5-29-13

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FREDDY WILLS

Wednesday's hot and cold probable starters features a large total of 10 pitchers who have an ERA under 3.00 over their last 3 starts combined. We look for one of those starters to continue his hot streak and get a win in Wednesday's free MLB sports pick below.

Indians (Justin Masterson -125) 1.25* FREE PLAY

The Indians look to Justin Masterson to continue his great pitching as he's posted a 0.86 WHIP and 2.05 ERA over his last three starts, but he has also had success against the Reds. Over the last three years he posts a 2.86 ERA over three starts vs. the Reds while his competition for Wednesday has a 9.30 ERA in 4 starts vs. the Indians in Bronson Arroyo. Masterson has also been dominant at home this year posting a 4-1 record and a 2.47 ERA which is nothing new when you look at his split statistics over his career. I love how Masterson pitched a complete game shutout at home against the Reds last year so his confidence should be sky high and the Indians team has been great at home all year long and have won 7 straight in Cleveland over the in state rivals. The Reds meanwhile have gone just 16-35 in their last 51 inter league games on the road vs. a winning team.

The Reds will still travel and play the game anyway but I think Bronson Arroyo on the mound will mean a victory for the Indians. Indians hitters have hit him hard of late and their bats continue to stay hot. Collectively they have 7 HR and a .860 OPS vs. Arroyo over 96 AB. Cleveland is 10th in OPS vs. RHP while the Reds are 15th. Arroyo also posts a 4.74 ERA during night games while Cleveland's offense has played great during night games ranking 6th in OPS. Here are a look at the other probable hot starters

Notable Hot Starters:
Bronson Arroyo (3-0, 20.1 IP, 1.03 WHIP, 1.33 ERA)
A.J. Burnett (2-1, 22 ip, 0.86 whip, 2.05 ERA)
David Phelps (2-1, 21.1 IP, 1.12 WHIP, 2.53 ERA)
John Lackey (2-1, 17.1 IP, 0.92 WHIP, 2.60 ERA)
Jordan Zimmerman (2-1, 22.2 IP, 0.97 WHIP, 1.99 ERA)
Kris Medlen (2-1, 18.1 IP, 1.42 WHIP, 2.95 ERA)
Marco Estrada (3-0, 19.2 IP, 0.97 WHIP, 2.75 ERA)
Brandon McCarthy (2-1, 24 IP, 0.79 WHIP, 0.38 ERA)
Tyler Chatwood (3-0, 17.2 IP, 1.19 WHIP, 0.51 ERA)

Notable Cold Starters:
Roberto Hernandez (2-1, 12 IP, 2.00 WHIP, 9.00 ERA)

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MLB Top 4: Bankroll busters on the rise

Two of the big spenders this MLB offseason weren’t seeing an immediate return on investment, with the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays plummeting to the bottom of their respective divisions as well as the MLB money rankings

However, the Halos and Jays have picked themselves up in recent games and could start playing to their potential. Jumping on those clubs, as well as two other teams on the rise, presents some serious value before the market adjusts:

Los Angeles Angels (23-28, 8-1 last nine games)

The Angels were the worst bet in baseball for most of the season but an eight-game winning streak and the impending return of ace Jered Weaver has Los Angeles rounding into form. The Halos are hitting .320 in the past seven days, heading into Tuesday, and averaged more than 7.3 runs during the eight-game winning run.

Toronto Blue Jays (22-29, 4-2 last six games)

Toronto has also turned up the intensity on offense in recent outings. The Jays are batting a collective .299 and have scored 52 total runs in their last seven games – most in the majors. This current stretch is a small sample size but Toronto proved it can contend by winning the series opener with Atlanta. New pitchers R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle are also beginning to settle in.

Chicago White Sox (24-25, 5-2 last seven games)

The White Sox’s recent stretch has them right in the middle of the heated AL Central race. The ChiSox benefited from a visit by the Marlins but also took two over the Red Sox last week. Chicago finished April with a 10-15 record but has gradually picked up the slack in May thanks to steady pitching and a promising bullpen. Ace Chris Sale is also back on the mound after an injury scare this week.

