6-6-13

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Ats lock club
4 units-Chicago Blackhawks

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BIG AL's MLB DIVISION GAME OF THE MONTH!

Our Selection: Royals Opponent: Twins Line: -144
Analysis: At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Royals over the Minnesota Twins.
Righthander Mike Pelfrey came to the AL this season after spending his first seven seasons in the Majors with the New York Mets and right about now Pelfrey probably wishes he'd stayed in the NL. Pelfrey had some success with the Mets, including a 15-win season in 2010, but so far his move over to the AL Central and a spot on the Twins rotation has been pretty much a disaster as Pelfrey is just 3-6 with a 6.66 ERA in his first 11 starts. And it just so happens that Pelfrey's worst start since moving to the AL was against the Royals in his second outing of the season in Kansas City when Pelfrey lasted just two innings while surrendering six runs on eight hits. Pelfrey has only 26 strikeouts in 51 1/3 innings and he also has 19 walks for a K-to-BB ratio of just 1.37. Pelfrey was never a top-of-the-rotation guy in the NL, but clearly the addition of having to face a DH almost every start has not helped Pelfrey's numbers this season. Royals righthander Wade Davis doesn't have numbers that seem much better than Pelfrey's but he's had some success at home this year and Davis is 3-0 with a 4.08 ERA in his career vs. the Twins. With their win on Wednesday, the Royals are now 7-2 in the last nine meetings. Take KC.

BIG AL's NBA FINALS GAME 1 TOTALS WINNER!

Our Selection: Spurs/Heat 'Under' Line: 188.5
Analysis: At 9 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the 'under' in Game 1 between the Miami Heat and San Antone Spurs.
Many are questioning whether the Spurs' 9 days off will be a benefit or a curse -- the old 'rest vs. rust' debate. I look at it a little bit differently. I feel it's an advantage, physically, to have this much rest. But that doesn't necessarily translate on the offensive end. One can be well rested, but not in an offensive groove. Outside shots may not fall. However, it will allow one to play defense better. And for both of those reasons, I like to look at the 'unders' when a team is well rested. Indeed, 36 of the last 57 Playoff games (63.1%) have sailed 'under' the total when a team has had at least 5 or more days' of rest following a series win (including nine of 12 in the NBA Finals). And, after seeing how they shut down Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, I have no doubt that the Spurs will have been able to install a solid defensive gameplan with all this time to prepare. Take the 'under.'

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SB Professor Original MLB Late Picks 6/6

910. Los Angeles Dodgers -105
916. Boston Red Sox -126

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Z Money Sports

San Antonio Spurs + 5 1/2
Kansas City/Minnesota under 9

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NBA Finals action report: Books grasp to -5, prop players like Parker

Game 1 of the NBA Finals tips off tonight, with the San Antonio Spurs visiting the defending champion Miami Heat. We examined the early action on Game 1 Wednesday, with money moving the Spurs from +6 to +5 and trimming the series prices.

Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker for CarbonSports.ag, gives us an update on the action and where the line will end up before the 9 p.m. ET tipoff:

San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat – Open: -6, Move: -5

As we reported yesterday, early action leaned toward the Spurs with 65 percent of wagers taking the underdog coming off the extended rest. Books dropped the spread from -6 to -5.5 and eventually -5, where they began to see Miami money come in.

Books are holding firm at -5 and won’t drop to -4.5, knowing sharp bettors would grab up the discount line on the Heat and put the book at risk of being middle if the game finishes on five.

“We've booked dead even, I literally mean to the baby dollar, action on both teams at Heat -5,” Stewart told Covers. “Unless a sharp syndicate comes in and takes a large position on the game, this line isn't moving off of -5.”

According to Stewart, the total has seen solid two-way play since opening at 188.5 and they don’t expect to move off the number before tipoff. There has been, however, some one-sided action on the Game 1 moneyline. San Antonio opened as high as +210 and has been bet down as low as +180 at some markets.

“Where we've seen a bit of exposure is on the moneyline, which is to be expected,” says Stewart. “In big games like this, the public loves taking the dog on the moneyline.”

Sportsbook are also offering numerous props on the NBA Finals for both team, situational and individuals. One prop in particular is attracting the bulk of the action. Spurs guard Tony Parker had his points+rebounds+assists total open at 32.5, which has been bet up to 33 today.

