5-25-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Greg Shaker | MLB Total - Saturday, May 25 2013 10:10PM
913 SDP / 914 ARI OVER 8.5 single-dime bet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Ed Meyer | MLB ML - Saturday, May 25 2013 7:15PM
ML 925 OAK -161 vs 926 HOU double-dime bet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JACK JONES

MLB Baseball Premium Picks

MLB | May 25 '13 (4:10p) Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers	Pittsburgh Pirates +118 at 5dimes
15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates +118 The Pittsburgh Pirates are showing solid value as an underdog to the Milwaukee Brewers. Pittsburgh has been one of the best teams in the league this year at 29-19, while Milwaukee is just 19-27. The Pirates have won 11 of their last 14, while the Brewers have lost 16 of their last 21. With the edge the Pirates have on the mound in this one, they should not be the dog. Jeff Locke has gone 4-1 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.960 WHIP in four road starts. Mike Fiers is no more than a spot starter for Milwaukee. He has only made one start this season, allowing six earned runs and 10 base runners over 5 innings of a 2-9 loss to Arizona. Fiers is 1-1 with a 6.13 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in three career starts against Pittsburgh. Milwaukee is 4-15 (-12.2 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season. The Pirates are 11-1 in their last 12 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Brewers are 1-7 in their last 8 games as a favorite. The Brewers are 0-4 in Fiers' last 4 home starts. Bet the Pirates Saturday.

MLB | May 25 '13 (4:10p) Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds	Chicago Cubs +165 at SIA
15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Cubs +165 The Chicago Cubs are showing perhaps their best value of the entire season as a big road underdog to the Cincinnati Reds Saturday. Travis Wood is one of the most underrated starters in the league, and that's evident by this ridiculous line. I believe the Cubs should actually be the favorite with Wood on the mound. The left-hander has gone 4-2 with a 2.24 ERA and 0.912 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.709 WHIP in three road starts. Homer Bailey has been solid for Cincinnati as well with a 3.09 ERA on the season. However, Bailey has posted a 5.12 ERA and 1.586 WHIP in 10 career starts against Chicago. Bailey is 8-17 (-11.3 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons. The Cubs are 4-1 in Wood's last 5 starts vs. National League Central. opponents. The Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter. Take the Cubs Saturday.

MLB | May 25 '13 (7:15p) Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals

Philadelphia Phillies +140 at BetOnline

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies +140 The Philadelphia Phillies get the call Saturday as a big road underdog to the Washington Nationals. Given the edge the Phillies have on the mound in this one, they should not be the dog at all. Jonathan Pettibone remains one of the most underrated starters in the league given this line. The right-hander has gone 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA through six starts this season, and the Phillies are 5-1 in those contests. Dan Haren is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. The veteran right-hander is clearly past his prime, going 4-5 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.431 WHIP through nine starts this season. He just gave up 7 earned runs and 11 base runners over 5 innings in his last start at San Diego on May 19th. Haren is 0-3 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.409 WHIP in four career starts against Philadelphia. His teams are 0-4 in those four contests, so he has never beaten the Phillies. We'll take this 100% never lost trend straight to the bank tonight. Roll with the Phillies Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ATS Lock Club

3 Units Rangers/Bruins Under 5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

5Lines

Total Line for 05/25/2013
(Won last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
MLB - Seattle Mariners : u6.5
Cost: -110

Run Line for 05/25/2013
(Won last 2 games and cancellation yesterday due to weather) ***THE WEBSITE INCORRECTLY CLAIMS THEY WON LAST 3 GAMES***
Today's Winning Team is:
MLB - Chicago White Sox : -1.5
Cost: -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc's Sports