Los Angeles Dodgers (21-28, 4-3 last seven games)

A 4-3 span isn’t going to make anyone rich, especially when you consider the Dodgers have already burned bettors for -13.89 units – most in the National League. However, L.A. faithful got their money’s worth Monday, with the team fighting back from a 6-1 deficit, beating the Angels 8-7. It was a ballsy win, one manager Don Mattingly desperately needs. Adrian Gonzalez is flexing his muscles at the plate and Hanley Ramirez is inching close to a return.

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Spurs' NBA title odds were available as big as 18-1
By JASON LOGAN

The San Antonio Spurs’ NBA Championship odds could be bought as high as 18-1 this offseason, with many books considering them over the hill, especially against the likes of the youthful Oklahoma City Thunder and the talent-loaded Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference.

But, as one Las Vegas oddsmaker told Covers earlier this season, “Any time you bet on the Spurs, you have a great chance of going deep into the playoffs.”

San Antonio has done just that, dropping the Lakers in four straight games, edging the Golden State Warriors in six, and sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in the conference championship to advance to the NBA Finals for the fourth time in the last 11 seasons.

The Spurs are now as low as +200 to win the NBA title, behind the defending champion Miami Heat (-300), who are still duking it out with the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference finals. Most sportsbooks are happy San Antonio is in the finals and will be cheering for them if they do meet Miami.

“As most books are, we are heavy on Miami money from the whole season,” Aron Black of Bet365.com told Covers. “Action on San Antonio has picked up in playoffs, but I have kept them on our side for the last four months. They are always a play for many future bettors, who see a solid and very experienced unit.

“The price on them coming into this season was +1,800, which was mainly due to age. Though they’re very experienced, I’m not sure many would have thought they could play as well as they have, given their preseason prices.”

We take a look back at the Spurs’ NBA futures odds (courtesy of the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas) and how books adjusted those prices over the course of the season:

July 9, 2012 – Spurs +1,000
Odds open for the 2012-13 season and San Antonio is tied with Chicago as the fourth-overall favorite.

October 2, 2012 – Spurs +1,200
With the season just under a month away and the Lakers adding Dwight Howard and Steve Nash, San Antonio jumps to 12-1.

January 7, 2013 – Spurs +700
San Antonio runs out to a 27-10 start, including a stellar 14-2 record at home.

January 14, 2013 – Spurs +600
San Antonio defeats the Lakers at home on Jan. 9 and rolls off 11 straight wins between Jan. 13 and Feb. 6 despite missing Manu Ginobili (hamstring) for six games in that stretch.

February 4, 2013 – Spurs +400
San Antonio is 38-11 overall and has still only lost two games at home, boasting a 22-2 record inside the AT&T Center.

February 25, 2013 – Spurs +400
San Antonio briefly went to +500 with Oklahoma City and the Los Angeles Clippers putting together strong runs in the middle of the month and Tim Duncan missing time with ankle and knee issues. However, losing just once in a 17-game span, including a road victory over the Clippers, trims the Spurs’ futures.

March 11, 2013 – Spurs +500
The Lakers, Nuggets and Thunder all move up the NBA futures board pushing San Antonio to 5-1. Tony Parker goes down with an ankle injury but Spurs go 6-2 SU in 8 games without him.

April 6, 2013 – Spurs +600
Ginobili misses another block of games due to a lingering hamstring injury and San Antonio goes 3-6 SU without him, including suffering its first three-game losing skid of the season heading into the playoffs.

April 22, 2013 – Spurs +1,000
San Antonio opens first round of the playoffs versus Kobe-less Lakers and rolls L.A. in a four-game series sweep.

April 29, 2013 – Spurs +700
San Antonio clashes with upstart Golden State in the second round of the postseason. Split the first four games with the Warriors before winning two straight to advance to the Western Conference finals.

May 19, 2013 – Spurs +600
San Antonio meets Memphis in the conference championship, with Grizzlies set as slight series favorites. Spurs win first three games, including two in overtime.

May 27, 2013 – Spurs +250
San Antonio sweeps Memphis in four straight games to advance to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2007. Spurs bring a six-game winning streak into finals.

