6-17-13

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National League betting cheat sheet and tips

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Monday’s National League games:

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals (-199, 7.5)

Weather: Temperatures in the high-70s and a 70 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will blow out to left field at 5 mph.

Probable starters: Cubs LH Travis Wood (5-5, 2.65 ERA), Cardinals RH Shelby Miller (7-4, 2.21)

Wood has recorded quality starts in 12 of his 13 outings, including a win May 7 in which he held the Cardinals to one run in 6 2/3 innings. The under is 4-0-1 in Wood’s last five starts as an underdog.

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies (108, 8.5)

Weather: Temperatures in the high-70s and winds will blow out to right field at 8 mph.

Probable starters: Nationals RH Dan Haren (4-8, 5.70 ERA) vs. Phillies LH John Lannan (0-1, 6.14)

Haren has lost three straight starts and is 0-5 in his last six outings. The righty has surrendered at least two blasts in four of his last five starts and has coughed up a National League-leading 17. The over is 5-0 in Haren’s last five starts as a favorite.

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (-192, 7.5)

Weather: Temperatures in the high-70s and a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will blow out to right field at 4 mph.

Probable starters: Mets RH Dillon Gee (5-6, 4.84 ERA) vs. Braves RH Tim Hudson (4-6, 4.41)

Hudson is 0-5 in seven starts since defeating New York on May 5 when he gave up three runs and five hits in 7 1/3 innings. Gee has won three straight games, giving up one run in each outing and striking out 26 in 21 innings during the stretch. The Mets are 4-1 in their last five games as a road underdog.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (-113, 8)

Weather: Temperatures in the low-80s with a 30 percent of thunderstorms. Winds will blow out to left field at 5 mph.

Probable starters: Pirates LH Francisco Liriano (5-2, 2.36 ERA) vs. Reds RH Mike Leake (6-3, 2.76)

Leake threw six scoreless innings at Pittsburgh in outdueling Liriano in a 2-0 Reds' win on the first day of the month. That effort is part of an impressive six-start stretch that has seen Leake go 4-1 with a 1.13 ERA. The Reds are 6-0 in their last six games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.

Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks (-212, 8)

Weather: Roof could be closed due to excessive heat.

Probable starters: Marlins RH Jacob Turner (1-0, 1.80 ERA) vs. Diamondbacks LH Patrick Corbin (9-0, 2.28)

Corbin leads all starters in the Covers Money Standings with $1,365 this year. Arizona is 8-0 in Corbin’s last eight home starts.

San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants (-119, 8)

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-50s and winds will blow out to center field at 15 mph.

Probable starters: Padres RH Edinson Volquez (5-5, 5.87 ERA) vs. Giants LH Barry Zito (4-5, 4.79)

The Friars have strung together six consecutive wins against formidable opponents (Braves, Diamondbacks) to rise above the .500 mark and move within two games of the NL West Division lead. The Giants are 9-1 in Zito’s last 10 starts as a home favorite.

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The Sharp Circle

MLB
966 Cleveland +118

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spartan | MLB ML - Monday, Jun 17 2013 8:10PM
ML 970 HOU -101 vs 969 CWS double-dime bet

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Bryan Leonard | MLB Total - Monday, Jun 17 2013 7:05PM
953 CHC / 954 STL UNDER 7.5 double-dime bet

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SB Professor NHL Picks

Chicago Blackhawks +115

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INDIAN COWBOY MLB

3-Unit play Take Under 8 - Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati (7:10pm)

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Stephen Nover MLB Total Mon, 06/17/13 - 10:15 PM

double-dime bet - 962 SFG / 961 SDP - UNDER 8

Don't look for many runs to be scored with all the key injuries these two teams have.
The Giants are without Pablo Sandoval and Angel Pagen. They also might be missing Marco Scutaro again. The Padres could be down five key bats. Already on the DL are Yonder Alonso, Jedd Gyorko and Cameron Maybin. They could also be without Carlos Quentin and Everth Cabrera. Quentin has a shoulder injury that zaps him of his power and Cabrera is dealing with a hamstring. If the speedy Cabrera can't run he's useless.

