6-22-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hot Chicks Picks/Britney DeLuca

MLB
Take COLORADO +115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's National League betting cheat sheet and tips

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Saturday's action in the National League:

Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals (-126, 7.5)

Hot pitcher: Colorado stater Jhoulys Chacin was a model of efficiency against Philadelphia on Sunday, allowing two runs while throwing just 86 pitches over 8 2/3 innings.

Cold pitcher: Nats hurler Dan Haren allowed four runs in six innings on Monday against the Phillies, dropping to 0-5 with two no-decisions over his last seven starts.

Weather: Sunny skies and temperatures in the low-80s. Wind will blow out to left field at six mph.

Key betting stat: The Rockies 2-6 since shortstop Troy Tulowitzki suffered a broken rib.

Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants (-149, 7.5)

Hot pitcher: Marlins rookie Jacob Turner has allowed just one home run in his first 25 innings this season.

Cold pitcher: Giants closer Jeremy Affeldt is tied for NL lead with four blown saves this season.

Weather: Temperatures in the high-60s and wind blowing out to right field at 13 mph.

Key betting stat: The Marlins have won seven of their last nine games overall against the Giants.

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (-116, 8.5)

Hot pitcher: Since being called up from Las Vegas, Mets prospect Carlos Torres has given up just one hit in 5 1/3 innings of work out of the pen.

Cold pitcher: The Phillies have torched Mets starter Dillon Gee for 11 runs already this season, contributing to his 2-3 record and 7.49 ERA against Philadelphia in eight career appearances (seven starts).

Weather: Sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-80s. Wind will blow out to center field at eight mph.

Key betting stat: The over is 5-1 in Gee's last six starts vs. the Phillies.

Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers (N/A, N/A)

Hot pitcher: Brewers reliever Francisco Rodriguez has given up just one earned run this season and boasts a WHIP of 0.70.

Cold pitcher: Braves starter Tim Hudson is mired in one of the longest victory droughts of his career, going 0-5 over his last eight starts.

Weather: Retractable roof.

Key betting stat: The Braves are 0-7 in the last seven meetings in Milwaukee.

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres (+102, 7.5)

Hot pitcher: In his last two starts, Padres starter Edinson Volquez has yielded a total of four runs in 12 frames.

Cold pitcher: Dodgers starter Zack Greinke gave up five runs on eight hits in five innings in last outing against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Weather: Skies will be mostly clear and sunny and temperatures will be in the mid-60s. Wind will blow from left to right at five mph.

Key betting stat: San Diego has won eight straight home games.

Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks (-117, 8)

Hot pitcher: Reds starter Mike Leake posted another gem Monday against Pittsburgh, which managed just a run and six hits in seven frames.

Cold pitcher: Reds reliever Curtis Partch was torched in his one inning of work Friday. Partch surrendered four runs on three hits and walked a pair of batters.

Weather: Retractable roof.

Key betting stat: The Diamondbacks are 8-1 in Corbin's last nine home starts.

Interleague

Houston Astros at Chicago Cubs (N/A, N/A)

Hot pitcher: Cubbies starter Travis Wood owns a 3-2 mark while yielding just two homers in nine career outings against Houston.

Cold pitcher: 'Stros pitcher Bud Norris saw his losing skid extend to three games after yielding four runs on eight hits in six innings in a 4-2 setback to the Chicago White Sox on Monday.

Weather: There will be a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures will be in the low-90s and wind will blow out to left field at 13 mph.

Key betting stat: The Cubs are 0-4 in their last four games with Ron Kulpa behind home plate calling balls and strikes.

Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals (-174, 8)

Hot pitcher: Cards starter Shelby Miller is 5-1 with a 0.99 ERA in seven home outings.

Cold pitcher: Rangers starter Martin Perez will make his second start this season. He allowed four runs (three earned) and nine hits over 5 1/3 innings taking the loss against the Diamondbacks in his previous outing.