May 28, 2013 – Spurs +200
San Antonio is as low as 2-1 to win the NBA title, behind Miami at -300 at some books. Spurs would be a +230 series underdogs versus Miami (-270) and -250 series favorites versus Indiana (+210) in NBA Finals.

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Feldman is 4-1, 2.21 in his last six starts.
-- Burnett has a 2.57 RA in his last five starts.
-- Lackey is 2-0, 1.38 in his last two starts.
-- Bronx is 4-1 when Phelps starts (2-1, 3.27).
-- Zimmerman is 5-1, 1.35 in his last six starts. Tillman is 3-1, 2.81 in his last five starts.

-- Arroyo is 3-0, 1.33 in his last three starts. Masterson is 3-1, 2.48 in his last four outings.
-- Medlen has a 2.57 RA in his last three home starts.
-- Koehler is 0-2, 3.18 in three starts this season; Marlins scored six runs in his three starts.
-- McCarthy is 2-0, 0.36 in his last three starts.
-- Estrada is 2-0, 2.75 in his last three starts.

-- Lynn is 5-1, 2.15 in his last seven starts.
-- Chatwood is 3-0, 0.51 in his last three starts.
-- Stults is 3-1, 1.75 in his last four starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Danks allowed three runs in six IP in his first '13 start.
-- ASanchez is 0-3, 7.04 in his last three road starts.
-- Kendrick is 0-2, 7.36 in his last couple starts.
-- Mets are 0-9 when Hefner starts (0-2, 5.32 in last four).

-- Rogers started 22 big league games with Colorado (last in '11); he is 1-2, 4.56 in 25 IP in relief for Toronto this season.
-- Hernandez is 0-1, 15.00 in his last two starts.
-- Grimm is 2-3, 5.46 in his last five starts.
-- Deduno allowed six runs in 5.1 IP in his first '13 start.

-- Mendoza is 1-1, 6.00 in his last five starts.
-- Bedard is 0-3, 7.57 in his last seven starts.
-- Capuano is 1-3, 6.84 in five starts this season. Weaver was 0-1, 4.91 in two starts before going on the DL; this is his first start back.
-- Saunders is 1-2, 7.48 in his last four starts.
-- Milone is 0-3, 5.96 in his last four road starts. Lincecum is 1-3, 5.19 in his last four starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Danks 0-1; Feldman 2-9
-- Sanchez 2-10; Burnett 3-11
-- Lackey 2-7; Kendrick 4-10
-- Hefner 5-9; Phelps 1-5
-- Zimmerman 1-10; Tillman 2-10

-- Arroyo 1-10; Masterson 2-11
-- Rogers 0-0; Medlen 2-10
-- Hernandez 2-9; Koehler 1-3
-- McCarthy 4-10; Grimm 4-8
-- Estrada 1-10; Deduno 0-1

-- Mendoza 1-6; Lynn 2-10
-- Bedard 5-8; Chatwood 1-4
-- Capuano 1-5; Weaver 1-2
-- Saunders 2-10; Stults 1-10
-- Milone 5-10; Lincecum 4-10

Totals
-- Over is 10-2-1 in Baltimore's last thirteen games.
-- Seven of last ten Pirate games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 8-3-2 in last thirteen Cleveland games.
-- Last three Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Eight of last twelve Kansas City games stayed under the total.

-- Seven of last nine Colorado games stayed under the total.
-- 23 of last 29 Tampa Bay games went over the total.
-- Eight of last twelve Oakland games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last eight Seattle games went over the total.

-- Five of last seven Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Boston games.
-- Nine of Mets' last twelve games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 3-0-3 in White Sox' last six games.
-- Five of last seven Dodger games went over the total.

Hot teams
-- Pirates won 11 of their last 14 games. Detroit won six of its last eight.
-- Reds won 14 of their last 17 games.
-- Twins won three of their last four games.
-- Cardinals won 20 of their last 26 games.
-- Colorado won five of its last six home games.
-- Rays won their last three games, scoring 25 runs.
-- A's won 10 of their last 11 games. San Francisco won seven of its last nine home games.
-- Atlanta won nine of its last eleven games.
-- Red Sox won five of their last seven games.
-- Mets won their last three games, allowing four runs.
-- White Sox won nine of their last thirteen games.
-- Angels won eight of their last ten games. Dodgers won three of four.