The Padres weren't an offensive force before these injuries. Now they're reduced to playing small ball. Not helping matters is the continued season-long slump of Chase Headley.

Barry Zito can take advantage of this weakened lineup since he's pitching at home. Taking advantage of spacious AT&T Park, Zito has a 4-1 home mark with a 1.94 ERA. The under has cashed the last five times Zito has pitched at home against San Diego.

Padres starter Edinson Volquez pitches much better on the West Coast where he takes advantage of spacious pitcher's parks. He pitched well in last outing holding the Braves to one run in seven inning at home with a season-high nine strikeouts. The under is 7-3-1 the last 11 times Volquez has pitched versus an NL West opponent.

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Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

Philadelphia Phillies

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Blasscyk WINS

Game #1
BW Play: 965 K.C. Royals OVER 8 (-110) *3 UNITS* (5 Dimes)

Game #2
BW Play: 971 Seattle Mariners OVER 8 (-115) *5 UNITS* (5 Dimes)

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SPORTS WAGERS

PHILADELPHIA +100 over Washington

The Nationals have lost each of Dan Haren’s last six starts. On the road, Haren is 1-6 with a 5.75 ERA and that’s because he can’t keep the ball in the yard. Haren has allowed 17 jacks in 72.2 innings and he’s been taken deep five times over his last two starts, which includes giving up three bombs to the Mets in Washington. That’s the risk of wagering on a fly-ball pitcher. Dan Haren’s 32%/47% groundball/fly-ball split is not likely to play well at this venue. The Nationals do not have the offense to compensate for the amount of hits (91 in 72.2 IP) and jacks that Haren surrenders. Haren’s fastball velocity has also dipped from 92 MPH to barely 88 MPH this season.

By contrast, John Lannan has always maintained an elite groundball profile. Lannan’s groundball rate over the past four years beginning in ’09 was 53%, 52%, 54% and 57% last season. This year in three starts, Lannan’s groundball rate is 58%. Lannan is not overpowering by any means but he’s consistent, he keeps the ball down and always gives his team a chance to win. As a dog against the struggling Nationals and a fly-ball pitcher in this park, Lannan and the Phillies are wrongly being billed as the underdog here.

TORONTO -1½ +141 over Colorado

We may have missed a chance to capitalize on the Blues Jays over the weekend in Texas but unfavorable pitching matchups that included Wang and Dickey pitching in Arlington made the Jays a difficult choice. That’s not the case here. First, most of these Rockies players have never played in Toronto and it’s not an easy park to deal with for those unfamiliar. The Rockies have not played a single game on turf the entire season, making it even more uncomfortable for the visitor. Jorge De La Rosa was a power arm capable of piling up big strikeout totals before being derailed by Tommy John surgery in 2011. And when he finally took the mound again last September, the results weren't pretty. This year has been a bit better but there signs of trouble to be sure. De La Rosa has allowed a line drive on 27% of the balls righties have put in play this season, second highest among pitchers with at least 12 starts. His walk totals are increasing and his strikeout totals are decreasing. De La Rosa’s health is in question and he’s been hammered in six of his 14 starts. At this park, where line-drives rule, De La Rosa could be in serious trouble.

Josh Johnson has made just six starts this season. As is usually the case with so few starts, one terrible start (six ER in 1.3 IP) is skewing his results and so is some bad luck. Johnson’s hit% and hr/f are out of whack but his xERA says he’s not been this bad. As these normalize, his ERA will come down. In two starts since coming off the DL, Johnson has whiffed 10 batters in 12 innings and has induced an elite 62% groundballs with an even more elite 11% line-drive rate. It’s the health not the skills that are a concern. With 164 DL days the past three years, Johnson has earned his “F” health grade. Assuming he remains healthy, you can expect Johnson to turn around his slow start and post the strong numbers he’s capable of. Jays are rolling and feeling much better these days and we expect that trend to continue here.

