5-16-13

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thursday's NBA playoff action: What bettors need to know

Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks (-4.5 179)

Indiana leads series 3-1.

The New York Knicks have not been able to get anything done against the Indiana Pacers’ defense. The Pacers will be looking to ride that defense to a series victory when they attempt to close out the host Knicks in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference semifinals Thursday. New York has only had one stretch of strong offense and used it to secure its only win in Game 2. The Knicks have been held to an average of 76.5 points in the last two games.

Indiana has chased New York off the 3-point line and has controlled the glass to gain second-chance points and keep the Knicks from getting out on the break. New York stars Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith were a combined 15-for-45 from the field Tuesday and have struggled throughout the series. Knicks coach Mike Woodson is still looking at things optimistically. “It takes four games to get out of this series,” he said. “We go home, we handle our business at home and we get back (to Indiana) on Friday and see if we can force Game 7. That’s what I’m thinking. That’s the only way I’m thinking.”

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE PACERS: Paul George has not been shooting well in the series but has been able to make an impact in several other places. The All-Star forward has played tight defense on Anthony and has been a force on the glass along with the rest of the Indiana frontcourt. George Hill shouldered more of the scoring load in Game 4, including 14 of the Pacers’ 19 points in the third quarter that kept the team in control. “(Hill) was spectacular, maybe the best game I’ve ever seen him play,” Indiana coach Frank Vogel said. “He was just making all the winning plays. He not only executed our offense, he bailed us out a few times when things broke down late in the shot clock.” Hill finished with a Game 4-high 26 points on 9-of-14 shooting.

ABOUT THE KNICKS: Anthony has shot under 40 percent from the field in six of the last seven games but Smith has been even worse, connecting at 28.6 percent in six games since serving a one-game suspension during Game 4 of the first round. “I take the blame for this whole series,” Smith told reporters after Game 4. “It started off with Game 4 in Boston or Game 5. I haven’t been playing myself. I haven’t been playing my part. I’ve been letting my teammates down. I’ve been letting my coaches down.” New York attempted to counter Indiana’s size advantage by starting Tyson Chandler and Kenyon Martin together in the frontcourt. That may have played a part in poor shooting nights from Roy Hibbert and David West in the Pacers frontcourt, but the Knicks were still outrebounded 54-36.

TRENDS:

* Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Under is 8-2-1 in Knicks last 11 overall.
* Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.
* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Knicks F Amar’e Stoudemire (knee) played 11 minutes in Game 4 off the bench and had as many fouls as points (four).

2. Indiana is 7-0 in the postseason when Hill scores more than 12 points.

3. New York G Jason Kidd has not scored in any of the last eight games despite playing at least 15 minutes in each.


San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors (+1.5, 195.5)

San Antonio leads series 3-2.

The experience and execution of the San Antonio Spurs has allowed them to grab control of their Western Conference semifinal series against the Golden State Warriors. The Spurs will have a chance to close out the series when they visit the Warriors for Game 6 Thursday. Golden State star Stephen Curry was held to nine points in Game 5 and has shot under 50 percent in each of the last four games while struggling through an ankle sprain.

San Antonio guard Tony Parker has been battling a calf injury but showed no signs that he was slowed while collecting 25 points and 10 assists in Game 5. The All-Star slashed through the Warriors perimeter defense and made Curry work hard at both ends of the floor. “Our energy was good,” Parker said after the game. “We got the 50-50 ball. That was huge for us tonight. … Tonight we played for 48 minutes.” The Spurs even outrebounded the Warriors for the first time in the series 38-36 as Tim Duncan got the better of Andrew Bogut down low.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