3-unit Play Take #906 Milwaukee Brewers (-125) over Pittsburgh Pirates (4:10pm ET) Not all trends in baseball mean anything, but today we have one that is worth looking at. Since 2006, the Pittsburgh Pirates are just 10-50 in their 60 games in Miller Park. That is the worst such mark of any team versus any other team away from home during that span. These are just two strong home teams, so it makes some sense that the Brewers have done really well against the Pirates and can expect the domination to continue. Two fairly weak starting pitchers square off in this one, so I'm expecting this game to be decided more by the offenses than anything else. The Brewers and Pirates have scored about the same number of runs this season, but Milwaukee hits much better against left-handers and they are facing southpaw Jeff Locke today. The Brewers have a potent lineup that may feature three All-Stars this summer - Ryan Braun, Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez. Don't forget that they also have Aramis Ramirez and Rickie Weeks as well. This one could turn into a slug fest and I like the Brewers chances to outslug the Pirates if that's the case. Take Milwaukee at a very acceptable price given the history.

5-unit Play Take #908 Washington Nationals (-145) over Philadelphia Phillies (7:15pm ET) The season is not quite playing out like the Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies wanted so far. Both teams have been hovering around .500 for the entire 2013 campaign and haven't been able to get any type of run going. But I think these teams are about to start heading in different directions. The Phillies are a veteran team that lacks depth and needs everyone to stay healthy to compete. But in the last few weeks they've lost ace Roy Halladay, starting catcher and leader Carlos Ruiz and the heart and soul of the team in Chase Utley. These are the backbones of this ballclub and there's no telling what kind of effort you're going to see from this team going forward. Even Ryan Howard hasn't been 100% lately, leaving this team really struggling to score any runs in recent games. Today they'll go up against Dan Haren, who has been a bit shaky in his first season with the Nationals. However, he has been very unlucky in several of his starts as far as the amount of hits given up with runners in scoring position and hits that have fallen in. His K/BB ratio is actually very good and his velocity is even better than it was in the last couple of seasons. Haren should be better going forward, just like the rest of the Nationals. This team has really been scuffling since the pressure was put on them as the team to beat in the National League in the preseason. But this team has too many every day players heading into their primes to be struggling, so it's just a funk that won't last all season. The Nats have also suffered with several injuries to Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth, Wilson Ramos and Danny Espinosa. But I think they are at about rock bottom at the moment, as the pressure has subsided and the team gets refocused. Today's a good day to put up a crooked number as they go up against rookie right-hander Jonathan Pettibone. Take Washington here as our 5-unit Game of the Week selection.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman

8-Unit Play. Take #905 Pittsburgh (+115) over Milwaukee (4 p.m., Saturday, May 25)

This one is my National League Game of the Year. I love this play. The Pirates lost last night and they have had bad luck against the Brewers. But they will get it turned around today. This team has gone 11-1 after scoring two runs or less in the previous game and they are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Pittsburgh is 21-10 in their last 31 Saturday games and they are 13-5 in Game 2 of a series. I noticed this team loses in Game 1 of series a lot. But then they come back and take Game 2 and Game 3. That is what happened the last time these two met two weeks ago. I think that will happen here.

The main thing today is to bet against Michael Fiers. This kid does not look good. He does not have good stuff and he is just 1-4 in his last five starts. He has a 10.80 ERA in his last three starts and a 5.93 ERA on the season. Fiers has been pitching out of the bullpen and is making the spot start here after losing his spot in the rotation. Teams have been hitting him hard whenever he gets called on. The Pirates will hit him hard.

The Pirates are going with Jeff Locke. This young lefty is sharp. He is 4-1 on the year and he has a 2.73 ERA. And he has been improving. His last three starts he has given up just four runs. And he shut down the Brewers in a win on May 14. He has five of six quality starts and has been great on the road. Locke is 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA road ERA this year and the Brewers are struggling against left-handed pitching.

The Brewers are 3-13 in divisional games and they are 3-8 in their last 11 home games. The Brewers have won just five of their last 21 games overall and they are just 1-7 as a favorite. This is not a very good team and I think they are going to get beaten again today.

