5-13-13

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PAUL LEINER

100* Angels -130

50* Thunder +4.5

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Stephen Nover | NBA Sides - Monday, May 13 2013 9:35PM
730 MEM -4.5(-110) Hilton vs 729 OKL triple-dime bet

Analysis:Memphis surprisingly played terrible in Game 3, its first home game in this series against Oklahoma City. The Grizzlies shot only 40 percent from the floor and were even uncharacteristically outrebounded with the Thunder grabbing seven more rebounds and outscoring Memphis, 44-30, in the paint.
Yet the Grizzlies still won by six points, covering the spread. This is not a good omen for the Thunder, who are dazed and confused.
The Grizzlies had the best defense in the NBA during the regular season holding foes to 89 points a game. Their defense is telling the story in this series, taking full advantage of the Thunder missing Russell Westbrook. The Grizzlies are throwing defenses at the Thunder they haven't seen all season and can't adjust to without Westbrook.
Durant is getting his points, but the rest of the Thunder are coming up short shooting a combined 62-for-172 (36 percent) from the floor. Durant took 26 shots in Game 1. In Game 2, he had 21 attempts and then 19 in Game 3. Part of his decrease in shots is passing off to teammates, who aren't converting. The Grizzlies limited Durant to only ¶ two points in the fourth quarter of Game 3.
Westbrook commanded double teams as much as Durant. The Grizzlies have the defenders to take advantage of Westbrook's absence unlike the Rockets. The Thunder averaged nearly 106 points during the regular season. They matched that in dispatching defensively-challenged Houston in their first-round series.
But the Grizzlies have tenacious defenders. The Thunder aren't getting the wide-open looks beyond the arc they used to get. The Grizzlies have held the Thunder to 89 points a game, nearly 17 points fewer per game than what they averaged during the season. I don't see the Thunder being able to properly adjust either. They are 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing on one day rest.
Oklahoma City's task is made more difficult playing this Game 4 at FedEx Forum. Memphis has won 18 of its last 19 home games there. The Grizzlies are averaging better than 100 points at home during the playoffs. They have covered the past eight times when facing a foe with a winning record.
Look for the Grizzlies to win this one by far more than six points.


Stephen Nover MLB ML - Monday, May 13 2013 10:10PM

ML 909 WAS -125 vs 910 LOS - double-dime bet

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Ats hockey lock club

4 units rangers/capitals under 5

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JOE GAVAZZI

MLB

Texas (Grimm) at Oakland (Griffin) (-125) 10:05 PM ET

5* Texas (Grimm) (+115)
In this game tonight, we play the team with the best record in Major League Baseball on a 4 game winning streak with revenge for last year. Last September, Oakland played great baseball down the stretch then swept the Rangers on this field 3-0 by a score of 19-9 to win the Division. It sent the Rangers to a Wildcard Playoff game which they lost to Baltimore. Now Texas catches Oakland in a funk. Following a 12-4 start including sweeps of Houston and LAA, Oakland has now gone 7-16. That includes returning home from a 3-7 road trip where they lost 6/7 recent games. In a game where the starters are evenly matched, a dominant edge to the Texas bullpen with an index of 170-139 may prove to be the difference for the more highly motivated visitor.

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STRIKE POINT SPORTS

7-Unit MLB Game of the Year!

Washington Nationals-130

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DHayes

1* LA Angels -130

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Jimmy Boyd

5* Pittsburgh Pirates ML -148

4* Astros/Tigers - UNDER 8.5
4* Washington Nationals ML -124
4* Thunder/Grizzlies - UNDER 184.5

3* Chicago Cubs ML -125
3* Kansas City Royals ML +123

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ROBERT FERRINGO NHL

3* Washington -130

1* Washington -1.5 at +250

2* Over 5 - Toronto / Boston

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Bryan Leonard MLB Money Line Mon, 05/13/13 - 8:10 PM

double-dime bet - 914 MIN (+108) vs 913 CWS

Analysis: CHICAGO WHITE SOX @ MINNESOTA
A couple of lefties face off in the series opener on Monday night as Hector Santiago goes for the White Sox and Pedro Hernandez for the Twins. The White Sox have been atrocious against left handed pitching this season, striking out in over 27 percent of their plate appearances and have exacerbated that weakness by walking just 5.8 percent of the time, the third-worst mark in baseball. The White Sox have never seen Hernandez and it's historically a +EV play to take a left hander in his first start against a team. The White Sox are just 1-5 in games started by a lefty this season and the Twins are one of the best moneyline teams so far this season at nearly +7 units.

Both Santiago and Hernandez have bounced back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation this season, but that actually favors Hernandez in this start. The Twins are one of the more pesky lineups in baseball, with a lot of slap hitters and guys who put up good at bats. The Twins rank fourth in percentage of plate appearances ending in a walk while the White Sox are dead last. Santiago will have to throw a lot of pitches while Hernandez will be able to use the White Sox aggressiveness to his advantage, especially because they have never seen him.

The Twins are the better team right now and the White Sox are really awful against left handed pitching. Getting the Twins as a home dog here with a lefty that the White Sox have never seen makes for a good value play.

