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Matt Fargo 10* MLB Sweet Spot
Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
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Stephen Nover | NBA Sides - Monday, May 13 2013 9:35PM
730 MEM -4.5(-110) Hilton vs 729 OKL triple-dime bet
Analysis:Memphis surprisingly played terrible in Game 3, its first home game in this series against Oklahoma City. The Grizzlies shot only 40 percent from the floor and were even uncharacteristically outrebounded with the Thunder grabbing seven more rebounds and outscoring Memphis, 44-30, in the paint.
Yet the Grizzlies still won by six points, covering the spread. This is not a good omen for the Thunder, who are dazed and confused.
The Grizzlies had the best defense in the NBA during the regular season holding foes to 89 points a game. Their defense is telling the story in this series, taking full advantage of the Thunder missing Russell Westbrook. The Grizzlies are throwing defenses at the Thunder they haven't seen all season and can't adjust to without Westbrook.
Durant is getting his points, but the rest of the Thunder are coming up short shooting a combined 62-for-172 (36 percent) from the floor. Durant took 26 shots in Game 1. In Game 2, he had 21 attempts and then 19 in Game 3. Part of his decrease in shots is passing off to teammates, who aren't converting. The Grizzlies limited Durant to only ΒΆ two points in the fourth quarter of Game 3.
Westbrook commanded double teams as much as Durant. The Grizzlies have the defenders to take advantage of Westbrook's absence unlike the Rockets. The Thunder averaged nearly 106 points during the regular season. They matched that in dispatching defensively-challenged Houston in their first-round series.
But the Grizzlies have tenacious defenders. The Thunder aren't getting the wide-open looks beyond the arc they used to get. The Grizzlies have held the Thunder to 89 points a game, nearly 17 points fewer per game than what they averaged during the season. I don't see the Thunder being able to properly adjust either. They are 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing on one day rest.
Oklahoma City's task is made more difficult playing this Game 4 at FedEx Forum. Memphis has won 18 of its last 19 home games there. The Grizzlies are averaging better than 100 points at home during the playoffs. They have covered the past eight times when facing a foe with a winning record.
Look for the Grizzlies to win this one by far more than six points.
Stephen Nover | MLB ML - Monday, May 13 2013 10:10PM
ML 909 WAS (-125) bodog vs 910 LOS double-dime bet
Analysis:Maybe the Dodgers can get things turned around. But right now there's a huge difference in these two teams and these two starting pitchers.
Washington is one of the best teams in the National League. Los Angeles is one of the worst. The Dodgers are stepping way up in class after hosting the Marlins. The Dodgers' middle infield is composed of reserves, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez isn't 100 percent and Matt Kemp has one home run. The Dodgers also have bullpen problems with closer Brandon League in danger of losing his job.
Not only are the Nationals a superior team, but they have a huge pitching edge going - both starting and bullpen. Jordan Zimmerman is bidding to become the majors' first seven-game winner and he deserves it. He has a 1.59 ERA and has been pitching great allowing only one run in his last three starts, while yielding just 10 hits and three walks in 24 innings during this span.
Zimmerman, not Stephen Strasburg nor Gio Gonzalez, is the ace of Washington's staff.
The Dodgers, on the other hand, are going with disappointing, over-the-hill Josh Beckett. He has a 5.13 ERA. Los Angeles is 1-6 in his starts this season.
The Nationals are flying cross-country after hosing the Cubs on Sunday. But jet lag usually doesn't bother baseball teams until the second day.
Monday Free Pick
Rockies plus $1.10 at CubsComment
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Wunderdog nhl
1.5* ny rangers ML +115Comment
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King Creole | NBA Total - Monday, May 13 2013 9:35PM
729 OKL / 730 MEM OVER 184.5 double-dime bet
Analysis:
6:35pm PT - 9:35pm ET / #729-730 / Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies
2* Play on: OVER THE TOTALComment
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JACK JONES
MLB Baseball Premium Picks
MLB | May 13 '13 (7:05p)
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Milwaukee Brewers
+135 at BMaker
15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Brewers +135
The Pittsburgh Pirates are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers as a big home favorite over the Milwaukee Brewers Monday. I'll gladly side with the value and back the road dog in this one for a couple of different reasons.
The biggest is that I believe Milwaukee actually has the edge on the mound in this one despite what the season numbers say. Marco Estrada has pitched his best away from home this year, going 1-1 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.086 WHIP through three road starts for Milwaukee.
What I really love about Estrada is the fact that he has dominated his opposition in the past. Estrada is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.873 WHIP in six career starts against Pittsburgh. A.J. Burnett is 2-4 with a 4.99 ERA in nine career starts against the Brewers.