ABOUT THE SPURS: San Antonio used a 15-0 run in the first quarter of Game 5 to seize control and did not trail the rest of the way. After shooting poorly in the fourth quarter and overtime during the Game 4 loss, the Spurs hit 51.9 percent from the field back at home for Game 5. Two of the biggest contributors were Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green, who each came up with big shots to help slow Golden State runs. Coach Gregg Popovich was quick to credit the effort on defense and on the glass. “The series for us is all about the defense,” he told reporters. “…We got a lot of mismatches. They love those mismatches, so we have to play intelligently. I thought we did that tonight. But we followed up the defense with a board. There is no stop until the board is secured.” Duncan secured 11 boards and is averaging 11.2 in the series.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Golden State got this far with a lot of energy and some incredible shooting performances from Curry and Klay Thompson. The Warriors did not have either one of those things in San Antonio Tuesday. Curry and Thompson combined for 13 points on 6-of-22 shooting, and Thompson, whose 8-of-9 performance from beyond the arc helped Golden State even the series in Game 2, did not even attempt a 3-pointer. “I was terrible, plain and simple,” Curry told reporters. “They outplayed us as a team. Individually, I didn’t have anything on either end. (I was) a step slow, my shot wasn’t falling and I was trying to make plays but defensively I lost a little focus.” Coach Mark Jackson pulled Curry and Thompson with over four minutes left to give Curry all the time he could to rest up his ankle for Game 6. The Warriors pulled off an overtime home win in Game 4 and have gone 4-1 in their own arena this postseason, with the lone setback coming to the Spurs in Game 3, 102-92.

TRENDS:

* Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Under is 12-3-1 in Spurs last 16 road games.
* Spurs are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Duncan (143) needs one more double-double to snap a tie with Wilt Chamberlain and move into sole possession of second place on the all-time playoff list. Magic Johnson leads with 157.

2. Barnes is the first player in history to record 25 or more points in back-to-back playoff games after never reaching that mark in the regular season.

3. Golden State F David Lee played 12 minutes Tuesday - his longest stretch since suffering a torn hip flexor in Game 1 of the first round.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sharks at Kings: What bettors need to know

San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles Kings (-143, 4.5)

Los Angeles leads series 1-0.

The fifth-seeded Los Angeles Kings attempt to continue their home dominance Thursday when they host the sixth-seeded San Jose Sharks in Game 2 of their Western Conference second-round series. Los Angeles ended the regular season with seven consecutive wins at Staples Center and has kept on rolling in the playoffs, winning all three home games against the St. Louis Blues in the first round. The reigning Stanley Cup champions, who have home-ice advantage for the first time since 1992, made it 11 in a row Tuesday as they posted a 2-0 victory over San Jose in the series opener.

Jonathan Quick made 35 saves for his sixth career playoff shutout - and second this postseason - as he has maintained the form that won him the Conn Smythe Trophy last year. Teammate Slava Voynov is emerging as a challenger for the award this postseason. The defenseman netted his third goal of the playoffs - all game-winners - and added an assist Tuesday, while Mike Richards also scored and set up a tally. The loss in Game 1 was the first of the postseason for the Sharks, who swept the Northwest Division champion Vancouver Canucks in the first round. San Jose registered 16 of its 35 shots in the third period but could not avoid being shut out for the 17th time in franchise playoff history.

TV: 10 p.m. ET, NBCSN, TSN, RDS

ABOUT THE SHARKS: Raffi Torres is at it again. After delivering an illegal hit to the head of Chicago's Marian Hossa while a member of the Phoenix Coyotes during last year's playoffs that drew a 25-game suspension, Torres appeared to make contact with the head of Los Angeles' Jarret Stoll in the final minute of the second period Tuesday. Torres, who earned a charging penalty, also may receive some sort of punishment from the league for the hit on Stoll, who did not return to the game afterward. "To be honest, I didn't really think it was even going to be a penalty," Torres said. "I still feel like I got shoulder to his shoulder, and then it looked - because he was leaning over - that I came up a little high. I hope he's alright." Coach Todd McLellan doesn't feel Torres should be disciplined by the league. "Clean hit, not even a charging penalty, in my opinion," he said. Center Bracken Kearns received 6:05 of ice time and registered one shot in his first career playoff game. Kearns, who turned 32 Sunday, has appeared in six NHL regular-season contests.

