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Golden State is allowing 105.3 points per game overall and 106.8 points per game at home this season. Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Pacific. Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Bulls are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference. Bulls are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Bulls are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 games following a SU loss. Warriors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Warriors are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 home games. Warriors are 15-36 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU win. Warriors are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Warriors are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. We'll play Chicago for 3 units tonight!
College Football
Fresno State -3.5 over San Jose State
The Spartans got a lot of hype earlier this season when they played Boise at home and they never had a shot in that game. Fresno was projected to be a top team in the WAC, but injuries have slowed them down. Both teams have a ton of injuries, but the coaching and experience is on the side of Fresno. San Jose simply cannot score. Fresno's defense stinks, but in the end the Bulldogs will be too much offensively. Take Fresno.
10* Take Toledo (-3) over Miami-OH (NCAA Power Play)
7:00 PM EST
Toledo
• 5-0 ATS coming off a two game road trip the last 3 seasons
• 3-0 SU & ATS coming off two consecutive road losses
• 6-1 ATS after having lost 4 of the last 5 games
10* Take Fresno State (-3.5) over San Jose State (NCAA Power Play)
9:30 PM EST
Fresno State
• 12-1 SU vs. San Jose State since 1992
• 3-0 SU coming off an UNDER the total this season
• 15-3 SU coming off a conference win by 7 points or less
Middle Tennessee St. may be thinking major revenge after the Volunteers routed them 109-40 last season. The Tennessee Volunteers have had no trouble scoring in their first two outings, ripping Tennessee Chattanooga 114-75 and pasting Tennessee Martin 91-64. The Volunteers have won 6 straight over the Blue Raiders, with the last 4 wins being by double digits. Let's not forget the the Volunteers are the number 14 ranked team in the country and that the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders have lost 18 straight to ranked opponents dating back to 1996. The Volunteers roll in their first road test of the season.
Take the Tennessee Volunteers -10 1/2 for 4-Units.
Trends worth Considering:
Volunteers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Volunteers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Sun Belt.
Blue Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Blue Raiders are 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.
In order to elaborate a pick, as I’ve referred before, I need 3 essential factors which together give me enough confidence to make a play: emotional edge, matchups edge and value on the line. We have in here a case where the 3 factors together favor an high affair game and we have also a very good price in here. Both the Pacers and Magic are coming from good wins. The Pacers easily defeated the Hawks by 113-96, while Orlando defeated the Raptors by 103-90. So, we are in front of two teams that are without confidence and which will try to play a good game today. Both teams like to play on a fast tempo game trying to spread the floor on the offense. For some reason, Orlando is the second on the league in 3pts attempts, with 24.7 per game and the Pacers are fifth with 20.0 attempts, so it will be normal that we will see some 3pts shots being made tonight, as with both teams being confident, it won’t hard for them to score some of those attempts.
On the other side, the presence of Dwight Howard will make the Pacers set up an even higher than usual pace, having in account the team just can’t stop him. I remember Howard had 26-39 FG against the Pacers last season! 66.6% FG! And Howard will come fired up for this game, as he hasn’t been playing well lately. He had the worst game of his career against the Bobcats (foul trouble the whole game) and against the Raptors, he was well defended by Bosh and O’Neal. The Pacers don’t have any solutions to stop Howard and the team is actually coming from a game where they allowed just 28 points against the Hawks in the paint. But you have to note that Josh Smith was out, Al Horford played for just 7 minutes and Marvin Williams is now more an outside shooter. That won’t happen tonight for sure, with Howard in the court.
The Pacers last season had to raise the pace of their game against the Magic, in order to be competitive and the result of that was the three games of the series ending with 224, 236 and 233 points. Today this game will have the same conditions and only a very bad night in terms of FG% will prevent both teams from scoring more than 100 points each. At last, we have the question of the value. We are talking about a game which line was at 205.5 points and now we can find it just a little bit above 200 points, so I’m taking the over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Regular Play) on 505/506 Over 201,5 @1.97 on 5Dimes
San Jose St is in a 40-16 ATS System that says to Play On any team who is off a conference loss by 21 or more points if they have won between 51% to 60% of their games this year. The Spartans are 11-3 ATS their last 14 lined home games. Fresno St is 1-9 ATS in all games this year and they are 0-7 ATS their last 7 games as favorites. The Bulldogs are 0-7 ATS after allowing 17 or more points in the first half of two straight games and they are 0-8 ATS off one or more straight ATS losses. 20* WAC CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH PLAY ON SAN JOSE ST
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