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726 SAN (-115) Hilton vs 725 GSWAnalysis:
Golden State outplayed San Antonio in splitting the first two games of this series in San Antonio. But the Warriors lost their confidence and momentum when they dropped Game 3 at home this past Friday night.
The Spurs are an extremely well-coached, savvy, experienced team that has won championships before with their players and has a legitimate shot to do it again this season. The Warriors are in uncharted waters. They last made the playoffs in 2007.
The NBA isn't like baseball or football. Dues have to be paid. Teams don't just jump two tiers into the champioƒnship series.
The Warriors would have a hard enough time beating the Spurs if Stephen Curry were 100 percent, but he's far from that. Curry could barely walk during Friday's game because of an ankle injury. He's not going to be anywhere close to 100 percent today. He's not helped either by the short turnaround since this game starts at 12:30 p.m. local time.
The Spurs outshot the Warriors, 50.6 percent to 39.3 percent from the field, in Game 3 by limiting Curry and Klay Thompson to a combined 12-for-37 shooting from the floor. The Spurs smell the kill just like they did in sweeping the Lakers, who were without Kobe Bryant.
You can't trust wild man Wily Peralta of the Brewers. He has a winning record on the season, but he has a bloated 5.54 ERA, and he's getting worse with a 6.06 ERA his last three starts. Milwaukee is a bad road team (5-8), and the Brewers are 15-36 in their last 51 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Milwaukee is on a 1-8 run while the Reds have won six of eight. Starter Bronson Arroyo doesn't walk anyone (seven in 46 innings), which is a must in a hitter friendly park like this. The Reds are 15-5 in their last 20 home games and 12-4 as a favorite. Also, the Brewers are 7-22 in the last 29 meetings in Cincinnati. Play the Reds.
We will have 4 Plays this year that fit into this NBA Postseason System. Play the Round #2 team that trails the Series 2-1. The last 10 yeas these teams are 20-5 SU+ATS. The first Play is GSW.
In MLB today I am on MIL +145 ..... WAS -160 ..... DET -140 ..... TOR +200 ..... MIN +100
Dr. Bob
Sunday NBA
San Antonio (-1) at GOLDEN STATE The Under looks like a pretty good play again but not quite Best Bet status this time. My math model projects 200 total points but I get 192 ½ total points using the pace of the first 3 games (at expected offensive efficiencies). I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 200 points or higher and I’ll lean under at less than 200 points.
Golden State was in a horrible situation for game 3 and lost as expected, but the Warriors apply to a 9-0 ATS game 4 situation. My ratings favor San Antonio by ½ a point and Warriors’ star Stephen Curry is listed as probable with his sprained ankle. I’d lean with Golden State at -1 or better.
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