ABOUT THE KINGS: Richards increased his team-leading point total to seven with his goal and assist Tuesday. The former Philadelphia Flyers captain has recorded multi-point performances in three of his last four games. "He just steps up," coach Darryl Sutter said. "It's refreshing to see guys like that, that when it's a big game, they step up. He did it last series (too)." The Kings have not lost at home since suffering back-to-back shutout losses to the Dallas Stars and Vancouver on March 21 and 23, respectively. Sutter did not give an update on Stoll but admitted, without actually saying it, that the center was injured. "Well, we weren't resting him and he didn't come back," Sutter said. Richards' tally 12 1/2 minutes into the second period of the series opener gave the Kings their first two-goal lead this postseason.

TRENDS:

* Sharks are 1-4 in their last 5 Conference Semifinals games.
* Kings are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
* Under is 7-1-2 in Kings last 10 overall.
* Home team is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings.

OVERTIME

1. D Matt Irwin led the Sharks with six shots on goal in the series opener, while C James Sheppard and D Justin Braun were the only members of the team who failed to register at least one.

2. With three game-winning goals, Voynov has set a franchise record for a defenseman in a single postseason.

3. Los Angeles has won five straight playoff games, including a franchise-record four in a row at home.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Three 'fade' candidates on the mound Thursday

Another light schedule in the bigs but plenty of 'fade' material is on the mound Thursday. Stephen Strasburg gets the ball for the Washington Nationals and highlights three starting pitchers that might be worth a look as fade bets.

Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals (1-5, 3.10 ERA)

Strasburg has not won a decision since opening day and Washington has just one victory in Strasburg's previous seven starts. The ERA is fine at 3.10, but the Nats supply Strasburg with a paltry 2.25 runs per game. That total ranks him second last in the NL.

Strasburg will try for his first win since April 1 as he takes the mound against the San Diego Padres Thursday. He lasted four innings and gave up four runs in his lone start versus the Pads in 2012.

Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox (2-1, 3.72 ERA)

Quintana had a pretty good start to the season with two victories and a very good 2.78 ERA in his first four starts. Since then, the Sox have lost his last three starts and the righty is riding a 5.06 ERA over those previous three outings.

Quintana will take the hill against the Los Angeles Angels Thursday. His last start was coincidentally against the Angels. The Sox lost 3-2 with Quintana allowing three runs (two earned) in six innings.

Felix Doubront, Boston Red Sox (3-1, 6.40 ERA)

Doubront was torched for six earned runs in 3 2/3 innings in his last start on May 3 against the Texas Rangers. The righty came out of the bullpen on May 8 and gave up another six runs in 5 1/3 innings of relief work versus the Minnesota Twins.

Doubront gets the start against the surging Tampa Bay Rays Thursday. He started three games versus the Rays in 2012 and surrendered eight runs in 16 2/3 innings in those starts.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pacers Attempt to End Knicks Season on Thursday

Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game 5 - Indiana leads series 3-1
Tip-off: Thursday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: New York -4.5, Total: 179

The Knicks look to avoid elimination when the Pacers pay a visit to Madison Square Garden on Thursday night.

Indiana took New York out of Game 4 from the opening tip, leading by 14 points at halftime and winning the game handily, 93-82, to go up 3-1 in this Eastern Conference semifinal series. In the Knicks' two straight losses, they have averaged a horrific 76.5 PPG on 35% FG and 28% threes (11-of-40). J.R. Smith’s poor shooting was the story again in Game 4, as the league's Sixth Man of the Year made just 7-of-22 FG, which actually increased his shooting clip to 28% FG (18-of-64) for the series. If the Pacers can keep forcing the Knicks to take tough shots without having to double team Carmelo Anthony, it is likely a matchup with the Heat awaits them sooner rather than later. The Pacers are now 7-3 (SU and ATS) in the playoffs, but are just 21-24 SU (22-23 ATS) on the road this season. New York is a strong 34-12 SU and 27-19 ATS (59%) at home, and is a solid 20-12 SU and 18-13-1 ATS (58%) following an SU loss this season.

