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Play On - Road teams (TORONTO) bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20) (AL), after 4 straight games where they stranded 8 or more runners on base
25-14 since 1997. ( 64.1% 23.0 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% -1.0 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends - FoxSheets
MLB NY YANKEES at OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 15-2 (+12.7 Units) against the money line in Home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season.
The average score was: OAKLAND (5.1) , OPPONENT (3.1)
Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points good offensive team - scoring 99+ points/game on the season, after a blowout win by 20 points or more
54-25 since 1997. ( 68.4% 26.5 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% 0.8 units )
NBA MIAMI at SAN ANTONIO
Play On - Any team vs [U]the money line (SAN ANTONIO) an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a blowout win by 15 points or more
116-66 since 1997. ( 63.7% 45.3 units )
12-4 this year. ( 75.0% 3.9 units )
NBA MIAMI at SAN ANTONIO
Play Under - Any team vs. the 1rst half line as a # 1 seed in the playoffs
329-231 since 1997. ( 58.8% 74.9 units )
16-13 this year. ( 55.2% 1.7 units )
4-Unit Play #707 Take Miami/San Antonio UNDER 186.5 (9 p.m. EST, Thursday)
This has been a clear under series, and Game 3, the only game so far that has gone over, should have gone under as well. Just think that the bookies should have adjusted this total downward a bit more instead of pretty much standing pat. First of all, Tony Parker is hurt. He has a sprained hamstring and is listed as probable for Game 4. He is the key to the Spurs success on offense, and even if he is limited at all in terms of minutes or performance, that is sure to account for a couple points being knocked off the total. Game 3 barely went over in the final minute of the game (garbage time), and that is with the Spurs just going off from long distance with 16 made threes. At the end of the game they were just running up the court and chunking up longballs. We think this game will be closer and that they will not be able to play this way, and they aren't going to shoot like they did in Game 3, either. We think that the Heat will play better on both offense and defense, and a close game can really benefit the under late in the game as both teams really lock down on defense for the last few possessions for each team. For the last two games one team had broken out offensively, but these teams are really getting to know each other and we just think that this will be one of the most defensive games in the series as both teams should be real focused for this crucial Game 4.
jason sharpe
7 Unit Play Take #707 Miami pick'em over San Antonio (9:07pm est):
In a series dominated by the zig-zag theory, it's now the Miami Heat's turn to play a big game and get the win here tonight in game four. The zig-zag theory is an old NBA basketball betting theory that has been profitable for quite some time. In a nutshell it says to bet on the team who just lost the last game in a playoff series. These teams will usually step up and responded in their next game following a loss.
The Miami Heat have been ziggying and zagging throughout a lot of these playoffs so far. Look no further than the fact on how they have responded off a loss, by winning their next game the last 11 times they were in this type of spot here. In fact they are 11-0 straight-up and against the spread following their last 11 losses. Even more impressive than that is not only has the Heat won but in the manner in which they have done it also, winning each of those next 11 games by a double digit margin. In the playoffs they have lost five games so far only to come back the following game and win by 37, 18, 11, 23 and 19 points. When this team is desperate and upset no team responds better than the Miami Heat and believe me this is a very upset and desperate squad right now following their game three blowout loss.
The Heat knew after game two that they need to win just one game in San Antonio to guarantee a return trip back home to Miami here in this series. Despite getting embarrassed last game things are still pretty much going as expected for the Heat so far. This is the big game here tonight that Miami needs. Game three was the big game for the Spurs, the one they needed and look what happened in that one, San Antonio played nearly a perfect game. Now this is the game that the Heat circled when then came out to San Antonio as the one game that they needed to win. They know that things could really fall apart for them if they were to drop behind 3 games to 1 in this series. In other words this will be like a game seven type contest for the Heat here tonight in this one and no team steps up more in these type of spots than the Heat. Look for them to do it again here in game four. Play Miami. Been a up and down start to my MLB season but 10 weeks into it we are showing a profit at this time. A winning season again this year would make it a perfect four for four winning season's betting on baseball for me here at Doc's Sports. Lots more winning to come in these next few months so join in on all the fun and let's build that bankroll up before the big football season begins.
vegas sports informer
3 Unit Play. Take #707 Miami -1 over San Antonio (9:00 p.m., Thursday, June 13 ABC)
I think if Tony Parker was 100% this play could be different but tonight I see a HUGE game from Lebron James. (If you can bet I would bet all Lebron James props over) Look for Miami defense to be the big key tonight and the Heat win this game on defense alone. Should be a hard fought game and I don't see another big blowout game like Game #3. Heat win this game in the 4th quarter and Legon James wins this game in the 4th quarter.
indian cowboy
5-Unit Play. #707. Take Miami Heat -1 Over San Antonio Spurs (Thursday @ 9pm est).
5-Unit Play. #707. Take Under 187 Miami vs. San Antonio (Thursday @ 9pm est).
I am glad that Parker is probable for this game so as not to give San Antonio anymore motivation. If you think the Heat are going to roll over and go down 1-3 and head into game five in the NBA Finals, that is nothing something the NBA wants nor is it something that the Heat will take rolling over. Look for the Heat to be in attack mode from start to finish. Look for Lebron to not be so "nice" early on as he understands how hard it is to get to this stage and fall short. The Heat's calling card is their ability to bounce-back after they lose a a game, regular season and in particular in the playoffs. And for them to give up 103 points is not the calling card of this defensive minded team. Look for this team to be highly aggressive on the defensive end and not allow San Antonio free reign to their 3 point shooting as the make adjustments but at the same time, also claw back to make this game a series and win this game. This is why I believe the line is just +1 because the oddsmakers realize the Heat are likely to bounce-back in this game. The Heat are the NBA's most scrutinized team, but they're also the best. Miami GM Pat Riley constructed a team that defends well to keep the Heat in games, and has two top closers in Wade and James to pull them out. The Heat were heavily criticized for the way they put the team together, their pep rally celebration that followed, and became the league's most-hated team outside their home arena. The Miami "Hate" are loving their role of the NBA's most "HATED" franchise. The Heat are the best shooting team in NBA history. Their effective field goal percentage of (55.2) percent didn't just lead the league. It was the highest mark of all-time. The Spurs best players are all over the age of (31) with three of them over (35). While they are still productive, the league's better teams are all younger than San Antonio. The Spurs managed to commit just four turnovers, choking off a valuable Heat scoring resource in their Game One victory. In the San Antonio Game Three win, their role players shot the lights out from beyond the arc. Both are rarities in the playoffs and highly unlikely to surface again in this series. When the Heat meet the Spurs in Game Four of the NBA Finals they will take the court in a desirable winning situation as road teams, in Game Four of a playoff series off a loss of (23) or more points, are (16-4) ATS, including (8-0) ATS since 1990 if they scored (87) or more points in the game prior to the blowout loss. It's easy to react to a loss for a veteran team in NBA Playoff action and expect the Flash to be back in the Miami Attack as anything less than back-to-back titles will be a disappointment for the Heat.
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