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Game: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (12:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: Pittsburgh -135 (moneyline)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have suffered through a couple of decades of futility. But it appears that is going to end this season. The Pirates at 28-18 are legitimate contenders, and hot ones at that, having registered 10 wins in their last 12 games. They have outscored those 12 opponents 50-29, and the pitching has been sensational. The Cubs are an equally frustrated organization, but have not turned the corner, or even come close for that matter . The Cubs enter this game at 11-40 in their last 51 as a dog from +110 to +150. The Pirates have been lethal at home vs. right-handed pitching, at 7-0 in their last seven. Go with Pittsburgh.
Dr. Ed Meyer | MLB Money Line Thu, 05/23/13 - 7:05 PM
triple-dime bet 903 MIN (+160) 5dimes vs 904 DET
Minnesota +160 over DETROIT – The Twins were 18-17 ten days ago, but have lost eight straight to drop to 18-25. They were swept by the Red Sox and then went to Atlanta and lost three straight there. They have a great opportunity to steal this one at a nice price.
Rick Porcello only got two runs of support in his last outing and this is not a good sign if you like the Tigers. Detroit is 0-7 as a FAVORITE with Porcello when they scored a total of fewer than three runs in his last start. The SDQL text is:
starter=Rick Porcello and F and s:runs<3 and season>=2011
Porcello has on quality start in this spot and in his last two the Tigers lost 7-6 and 8-6 with Porcello giving up four runs in five or fewer innings in each game.
As a team, the Tigers are 0-7 as a FAVORITE when they are off a win in which they never trailed and used more than three pitchers. The SDQL text is:
team=Tigers and po:BL=0 and p:W and p:PU>3 and date>=20121024
If you run this query, you can see that the Tigers’ last five games in this spot were:
A 7-0 loss as a 185 favorite
An 8-6 loss as a 128 favorite
A 2-0 loss as a 161 favorite
A 6-2 loss as a 220 favorite
A 7-2 loss as a 125 favorite
And ALL five games are from THIS season.
The Twins will be glad to get back to divisional play. Minnesota is a very profitable 21-19 as a 120-plus DOG vs a divisional opponent that is ahead of them in the standings. On the average, Minnesota was plus 152 on the moneyline in these 40 games, but they are two games above 500 producing an ROI of +27.4%. The SDQL text is:
team=Twins and line>=120 and division=o:division and o:WP>WP and date>=20120602
This month, Minnesota is 2-0 in this spot, winning as a 190 dog and a 142 dog.
Minnesota was clobbered 8-3 by the Braves yesterday and they trailed 8-0 before they got on the board. The Twins’ grit after a bad loss has been drastically underestimated by the linesmakers. Minnesota is 8-1 as a road dog after a five-plus run defeat in which they were not shut out. The SDQL text is:
team=Twins and AD and p:margin<=-5 and p:runs>0 and date>=20120418
Minnesota has been a huge moneymaker in this spot, as they were an average of plus 159 on the moneyline, producing an ROI of +127.4%.
In Porcello’s last four starts vs Minnesota, he has averaged 4.75 inning of work, allowing 3.75 runs on 8.25 hits with a WHIP of 2.14. Yikes!
Of course, the Twins can certainly lose here. In fact their chance of winning might even be less than 50% -- we estimate it is close to a coin flip. But, this is how we’ve been making money all baseball season – uncovering dogs that have a significant chance of winning. This play is not a triple play because the Twins have a high probability of winning. It is a triple play because a significant overlay exists between the line and their probability of winning. The smart money is on Minnesota.
Action Report: Bettors buy into Sharks-Kings home trend
The NHL has the postseason spotlight all to itself Thursday night. There are three playoff games on the go, keeping sportsbooks busy adjusting their hockey odds.
We talk with Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the betting patterns heading into tonight’s NHL playoff action.
Boston Bruins at New York Rangers – Open: -120, Move: -108
The Rangers are down 0-3 to the Bruins and bettors aren’t buying a comeback anytime soon. New York’s moneyline odds have been trimmed as much as 12 cents depending on where you shop. However, there is action on the Rangers to at least keep things close in Game 4 at home.
“The Rangers are on the ropes. We are seeing good two-way action across the board on this game with a slight edge to the Rangers covering the -1.5 goal spread at 69 percent of the action,” Stewart tells Covers.
The total for Game 4 opened at 5 goals. The first three games have produced a 1-1-1 over/under count.
Chicago Blackhawks at Detroit Red Wings – Open: +125, Move: +115
Detroit has shocked the NHL’s top team and takes a 2-1 series lead into Game 4. Early money on Motown has trimmed the home side price by as much as 10 cents at some markets but the public is beginning to pound Chicago as the 8 p.m. ET faceoff draws closer.
“Everyone likes the Blackhawks to tie the series at two games apiece,” says Stewart. “Blackhawks are seeing 76 percent of the action at -140 and to cover the -1.5 goal line, with 86 percent of the action.”
The total for Game 4 is set at 5 goals. According to Stewart, 79 percent of the action is on the over. Detroit and Chicago have posted a 0-1-2 over/under mark in this series.
San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles Kings – Open: -149, Move: -145
The home team has dominated this series so far, winning all four games. The series swings back to Los Angeles, where the Kings are the popular pick among NHL bettors.
“Our bettors expect the trend to continue in Game 5, with the favorite Kings seeing 79 percent of the action on the moneyline and 89 percent of the action for the Kings to cover the -1.5 goal spread,” says Stewart.
The total for Game 5 is set at 4.5 goals. According to Stewart, 87 percent of wagers are coming in on the over. The Kings and Sharks have played to a 1-3 over/under mark in the first four games of this series.
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