Weather: Temperatures in the mid-80s and a 30 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow from right to left at 10 mph.

Key betting stat: The under is 6-1-1 in the Rangers' last eight games versus a right-handed starter.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's American League betting cheat sheet and tips

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Saturday's action in the American League:

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees (-151, 8)

Hot pitcher: Rays starter Alex Colome will make his second start after being called up for a spot start at Miami on May 30. Colome allowed an unearned run on five hits in 5 2/3 innings while striking out seven in that start.

Cold pitcher: C.C. Sabathia was reached for seven runs and eight hits in seven innings to suffer a loss at Tampa Bay on May 26.

Weather: Temperatures in the low-80s and sunny skies. Winds will blow from right field to left field at 10 mph.

Key betting stat: The over is 5-1-1 in Sabathia's last seven starts overall.

Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays (+105, 9.5)

Hot pitcher: Chien-Ming Wang was masterful over seven shutout innings, allowing five hits against Texas in his previous start.

Cold pitcher: O's reliever Brian Matusz took the loss in Friday's game and now has a 7.56 ERA in June.

Weather: Retractable roof.

Key betting stat: Toronto's bullpen has allowed just four earned runs in 58 2/3 innings this month.

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals (-131, 9)

Hot pitcher: Royals starter Wade Davis halted a five-start winless drought, limiting the Tampa Bay Rays – his former team – to two runs and five hits over six frames in Sunday’s 5-3 victory.

Cold pitcher: Sox starter Jose Quintana struggled in his last turn, throwing only 59 of his 104 pitches for strikes

Weather: Sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-90s. Wind will blow out to left field at 19 mph.

Key betting stat: Kansas City has won seven of its last nine at Kauffman Stadium following its club-record 11-game home losing streak.

Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians (-158, 8.5)

Hot pitcher: Cleveland sends Corey Kluber to the hill Saturday. Kluber is emerging as a top-of-the-rotation starter, giving up only one run in 16 innings while winning his last two turns.

Cold pitcher: Twinkies starter P.J. Walters is 0-2 since winning his first two starts of the season, allowing four runs and nine hits over 5 1/3 innings in his last outing against Detroit.

Weather: A 30 percent chance of rain and temperatures in the mid-80s. Wind will blow out to right field at nine mph.

Key betting stat: Cleveland’s starting pitchers boast a 2.83 ERA over the last 11 games, averaging a little over 6 1/3 innings per outing.

Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers (-182, 9)

Hot pitcher: Tigers starter Max Scherzer is 5-0 in his last six starts while giving up a total of nine runs and yielding 22 hits over 42 innings in that span.

Cold pitcher: Detroit reliever Phil Coke gave up two earned runs in his one inning of work in Detroit's loss Friday. Coke has given up four earned runs in his last 3 1/3 innings overall.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s and wind will blow from right to left at 11 mph. There is a 30 percent chance of rain.

Key betting stat: The over is 5-0-1 in Scherzer's last six starts versus the Red Sox.

Oakland A's at Seattle Mariners (+121, 7.5)

Hot pitcher: A's closer Grant Balfour ran his consecutive saves streak to 36 on Friday.

Cold pitcher: Mariners starter Aaron Harang gave up four runs on 12 hits - the most he has allowed since Aug. 5, 2011 - in five frames of an 11-3 loss at the Los Angeles Angels on Monday.

Weather: Retractable roof.

Key betting stat: The Mariners are 6-13 in their last 19 games with umpire Gerry Davis behind home plate.

Interleague

Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Angels (N/A, N/A)

Hot pitcher: Pittsburgh closer Jason Grilli, who blew his first save of the season at Cincinnati on Wednesday, was back to his old self Friday. He threw 10 strikes in 12 pitches en route to earning his 26th save of the year.

Cold pitcher: Bucs starter Francisco Liriano has not fared well against the Angels in his career, going 1-4 with a 6.69 ERA in eight games (seven starts).

