6-11-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

spartan | MLB ML - Tuesday, Jun 11 2013 8:10PM
ML 980 MIN +110 vs 979 PHI double-dime bet

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Bryan Leonard | NBASides - Tuesday, Jun 11 2013 9:07PM
706 SAN -2.0 vs 705 MIA double-dime bet

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Joe Gavazzi | MLB ML - Tuesday, Jun 11 2013 8:05PM
ML 970 TEX -165 vs 969 CLE triple-dime bet

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DannyB

cards/mets over 7.5

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TMC SportsAdvisors

Spurs -2

NBA Finals 2-0

Minnesota +105

Texas -1.5 +110

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Bob Akmens Sports

Sunday 1-5, Monday 0-2 all favorites

Today
Pittsburgh Pirates -120
Milwaukee Brewers -110
Cincinnati Reds -125
Baltimore Orioles -125
Texas Rangers -190

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JAmes Jones "Fastball Favorite" System pick

Detroit Tigers (-165.0)

Claims the system is 8-1 on the year!

However, Now you need to listem to my tale of woo!! SO after I buy the pick on line I need to call this 800 number to get it. The guy puts me on hold for 10 minutes. Then comes back on and tells me he needs to call me back with the pick, (totally to up sell me)! SO I get pissed and tell him I do all my transacations on the web, and that I am mad for having to call with this pick!! Now this genius goes off and tells me that he would not wipe his ass with this play!! What a salesman!! Thsi totally makes me want to buy his higher priced picks now!

[DaKid]

JAmes Jones "Fastball Favorite" System pick

Detroit Tigers (-165.0)

Claims the system is 8-1 on the year!

However, Now you need to listem to my tale of woo!! SO after I buy the pick on line I need to call this 800 number to get it. The guy puts me on hold for 10 minutes. Then comes back on and tells me he needs to call me back with the pick, (totally to up sell me)! SO I get pissed and tell him I do all my transacations on the web, and that I am mad for having to call with this pick!! Now this genius goes off and tells me that he would not wipe his ass with this play!! What a salesman!! Thsi totally makes me want to buy his higher priced picks now!

Lol

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ACCU-SCORE MLB

SV-Home Wins 55 to 59.9% 94-76, 55.3% +2148 -

HOU 977 vs SEA 978 -- Value on Houston Astros +142
ARI 963 vs LAD 964 -- Value on Arizona Diamondbacks +130
MIL 953 vs MIA 954 -- Value on Miami Marlins -101

NL WEST DIV GAME SV 48-29, 62.3% +1960 -

ARI 963 vs LAD 964 -- Value on Arizona Diamondbacks +130

AL WEST DIV GAME SV 45-26, 63.4% +1718 -

HOU 977 vs SEA 978 -- Value on Houston Astros +142

4 STAR TOTALS 121-96, 55.8% +1540 -

TOR 973 vs CHW 974 -- Under 9
DET 971 vs KC 972 -- Under 8.5
NYY 975 vs OAK 976 -- Under 7
CLE 969 vs TEX 970 -- Under 9.5
SF 951 vs PIT 952 -- Under 7.5
MIL 953 vs MIA 954 -- Under 7.5

ML-Home Wins 45 to 49.9% 85-66, 56.3% +1677 -

CIN 957 vs CHC 958 -- Over 50% on Cincinnati Reds -125
ATL 961 vs SD 962 -- Over 50% on Atlanta Braves -112

4 STAR SIDE VALUE 89-62, 58.9% +762 -

NYY 975 vs OAK 976 -- Value on Oakland Athletics -109
WAS 959 vs COL 960 -- Value on Colorado Rockies -141
BOS 967 vs TB 968 -- Value on Boston Red Sox -123

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA Finals action report: Books expect move to Spurs -2.5

Game 3 of the NBA Finals is the most important chapter in the series, according to postseason history. This is the 36th time the finals have been locked at 1-1 and the winner of Game 3 has gone on to win the NBA Championship 30 out of 35 times.