The Pacers were not going to allow the Knicks to steal Game 4 from them and got off to a great start that the Knicks could never recover from. SF Paul George played an outstanding game for Indiana, nearly registering a triple-double in 45 minutes of play. He finished the game with 18 points (6-of-19 FG, 1-of-9 threes), 14 rebounds and seven assists. Although George’s jumper wasn’t falling, he was getting to the rim, getting his teammates involved and also bearing down defensively with two steals, two blocks and a game-high +16 rating. PG George Hill was the leading scorer for the Pacers in Game 4 with 26 points, knocking down 9-of-14 FG (64%), which doubled his 32% FG clip in Games 1-3. Roy Hibbert wasn’t scoring the basketball much on Tuesday with six points on 2-of-8 FG, but he did finish the game with 11 rebounds and three blocks. SG Lance Stephenson hit some huge threes for the Pacers at the end of the shot clock, scoring 13 points (5-of-13 FG, 3-of-7 threes) in 35 minutes while also grabbing seven rebounds. The Pacers team defense has been superb in the past two victories, and they out-rebounded the Knicks by 18 (54-36) in Game 4, while outscoring them 36-26 in the paint.

The Knicks ranked second in the East in scoring during the regular season with 100.0 PPG on 45% FG and 38% threes, but they have been ice-cold in this series, scoring just 88.3 PPG on 41% FG and 32% threes. SF Carmelo Anthony started off Game 4 hot with 24 points in the first three quarters, but he didn’t score a single point in the fourth. Anthony, who has 26.0 PPG on 41% FG in the series, was in foul trouble late in the game on Wednesday and couldn’t get it going to bring his team back. However, SG J.R. Smith is the one player who has struggled the most for New York. Smith averaged 18.1 PPG on 36% threes during the regular season, but during the East semifinals, he's averaging just 13.3 PPG on 23% threes (6-for-26). The Knicks rely on Smith to be their second scorer and with him struggling, they haven’t been able to find another reliable source of offense. PG Raymond Felton has averaged just 10.0 PPG on 8-of-24 FG (0-for-2 threes) in the past two losses, but he did shoot well in the two games in this series at Madison Square Garden with 16.0 PPG on 62% FG, including 3-of-3 from long range. He's also done a good job of protecting the basketball with 14 assists and just five turnovers this series. New York will also need SF Iman Shumpert to find his rhythm in Game 5 as well. Partly due to injuring his left knee in Game 3, Shumpert is 3-for-16 FG (0-for-6 threes) in his past two games, including zero points on Tuesday. But like Felton, Shumpert was much more comfortable shooting at home in this series with 13.0 PPG on 50% FG in Games 1 and 2.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spurs Seek to Put Away Warriors on Thursday

Western Conference Semifinals
Game 6 - San Antonio leads series 3-2
Tip-off: Thursday, 10:35 p.m. ET
Line: San Antonio -1, Total: 195.5

The inconsistent Spurs will try to finish off the pesky Warriors on Thursday night in Oakland when the teams meet in Game 6.

No team has won two straight games in this series, but San Antonio bounced back from a Game 4 collapse to crush Golden State 109-91 in Tuesday's Game 5 at AT&T Center. Both teams shot the ball well, with the Spurs knocking down 52% FG and the Warriors hitting 47% of their shots, but San Antonio drained 10-of-21 threes and outscored its opponent 55-40 in the second half. The Spurs starting backcourt of Tony Parker and Danny Green completely outplayed Golden's State starting guards (Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson), outscoring them 41 to 13. Now the series shifts back to Oracle Arena where the Warriors are 32-14 SU (27-19 ATS), including 4-1 (SU and ATS) in the postseason. The Spurs have been a strong road team at 26-19 SU (23-22 ATS) this season, including 3-1 (SU and ATS) in the playoffs. But this veteran club hasn't been great with just one day's rest (26-29 ATS) and is also subpar after an SU win (30-32-2 ATS). Golden State is an average 27-25-1 ATS with one day's rest, but is an excellent 26-13 ATS (67%) following an SU loss this season.