Weather: Sunny skies and temperatures in the low-70s. Wind will blow out to center field at six mph.

Key betting stat: The Pirates are 4-0 in their last four interleague games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Saturday, June 22

Four games, three OT finishes; makes you want to take underdogs, no? Bruins won 11 of last 14 games overall (4-3 in OT games) since rallying from down 4-1 at the 11:00 mark in Game 7 of 1st round vs Toronto. Boston allowed one goal in the two games they won in series so far; they allowed 4-6 goals in the losses, both OT games. Chicago is 5-0 so far in playoffs when game goes over total, 4-5 if game stays under, 3-2 if total pushes. Hawks won nine of last 12 games since being down 3-1 in Detroit series. Chicago finally scored on power play last game, their only goal on last 24 power plays- they're 10-2 at home in playoffs, with last three home games all going to OT. Bruins are 5-4 when playoff game goes over- they won last seven that stayed under the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris Jordan

Revenge Game of the Month
200♦ MLB Winner
E-Z Pitching Mismatch
Nationls RL listing pitchers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Harry Bondi

MLB Free play

MINNESOTA (+140) over Cleveland
7:15 p.m. ET
We cashed in with a nice underdog on Boston last night and we'll do it again today here on the free pick page with the Twins. The great Bill Parcells used to always say, "You are what you are." So, despite the fact that Cleveland starter Corey Kluber has been terrific in two straight starts, it doesn't change the fact that for his career he is a sub-.500 pitcher with an ERA of 4.43 and before the last two appearances his team had lost six of his seven starts. But yet the oddsmaker has overreacted to what's happened most recently and installed Kluber today as a huge favorite. Remember, Kluber is just 1-6 with a 4.19 ERA in his home park in 14 appearances and the Twins are playing as well as they have all season, winning four of their last six. Let's go against the inflated favorite and grab the dog.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

San Francisco Giants

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Todays Best Bets

(5 UNITS) Nats
(5 UNITS) Phillies
(5 UNITS) Athletics
(4 UNITS)Reds/D-Backs - UNDER 8
(3 UNITS) Orioles
(3 UNITS) Giants

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

Miami +137 over SAN FRANCISCO

The Marlins have now won 11 of their past 20 games. They came in here and won the first two games of this four-game set and today they get their biggest advantage on the hill of the three games so far with Jacob Turner opposing Barry Zito. Zito’s skills continue to be one of the worst among starters in all of baseball and that includes Triple AAA as well. Any success he's had is strictly a product of this park and pure luck. Zito is still walking too many hitters and striking out few. His 4.67 ERA is flattering when you consider he has a 1.59 WHIP, a 29% line-drive rate and a fly-ball bias profile. Most pitchers that have some success at this level have at least one go-to pitch that they utilize when they’re in trouble but Zito doesn’t have any pitch to go to. All of his offerings are well below average and he’s proven over and over that he can’t get out of trouble on his own. If this were a playoff game or a close pennant race in late August or September, the Giants would not have this guy anywhere near the mound. The Giants are sending him out there every fifth day because they have to pay him 20M this year and they’re not about to sit a guy that they have to cut a check to every week for $384,000. Unfortunately for Zito, this is an afternoon game that goes off at 1:05 PM in San Fran and AT&T Park is a much better place for hitter’s during the day because that damp nighttime air is not present. Zito gets credit for pitching every fifth day and winning some games but that doesn’t mean he’s worthy of backing. The metrics tell us just the opposite.

