday

Red Sox -1.5 +101

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JACK JONES

MLB Baseball Premium Picks

MLB | May 11 '13 (1:10p) Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets	New York Mets -109 at 5dimes
15* MLB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on New York Mets -109 The New York Mets are showing solid value as a small home favorite over the Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday. They have a huge edge on the mound in this one, but that's not being reflected in this line like it should be. Jon Niese has been at his best at home this season for New York, going 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA in four home starts. Also, Niese is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in three career starts against Pittsburgh, and his teams are 3-0 in those games having never lost. Francisco Liriano makes his season debut for the Pirates today, and he is simply getting way too much respect from oddsmakers. In his last two seasons, Liriano has gone 9-10 with a 5.09 ERA in 2011, and 6-12 with a 5.34 ERA in 2012. He's clearly washed up. Niese is 12-2 (+11.9 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday in his career. His teams are winning 6.2 to 2.4 on average in this spot. The Pirates are 0-4 in their last 4 games as an underdog. The Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter. New York is 4-0 in Niese's last 4 starts as a favorite. Roll with the Mets Saturday.

MLB | May 11 '13 (1:35p) Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox -1½+100 at 5dimes
15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+100) Clay Buchholz is out to send a message to Toronto Saturday. It was Blue Jays broadcaster Jack Morris last week that accused Buchholz of throwing a spitball, which certainly hurt the pitcher's reputation. That came after Buchholz pitched 7 shutout innings of a 10-1 victory over Mark Buehrle and the Blue Jays. That dominant start was nothing new for the right-hander, who has simply been mowing down the competition this season. Buchholz is 6-0 with a 1.60 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in seven starts this season. The Red Sox are 7-0 in those games, winning five by 2 runs or more. Buchholz improved to 9-4 with a 2.36 ERA and 1.127 WHIP in 15 career starts against the Blue Jays. Mark Buehrle is simply washed up and stands no chance of keeping Toronto competitive in this one. The left-hander is 1-2 with a 7.03 ERA and 1.561 WHIP in seven starts this season. Buehrle is 7-9 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.454 WHIP in 20 career starts against Boston. Boston is 13-2 (+11.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. It is winning by 2.8 runs/game in this spot. Buchholz is 18-3 (+13.1 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Boston is winning by 2.6 runs/game in this situation. Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Saturday.

MLB | May 11 '13 (7:05p) Cleveland Indians vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers -1½-104 at 5dimes
15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-104) The Detroit Tigers will have no problem winning by two-plus runs Saturday given the edge they have on the mound in this one. I fully expect you to be counting your chips by the end of the 5th inning ladies and gents. Detroit gives the ball to 2011 AL Cy Young & AL MVP winner, Justin Verlander Saturday. The right-hander continues to be arguably the best starter in the league this season, going 4-2 with a 1.55 ERA and 1.101 WHIP through seven starts, including 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in his last three. Ubaldo Jimenez has been atrocious once again in 2012 as he continues to prove that he was one of the worst trades in Cleveland history. The right-hander is 2-2 with a 6.37 ERA and 1.314 WHIP through six starts this season for the Indians. Jimenez is 4-7 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Tigers. In his last two starts at Detroit, Jimenez has given up 10 earned runs over 12 2/3 innings in 1-7 and 1-6 losses, respectively. Verlander is a perfect 13-0 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are winning in this spot 4.8 to 1.7, or by an average of 3.1 runs/game. Bet Detroit on the Run Line Saturday.

MLB | May 11 '13 (8:10p) Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Philadelphia Phillies -101 at 5dimes
15* MLB Saturday Mound Mismatch on Philadelphia Phillies -101 The Philadelphia Phillies have a big edge on the mound tonight over the Arizona Diamondbacks, and they should not be an underdog as a result. After losing the first two games of this series, and three straight overall by exactly one run each, the Phillies will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. I look for them to bounce back with a win behind ace Cliff Lee. The left-hander has been dominant this season, going 3-2 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in seven starts, including 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA and 0.828 WHIP in four road starts. Trevor Cahill is off to a fast start to the season for Arizona, but he's being overvalued as a result. There's no question in my mind that we'll be backing the better starter in Lee, who is 3-1 with a 3.50 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in five career starts against Arizona. The Phillies are 17-4 in Lees last 21 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Philadelphia is 4-0 in Lee's last 4 starts as an underdog. The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in Cahill's last 5 starts vs. National League East. Take the Phillies Saturday.