San Diego +112 over SAN FRANCISCO

The “fade Barry Zito” theory is still on. Zito was hammered for eight earned runs on 11 hits over just 4.2 innings Wednesday against the Pirates. In five road starts, Zito’s ERA is 11.84. In eight home starts, Zito’s ERA is 1.94, a difference of almost 10 runs. AT&T Park plays friendly to pitchers but that discrepancy is nothing short of remarkable and it strongly insists that Zito’s home numbers are in for a big correction. Trust us when we tell you that Zito has not pitched better at home than on the road. He’s the same garbage pitcher no matter where he pitches but his luck at home has been off the charts. Almost every ball that is hit off Zito is hit hard or deep with the difference being at home they’ve been hit right at people. Zito is a bad play no matter where he pitches and fading him offers nothing but value.

The Padres have reeled off six in a row and the only reason they’re being offered a price here is because the erratic Edinson Volquez is pitching. Last season, Volquez crossed the 10-win and 180-inning plateaus for just the second time in his career and first time since 2008. Unfortunately, Volquez has maintained his ridiculously high walk rate. Last year, his 13.1% BB% was the worst in the majors among 85 qualified starters. That led to a 1.45 WHIP, a mark that only five pitchers managed to "top." This year his walk rate isn’t much better but that doesn’t mean he can’t be tough to hit against. Volquez uses four pitches that he throws at least 21% of the time and he’ll throw any one of them at any time in any count. He throws a 93 MPH fastball 22½% of the time, a slider 31%, a change 21.1% and a curve 24.4% of the time. He also has a 50% fly-ball rate and this park is a lot more forgiving to pitchers that issue walks than any other. Volquez allowed just one run on six hits and three walks while striking out a season-high nine batters over seven innings in a win over the Braves on Wednesday. Ask 30 GM’s and 30 managers who they would rather have pitching for them and 60 answers would be Volquez. We’re 61.

Miami +190 over ARIZONA

Patrick Corbin has started 13 games for the D-Backs this season. Incredibly, the Snakes have won them all. Corbin became the first hurler to throw at least six innings and allow two runs or fewer in his first nine starts of the season since Ubaldo Jimenez had 12 straight such outings with the Colorado Rockies in 2010. Corbin is good but he was the least hyped of the prospect trio that included himself along with Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs and there are signs that his amazing run is about to end. Corbin gave up four runs on eight hits Wednesday while striking out two over five innings against the Dodgers. He’s now been hit hard in three of his past four starts against the aforementioned Dodgers, the Cubbies and San Diego. Corbin’s groundball rate is trending the wrong way, which is another strong sign of fatigue. In fact, that rate has gone from 44% in April down to 40 % in June, down to 32% in his last four starts. Guys like Sandy Koufax, Steve Carlton, Bob Gibson and Ron Guidry put together runs like the one that Patrick Corbin is on. He’s not close to being in that same category and his run is unsustainable. This has nothing to do with the “due to lose” angle, one we do not subscribe to. It’s about taking back a huge tag against the struggling Diamondbacks with an overvalued Patrick Corbin on the mound.

The Marlins are playing some pretty good ball right now. They’re coming off a series win over the Cardinals and they’ve now won five of their past eight games. Miami scored 19 runs in the three-game set off a tough Cardinals pitching staff in a pitcher-friendly venue and now that offense moves to a much more hitter friendly environment. Then there’s Jacob Turner, one of the most unnoticed and undervalued throwers in the game. Acquired by the Marlins in July, the top pitching prospect had a mediocre debut in his second taste of the Majors. At age 22 and with only 100 IP of experience at Triple-A, Turner needed some more seasoning in the minors and it appears to have served him well. While his top prospect pedigree hasn't surfaced yet, he did post a nice 9.6% swinging strike rate between Detroit and Miami in 2012, an indication that he's got more strikeouts coming. With an elite 56% groundball rate over 20 innings this season, all three of Turner’s starts this year have been of the pure quality variety. His surface stats (1.80 ERA -1.05 WHIP) come with full skills support and he has yet to be taken yard. In summarizing, we get the team and pitcher in better form right now with a huge tag on their backs in a game in which their chances of winning are just as good as the opposition’s chances. That’s value.

