5-29-13

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PAUL LEINER

100* Over 8.5 Twins/Brewers

50* Cubs -130

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CHASE DIAMOND

8* KILLER CLUB

NY Yankees ML -170

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: New York Mets at New York Yankees (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: New York Mets +1.5 runs -135 (runline)

The New York Yankees let one get away last night as Mariano Rivera proved to be human in blowing his first save after recording 18 straight this season. He also failed to record an out in a save opportunity for the first time ever in his storied career. The Yanks have bigger problems with a dozen disabled players, and a patchwork rotation that is showing signs of catching up to them. The Yankees are on a three-game skid and have won just 4 of their last 11. The Mets enter at 9-2 in their last 11 interleague games vs. the AL East, and are 5-0 in their last five interleague road games. Things are getting tough for the Yankees, so play the Mets on the runline.

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J.R Stevens SMOOTH44

ALL ARE TOP-RATED (5-STAR OR 5-UNIT)

MLB

(901) CHI-WHITE SOX +115/RRL -1.5 +180

(904) PITTSBURGH +105/RRL -1.5 +220 ***PLAY OF THE DAY***

(913) TORONTO +165/RRL -1.5 +255

(921) KANSAS CITY +185/RRL -1.5 +275

(925) LA-DODGERS +165/RRL -1.5 +245

"RRL" means "Reverse Runline" or "Alternate Runline"
*Play side and reverse runline equally

*HOUSTON and MIAMI on no-play list until further notice.

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Spartan MLB Money Line Wed, 05/29/13 - 10:10 PM

double-dime bet - 927 SEA (+130) vs 928 SDP

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GoodFella

Wednesday Free MLB Team Total

SAN DIEGO PADRES OVER 4 RUNS

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Goodfella

3 dime baltimore ml

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JACK JONES

MLB Baseball Premium Picks

MLB | May 29 '13 (7:10p) Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves -1½+125 at 5dimes
15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+125) The Atlanta Braves will throttle the Toronto Blue Jays by two-plus runs Wednesday due to the massive edge they have on the mound. That's why I have elected to play the Run Line and get us some more value for our buck. Kris Medlen has been one of the most underrated starters in the league over the past two seasons. He has picked up right where he left off last year, posting a 3.16 ERA over 10 starts in 2013. In fact, Medlen sports a 2.08 ERA and 1.192 WHIP through four home starts this season. Esmil Rogers is no more than a spot starter in this league. He has posted a 4.56 ERA and 1.479 WHIP over 25 2/3 innings out of the bullpen for Toronto this year. He will be making his first start of the season tonight. Rogers has faced the Braves once in his career, giving up 7 earned runs over 1 2/3 innings for a massive 37.72 ERA. Atlanta is 25-6 (+18.7 Units) against the money line after a one run win over the last 2 seasons. It is winning by 2.7 runs/game in this spot. Medlen is 13-0 (+13.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The Braves are winning by a whopping 3.9 runs/game in this spot. Take the Braves on the Run Line Wednesday.

-= TOP PLAY =-

MLB | May 29 '13 (8:05p) Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers -129 at 5dimes
25* Interleague GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas Rangers -129 The Texas Rangers Wednesday represent my strongest release in Interleague play for the entire 2013 season. After losing the first two games of this series at Arizona, I look for the Rangers to bounce back with a blowout victory at home in Game 3. Texas gives the ball to Justin Grimm, who is one of the most underrated starters in the league, especially when pitching at home. Grimm has gone 2-1 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.293 WHIP in three home starts in 2013. Brandon McCarthy has struggled in his first season with Arizona. The right-hander has gone 2-3 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.344 WHIP through 10 starts this year. McCarthy is also 2-3 with a 4.05 ERA in nine career starts against Texas. Texas is 8-0 (+8.2 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season. The Rangers are 25-6 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss by 2 runs or less over the last 3 seasons. Texas is 19-3 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Rangers Wednesday.