The Spurs offense has been wildly inconsistent in the past four games, shooting 39% FG in Game 2, 51% FG in Game 3, 36% FG in Game 4 and 52% FG on Tuesday. But the one consistency has been ball protection, as the club has committed just 10, 11, 11 and 10 turnovers during this erratic shooting span. Golden State has had a decisive advantage on the boards this series (+9.4 RPG), but San Antonio held the 38-36 rebounding edge in Game 5. PG Tony Parker (24.4 PPG, 5.8 APG, 5.0 RPG in series) has had a phenomenal series, and after shooting poorly in Game 4 on Sunday (6-for-17 FG), he found his stroke on Tuesday with 25 points (9-of-16 FG), 10 assists, two turnovers and a +14 rating. SG Danny Green (12.2 PG, 4.2 RPG in series) also had a strong effort with 16 points on 6-of-10 shooting, but he has been ice-cold at Oracle Arena this series, scoring just 6.5 PPG on 5-of-16 FG (3-of-12 threes). PF Tim Duncan (19.6 PPG, 11.2 RPG in series) posted his fourth double-double of the series on Tuesday with 14 points and 11 boards, plus a +27 rating, to more than make up for his subpar 40.7% FG clip over the five games. SF Kawhi Leonard (14.4 PPG, 9.0 RPG in series) has averaged nearly a double-double in the series, and was almost perfect from the floor in Game 5 with 17 points on 7-of-8 shooting, including a big-time dunk to propel his team in the third quarter. SG Manu Ginobili (14.2 PPG, 5.4 APG, 4.8 RPG in series) continues to shoot poorly this series (36% FG), but he's hit 7-of-14 threes over the past two contests.

The Warriors' offense has shot poorly at home this series with just 94.5 PPG on 38.7% FG, but has made a strong 35.1% threes at Oracle Arena. Speaking of shooting poorly, PG Stephen Curry (22.6 PPG, 7.0 APG in series) made just 4-of-14 shots (1-of-7 threes) for a playoff-low nine points in Game 5, to knock his percentages down to 41% FG and 37% threes for the series. His ankle injury has certainly been bothering him, as he's made just 23-of-66 shots (34.8%) in the past four contests. SG Klay Thompson (16.8 PPG, 6.6 RPG in series) is also coming off his worst game of the series, totaling just four points on 2-of-8 shooting. After scoring 26.5 PPG on 51% FG in Games 1 and 2, Thompson has averaged just 10.3 PPG on 34% FG in the past three contests. The one Warriors player that has been red-hot is SF Harrison Barnes (19.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG in series), who has 25.5 PPG and 8.5 RPG in the past two games, which includes 25 points (10-of-18 FG) and seven boards in Game 5. PG Jarrett Jack (15.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG in series) has also provided big offensive numbers in the past two contests with 22.0 PPG (56% FG) and 5.5 RPG. However, Jack has more turnovers (14) than assists (13) in this series, despite posting a career-high 2.8 Ast/TO ratio during the regular season. PF Carl Landry (10.8 PPG on 56% FG and 6.4 RPG in series) and C Andrew Bogut (6.8 PPG, 12.4 RPG in series) continue to fill the void of PF David Lee, who has managed just 23 minutes this series, scoring 11 points with eight rebounds. Landry scored a series-high 16 points on Tuesday, getting to the line a dozen times, but Bogut contributed series lows in both points (two) and rebounds (six) in Game 5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Three teams books don't want to win the NBA Championship
By JASON LOGAN

Earlier this season, we asked sportsbooks both online and in Nevada which NBA teams would do the most damage to the futures book if they won the NBA Championship.

Just about every book said the Los Angeles Lakers, but as we all know, that ain’t happening. But there were a few teams mentioned that are still in the postseason hunt as well as some new threats building for books as the playoffs march on.

Here are three teams that books are cheering against during the NBA playoffs:

Miami Heat (Currently -275 to -400)

The reigning NBA champs vary in price depending how much that futures book has riding on the Heat. Miami entered the year as the favorite to repeat and hasn’t swayed much in terms of title odds. That hasn’t stopped bettors from forking over the dough on Miami’s hefty futures price.

“Right now we are in a great position on everyone except Miami,” Jeff Sherman, assistant manager at the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas told Covers. “Since the playoffs started, kids have been laying -300 and -350 non-stop on them. It's not enough that we won't be able to maneuver our position when it gets to the NBA Finals though.”

Online sportsbooks are also feeling the heat from the Heat. UWin.com offered Miami as high as +300 during the offseason and bettors took a big bite of that action.