Cold teams
-- Indians lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Orioles lost seven of their last nine home games. Washington lost four of its last five home games.
-- Brewers lost 11 of their last 14 games.
-- Royals lost 11 of their last 12 games.
-- Astros lost four of their last five games.
-- Marlins lost 17 of their last 20 games.
-- Padres lost five of their last seven games. Mariners lost nine of last eleven.
-- Toronto lost five of its last seven road games.
-- Phillies lost three of their last five games.
-- Bronx lost five of their last seven games.
-- Cubs lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Dodgers are 3-8 in game following their last eleven wins.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hockey Crusher
Detroit Red Wings + Chicago Blackhawks UNDER 5
(System Record: 71-3, lost last game)
Overall Record: 71-49-4

Baseball Crusher
Cincinnati Reds + Cleveland Indians UNDER 8
(System Record: 27-4, won last game)
Overall Record: 27-32-1

Soccer Crusher
Newells Old Boys + Boca Juniors OVER 2
This match is happening in Conmebol
(System Record: 402-15, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 402-353-49

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DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

05/29/13 Prediction

Season: 314-194 (.618)

Western Conference Semifinals
Game #7
CHICAGO 3, Detroit 2

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1037-772 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner WED over 8 Mets/Yanks

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Wednesday

Red Sox -110

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Hondo

Phillies
Cardinals

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Joe Wiz

Free Play Wednesday San Diego/Seattle Under 8

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Today's MLB Picks

Detroit at Pittsburgh

The Pirates look to follow up yesterday's 1-0 win and build on their 12-1 record in their last 13 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Pittsburgh is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+100). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, MAY 29 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 15.623; Cubs (Feldman) 14.616 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-130); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+110); N/A

Game 903-904: Detroit at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 15.773; Pittsburgh (Burnett) 16.690 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 7 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+100); Over

Game 905-906: Boston at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lackey) 15.666; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 14.741 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-110); 8 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-110); Over

Game 907-908: NY Mets at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Hefner) 14.863; NY Yankees (Phelps) 16.210 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-160); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-160); Under

Game 909-910: Washington at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Zimmermann) 15.750; Baltimore (Tillman) 16.565 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Baltimore (-110); 8 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-110); Under

Game 911-912: Cincinnati at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.712; Cleveland (Masterson) 13.547 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2; 9 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-135); 8 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+115); Over

Game 913-914: Toronto at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Rogers) 15.897; Atlanta (Medlen) 17.449 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-185); 8 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-185); Over

Game 915-916: Tampa Bay at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Hernandez) 15.818; Miami (Koehler) 13.434 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-145); 8 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-145); Under

Game 917-918: Arizona at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (McCarthy) 15.470; Texas (Grimm) 15.149 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+120); Under

Game 919-920: Milwaukee at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Estrada) 13.249; Minnesota (Deduno) 14.110 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+105); Over

Game 921-922: Kansas City at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Mendoza) 13.687; St. Louis (Lynn) 16.240 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-200); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-200); Under

Game 923-924: Houston at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Bedard) 14.793; Colorado (Chatwood) 13.913 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 11 Vegas Line: Colorado (-200); 10 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+170); Over

Game 925-926: LA Dodgers at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Capuano) 16.848; LA Angels (Weaver) 15.806 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 9 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-185); 8 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+165); Over

Game 927-928: Seattle at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Saunders) 14.046; San Diego (Stults) 15.651 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: San Diego (-145); 8 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-145); Under

Game 929-930: Oakland at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Milone) 16.450; San Francisco (Lincecum) 14.997 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-130); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+110); Over

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Today's NHL Picks

Detroit at Chicago

The Blackhawks look to close out the series and take advantage of a Detroit team that is 1-5 in its last 6 games in Chicago. Chicago is the pick (-220) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-220). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, MAY 29 Time Posted 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 71-72: Detroit at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.767; Chicago 13.152 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-220); 5 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-220); Under

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Moose picks

from the 70% club:

Boston ml

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Factsman

CIN/CLE Over 8