Jacob Turner is a guy to keep your eye on. He’s pitching behind the shadows of Jose Fernandez and with just four starts after being called up, he’s also well under the radar. In those four starts, Turner has yet to lose. With some run support, he could easily be 4-0. Turner has allowed three earned runs or less in all of his starts. Jacob Turner comes in with a 2.18 ERA and a skills supported 3.44 xERA. In 2011, this kid was a top prospect in the Tigers organization, who was virtually unhittable in the minors when he was on his game. He has pedigree and upside and he’s just 21 years old. This is the player that the Marlins received for Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante last July and the Fish did their homework. Turner had an elite groundball rate in the minors and he’s carried it over to this level. After four starts, Turner’s GB rate is 56%. He exhibits well above average control of an 89-98 mph fastball with late sink and a sharp-breaking curveball. Turner is a forgotten man because he’s had some setbacks since being a first round pick (9th overall) in 2009 but he has all the tools to be a front-line starter for years. Momentum, price and a huge pitching edge for the visitor make this choice an easy one for us.


N.Y. Mets +107 over PHILADELPHIA

The Phillies 19 day games are the fewest in the majors and they’ve won just seven of them. Jonathan Pettibone has kept the Phillies competitive for most of his 11 starts but now that the book is out on him, his very average arm and stuff is starting to get exposed. He doesn’t walk batters at an excessive pace but he doesn’t strike out batters at an acceptable clip either. Pettibone’s solid ERA in his first seven starts was a result of a fortunate strand rate more than skill. Over his last four starts, that strand rate has normalized and his ERA over that stretch was 4.62. xERA of 4.55 points to a below average pitcher. The Phillies have lost three of Pettibone’s last four starts by scores of 10-5, 9-1 and 9-2. His only win over that span was against the Marlins. Pitching at this park as the chalk, Pettibone has little appeal.

Dillon Gee has a high 37% hit% with runners on base compared to a norm of 27-28% for NL pitchers. This has been a primary reason for his inflated ERA. That said, his base skills with runners on base have been excellent for two years running and after a rough start, Gee’s velocity is returning as his arm strength has come back. Geee has allowed two runs or less in four straight starts. Over that span, covering 29 innings, he’s struck out 32 batters while walking four. That includes his last two against St. Louis and Atlanta. Gee’s 4.56 ERA is one of the more misleading numbers in all of baseball and the proof is in his 3.13 xERA. You won't be able to buy low on Gee for much longer and the fact that he’s a dog here is bordering on ludicrous. The Mets have won four of five and have an outstanding opportunity of making it five of six here.


Chicago +122 over KANSAS CITY

The White Sox went off for nine runs yesterday and they have quietly scored four runs or more in six straight games. With just one win over that span and just two wins over their last nine games, Chicago’s improved offense is going a little bit unnoticed, thus helping to create this overlay. The South Side has a great chance of keeping it going here against Wade Davis. Here’s Davis’s story from last season: Struggling starting pitcher with declining strikeout rate adds a couple of MPH to his FB and slider out of the pen and voila, a potential closer is born. Those who pegged Wade Davis as a sleeper entering 2013 probably hoped he'd make a seamless transition from relief to rotation, a story we've become accustomed to in recent years. However, Davis already has a history of mediocre results as a starter and he has not fared any better in his second attempt. While remnants of his impressive relief skills remain, his return to the rotation has basically been a bust. Davis has been unable to maintain his strikeout gains from 2012 and while it's still above his previous norms in 2013, it hasn't been enough to offset his poor control (75 IP - 30/65 – BB/K’s). Davis’s four-seam fastball velocity has fallen from 93 mph to 91, where it was during his starting days in Tampa. His ERA has taken a beating thanks to an abnormally high hit%, but it's partially a product of batters making strong contact off him (30% line-drive %). Davis has failed to make it to the sixth inning in nine of his 14 starts and with an alarming 1.74 WHIP, he seems unfit to make it as a starter in the majors.