PLAY: MINNESOTA

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TEAM DOC SPORTS

4-unit Play Take #902 Pittsburgh Pirates (-150) over Milwaukee Brewers (7:05pm ET) The Pittsburgh Pirates are quickly establishing themselves as one of the better teams in baseball. They just swept the Mets to make it 19-10 in their last 29 games and they're inching closer to the Cardinals in the National League Central race. I like this Pirates team as they play baseball the right way and win games the way that you should - with a solid starting rotation, timely hitting and a lockdown bullpen. Pirates ace A.J. Burnett takes the ball today and he's been one of the best pitchers in the league thus far in 2013. He has a 2.57 ERA and 1.08 WHIP to go along with an amazing strikeout rate of 12.1 batters per nine innings. Simply put, he's been dominant in nearly every start. The Milwaukee Brewers come to town for this one and they are a free swinging bunch. That should help Burnett as he encourages lots of swings and misses. Marco Estrada will be tasked with slowing down the Pirates today. The right-hander has been up and down in 2013 and finds himself with a 6.05 ERA and 1.50 WHIP on May 13. He has better stuff than that, but his biggest problem has been giving up the home run ball. That doesn't bode well for him because the Pirates are near the top of the National League in homers. The Pirates have been a much better team at home over the last few seasons and I like their chances today with one of the best pitchers in the majors on the mound.

3-unit Play Take #913 Chicago White Sox (-115) over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm ET) It's been a really tough year for the Chicago White Sox so far. They are currently in last place in the American League Central and there's isn't much optimism on the South Side of Chicago. The Sox are last in the American League in runs scored and it appears that age is catching up with this squad in a hurry. However, they do have some bright spots on their team and one of them is today's starter Hector Santiago. The scrappy right-hander was moved into the rotation from the bullpen to take over for Gavin Floyd and he's impressed. He's only allowed one run in two starts and both of them were on the road. His K/BB ratio in those games was 14-4 and he looked very comfortable despite the fact that he only has six career starts. Today he'll pitch on the road again versus the Minnesota Twins. Minnesota has played better than expectations this season, but they go to war with a guy that's really been struggling of late. Left-hander Pedro Hernandez comes in with a 5.96 ERA and 1.68 WHIP and has a terrible K/BB ratio. He also has problems keeping the ball down and has yielded more than his fair share of home runs. He's the kind of guy that a weak White Sox lineup will gladly welcome. With the huge edge in the starting pitching department today, I like Chicago as a small road favorite.

Please note that the following play is for Game 2 of the Doubleheader

3-unit Play for Game #2 of the Doubleheader Take #921 New York Yankees (+115) over Cleveland Indians (3:05pm ET) The New York Yankees and Cleveland Indians play two today and we like the pitching matchup for the second game. It's always hard to project what the lineups will be in the second game of a doubleheader, but the advantage for the Yankees on the mound appears big enough to warrant a play. Left-hander Vidal Nuno of the Yankees was recently brought up and this will be the first start of his major league career. He dominated the competition in the minor leagues at just about every stop he has made. In his four starts at Triple-A this season, Nuno went 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA and a strikeout rate of 10.0 batters per nine innings and only 0.80 walks per nine innings. It's tough to project how certain players will translate into the majors, but it's always good to catch a guy who is pitching in a nice groove when he is promoted. On the side is Indians youngster Trevor Bauer. He's spent most of his season in the minor leagues as well, but the results haven't been as good. Bauer has also made a couple of starts in the big leagues in 2013 and neither of them were very good outings. He walked a total of 13 batters in 10 innings of work while only striking out seven. He also wasn't able to pitch past the fifth inning in either start and that will be big today as the bullpens may get overworked in the doubleheader. The Yankees are the play here in the second game.

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Todays Bet Bets

(5 UNITS) Bulls +7.5
(5 UNITS) Thunder +4.5
(5 UNITS) Nationals

(3 UNITS) Twins
(3 UNITS) D-Backs
(3 UNITS)Tex/Oak - UNDER 8

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Handicapping Kings

jimmy

baseball

kansas city/laa - under 9 -120 (10pm)

nba

chicago +7.5 miami ( 7pm)

nhl

nyr/washington - under 5-130 (8pm)

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Kyle Hunter

3* Nationals

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Scott Spreitzer MLB Money Line Mon, 05/13/13 - 10:05 PM

triple-dime bet - 918 OAK (-125) vs 917 TEX
Analysis: I'm backing the Oakland A's as they return home on Monday night. The A's have slipped a bit after their strong start to the season, but they just finished a long road trip and will be glad to be home for the first time since May 1. Some teams struggle in this spot, but not the A's. Oakland is actually on a 13-3 run following a road trip of at least seven days. They have a big advantage on the mound tonight with Griffin over Grimm. And the Oakland hurler will face a Texas lineup that has plated only 3.5 rpg in road night games against righties since the start of the 2012 season! In fact, Oakland averages a full run more per game in home nights games against righties than Texas does in the aforementioned spot. Oakland enters on a 37-14 run against right-handed pitching and they're on a 7-0 run when Griffin starts against AL West opponents. The A's take care of business as a home favorite up to -150, going 43-19, while the Rangers are on a 6-18 slide as a dog up to +150. I'm laying the short price with the Oakland A's as they look to extend their run to 5-0 at home against Texas. The A's are the play on Monday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

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Hoopsgooroo

Game 1 Indians -137 @ 12:35p
Game 2 Yanks +106