With that trend in mind, we talk with oddsmakers at online sportsbooks to see where the action is and where the Game 3 odds will move before the 9 p.m. ET tipoff:

Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs – Open: -2.5, Move: -2

The series swings to the AT&T Center following Miami’s blowout victory in Game 2. Oddsmakers weren’t convinced enough to make the Heat road chalk and instead pegged the defending champs as underdogs for the first time this postseason. Early money took advantage of the rare circumstances and grabbed the Heat +2.5.

“It didn't take long for us to see sharp action take the points and we went straight to Spurs -2 yesterday at around noon,” Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, told Covers. “Since going to Spurs -2, we've seen quite a bit of money on them at that price.”

According to Stewart, about 65 percent of the current handle is on San Antonio which is forcing books to think about moving back the original spread of Spurs -2.5 before game time.

“Even though we believe more sharp action will come in on the Heat if we go to 2.5, we'll be going there at some point today to protect ourselves from all the Spurs money we're seeing,” he says.

With such a tight spread, the Game 3 moneylines have also become a popular wager. Miami opened as a +120 underdog to win straight up while San Antonio opened at -140. According to Aron Black of Bet365.com, most moneyline wagers are on the Heat and have trimmed the price to Miami +115/San Antonio -135.

“Straight up odd is about 4-to-1 in favor of Miami over San Antonio,” says Black. “A lot are ignoring the small spread plus the points on Miami and taking the moneyline price at +115.”

As for the total for Game 3, most books opened at 187.5 and took early action on the over, bumping the number up a half point. Since the move, over/under action has been coming in on both sides and books expect to stay put.

“Unless a sharp group comes in on this total, I don't see us moving off the 188,” says Stewart.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportsbook: NBA Finals on pace for "record handle"
By JASON LOGAN

A massive handle through the first two games of the NBA Finals has sportsbooks thanking their lucky stars the Indiana Pacers didn’t upset the Miami Heat in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals.

Sportsbooks online and in Las Vegas are reporting what some say is a “record handle” on the first two games between the Heat and San Antonio Spurs, and expect that interest to continue through the rest of the series.

“This has been record handle so far and, given the way it’s gone, we could be looking at a long series as many anticipated,” Aron Black of Bet365.com told Covers.

Black says there was more money wagered on Games 1 and 2 of the finals than an entire season’s worth of NBA futures and NBA Finals series prices combined.

"To be honest, it goes up every year, regardless of teams," he says. "That's mainly due to global customer-base growth as well as availability on devices to bet with iPhone, android, tablet, etc. Last year saw the biggest action overall, with two very popular teams in Miami and Oklahoma City. But the last three years have seen large action per game, and this one is taking the cake for most action."

In Las Vegas, sportsbooks took lighter action on Game 1 Tuesday but were extremely busy for Game 2 Sunday. According to Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage, the handle for Game 2 was 20 percent higher compared to Game 3 of last year’s NBA Finals, which also fell on a Sunday.

“Business has been very good, but I wouldn’t call it a record handle,” Stoneback told Covers. “I think a lot of that action was driven by the Heat losing the first game. People saw that as a good opportunity. We had more money on the Miami moneyline. We opened it -280 and closed it at -360.”

Down the road, the LVH Superbook was swamped by similar action. They had a near even split on Game 1 and a big lean towards the Heat in Game 2.

“The handle has been tremendous through the first two games,” Jeff Sherman, assistant manager at the LVH Superbook told Covers. “As for Game 3, it’s starting to trickle in but a majority of our handle comes in the hours leading up to the game.”

Oddsmakers currently have the Spurs set as 2-point home favorites for Game 3 Tuesday night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc's Sports

3-unit Play Take Cleveland Indians/Texas Rangers UNDER 9.5 (7:10pm ET) There's lots to like about both of todays' starting pitchers in this contest between the Cleveland Indians and Texas Rangers. Right-hander Corey Kluber has started to come into his own as a starter after beginning the season in the bullpen. In his last five starts, he has a very solid 3.67 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. More impressively, he has 34 strikeouts to go against just three walks in those 27 innings. That's a good indication that he has good stuff and can control it. Derek Holland has been pitching well the entire season. He comes in at 5-2 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 12 starts this season. He's increased his strikeout rate from last season and decreased his walks, and is now heading towards elite status in the American League. While both of these pitchers are locked in right now, I don't think either one is getting the respect that they deserve. They aren't big name pitchers at this point in their careers, and that's why we have a relatively high total on this game of 9.5. Both offenses are capable of doing some damage, but I think these pitchers can shut them down. Take the Under in this one.

