5-19-13

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Jimmy Boyd

4* (MLB) NY Yankees ML -128

3* (MLB) Texas Rangers ML -116
3* (NBA) San Antonio Spurs -4.5

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Denver Money NHL Money Line Sun, 05/19/13 - 3:05 PM

dime bet - 17 NYR (+110) vs 18 BOS

Analysis: 1* New York Rangers +110

I am coming right back to the Rangers today in game 2 as I believe they are the better team and will even the series up today.

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Tex Green

300* INSIDERS MLB BASEBALL MONEY LINE WINNER
901 Arizona w/Miley -150 1:10 EST

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Don Best Consensus

Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers
Pick: Texas Rangers

The Rangers are 8-2 in their last 10 games overall, and they're 37-18 in their last 55 Sunday games. The Detroit Tigers do not fair too well down south as they're 3-10 in their last 12 meetings vs. Texas. The Rangers are up in the series 2-1 and will look to complete the series win on Sunday in prime time on ESPN. Play the Rangers.

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RTG Sports

San Antonio Spurs -4.5

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Jimmy Moore

#918 4* New York Yankees with Sabathia ML -130 (1:05 edt)<p>

Sabathia owns the Blue Jays with a career record of 14-4 against them and with Toronto sitting at 4-8 against lefties is only helps the Yankees here. New York traditionally beats up Toronto winning 19 of the last 23 in this series at home. Dickey has not been all that great this season after his big season last year and the Jays have been terrible in the division this season. It all adds up to a New York win here, thank you and good luck.

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Al DeMarco

N.L. Lock of the Month
15 Dime Release
Run Line Dog
Atlanta run line

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CHRIS JORDAN

200* Yankees

(list Sabbathia and Dickey)

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Brad Wilton

60 DIME
West Finals
Total of the Year

Over Memphis/San Antonio

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SPORTS WAGERS

COLORADO -1½ +164 over San Francisco

The Giants have to be feeling exhausted right about now. They lost yesterday by a final score of 10-2. The Giants have now been tagged for 47 runs against in their last five games and 10 runs or more against in four of those five. It’s one thing to lose a game but it’s quite another to be down by such crooked numbers early and end up having to play a marathon game when you’re down by five or six runs. In Barry Zito’s last start in Toronto, the Giants were down 6-0 after one inning. The next night in Toronto also, they were down 5-1 after one inning and 10-1 after three innings. Things haven’t been much better in Colorado, where the Giants were down 9-5 after five innings on Friday and down 6-1 after five innings yesterday. Playing in the high altitude in Denver is tiring enough, playing their fourth straight game there after allowing 47 runs against over their past five games, San Fran’s and it’s bullpen figures to running on fumes here.

We’ve been writing about how bad Barry Zito is for years. He’s not only been baseball’s luckiest pitcher for 2 years running, his skills are getting worse, not better. The Legend of Barry Zito made a wonderful story during the summer of 2012 that continued this spring and into the first six weeks, as he returned to relevance. But has he? No, he has not. A line-drive rate of 28% this season indicates that hitters have no problem squaring Zito up.

The big-two overall metrics that wrap up the individual items, xERA (5.75) and groundball rate (36%) are again far below desired levels. Expected ERA, in fact, is worse this year than any season since 2008. Zito gets credit for seeing his contract through and continuing to try to justify his lofty price tag but that doesn’t mean he’s an asset; the metrics tell us just the opposite. Zito’s 3.40 ERA is unsustainable. In three road starts in Milwaukee, San Diego and Toronto, Zito has lasted a combined 12 innings has allowed 26 hits and 20 earned runs for a road ERA of 11.25 and a road BAA of .426. At this park against this team, he’s going to get crushed again and with an already taxed bullpen, manager Bruce Bochy is likely going to leave Zito in there longer than he normally would.

Micro-fracture knee surgery in July ended Juan Nicasio’s season a year ago, curtailing his comeback from a fractured vertebrae that ended 2011. Between injuries, he has demonstrated a promising high-strikeout rate and a groundball-tilted profile that xERA likes. Poor results + injury history + latent skills = a potential profit candidate. Nicasio’s shelf time has prevented him from making use of his 94 mph fastball, a pitch that has given him his fair share of K’s. That said, there are warning signs in addition to his poor durability. His 7.3% swinging strike rate doesn't support a high strikeout rate and he's a two-pitch pitcher. In eight starts, Nicasio has made it past the fifth inning just two times. He’s unlikely to go past five innings again here because he’s not strong enough to do so. This one looks like another slugfest and if the Giants end up winning this game, we can almost assure you that’s it’s going to be a high scoring affair. It’s for that reason that we’ll play this game over the number as well as taking the Rockies on the run line.

