6-18-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Handicapper King

Tigers Run Line
Reds Run Line

Freeloader Heat ML -280

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Harry Bondi

MLB Free Play

NY YANKEES (-110) over LA Dodgers
7:05 p.m. ET
Our free pick record is now 14-6 (70%) the last 20 days, including eight underdog winners. The LA Dodgers continue to plod along and play uninspiring baseball and have really struggled all season against the better teams in the league, losing more than 15 units with a 15-27 record vs. winning teams. We get some real value with the line here tonight since the Dodgers are sending Hyun-jin Ryu to the hill. The South Korean is 6-2 2.85 ERA, but he has not been nearly effective on the road (4.21 ERA) as he has been at home (1.88 ERA). The Yankees have also gone 14-7 this season against southpaws and have the much better bullpen in this match-up. Lay the short number with the Yankees at home.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andy Iskoe

Spurs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Don Best Consensus

Padres at Giants
Pick: Over

The over is 7-3 in the Giants' last 10 Tuesdays games and the over is 7-2 in Giants' RHP Matt Cain's last 9 starts vs. San Diego Padres. The over is also 6-2-1 in Cain's last 9 home starts against the Padres. In games that Padres' RHP Cashner starts, the over is 4-6, and in games that Giants' RHP Cain starts, the over is 9-4 this season. Play Padres-Giants over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

San Antonio/MIAMI Under 191

After three straight high-scoring affairs in San Antonio, the scene now shifts back to South Beach, where the NBA season will conclude this week. The previous two games of this back-and-forth series saw scores that reached a combined 202 points for Game 4 and an incredible 218 for Game 5. Because of this, the number is now inflated, giving us a good under opportunity. In case anyone forgot, the first two games in Miami were slower-paced games than what transpired in San Antonio. In Game 1, both teams, while getting a feel for each other, put up only 180 points, and then followed that with 187 points in Game 2 as the Heat blew out the Spurs. Even though these teams are definitely more familiar with one another and their tendencies, there stands to be some adjustments that make a slower pace more likely for this one.

For starters, Miami will most likely remove Mike Miller from the starting line-up and insert either Udonis Haslem or Chris Anderson in his place. Miller has been held scoreless in 46 minutes of game-time in the past two games, and Spoelstra will like look for production elsewhere. The obvious choice is either Haslem or Anderson, which would result in Tiago Splitter and/or Boris Diaw playing more minutes. This chess-match will naturally result in a slower-paced game as the Heat may have to end up going away from their small-ball philosophy, which the Spurs seemingly found an answer to in Game 5 by inserting Manu Ginobili into the line-up. It is unreasonable to expect the Spurs to shoot 60% again from the field as they head back to Miami. On the defensive end is where San Antonio is going to win a game in Miami, and that starts by continuing to force LeBron and Wade into shooting jump shots, and having Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green doing their best at disrupting the transition play of the league’s most destructive force in the open court. Green and Leonard have done an excellent job all series long playing perimeter defense, and that should continue even with the series going back to Miami.

Incidentally, we are sticking by our series prediction of the Spurs winning, and would not recommend hedging since there is no value in doing so.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

Milwaukee -106 over HOUSTON

Without question the most undervalued team in the majors are these Brewers. Loaded with talent from top to bottom, it just doesn’t make sense that the Crew own the third worst record in MLB. The first four hitters in the Brewers lineup are batting .301, .331, .319 and .281 respectively and none of those are named Ryan Braun. Jonathan Lucroy usually bats fifth or sixth and is hitting .271 and already has six jacks and 37 RBI’s. Also keep your eye on 2B Scooter Gennett. He and SS Jean Segura will at some point form a deadly up-the-middle duo that could quickly become the best in baseball. Gennett is hitting just .214 but don’t let that fool you, as this kid is patient and has made great contact but has hit the ball right at people. In any event, the Brewers are going to offer up some outstanding value in certain spots because of their poor record and it begins here with Alfredo Figaro. Figaro has been one of the more skilled starters in the game with the bases empty, showing elite command and a pronounced ground ball tilt of 56%. An inflated 29% hr/f with the bases empty has resulted in him giving up an inordinate number of solo jacks. His skills with runners on base have been really good too and his command gets even better. Figaro has 37 K’s and just seven walks in 47 innings. His average fastball velocity is sitting at 95.3 mph, the highest fastball velocity of any SP not named Strasburg or Harvey. The window for buying low on Figaro is closing quickly and the time to buy aggressively is right now.