“Parker was playing at such a high level before the Spurs’ nine-day layoff,” says Stewart. “I definitely believe there will be some rust but I also believe the Heat's perimeter defense will make life a bit more difficult for Parker than the Lakers, Warriors, and Grizzlies did in these 2013 playoffs.”

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Doc Sports

5* Spurs +5

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Rob Ferringo

Take Over (4.5) Chicago at Los Angeles (9pm, Thursday, June 6th) (-135)

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Ben Burns

10* Miami Heat

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JACK JONES

MLB Baseball Premium Picks

MLB | Jun 06 '13 (8:10p) Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers	Philadelphia Phillies +130 at 5dimes
15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +130 The Philadelphia Phillies are showing solid value as a nice-sized road underdog to the Milwaukee Brewers. They come in playing some of their best baseball of the season having won four straight while scoring at least 6 runs in each contest to get back to .500 on the season at 30-30. Milwaukee has lost nine of its last 12 coming in and it is clearly distracted due to the Ryan Braun ordeal. Plus, Wily Peralta has no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers. Peralta is 4-6 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.681 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 2-4 with a 7.09 ERA and 1.939 WHIP in seven home starts. Milwaukee is 2-14 (-13.3 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season. The Brewers are 8-25 in their last 33 overall. The Brewers are 0-9 in their last 9 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Take the Phillies Thursday. Note - I returned on a flight from vacation Thursday morning which is why this baseball play has been released later than it normally would be.

MLB | Jun 06 '13 (10:10p) Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers -105 at SIA

15* Braves/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -105 Zach Greinke simply does not lose at home. I'll gladly back Greinke and the Los Angeles Dodgers at this price Thursday because of it. Greinke has gone 2-0 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.149 WHIP in three home starts this season. He'll be up against Tim Hudson, who is 1-4 with a 7.67 ERA and 1.642 WHIP in six road starts this season for Atlanta. Greinke is 31-4 (+25.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons. Greinke is 17-1 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Enough said. Roll with the Dodgers Thursday. Note - I returned on a flight from vacation Thursday morning which is why this baseball play has been released later than it normally would be.

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DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - NBA / NHL - Thursday, June 6th - FINAL REPORT

10 UNIT MEGA-HYDRA
HEAT (-220) TO WIN THE NBA CHAMPIONSHIP

CHYNA-HYDRA (7 UNITS)
HEAT -5 vs spurs (6pm)

LA KINGS (-120) vs blackhawks (6:05pm)

*All Lines from Sportsbook.com 6/5/13 11:58pm
**All times Pacific

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Anthony Redd

NBA Finals Total of the Year
Playoff Total
Winner # 7 of 10
75 Dime Winner # 8 of 13
Spurs/Heat Over

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TMC Sports Advisors

Spurs +5

Rockies -150

Braves -105

A's -125

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LA Syndicate
Thursday Night Top Plays
Braves/Dodgers Under 7
Colorado Rockies

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DHayes

Dodgers -105

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GREG SHAKER NBA Total - Thursday, Jun 6 2013 9:00PM
3* SPURS/ MIAMI OVER 188.5

Analysis: I'm going to try and not bore you with too many stats here but we are going to start with a Few. These 2 teams tonight are the Class of the NBA and both not only can score, they do it by working the ball and making every effort to transition when given the chance. That is why they are Ranked #1 and #2 in EFGE (Effective Field Goal Efficiency) in the NBA. They are also #1 and #7 in Offensive Efficiency and in the Spurs case they are the #7 Top Paced team in this league. When this number came out it was obvious to me that it was too low. We have to remember that each of these squads just played the #1 and #2 Defensive teams in the NBA (Memphis/Indiana) and those teams are ranked #25 and #29 Pace-wise. So, we can't compare the numbers in those games to set our number here. However, that is what the Oddsmakers have done. This number should be 193 to 194 and that is about what I have. Consider this. Overall these teams played to more Unders this year than Overs but in games that were posted between 180 and 189.5, they are a combined 26-11 OVER. We are going to see lot's of transition from both teams and most likely some very good OE. The last 5 meetings have featured Posted Totals of 194 or higher. 3 of those went OVER and 4 out of those 5 went OVER the one we have tonight. I'm not sure where this line is going, most likely slide down a bit, but I'm getting mine now..