Milwaukee +111 over ST. LOUIS

The Brewers rallied from six runs down on Friday in the opener of this series before losing it 7-6. They rebounded yesterday with an extra inning victory and have showed some real fight in them in the two games so far. The Brewers now get the most favorable matchup of the three games here. Kyle Lohse has had nothing but success at this park, where he went 9-1 with the Cardinals last year with an ERA of 2.30. Lohse has pinpoint control (10 BB in 49 IP), a groundball bias profile and his strikeout rate is up a tick (33 K’s). These skills allow Lohse to usually pitch deep into games and you know for sure he’ll be a little extra amped up for this one.

John Gast, 24 was originally drafted in the 5th round of the '07 draft by Texas but chose instead to go to Florida State University, where he pitched for three seasons before the Cardinals drafted him in the 6th round in '10. Gast systematically has worked his way from Low-A up through the system, advancing one level at some point during each season. He got out to a very fast April 2013 at Triple-A Memphis not allowing an earned run in his five starts. His strikeout rate is a tick higher this season than career norms, as is his control. He is a short, power lefty with a nice 90-93 mph fastball. He will also throw a good change-up and decent curveball. His delivery is nearly max-effort which is troubling for a starter, particularly one who has already had Tommy John surgery early on in their career. This combined with a lack of overpowering stuff could mean a more productive future in the bullpen. In his first career start last week against the Mets, Gast went six full innings and surrendered six hits and four earned runs while walking just one and striking out three. He got the win for his efforts because the Cardinals scored 10 runs. What follows a MLB debut win is usually a letdown and now Gast will face a Brewers club that is hitting a robust .282 against lefties this season. Chances are the Brew Crew will get to this rookie and that makes this visitor a worthwhile investment.

SAN DIEGO -½ +114 over Washington

1st 5 innings. The Nationals are perceived as the much better team and will probably draw a lot of attention in this matchup because that and because they are taking back a tag. Dan Haren is also a more well-known pitcher than Andrew Cashner and Haren brings a strong reputation with him. What may surprise you is that the Padres are better than the Nationals in just about every key category, including team batting average, stolen bases, defense and they also have a deeper bench. Dan Haren has pinpoint control with just six walks in 45 frames but that’s about all he has. Haren’s fastball has trouble breaking 90 mph now. His swinging strike rate trend during the last four seasons says to heed caution: 10.7%, 10.1%, 9.9%, 8.7%, 7.5%. Haren also has a rather ugly 35%/22%/43% GB/LD/FB batted ball profile and while his pinpoint control does give him less blowup risk than most average pitchers, his upside is long gone and even a 4.50 ERA might be a stretch now. Haren has three pure quality starts in eight attempts this season and should not be viewed as a good pitcher anymore.

Andrew Cashner went 3-4 last year with a 4.27 ERA in 46 IP. He transitioned from relief to starter then lost 60 days to a lat strain (after rotator cuff injury washed out 2011). Cashner’s health poses questions, skills not so much. The kid throws gas; had 23/3 K/BB in 19 IP as starter and he induces grounders. If body parts cooperate, he’s a definite breakout candidate. We’re not sure people realize how good this kid really is. In five starts this season, Cashner's fastball velocity has averaged 94.8 MPH, second only to Stephen Strasburg among NL starters. His fastball has good movement and has reached 98 MPH on several occasions. He's a work in progress, for sure, but a talented work and he’s coming on with just one runs allowed over his past 14.1 innings and that includes a 7.1 inning gem at Baltimore. Cashner will now face a Nationals team that is hitting just .226 over the past 15 games. The Padres are very likely going to do some damage against Haren while Cashner has the ability to make quick work of these light hitting Nats and therefore we’ll play this one in the first five innings.