Take the Pirates.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover | MLB ML - Saturday, May 25 2013 4:05PM
ML 902 SFG (-124) 5Dimes vs 901 COL triple-dime bet

Stephen Nover | NBA Sides - Saturday, May 25 2013 9:05PM
509 SAN 5.5(-110) Hilton vs 510 MEM double-dime bet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ANDRE GOMES

NBA - 509 San Antonio Spurs @ 510 Memphis Grizzlies

Projected Lines: 183 points Memphis by 2 points

Both teams had very inconsistent performances on this game. San Antonio had some phases of pure offensive domination, where their baskets would be the result of good looks, with no contested shots. On Game 1, they dished 28 assists for 40 FG made and on this game, they had 29 assists and 36 FG made for an absurd 80.5 A/rate%! The Spurs were superb in passing the ball: drive and kicks to the shooters, great passes for the open frontcourt player on pick and rolls, you name it! So, no wonder that San Antonio shot 9-10 FG 1.82 PPP on cuts and 11-22 FG 1.33 PPP on spot ups, after having had 15-27 and 1.50 PPP on spot ups on Game 1! The problem for the Spurs was that they struggled on keeping their focus in some moments. Their offense went awol and they couldn't score a single point on the last 4:24 of the first quarter and they scored just 2 points on the last 8:11 of the fourth quarter! If we add these two periods, it was like the Spurs scored just 2 points for a whole quarter!


Memphis tried since early on to put Zach Randolph in evidence on the game, in such a way that their offense lost all its flow. Mike Conley got in early foul trouble and he is the key for his team's offense. But the truth is that Memphis ended up having way better numbers on post ups (17% volume and 0.65 PPP) on Game 2, after having just 11% volume and 0.33 PPP on Game 1. Memphis's starting lineup has been struggling on offense, as Tony Allen and Tayshaun Prince bring no threat on the perimeter with their poor shooting, especially Prince who shot 9-31 FG on the last 5 games! San Antonio's defense can then focus on Mike Conley, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, so if one of Prince or Allen is on court brings an edge to the Spurs' defense, let alone when both are on court at the same time! This is why Coach Hollins made a great adjustment: he benched Prince, who played just 16 minutes on Game 2! Quincy Pondexter played on Prince's position for 37 minutes, something that gives thew Grizzlies a much bigger threat on the mid-range shooting to the Grizzlies. In fact, the Grizzlies had their best moment on Game 2 when they presented the following lineup: Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, Quincy Pondexter, Jerryd Bayless and Mike Conley! I believe the Grizzlies will continue insisting on this lineup to try to be competitive on this series.


On the other side, Tim Duncan was limited due to foul trouble on Game 2 and he played just 31 minutes. But during that span, San Antonio outscored Memphis by 22 points! On the other side, Mike Conley was also limited to 35 minutes due to foul trouble, but with him on court, the Grizzlies outscored the Spurs by 1 point! It would have been interesting to check the final score of this game if these two players hadn't been in foul trouble!


Now onto tonight's game. There was a 3 days span between the Game 2 and 3 of this series and this is unusual. The long rest will benefit both offenses, as their best players will come with fresh legs. I quickly remember that Tony Parker had these extra days for example to heal his calf injury. I referred that on Game 2, Memphis would be more concerned on making defensive adjustments as they didn't have time between the Games 1 and 2 of this series to make offensive adjustments. But for tonight's Game 3, I expect Memphis to show some new adjustments on their tactics, especially in being more effective in putting the ball on Zach Randolph down low. I expect the Grizzlies to be much more aggressive at home and therefore this will give them more free throw attempts! Memphis had just 6 FT attempts on the first half of Game 2, just to have 14 attempts only on the third quarter! This was the key for the Grizzlies to score 33 points on that quarter! They eventually had a total of 20 FT attempts on the second half. The Grizzlies are attempting 32.2 FT/game at home on these playoffs, while they have just 27.8 FT/game on the road, so I expect them to indeed come quite aggressive on their first home game of this series.