MLB | May 29 '13 (8:10p) Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins	Milwaukee Brewers -108 at 5dimes
15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -108 The Milwaukee Brewers are hungry for a victory tonight to put an end to their 4-game losing streak. That includes back-to-back losses to the Minnesota Twins in the first two games of this series. I like Milwaukee's chances of getting back on the winning track given the edge it has on the mound in this one. Marco Estrada has gone 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in five road starts, and 2-0 with a 2.75 ERA and 0.966 WHIP in his last three starts overall. Sam Deduno has only made one start this season for Minnesota, and it wasn't pretty. He allowed six earned runs and 12 base runners over 5 1/3 innings of a 6-0 loss at Detroit on May 24th. The Brewers are 4-1 in Estrada's last 5 road starts. The Twins are 1-11 in their last 12 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Minnesota is 0-5 in its last 5 home games overall. The Twins are 0-5 in Deduno's last 5 starts as an underdog. These four trends combine for a 25-2 system backing Milwaukee. Roll with the Brewers Wednesday.

MLB | May 29 '13 (8:15p) Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals	Kansas City Royals +180 at BetOnline
15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +180 The Kansas City Royals are showing perhaps their best value of the season tonight as nearly a 2-to-1 road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals. Losers of seven straight coming in, there's no question that the Royals are hungry for a victory tonight, especially after losing the first two games of this series. Luis Mendoza has pitched admirably of late, going 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his last three starts for the Royals. That's impressive considering he has been up against the Angels twice and the A's, which boast two of the best lineups in baseball. Mendoza is also 1-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.125 WHIP over four road starts. Lance Lynn has put together a solid season thus far for St. Louis, but he also got off to a fast start last year before blowing up. Lynn also faced the Royals once last year, giving up 6 earned runs and three homers over 5 1/3 innings. In his lone career start at St. Louis, Mendoza allowed just 2 earned runs over 6 innings of a 5-3 victory in 2012. Kansas City is a very profitable 32-36 (+19.8 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 or more over the last 3 seasons. The Royals are also a solid 27-26 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Royals Wednesday.

MLB | May 29 '13 (10:10p) Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres

Seattle Mariners +146 at BetOnline

15* MLB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle Mariners +146 The Seattle Mariners are showing solid value as a nice-sized road underdog to the San Diego Padres tonight. The Padres have no business being this heavily favored with Eric Stults on the mound. Stults is no ace like this line would indicate. The left-hander is 4-4 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.307 WHIP through 10 starts this season. I look for the Mariners to tee off on him and to give Joe Saunders, who have struggled for the most part this season, plenty of run support. While Saunders hasn't been at his best, he'll relish the opportunity to face a team that he has dominated in the past. Saunders is 5-3 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in nine career starts against San Diego. In fact, the left-hander has pitched 22 2/3 innings in his last three starts against San Diego without allowing a single earned run! Seattle is 27-13 (+15.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons. The Mariners are 28-12 (+25.3 Units) against the money line after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. Take Seattle Wednesday.

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ACCU-SCORE MLB

ML-Home Wins 55 to 59.9% 90-50, 64.3% +1806

WAS 909 vs BAL 910 -- Over 50% on Baltimore Orioles -109

SV-Home Wins 55 to 59.9% 80-60, 57.1% +2121

WAS 909 vs BAL 910 -- Value on Baltimore Orioles -109

4 STAR MONEY LINE 109-68, 61.6% +1441

NYM 907 vs NYY 908 -- Over 50% on New York Yankees -167
TB 915 vs MIA 916 -- Over 50% on Tampa Bay Rays -147
WAS 909 vs BAL 910 -- Over 50% on Baltimore Orioles -109
SEA 927 vs SD 928 -- Over 50% on San Diego Padres -158
HOU 923 vs COL 924 -- Over 50% on Colorado Rockies -220

4 STAR TOTALS 98-77, 56% +1330

NYM 907 vs NYY 908 -- Under 8.5
ARI 917 vs TEX 918 -- Under 9.5
DET 903 vs PIT 904 -- Under 7
KC 921 vs STL 922 -- Under 8
OAK 929 vs SF 930 -- Under 7.5
TB 915 vs MIA 916 -- Under 8

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Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates

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Danny B

Indians

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Dave Essler

3* Pittsburgh

Baltimore

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CHRIS JORDAN

300* Pirates +100 (list Burnett and Sanchez)

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Indian Cowboy

3-Unit Play. #913. Take Over 8 runs Toronto vs. Atlanta (Wednesday @ 7:10pm est).