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SPORTS WAGERS

OTTAWA +115 over Pittsburgh

OT included. Pittsburgh has without question been the better team in this series The Penguins have dominated the first 10 minutes of both games by a wide, wide margin and have gone on to outplay and outwork the Senators for the majority of the first two games as well. Ottawa’s 4-3 loss in Game 2 was a flattering score to the Sens, as they were they outshot 42 to 22 and they were also out-chanced 23 to 10. They really had no business being in that game. The Sens were better in the 4-1 loss in Game 1. These are not the Senators we’ve been accustomed to seeing. This is a team that worked their tails off in their quest to make the playoffs. They showed heart, determination and focus all season and carried that into their first round upset of the Canadiens. The Senators are not a team that gets outworked by this wide a margin and a response is in order. They appear to be in awe of the Penguins and that has to change right now for this Game 3 and we can assure you it will. Ottawa is healthier than they’ve been the entire year. They get Jason Spezza back for this one and while he may not contribute right away, the Penguins at least have to pay attention to him. They also have an edge in net and on defense. They Senators also have the advantage of being energized by a raucous home crowd and one can never dismiss that edge. Ottawa won both games at home against Montreal in round one and are now 17-6-3 at Scotiabank Place.

The Penguins seem to be getting better as the postseason progresses and while their offense is beauty in motion, they still have many flaws in net and behind the blue-line. Because the Pens have outplayed the Sens by such a wide margin, Pittsburgh has a nice psychological edge too but that can change in a hurry. If the Senators have any hope of getting back into this series, they will get back to playing Senator hockey here by slowing this team down, dumping and chasing and most importantly, OUTWORKING the Penguins. We’re betting they do precisely that.

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Bob Akmens Sports

Off a 4-0 day baseball and 1-1 hockey (Lost Blackhawks) BUT usually tanks after a strong win and as always all chalk

10* NY Yankees -130
10* Arizona Diamondbacks -150
50* Pittsburgh Pirates -190
10* Boston Red Sox -115
10* Chicago Cubs -145*

10* Pittsburgh Penquins -125

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Sports Junkie

$100 Play Texas Rangers

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Allen Eastman

4-Unit Play. Take #915 Seattle (-105) over Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, May 19)

I will go with the Mariners today. Felix Hernandez is on the mound and he will snap them out of this losing skid. Seattle barely lost the last two games. They lost both in late innings on walk-off hits. I think Seattle is going to avoid losing three in a row and they are getting the sharp money today. This line has moved from the Mariners being small underdogs to being a small favorite. It could get to -110 or -115. The Mariners are 12-4 when Hernandez starts as a road favorite.

2-Unit Play. Take #923 Chicago White Sox (+105) over L.A. Angels (4 p.m., Sunday, May 19)

The White Sox lost 12-9 yesterday. But they still have revenge for losing a home series to the Angels last week. They are going with Jake Peavy today and he will get the job done to wrap up this series. Peavy is 5-2 in his seven starts this year and has an ERA under 3.00. The Angels are 2-6 in their last eight home games and 2-7 in their last nine games after a win.

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Jason Sharpe

Sunday May 19th 2013

3 Unit Play Take #928 Texas -117 over Detroit (8:05pm est):

The Texas Rangers have looked like the much better of these two teams during this series so far with two easy wins by five or more runs while their lone loss was a tough one run defeat. They have outscored the Tigers 18-7 in the first three games overall. The Rangers have the best record in the American League at home this season and face a Tigers team who is under .500 on the road.

Derek Holland gets the call here for Texas and Holland has been a guy we have done very well backing this season. He comes in with an ERA of just 2.93 and a WHIP of of only 1.07. Those numbers have been even more impressive at home with a 1.57 ERA and a WHIP below 1.00 at just 0.96 with all three home starts this year being at least seven innings pitched and allowing two or less runs in each of the three home contests and doing so against some of the better offenses in baseball also (Red Sox, Rays and Angels).

The Detroit Tigers just don't look like the same baseball team without their center fielder and leadoff man Austin Jackson on the field. Jackson went on the disabled list about a week ago and since then Detroit has struggled going just 3-4 overall but two of those wins came against the hapless Houston Astros. Even more disturbing is that in the non-Houston games the Tigers have averaged just 2.5 runs per game in their four other contests and haven't scored over four runs in any of those games also.

Take Texas here in this one. My NBA post-season results have fallen right in line with all my 2013 NBA plays, a almost unheard of 60% win rate overall which is top standard in this industry. Keep in mind this also over a nice large sample size of 100 plays overall for the year. Join me the rest of the pro hoops playoffs and lets make some money.

Thank you and good luck,