The fact that the backcourt lineup formed by Mike Conley, Jerryd Bayless and Quincy Pondexter worked so well on Game 2 will make Hollins insert this lineup really soon on tonight's game if the Grizzlies' staring unit starts showing offensive struggles once again. Mike Conley was in foul trouble on Game 2, but on the 35 minutes that he played, he was able to produce a remarkable 117 offensive rating, while being the only starter that attempts some treys: 2-5! If we combine all these factors, then Memphis has all the conditions to have a better overall offensive game that they had on the first two games of this series, as I even doubt that the Grizzlies will shoot once again 2-12 FG on offensive rebound plays!


The problem for the Grizzlies is that San Antonio's offense has been a legit threat on this series. They dished 28 and 29 assists on the first two games of this series, something that shows the clear amount of good looks that the Spurs are having on this series. A rested Tony Parker is playing at a MVP level and San Antonio is more than ready to explore Memphis's problems on pick and roll defense, especially with the lack of speed from Zach Randolph. San Antonio's role players are all confident and they are also shooting well right now. Kawhi Leonard, Tiago Splitter, Danny Green, Matt Bonner and Boris Diaw are all showing good flow and they aren't hiding themselves from the game. On a rested spot like this one, I expect San Antonio to be super competitive, as even though Memphis will improve their offensive performance tonight, San Antonio's great ball movement will generate a lot of good looks that will certainly create points for them. The Spurs are 4-1 SU & ATS on the road on this postseason, with their only loss being at overtime, so I expect the Spurs to be competitive once again tonight, on a surprisingly relatively high scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking both San Antonio and the Over tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Over 178.5
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509 San Antonio Spurs (+5)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ACCU-SCORE MLB

ML-Home Wins 55 to 59.9% 85-45, 65.4% +1872 -

PHI 907 vs WAS 908 -- Over 50% on Washington Nationals -148
NYY 923 vs TB 924 -- Over 50% on Tampa Bay Rays -165

ML-Home Wins 45 to 49.9% 66-46, 58.9% +1847 -

LAA 919 vs KC 920 -- Over 50% on Los Angeles Angels +118
STL 909 vs LAD 910 -- Over 50% on St. Louis Cardinals -106
COL 901 vs SF 902 -- Over 50% on Colorado Rockies +114

4 STAR MONEY LINE 98-61, 61.6% +1367 -

MIA 929 vs CHW 930 -- Over 50% on Chicago White Sox -198
BAL 915 vs TOR 916 -- Over 50% on Toronto Blue Jays -154
CHC 903 vs CIN 904 -- Over 50% on Cincinnati Reds -163

4 STAR TOTALS 91-72, 55.8% +1180 -

MIA 929 vs CHW 930 -- Under 7
LAA 919 vs KC 920 -- Under 9
COL 901 vs SF 902 -- Under 8.5
SD 913 vs ARI 914 -- Under 8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RICH SPORTS

MLB
1* 904 Cin -1 -120
1* 905 Pit +110
1* Bos -1 -130
2.5* 928 Sea -122

NBA
2.5* 510 Mem -4.5 -118

NHL
4* 56 Chic OVER 4.5 -140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vincent Rizzo Sports

MLB DAILY PREMIUM PLAYS

DETROIT-1.5,-119 (1.19U)

ATLANTA-155 (1.55U)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Hondo, who had his mojo working Thursday night, lost it last night in Fenway Pahk where the Tribe fell a whisker short and caused the debt to swell to 290 broglios.

Today, Mr. Aitch expects Wood to chop the Reds’ lumber down to size — 10 units on the Small Bears.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JR ODonnell

MLB Total Sat, 05/25/13 - 7:15 PM

dime bet - 912 NYM / 911 ATL - UNDER 7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Anthony Redd


Saturday's Play


75 Dime selection on the Memphis Grizzlies against the San Antonio Spurs.