Milwaukee is 59-18 in its last 77 meetings with Pittsburgh. The Pirates are 5-12 in Burnett's last 17 starts. The Brewers are 9-1 in Estrada's last 10 starts vs. National League Central opponents. Milwaukee is 5-0 in Estrada's last 5 starts during game 1 of a series. Take the Brewers Monday.
MLB | May 13 '13 (7:05p)
New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals New York Mets
+180 at SIA
15* MLB Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on New York Mets +180
The New York Mets are showing awesome value Monday as nearly a 2-to-1 underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards do not have the edge on the mound OR at the plate that this line would indicate.
Lance Lynn is off to a fast start for St. Louis, but he was last year, too, and only put up pedestrian numbers by season's end. Lynn is 0-1 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.927 WHIP in one career start against New York, giving up three runs, two earned, and nine base runners over 4 2/3 innings of a 0-5 loss in June of 2012.
Jeremy Hefner is a much better starter than he's getting credit for here. He has been dominant of late, posting a 3.00 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in his last three starts. Hefner has allowed just 7 earned runs and 19 base runners over 21 innings in his last three outings.
St. Louis is scoring just 3.9 runs/game at home this season, while New York is scoring 5.4 runs/game on the road. The Cardinals are 11-24 (-20.8 Units) against the money line after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Mets Monday.
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-= TOP PLAY =-
NBA | May 13 '13 (9:35p)
OKLAHOMA CITY GM4 vs MEMPHIS GM4 Total
184Β½ un-110 at 5dimes
20* Thunder/Grizzlies TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 184.5
As a series goes on, the more teams become familiar with one another, and the tougher it is to score points as a result. That was evident in Game 3 of this series as Memphis beat Oklahoma City 87-81 for 168 combined points.
I fully expect this pivotal Game 4 to be similarly low-scoring to Game 3. Memphis controls the tempo playing at home, and it wants to grind it out in the half court. Oklahoma City is unable to run due to Russell Westbrook being out for the season.
The UNDER is 5-0 in Thunder last 5 games following a S.U. loss. The UNDER is 21-6-2 in Thunder last 29 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The UNDER is 12-4 in Grizzlies last 16 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.Comment
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Kevin
MLBPredictions w/writeup
2 UNIT = Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks - UNDER 8 RUNS (-109)
Listed Pitchers: Minor vs Miley
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.83 units)
The Atlanta Braves dropped three straight over the weekend against San Francisco scoring just 4 runs over those three games. Arizona took the first two at home vs Philly but then dropped the final two for a 4 game split. In their last 5 games they’ve scored just 11 runs total. It will be an all south paw match up with Atlanta sending Mike Minor to the mound and Arizona going with lefty Wade Miley. Minor is 4-2 on the season with a 2.96 ERA, .201 OBA and 0.90 WHIP. Minus one rough outing he has pitched exceptional this year allowing 3 earned runs or fewer in 6 of 7 starts. Wade Miley is also off to a great start going 3-1 with a 2.93 ERA, .253 OBA and 1.35 WHIP over his 7 starts. He has allowed more than 3 earned runs just once over his 7 starts as well. Take note that the UNDER is 45-21-2 in the Braves last 68 games as a favorite 12-5-1 in their last 18 as a road gavorite, and 10-3 in Minor’s last 13 starts as a favorite. The UNDER is 5-0 in the D’backs last 5 games, 11-4 in their last 15 games as an underdog, and 9-4 in Miley’s last 13 home starts. Take the UNDER tonight.Comment
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VSI
Toronto MapleleafsComment
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Z money
Memphis -4.5
Texas/Oakland over 8
LaDodgers +120Comment
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SB Professor MLB
Chicago Cubs -115
Oakland Athletics -113Comment
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Vincent Rizzo Sports
PREMIUM PLAY
ST.LOUIS -1.5+110 (1.00 U)Comment
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Sports Cash System
Washington Nationals -120 over the Los Angeles DodgersComment
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Dwayne Bryant
MLB -- 10:05 pm ET
2 Units
[917] TEXAS RANGERS +105
List Grimm & Griffin
Texas has won four straight games, while the A's have lost six of their last seven. And while Texas has been hitting well (.303 BA & 6.2 runs per game in their last five games), Oakland has not (.194 BA & 2.6 rpg in their last five). I'm sure Texas remembers getting swept here in Oakland to end last season; a sweep that cost them the AL West title, handing it to these A's. Payback time. TEXAS wins tonight.Comment
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ROOT
millionaire bulls
no limit thunderComment
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BookiesHunter
3* St. Louis CardsComment
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INDIAN COWBOY
NBA
4* Chicago Bulls +8Comment
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