“We’re almost resigned to the fact that Miami will stroll to the defense of their title,” Russ Candler of UWin.com told Covers. “We dangled a carrot preseason by offering +300 that they’d win and by the time March came around they decided to have another crack at them. So, needless to say, we’re sitting here with our pants around our ankles.”

Golden State Warriors (Currently +2,500 to +2,000)

The MGM Mirage was rooting against the Indiana Pacers back in February, but now the tables have turned and the Warriors have become the biggest threat to their futures book. Golden State, which was as high as 100-1 this season, has drawn a lot of attention during its improbable playoff run.

“The Warriors would be a small loser for us,” Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage told Covers. “We had them up around 100-1 but have brought them down to 20-1. That’s a little lower than they should really be but it’s because they would be a negative if they were to win the championship.”

San Antonio Spurs (Currently +700 to +500)

San Antonio shows up on these lists every year, due to its consistent success. The Spurs aren’t the sexiest pick to win the NBA title, especially with the two Los Angeles teams and Oklahoma City drawing all the attention in the West. San Antonio was as big as +1,200 to win the NBA title early in the season.

“You seem to get money on (San Antonio) every year,” Jimmy Vaccaro, veteran oddsmaker for William Hill Nevada, told Covers back in February. “You know you’re going to get the effort, win or lose, and you’ve seen them win without (Tim) Duncan, (Tony) Parker and (Manu) Ginobili. Any time you bet on the Spurs, you have a great chance of going deep into the playoffs.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty had no play Wednesday and likes the Knicks Thursday.

The deficit is 468 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Day Favored to Win Byron Nelson Championship
by Steve Bennett

Byron Nelson Championship

Tees Off: Thursday, May 16
TPC Four Seasons Resort – Irving, TX
Odds to Win Tournament

Golfer Odds

Jason Day 12-to-1
Matt Kuchar 15-to-1
Jason Dufner 15-to-1
Keegan Bradley 20-to-1
Marc Leishman 20-to-1
Louis Oosthuizen 20-to-1
Charl Schwartzel 20-to-1
Ryan Palmer 25-to-1
Jimmy Walker 25-to-1
Robert Garrigus 30-to-1
D.A. Points 30-to-1
Jeff Overton 30-to-1
Jordan Spieth 30-to-1
Ben Crane 40-to-1
Freddie Jacobson 40-to-1
Martin Kaymer 50-to-1
Charles Howell III 50-to-1
Boo Weekley 50-to-1
Charley Hoffman 50-to-1
Brian Davis 60-to-1
Padraig Harrington 60-to-1
Scott Piercy 60-to-1
John Senden 60-to-1
Angel Cabrera 60-to-1
Harris English 60-to-1
Robert Karlsson 60-to-1
7 golfers 80-to-1
5 golfers 100-to-1
5 golfers 125-to-1
Jeff Maggert 150-to-1
Ryo Ishikawa 150-to-1
Kenny Perry 250-to-1
John Daly 300-to-1
Guan Tianlang 1,000-to-1
FIELD (Any other golfer) 7-to-4

The Tour swings back to Texas for the Byron Nelson Championship. TPC Four Seasons is traditionally one of the toughest Par 70’s on the Tour, and two of the past three champions (Keegan Bradley in 2011, Jason Day in 2010) won on their first visit to Irving.

Here’s a look at who’s poised to break through this week…

Jason Day (12/1): The Aussie’s track record at Four Seasons is strong, including a win in 2010 and a T9 last year. It’s been a solid month or so for Day, who finished alone in third at Augusta and also moved into the top-20 with a final-round 68 at last week’s Players Championship.

Matt Kuchar (15/1): Kuchar hasn’t quite been able to build off his T8 at Augusta, making the cut in both his starts since then, but failing to place higher than T35. But he has gone top-15 at the Byron Nelson each of the past two years, including a T6 in 2011.

Keegan Bradley (20/1): It’s been a roller coaster year for Bradley, who went top-10 in each of his four starts in March, but hasn’t had a top-50 finish since then, including back-to-back missed cuts. Getting back to Four Seasons should serve him well though, as he won here in 2011. And after a string of three poor performances (a T35 and two missed cuts) leading up to last year’s Byron Nelson, Bradley started strong (67-68) before fading to a T24 finish.