MLB | May 11 '13 (9:10p) Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Miami Marlins +175 at SIA

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +175 Can you believe that the Miami Marlins have the edge on the mound Saturday, yet they are nearly a 2-to-1 dog to the Los Angeles Dodgers? What's more, the Dodgers have lost eight straight coming into this one, yet they are getting this much respect from oddsmakers. I'll gladly gobble up this value and back the Marlins at an excellent price. Kevin Slowey is arguably the single-most underrated starter in the league to this point, going 1-2 with a 1.81 ERA and 0.940 WHIP in seven starts. He's 1-1 with a 0.98 ERA and 0.873 WHIP in three road starts as well. Hyun-Jin Ryu has been solid for Los Angeles, but his numbers pale in comparison to Slowey's. Ryu is 3-2 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.214 WHIP in seven starts this season for the Dodgers. Los Angeles is 0-8 in May games this season. Miami is 25-14 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in road games in May games over the last 3 seasons. The Dodgers are 0-7 (-11.4 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities this season. Roll with the Marlins Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hockey Crusher
NY Islanders +153 over Pittsburgh Penguins
(System Record: 60-3, won last game)
Overall Record: 60-43-3

Basketball Crusher
Memphis Grizzlies -5 over OKC
(System Record: 100-4, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 100-77-4

Baseball Crusher
San Diego Padres + Tampa Bay Rays OVER 8
(System Record: 18-3, won last game)
Overall Record: 18-24

Soccer Crusher
Racing Club + Tigre UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Argentina
(SystemRecord: 395-15, won last game)
Overall Record: 395-343-49

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Paul Leiner

100* Thunder / Grizzlies Over 186.5

50* Phillies -110

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ACCUSCORE PREMIUM SOCCER

Written by Shahan Ahmed


Chelsea vs Aston Villa at Villa Park

At this point in the season, we decided to revisit our value picks series for this weekend’s soccer picks. Due to popular demand, we’ve asked our Director of European Football, Mr. Ahmed, to take a look at the upcoming fixtures in England, Spain, Italy, and Germany.

Upon reviewing the odds, he decided to offer a pick for all members and non-members out of the English Premier League

1. Chelsea to win at 1.847
Okay, so a 100 unit wager only returns a profit of 84.7 units, but this is a simulation analysis special. Chelsea is 65.9 percent to win the game at Villa Park. Fernando Torres started in midweek, so Demba Ba is likely to return. Also, Lampard was rested against Spurs, so he should be in the starting eleven. When Lampard starts, Lampard usually scores—from the spot or otherwise.

Also, John Terry has been sitting the past couple matches, so the captain is probably due for a run in the park. The computer says Chelsea has value up until 1.518, and the line has already moved since starting at 1.962. Hazard is questionable, but Mata and Oscar should combine with Moses to form an attacking trident behind Ba.

With the Blues looking to wrap up a Champions League top four finish, motivation is on the menu against the Villains. Villa is coming off back-to-back wins, but Norwich and Sunderland are nowhere near the caliber of Chelsea.

Villa may appear safe from the drop, but that little bit of cushion may lead to complacency.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB CLEVELAND at DETROIT

Play Against - Road teams (CLEVELAND) average hitting team (AVG =.265 to .279) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.50) -AL, starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings
47-22 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.1% 25.9 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% 0.5 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB BALTIMORE at MINNESOTA

BALTIMORE is 117-86 (+45.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.4) , OPPONENT (4.3)

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NBA OKLAHOMA CITY at MEMPHIS

Play Against - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a home loss
132-74 over the last 5 seasons. ( 64.1% 50.6 units )
20-13 this year. ( 60.6% 5.7 units )

NBA NEW YORK at INDIANA

Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (INDIANA) attempting 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season, on Saturday games
345-118 over the last 5 seasons. ( 74.5% 100.8 units )
98-37 this year. ( 72.6% 19.6 units )

NBA NEW YORK at INDIANA

Play Under - Any team vs. the 1rst half line in a playoff series which is tied, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%)
118-64 since 1997. ( 64.8% 47.6 units )
0-2 this year. ( 0.0% -2.2 units )

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Seattle Consultants

15 Unit - Kansas City Royals -145

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HANDICAPPING KINGS

JIMMY

BASEBALL

(KINGS RANSOM-2 UNITS)- BALTIMORE -108 MINNESOTA (7PM)

NY METS -111 PITTSBURGH (1PM)

PHILADELPHIA/ARIZONA - UNDER 8 -120 (8PM)

NBA

OKLAHOMA CITY/MEMPHIS - OVER 186.5 (5PM)

PERRY (SOCCER PLAYS)

Borussia Monchengladbach (GER-1) vs Mainz 05 (GER-1) - UNDER 2.5 -102 (930AM)

Freiburg (GER-1) vs Greuther Furth (GER-1) . UNDER 2.5 +114 (930AM)

Deportivo La Coruna (ESP-P) vs Valladolid (ESP-P) - OVER 2.5 -103 (12PM)

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John Ryan 25* Titan Total

Phillies/DBacks Over

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CHASE DIAMOND

8* KILLER CLUB

Pittsburgh vs. NY Islanders
Total: -116/+6 Under