Meanwhile, Jose Quintana just keeps refining his skills and improving. In his last two starts, Qunitana’s groundball rate was an off-the-charts 64%. He’s the only pitcher since June 11 to slow down the Blue Jays when he pitched into the seventh inning against them and allowed just two earned runs. Qunitana’s line-drive rate is 12 points lower than his mound opponents’ at 18% and while he can sometimes walk a tightrope, he’s a much better option taking back a price than Davis is spotting one. The Royals had been sailing along recently with 11 wins in 13 games but a 4-3 loss in Cleveland on Tuesday in game that they should have won four times over (bad base-running, numerous opportunities to score, a blown save, etc) has turned into three straight losses and this one is probably going to make it four for this streaky host.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin
MLBPredictions

2 UNIT = Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks - UNDER 8 RUNS (-105)
Listed Pitchers: Leake vs Corbin
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)

Tonight’s game features two of the hottest pitchers in the National League. The Reds go with Mike Leake who is 7-3 on the season with a2.64 ERA, .266 OBA and 1.22 WHIP. Over his last 7 starts he has a 1.15 ERA and has allowed one earned run against or less in six of those seven starts. Over 7 road starts Leake is 5-1 with a 2.34 ERA. The Diamondbacks go with Patrick Corbin tonight, and they are 13-1 when he starts this year. He is 9-0 with a 2.28 ERA, .212 OBA and 1.01 WHIP. At home he is 5-0 with a microscopic 1.71 ERA, .206 OBA and 1.01 WHIP. These two teams met last night for the first time this season with the Dbacks winning 11-5. Before that game the Dbacks had gone UNDER the total in 4 straight and 5 of 6, and the Reds had gone UNDER the total in 6 straight (with a push at 8). Historically these two teams play to the UNDER with the UNDER 42-17-4 in their last 63 meetings. The UNDER is 6-1 in Leake’s last 7 starts and 4-0 in his last 4 road starts. The UNDER is 7-1 in Corbin’s last 8 starts and 5-2 in his last 7 with a lower total set between 7-8.5. I’m on UNDER 8 runs tonight for 2 units.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

1unit wagers/Steven Kane

MLB
Indians(-145)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

bookiemonsters

pod bruins under 5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Baltimore at Toronto (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Toronto +1.5 runs -150 (runline)

The Toronto Blue Jays were expected to be a strong contender in the rugged AL East, but they suffered a lot of injuries, and simply were not living up to anywhere near the expectations. That has all changed, as this team has finally hit their stride. They come into this contest as the hottest team in baseball with nine straight wins. They have outscored their opponents in these games by an amazing 56-20 margin. There is certainly value here to ask this team to just be competitive at home, and grabbing them on the plus side of the runline certainly affords a valued play in this one. Play Toronto on the run line.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King Creole MLB Total Sat, 06/22/13 - 7:15 PM

dime bet - 920 CLE / 919 MIN - UNDER 8.5

4:15pm PT - 7:15pm ET / #919-920 / Minnesota Twins w/ Walters @ Cleveland Indians w/ Kluber
1* Play on: UNDER the TOTAL

Rounding out our "UNDER" Umpires on Saturday is ERIC COOPER, who's also in the Top Five for the year (4-9-1 O/U - 7.9 combined RPG). He'll be working behind the dish in the Cleveland / Minnesota game. In American League parks, he's gone 1-5 O/U on the year (7.8 RPG). And from a current-form standpoint, Cooper comes in on a 0-3-1 O/U run in his last 4 games (7.0 RPG)... and 1-5-1 O/U in his last 7 (6.7 RPG).

Just like in our other two games, we have starting pitchers going in Cleveland that are in very good current form. PJ Walters of the visiting Twins has looked very impressive in his 5 total starts on the year (3.23 ERA). He comes in on a 3-game UNDER run in his last 3 starts (2.25 ERA / 5.7 combined runs per game).

Cory Kluber of the Indians has basically had only ONE bad start all season long. That was way back on May 10th vs the Tigers. Since then, his ERA is only 2.51. He enters Saturday's start pitching 8 full innings in each of his last two starts... and has allowed only ONE earned run (0.56 ERA).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer | MLB ML - Saturday, Jun 22 2013 4:05PM

ML 903 NYM +109 vs 904 PHI double-dime bet