Jason Dufner (15/1): The defending champ posted his second straight top-10 at Four Seasons last year. He hasn’t had much of a 2013, with zero top-10's on the season, but the odds should be relatively nice for a defending champ who has a legitimate shot to repeat.

Brian Gay (80/1): Gay has had a rough go of it in 2013. Since winning the Humana Challenge back in January, he’s failed to finish better than 24th in any tournament, and he’s missed three cuts over the past two months. But he’s a guy who can close out a tournament when he gets a chance, as evidenced by his four career wins. And he’s gone top-15 in three of his past five starts at Four Seasons, including a runner-up in 2010.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HP Byron Nelson: Golf betting preview and picks
By MATT FARGO

The PGA Tour rolls into Texas this week for the HP Byron Nelson Championship from the TPC Four Seasons Resort Las Colinas in Irving, Texas.

The TPC Four Seasons Resort is a 7,166-yard, Par-70 layout and while there are plenty of hazards to deal with, it is the tough wind that players need to figure out. That will be the case again as the forecast is calling for high winds throughout the weekend. Hitting fairways has always been tough here and last year was no exception as players caught the short grass just over 52 percent of the time. Also, familiarity with Texas wind is a good asset to have.

Jason Dufner (+1,500) will look to defend his championship but he is not playing nearly as well this year as he was last year coming in. He had four top tens including a pair of victories but this year he is without a top ten, his highest finish being a T12 at the WGC-Cadillac Championship. A light field could certainly help him but he is not in good form right now.

Jason Day (+1,200) is the favorite this week and for good reason. He is a past champion here as he won in 2010 and followed that up with a solo fifth in 2011 and a T9 last year. He has yet to miss a cut this year, has four top tens including a pair of solo thirds and had a solid Sunday at THE PLAYERS to finish T19. He is ranked 14th in the all-around with only three players in the field ahead of him.

Louis Oosthuizen (+2,000) is the highest ranked player in the field this week and he is coming off a solid T19 last week at Sawgrass where led the field in driving distance. He did miss the cut at the Byron Nelson last year but that came after a missed cut at THE PLAYERS. He has been all over the place this year and has yet to break through on American soil but his time will come and here is as good of a place as any.

Chances are Jimmy Walker (+2,500) will be around for the weekend as he has made 22 straight cuts, the longest active streak on tour. He has finished outside the top 30 only once this year and he is ranked 10th in the all-around. He went to college at Baylor so this is right in his back yard and while his best finish here is a T23, he is playing the best golf of his career. This is a fitting place for his first tour win.

Jordan Spieth (+3,000) would typically be in the longshot category but not here with the thin field. He made his PGA Tour debut here with a T16 in 2010 and while he has not been able to better that, this should be the year to do so. He has three top tens to his credit in 2013 including a T2 in Puerto Rico and being from Texas, he knows the wind. He is ranked 12th in the all-around.

James Driscoll (+15,000) is a huge longshot this week but we will take a chance on the Texas native. He has four top tens in 15 starts in Texas and at the Byron Nelson, he finished T19 last year after a T8 in 2011. He has bounced back from four straight missed cuts with a solid effort at the Wells ***** while finishing T26 last week at THE PLAYERS after a Thursday 75.

Recommended tournament win five pack at HP Byron Nelson Championship (all for one unit)

Jason Day (+1,200)
Louis Oosthuizen (+2,000)
Jimmy Walker (+2,500)
Jordan Spieth (+3,000)
James Driscoll (+15,000)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Wainwright is 5-1, 2.05 in his last seven starts.
-- Liriano won his first '13 start, allowing one run in 5.1 IP.
-- Latos is 4-0, 3.19 in his last five starts. Fernandez is 2-0, 2.07 in his last couple starts.
-- Cain is 2-0, 1.76 in his last two starts.
-- Volquez is 3-0, 2.49 in his last four starts. 2-5;

-- Harang is 1-1, 3.00 in his last two starts (0-3, 11.37 first three).
-- Verlander is 2-1, 2.42 in his last four starts. Darvish is 4-0, 2.73 in his last five starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Niese is 0-4, 0-4, 8.49 in his last five starts.
-- Burgos allowed 12 runs in three IP last start, after going 1-0, 3.00 in his first three starts.
-- Chacin is 0-2, 6.00 since coming off the DL.
-- Strasburg is 0-5, 5.32 in his last seven starts.