Jordan Lyles is coming off the best start of his career versus Seattle, where he threw seven scoreless innings and struck out 10. That’s nice but this isn’t Seattle at Safeco. At home, Lyles has a BAA of .300 and an ERA of 5.00. This start will mark his seventh start against the Brewers, who are a former division rival. In 35 IP against them, he is 1-3 with a 4.11 ERA with an xERA of 4.92. This is a classic case of buying low and selling high because it is of our humble opinion that the Brewers should be about -170 chalk here, making this the best play of the day.


CINCINNATI -1½ +119 over Pittsburgh

How can this one turn out any other way with Charlie Morton opposing Mat Latos? Latos could have been the poster-boy for park effects. With two stellar seasons in pitcher-friendly San Diego, Latos was traded to homeriffic Cincinnati before the 2012 season. But as we sometimes forget, elite skills don’t care about a park’s dimensions. The consistency of Latos’ three-year run puts him at the edge of the NL’s upper tier starting pitchers. Overall Lato’s groundballs are on the climb, his walks are decreasing each year (earlier this season, Latos went a stretch of five straight starts with less than 2 BB) and his strikeout rate is virtually the same, pushing his command to new heights. 14 starts into 2013 and Mat Latos has proven to be as reliable and consistent as any pitcher in the game. Latos has faced the Pirates five times in the last two seasons, with four of those resulting in pure gems. In his career, he has faced them eight times, where he is 4-0 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 51 IP. The Pirates have really been gripping the bats tight, as they have a .234 BA in the month of June.

Charlie Morton is making just his second MLB start of the season, due to last June's Tommy John surgery. He did make four starts at Indianapolis (Triple-AAA) prior to being called up, in which he walked 10 batters in 19 innings. In his forst start this year at home, Morton went five innings against the Giants and allowed seven hits and four runs in a 10-0 loss. He has pitched against the Reds 12 times in his career, going 4-6 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Now making just his second start in the past 369 days and not having the luxury of pitching in a pitcher’s park, Charlie Morton is likely to get blown up here.


Kansas City +106 over CLEVELAND

It may surprise you to learn that the Royals have won 11 of their past 13 games and we’ll step in and ride this hot team here with Earvin Santana throwing. Santana is having a great year and it comes with full skills support. Santana has seen his swinging strike rate jump from 8.4% in 2012 to 12.9% this year. This after he posted a 21/4 K/BB in 23 IP during spring training. Santana has elite control (13 BB in 92 IP) a good strikeout rate and a strong groundball tilt of 49%. Santana’s deadly slider and his ability to hit the strike zone with all of his pitches make him extremely difficult to face. Over his last three starts, Santana is 2-0 with an 0.83 ERA and his chances of thriving again tonight are much better than that of his mound opponent.

Ubaldo Jimenez has shown flashes from his Colorado ace days at times this season. His skills vs. LH bats have been some of the best in the game. However, the Royals will have at least six RH bats in the lineup tonight so before you speculate on a re-birth, note that his control has been horrible vs. RH bats, making Jimenez a big risk. Jiminez has walked 34 batters in 68 frames and has an xERA of 4.63. He also has a troublesome 1.37 WHIP but a high strand rate over the past month has kept his troubles hidden. Also note that Jiminez has been terrible at home in six starts with a 2-3 record, 17 walks issued and a 7.53 ERA over 28 innings. Wrong side favored.


L.A. ANGELS -1½ +120 over Seattle

Jeremy Bonderman is coming off back-to-back starts in which he allowed a meager 6 hits and one earned run over 14 innings. However, both those starts came at home against Houston and a then struggling Yankees squad. His good results over those two games are a product of Safeco Field and nothing else. Bonderman has not regained the form that made him an average pitcher with the Tigers a few years back and he’s not going to thrive on the road like he did at home. In his first start of the year at Target Field, Bonderman was hammered for nine hits and seven runs in 4.2 frames and you can expect something similar here. Bonderman missed all of 2010 and 2011. He’s a two-pitch pitcher now with a fastball and slider and he rarely misses a bat. The 30-year-old put up less-than-impressive numbers at Triple-A this year, with a 4.52 ERA and only 33 K’s in 63.2 innings to go along with an ugly 1.49 WHIP. Remember, that is at Triple-A. With that kind of strikeout rate, the most likely scenario here is that Bonderman is torched again, just like he was in his only other road start.