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bookiemonsters

indians game under 8

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Kevin
MLBPredictions W/writeup

2 UNIT = Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians - ROYALS -1 (-106)
Listed Pitchers: Shields vs Carrasco
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.89 units)

**This is a variation of a run line bet and almost all sportsbooks will offer this type of bet. If the Royals win by 1 run it is a "push" and cancelled bet, but if they win by 2 or more we win our bet. If you can't bet this you can simply bet moneyline at -130**

The Royals enter this one off a weekend series win in Tampa Bay taking 2 of three, and winners of 10 of their last 12 games overall. After a big slide they have rebounded to just one game below .500 at 33-34. The Indians managed a weekend series win over the Nationals, winning two games when they scored just 2 runs. They've won 4 of 5 overall, but that comes after losing 8 straight games. James Shields is on the mound for Kansas City and he is 2-6 on the year with a 2.79 ERA, .237 OBA and 1.11 WHIP. He has posted a 2.14 ERA over his last three starts and the Royals are 3-0 in those games. Carlos Carrasco is on the mound for Cleveland and we successfully bet against him in his last start in Detroit where he gave up 10 hits and 6 earned runs in 4 innings of work. He is 0-2 over 2 starts with a 15.26 ERA and batters are hitting .436 against him. Take note that the Royals are 10-1 in their last 11 vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. They are also 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite, and 8-2 in their last 10 starts vs a right handed starter. The Indians are just 4-13 in their last 17 games as an underdog, 0-5 in their last 5 divisional games, and 0-8 in Carrasco's last 8 starts. This is a pitching mis-match tonight and I think the scoreboard will reflect that.

2 UNIT = Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds - UNDER 8 RUNS (-115)
Listed Pitchers: Liriano vs Leake
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.74 units)

The Pirates continue to win their backers money as they won another series at home vs the Dodgers this weekend. Totals of those games were 9, 8 and 3 with the Pirates scoring 12 runs over the three games. They are now a solid 41-28 on the season. The Reds are also coming off a home series win vs Milwaukee and have won 5 of their last 7 games. Totals of their games over the weekend were 6, 6, and 7 with just 9 runs scored over the 3 games but all around pretty solid pitching. Cincinnati is 42-28 on the year. Tonight the Pirates will send southpaw Francisco Liriano to the mound who is 5-2 on the season (over 7 starts) with a 2.36 ERA, .226 OBA and 1.26 WHIP. He has been a pleasant surprise this year for the Pirates. The Reds go with a pitcher who has also been a pleasant surprise from them in Mike Leake. After posting a 4.58 ERA last season Leake has been very solid this year, especially as of late. He is 6-3 on the season with a 2.76 ERA, .269 OBA and 1.24 WHIP. In May he posted a 1.87 ERA and so far in June through 3 starts he has a 1.89 ERA. And even better over his last 6 starts his ERA is a microscopic 1.13. These two teams have played 6 games so far this year and we've seen totals of 9, 2, 6, 17, 4, and 11. Only three of the six fell under tonight's total, but take note that these two pitchers squared off on June 1st and we saw a 2-0 final score. The UNDER is 4-1 in the Reds last 5 overall and 14-3 in their last 17 home games vs a team with a winning record. The UNDER is also 7-0 in their last 7 games vs a left handed starter, and 5-1 in Leake's last 6 starts overall. The UNDER is 10-3-2 in these two teams last 15 meetings overall and 3-1-1 in Leake's last 5 vs the Pirates. I don't know if we can expect just 2 runs in this game like the last time these two teams faced off, but I do think there is value in taking UNDER 8 runs tonight. Lets go with the UNDER to kick start the week.

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Brandon Lang

10 DIME
DIAMOND
MONEY MOVE

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Harry Bondi

MLB Free Play

SAN FRANCISCO (-120) over San Diego
10:15 p.m. ET
Our free pick record is now 14-5 (74%) the last 19 days, including eight underdog winners. The Padres are red-hot, winning six in a row and seven out of eight and we used them a couple times last week and cashed in. But tonight they run into Barry Zito, who has been terrific at home this season and will have what it takes to cool off San Diego. Zito is 4-1 with a 1.94 ERA in this park and overall this year the Giants are a profitable 21-11 at home. The Giants bullpen has also been fantastic at home posting a 2.21 ERA. Tough to step in front of such a hot team, but we'll lay the short number with the Giants at home.

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Billy Coleman

4* Indiana college world series
3.5* Cubs under
3* Blue Jays
3* Bruins