-- Pettitte is 1-2, 6.35 in his last four starts.
-- Doubront has a 5.67 RA in five starts, but Red Sox won four of the five, scoring 30 runs. Cobb is 1-1, 5.29 in his last three starts.
-- White Sox lost last three Quintana starts (0-1, 5.63). Williams is 1-1, 5.73 in two starts this season.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Niese 3-8 (0 of last 4); Wainwright 2-8.
-- Burgos 1-4; Liriano 0-1
-- Latos 2-8; Fernandez 2-7
-- Cain 3-8; Chacin 2-6
-- Strasburg 4-8; Volquez 3-8 (0 of last 4)

-- Harang 3-5; Pettitte 2-7
-- Doubront 1-5; Cobb 2-7
-- Verlander 1-8; Darvish 4-8
-- Quintana 2-7; Williams 1-2

Totals
-- Eight of last twelve Met games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Pittsburgh games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last eleven Cincinnati games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine San Francisco games went over the total.
-- Six of last nine San Diego games stayed under the total.

-- Under is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Bronx games.
-- 16 of last 17 Tampa Bay games went over the total.
-- Seven of last ten Detroit games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Angel home games went over the total.

Hot teams
-- Cardinals won 12 of their last 14 games.
-- Pirates won five of their last six games.
-- Reds won their last five games, scoring 32 runs.
-- Padres won six of their last nine games.

-- Bronx won seven of its last nine games.
-- Rays won six of their last seven games.
-- Tigers won 12 of their last 18 games.
-- White Sox won three of their last four games.

Cold teams
-- Mets lost six in row, 14 of their last 18 games.
-- Brewers lost eleven of their last thirteen games.
-- Miami lost seven of its last eight games.
-- Colorado lost five of its last eight games. Giants lost their last two games, allowing 21 runs.
-- Nationals lost four of their last five games.
-- Mariners lost 10 of their last 15 road games.
-- Red Sox lost nine of their last twelve games.
-- Astros lost 12 of their last 15 games.
-- Angels lost six of their last eight home games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Basketball
The Daniel Curry Index

05/16/13 Predictions

Season
Straight Up: 846-398 (.680)
ATS: 665-610 (.522)
ATS Vary Units: 1659-1557 (.516)
Over/Under: 654-621 (.513)
Over/Under Vary Units: 901-832 (.520)

Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game #5
NEW YORK 93, Indiana 90

Western Conference Semifinals
Game #6
GOLDEN STATE 105, San Antonio 103

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

05/16/13 Predictions

Season: 306-191 (.616)

Eastern Conference Semifinals
Game #1
N.Y. Rangers vs. BOSTON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Western Conference Semifinals
Game #2
LOS ANGELES 3, San Jose 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NBA Picks

Indiana at New York

The Knicks look to stay alive in the series and build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 home games versus the Pacers. New York is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Knicks favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New York (-4 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, MAY 16 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 739-740: Indiana at New York (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 115.885; New York 125.530 Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 9 1/2; 174 Vegas Line & Total: New York by 4 1/2; 179 Dunkel Pick: New York (-4 1/2); Under

Game 741-742: San Antonio at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 122.329; Golden State 128.928 Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 6 1/2; 200 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 1 1/2; 195 Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+1 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NHL Picks

NY Rangers at Boston

The Bruins look to open the series and build on their 9-2 record in their last 11 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Boston is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Bruins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-135). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, MAY 16 Time Posted 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 5-6: NY Rangers at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.971; Boston 12.903 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-135); 5 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-135); Under

Game 9-10: San Jose at Los Angeles (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.423; Los Angeles 11.224 Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-150); 4 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Jose (+130); Over