After a 7-6 Tuesday victory by the visiting Atlanta Braves, both teams travel south as the Bluejays face the Braves in Atlanta. Tuesday's game was a typical Atlanta Braves game as the long ball was the X-Factor. After a first inning full of walks, singles, doubles and errors, there were already 7 runs on the board as Toronto lead 4-3. We believe the long ball will be helpful in getting us a winning selection in this spot as Atlanta has hit 30 homers in Turner Field while Toronto has 29 homers on the road. With Toronto having revenge from yesterday's loss, look for them to step up as an active underdog today. I like the fact that I think Toronto will do well in this contest and consequently the Braves will have to stage their usual mid inning come back which will likely push this game over the posted total. Kris Medlen (1-5) this season is not the same pitcher yet as he was last year, Medlen is 0-2 at home and has allowed 21 hits, 10 walks and 6 ER's. Atlanta is averaging 5.1 runs per game over their last 10 games overall and 4.9 runs per game at home their last 10. While Toronto averages 6.0 runs per game their last 10 overall and 4.1 runs per game their last 10 on the road. With both pitchers having shown a tendency to struggle as of late, the possibility that they both continue to swing the bat well makes an over a possibility on the short line here this evening. The Over is 9-1 for the Blue Jays when they face a pitcher with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and the Over is 4-1 for the Braves when they face an Interleague team with a losing record.

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Doc's Sports

4-unit Play Take #905 Boston Red Sox (-115) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (7:05pm ET) If you're looking for early candidates on the Comeback Player of the Year Award, John Lackey might be a good place to start. The 33-year old veteran has battled injuries the last two seasons, but he's finally healthy and looking like his old self. In seven starts in 2013, Lackey has posted a 2.72 ERA and 1.13 WHIP and is striking out more than a batter per inning. His velocity is checking in where it was in years past and his confidence appears to be back. He'll face a depleted Philadelphia Phillies squad today that is without team leaders Chase Utley and Carlos Ruiz. Ryan Howard also isn't 100%, leaving the Phils without much firepower. Kyle Kendrick pitches in this one. He's had a decent season so far, but his last two starts have not been very good. In his last two outings he has only three strikeouts and eight walks in 11 innings of work. Both were losses and he gave up a combined nine earned runs. Those were his two worst starts of the season, so something may be a little off with Kendrick's mechanics. Boston is the better team in just about every respect and they have the better starting pitcher today. That puts us on the Red Sox at this short price.

3-unit Play Take #930 San Francisco Giants (-125) vs. Oakland A's (10:15pm ET) The San Francisco Giants and Oakland A's shift their series to AT&T Park on Wednesday night. Right-hander Tim Lincecum goes up against southpaw Tommy Milone in what should be a good game. Lincecum has pitched much better than his 4.75 ERA indicates. His biggest problem has been his control and avoiding the big inning. He's striking out 9.5 batters per nine innings and is getting enough groundballs, so I think he can overcome the occasional walk with the kind of stuff he has. His mound presence has also been a lot better than it was last season. The Giants have been swinging the bats well and are the best offense in the National League on a park-adjusted basis. They should be able to give Milone some problems, as he's a much different pitcher away from home. He had some of the biggest home/road splits last season and that's carried forward into this season. Both of these teams have good team chemistry and send out two capable starters to the hill today. I just like this Giants team more than the A' s and prefer Lincecum at home to Milone on the road. San Francisco is the play.

Best of Luck - Doc's Sports