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BIG AL's 100% (10-0) FRIDAY NITE FOOTBALL CRUSHER
3* Bowling Green
3* Bowling Green
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Re: 11-21-08
Brandon Lang
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5 Dime 6-Point Teaser Buffalo and Over - Real going real light with this one tonight, as the big play is on the 40-Dimer for Saturday. This is just to whet the appetite.
And there's no better way than a teaser in the MAC with the Over. That's generally a safe bet - the over on a tease - and we'll get it done with a Buffalo team that could win the Mid-American Conference East with a victory tonight.
The Bulls come into this one riding a four-game winning streak, and how sweet will it be to nab the East with a win over Bowling Green, the preseason pick to win the MAC East. And quite frankly, I love what my boy Turner Gill has done with the Bulls. He's coached this team into a confident program that can get it done on both sides of the ball.
Tailback James Starks had a huge performance against Akron and ranks fifth nationally with 128.5 rushing yards per game to lead the offense, while Justin Winters is tied for 26th in the country with 9 tackles per game.
Plenty of motivation on our side, tease the dog and play the over.
FREE - San Jose StateComment
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Re: 11-21-08
Dr. Bob
Friday 3 Star Selection
***BOWLING GREEN (-3.5) 33 Buffalo 20
03:00 PM Pacific, 21-Nov-08
I went against Buffalo last week with a Best Bet on Akron -3 and that game went just like I thought it would with the Zips averaging 6.6 yards per play while Buffalo was held in check at 5.0 yppl. The problem was 2 lost fumbles by Akron and zero turnovers by Buffalo and the Zips lost in 4 overtimes despite clearly being the better team from the line of scrimmage. Buffalo has been pretty lucky this year in being +11 in fumbles lost margin, recovering 16 opponent's fumbles and losing just 5 all season. My research shows that fumbles are 90% random in college football, as only 10% of past fumble margin is predictive. That means that Buffalo isn't likely to be getting 3 ½ points randomly this game as they've been getting all season (a turnover is worth about 3 ½ points in college football). Bowling Green, by the way, is -4 in fumble margin, so they've had a bit of bad luck and the difference in fumble margin of these two teams has made Buffalo overrated and Bowling Green a bit underrated heading into this game. Bowling Green is favored by 3 ½ points, which is the standard home field advantage in college football, but the Falcons are clearly the better team from the line of scrimmage and are thus likely to win by 4 points or more. Buffalo is pretty good offensively by MAC standards, averaging 5.5 yppl against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Bowling Green, however, is 0.1 yppl better than average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team), so the Falcons have a 0.2 yppl edge when Buffalo has the ball. Bowling Green is 0.3 yppl worse than average offensively (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl), but Buffalo's defense has allowed 6.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defense, so Bowling Green has a 0.4 yppl advantage when they're on offense. My math model projects Buffalo with a slight edge in turnovers and the Falcons are better in special teams. My math model gives Bowling Green a 54.5% chance of covering at -3 ½ points, but that percentage is much higher given that Buffalo applies to a very negative 9-51 ATS road letdown situation that has a 60% chance of covering at a fair line. I'll take Bowling Green in a 3-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less and for 2-Stars from -4 ½ to -6 points.Comment
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