The Angels are heating up again with four wins in five games and having scored five runs or more in all five games. In total, the Halos have scored 36 times over their past five ball games and have hit .370 over that span. Joe Blanton’s surface stats aren’t pretty with just one win and 10 losses to go along with a 5.87 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. However, he’s precisely the reason why we buy skills and not stats. Blanton has elite control with just 14 walks in 77 frames. He has a strong groundball/fly-ball profile of 47%/31% and his strikeout rate is slightly above average too. In fact, over his last two starts, Blanton has walked two and struck out 17 over 13 frames. The culprit has been Blanton’s extremely unlucky 38% hit rate and 65% strand rate. Those rates will normalize and Blanton’s ERA will come way down. With just one win in 13 starts and pure bad luck, expect the Angels to be a little extra jacked up here in support of Blanton to get him that second elusive win. The Angels hung an 11 on the M’s last night. Against Bonderman, the Angels are very likely to put up another crooked number.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA Finals action report: Sharps buy back Spurs, total on the rise

The San Antonio Spurs are just one win away from shocking the defending champion Miami Heat in the NBA Finals, taking a 3-2 series lead into Game 6 Tuesday. Oddsmakers have set the Heat as sizable home favorites with their backs against the wall.

We talk with Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker for CarbonSports.ag, about the betting action and where the odds could end up before the 9 p.m. ET tipoff.

San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat – Open: -6.5, Move: -7.5, Move: -6.5

This line moved as much as a full point at some books with early action flooding in on the Heat following their Game 5 loss in San Antonio.

That forced books to jump from -6.5 to -7 and eventually as high as -7.5, before sharp money bought back the Spurs. That wiseguy action has many books trimming the line back to its original number and crossing their fingers that the final score doesn’t land squarely on seven.

“Late yesterday afternoon, we went to Heat -7.5 because money kept showing on the favorite and respecting the sharp action that laid us 6.5, we wanted to shed some of our Heat liability,” Stewart told Covers. “Early this morning, we took a decent size bet from one of our sharper players on the Spurs +7.5 and we quickly went to Heat -7. At this point, we’re now dead even on this game and as long as it doesn’t land seven, we should make money.”

As for the Game 6 total, sportsbooks opened the over/under at 190.5 and have moved to 191 or 191.5. According to Stewart, early money was playing the over and about 70 percent of the total action is leaning toward a high-scoring game.

“I suspect well tick it up one more time and go to 192 at some point today,” says Stewart. “With the last three games going over and the last game seeing a total of 218 points scored, I can’t help but think we’re going to see a ton of recreational money backing the over tonight.”

CarbonSports.ag is currently dealing Miami as a -130 series favorite with the final two games scheduled in South Beach, thanks to a 2-3-2 NBA Finals format. San Antonio is currently set as a +110 underdog to win the NBA title, despite holding a 3-2 series edge.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lang

75 DIME
MAJOR WAGER
MONEY MOVE
Spurs/Heat UNDER

BONUS PLAY

30 DIME
MONEY MOVE
Heat -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

Heat Series Prices-125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vincent Rizzo Sports

MLB PREMIUM PLAY

ATLANTA -178 (1.78U) (GAME 2)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SB Professor Late MLB Pick 6/18

930. Houston Astros -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Budin - CEO

100 Dime play from the Brooklyn College Boys on Miami in the FIRST HALF in Game Six on Tuesday night at home against San Antonio. The Heat are -4 at a price of -110 in the FIRST HALF of the game at the majority of books I've checked in Vegas and offshore as of 8:40 AM Eastern on Tuesday morning.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ocal Sports

Braves -1.5 game 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer | NBASides - Tuesday, Jun 18 2013 9:07PM

712 MIA -6.5 vs 711 SAN double-dime bet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King Creole | MLB Total - Tuesday, Jun 18 2013 7:05PM

901 WAS / 902 PHI UNDER 7 single-dime bet