5-unit Play Take #975 New York Yankees (+100) at Oakland A's (10:05pm ET) The New York Yankees have been a mash unit this season, but the troops are slowly coming back. Mark Teixeira and Kevin Youkilis are back in the daily lineup and Curtis Granderson isn't far behind. It's amazing that New York was able to stay afloat without so many key parts, but they have a lot of veterans and leadership on this team and it's definitely shown. CC Sabathia is one of those leaders, and despite a few bumps here and there he looks like he finally has it together. He pitched a complete game in his last outing while striking out nine and walking just one. He did allow four runs, but the Yankees jumped out to an early 6-0 lead and Sabathia cruised from there. In the outing before that, Sabathia struck out 10 batters with no walks against the Red Sox. He won that game as he only allowed one run in 7 1/3 innings. His velocity has also been steadily climbing since the end of April and that's a good sign for the tall left-hander. Bartolo Colon and the Oakland A's will face the Yankees tonight. Colon has put up solid numbers this season but he'll have his hands full with a Yankees lineup that features lots of lefties. He faced the Yankees earlier this season and surrendered three runs in just 5 1/3 innings in a loss. He's been throwing the ball very well lately, but he doesn't throw hard and relies on pinpoint control. The Yankees have a veteran lineup that has seen Colon plenty of times before, so they know what they're up against and have had good results against him in the past. Both of these teams come into today's game playing good baseball. The Yankees have won six out of seven and the A's are 18-5 in their last 23 contests. I give the Yanks the edge with the better starting pitcher and the better bullpen in case things are tight in the late innings. Play New York as our 5-unit Game of the Week.

Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

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Sports Handicapper King

San Antonio Spurs
Colorado Rockies

Freeloader: Minnesota

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JACK JONES

NBA Basketball Premium Picks

-= TOP PLAY =-

NBA | Jun 11 '13 (9:00p) MIAMI GM3 vs SAN ANTONIO GM3

SAN ANTONIO GM3 -2-107 at 5dimes

20* Heat/Spurs Game 3 No-Brainer on San Antonio -2 I have gone 2-0 in the Finals with the Spurs +5.5 in Game 1 and the Heat -5.5 in Game 2. As expected, the Heat bounced back in basically a must-win situation in Game 2 with a blowout victory as they simply wanted it more. Now, returning home for Game 3, I look for the Spurs to make the proper adjustments and to continue their dominance in San Antonio. The Spurs are a ridiculous 41-7 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 10.1 points/game. It has been a rollercoaster ride for the Heat against the spread dating back to the Eastern Conference Finals. Every time they get a big win, they seem to come back with a poor effort their next game. After a loss, they tend to bounce back with a great effort. In fact, Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games following a S.U. win. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. These three trends combine for a perfect 14-0 system in support of San Antonio heading into Game 3. I believe that Game 3 is where all that rest the Spurs received after sweeping the Grizzlies will pay off. Conversely, I feel that the grueling 7-game series the Heat faced against the Pacers will come into play. San Antonio will be the fresher team, and that will show in the 3rd and 4th quarters as it pulls away for a Game 3 victory. Bet the Spurs Tuesday. MLB Baseball Premium Picks MLB | Jun 11 '13 (7:05p) Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles Los Angeles Angels +114 at 5dimes 15* AL Tuesday Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Los Angeles Angels +114 After losing Game 1 of this series, and dropping three straight overall, the Los Angeles Angels come in highly motivated for a win tonight against the Baltimore Orioles. I like their chances of stopping the bleeding with the underrated Jason Vargas on the mound. Vargas continues to outperform oddsmakers' expectations, going 5-3 with a 3.71 ERA through 12 starts this season. What I really like about the left-hander tonight is the fact that he is 2-2 with a miniscule 1.65 ERA and 1.020 WHIP in seven career starts against Baltimore. He shut out the Orioles 4-0 on May 3rd in his last start against them. Miguel Gonzalez is getting too much respect from the books in this one. The right-hander has gone 3-2 with a 4.05 ERA in 10 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 5.11 ERA in four home starts. He has just been fortunate to get solid run support to this point, but that won't happen against Vargas. The Angels are 6-1 in Vargas' last 7 starts overall. The Orioles are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Bet the Angels Tuesday. MLB | Jun 11 '13 (8:10p) Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals +150 at BetOnline 15* AL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +150 The Kansas City Royals are showing awesome value as a big home underdog to the Detroit Tigers. They are playing their best baseball of the season coming into this one. They have won six straight overall and are playing with a ton of confidence right now. Wade Davis has held his own in the past when facing Detroit. The right-hander has posted a 3.51 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in four career starts against the Tigers. Max Scherzer has posted a 3.84 ERA and 1.409 WHIP in 14 career starts against Kansas City. He has faced the Royals once this year, allowing five earned runs and 10 base runners over 5 innings on April 24th. Detroit is 1-10 (-11.2 Units) against the money line in road games after scoring 2 runs or less this season. The Tigers are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a road favorite. The Royals are 6-0 in their last 6 home games. Take the Royals Tuesday. MLB | Jun 11 '13 (8:40p) Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies Washington Nationals +140 at SIA 15* NL Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +140 The Washington Nationals are showing some of their best value of the season tonight as a big road underdog to the Colorado Rockies. While the Nationals are off to a slow start by their standards at 31-31, I have no doubt that this is still one of the best teams in the league. While Dan Haren is off to a slow start as well, there's no question that he's at least as good as his opposing starter. Jhoulys Chacin has struggled as well, going 3-3 with a 4.59 ERA in 11 starts, including 2-2 with a 5.65 ERA in seven home starts. Haren is 7-5 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.180 WHIP in 14 career starts against Colorado, while Chacin is 1-2 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.294 WHIP in three career starts against Washington. Washington is 16-4 (+14.0 Units) against the money line after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings over the last 3 seasons. Colorado is 44-90 (-40.3 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) over the last 3 seasons. The Rockies are 6-15 in their last 21 games following a win. Roll with the Nationals Tuesday. MLB | Jun 11 '13 (10:10p) Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Houston Astros +147 at BetOnline 15* AL Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston Astros +147 The Seattle Mariners have no business being this heavily favored with Aaron Harang getting the ball. The Houston Astros clearly have the edge on the mound behind Bud Norris, and I'll back them at an excellent price because of it. Norris has gone 5-5 with a 3.43 ERA in 13 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA in one career start against Seattle, which occurred on April 23rd in a 3-2 Houston victory. Harang has been atrocious this season, going 2-6 with a 6.70 ERA in nine starts. He is also 2-3 with a 5.68 ERA in five home starts. The right-hander has posted a 4.36 ERA in 26 career starts against Houston, and most of those came before he was past his prime. Norris is 9-3 (+8.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Seattle is 8-17 (-16.9 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. The Astros are 5-1 in Norris' last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with Houston Tuesday. MLB | Jun 11 '13 (10:10p) Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers -138 at 5dimes 15* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -138 Zach Greinke simply does not lose at home. He is off to another solid start at home this season, going 3-0 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.103 WHIP in four starts. The Dodgers are 4-0 in those four contests. Ian Kennedy is having a down year for the Arizona Diamondbacks. The right-hander has gone 3-4 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.382 WHIP in 12 starts, 1-3 with a 6.64 ERA in seven road starts, and 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA in his last three outings. Greinke is 18-1 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Greinke is 14-0 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in home games vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 3 seasons. Greinke is 32-4 (+26.5 Units) against the money line in all home games over the last 3 seasons. Enough said. Take the Dodgers Tuesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Landau Tuesday:
PIT -128 / CIN -130 / ATL -117 / LAD -134 / KC +152