6-23-13

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Accu-Score MLB

4 STAR TOTALS 151-120, 55.7% +1900 -

MIA 957 vs SF 958 -- Under 7
CIN 959 vs ARI 960 -- Under 8.5
CHW 969 vs KC 970 -- Under 7.5
TB 973 vs NYY 974 -- Under 9.5
TEX 975 vs STL 976 -- Under 7.5

NL WEST DIV GAME SV 53-35, 60.2% +1838 -

LAD 961 vs SD 962 -- Value on Los Angeles Dodgers +145

ML-Home Wins 55 to 59.9% 124-75, 62.3% +1797 -

HOU 977 vs CHC 978 -- Over 50% on Chicago Cubs -159

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Bob Balfe

LA Angels -135

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SPORTS WAGERS

TORONTO -1½ +124 over Baltimore

You think the Blue Jays are looking forward to coming to the park today? Here’s a team that has won 10 in a row and will play in front of an expected crowd of 45,000 + today. The Jays are crushing just about every pitcher they see and will show little mercy or sympathy on Freddy Garcia. Garcia is a washed up, two-pitch pitcher, one of which is an 87-mph fastball. Adam Lind (7 for 11) and Jose Bautista (7 for 14) have 14 hits combined against Garcia in 25 career AB’s and right now those are two of the hottest bats in MLB. Garcia's average length of start this season is 4.1 innings. He strikes out one batter every two innings. He has a line-drive rate of 28% and he’s done all of that with luck on his side that includes a high strand rate of 81%. When that normalizes, as it likely will today. Garcia will deliver a pitching line that looks something like 3 IP – 8 hits 8R 8ER 2 BB 0 K’s.

Josh Johnson has made just seven starts this season. As is usually the case with so few starts, one terrible start (6 ER in 1.3 IP) is skewing his 4.38 ERA. In two starts since coming off the DL, Johnson has whiffed 20 batters in 19.1 innings and has induced an elite 58% groundballs with an even more elite 13% line-drive rate. Johnson is flashing the skills that made him one of the most dominate starters in the league a couple of years ago with the Marlins and assuming he’s healthy, he has a great chance to dominate again. Huge pitching mismatch here and it’s also worth noting that the Jays pen has allowed one earned run in the past 27.1 innings. The beat goes on.

CLEVELAND -1½ +141 over Minnesota

Pedro Hernandez is an emergency replacement for Mike Pelfrey today and that’s fine by us because Hernandez may even be worse than Pelfrey. Hernandez has been bouncing around the minors since 2007, having pitched at different levels for an incredibly high 11 different teams. This season he’s pitched at both Triple AAA Rochester and he’s also worked in relief out of the Twins bullpen as well as starting two games. Hernandez’s brief bouts everywhere he pitches keep confirming that he’s very hittable. A new bout occurred this year with Minnesota (12.2 H/9), and several of those hits turned into homers (6 HR in 32.1 IP), adding up to a 5.85 ERA (5.06 xERA). Add a 1.67 WHIP and an ugly 38%/26%/36% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile and one can understand why nobody has been able to give this guy a permanent home. With possibly the worst starting pitching staff in the history of MLB, Pedro Hernandez couldn’t even crack it.

If the Indians had any other pitcher going here besides Carlos Carrasco, they would be a much lower price spotting 1½ runs, probably somewhere in the -1½ +105 range. Carrasco’s surface stats are really ugly (0-2 - 8.40 ERA – 6/7 BB/K’s) but it’s a really small, 15 inning sample size that hides Carrasco’s profit potential. Carrasco missed all of 2012 after recovering from Sept 2011 TJS surgery. Before that injury, he was building nicely on a 2010 surprise season with tightening command and a bolstering groundball profile. Not a soft-tosser (average fastball of 93 MPH), Carrasco went out and threw a 7.1 innings, four-hit, one run gem in his last start against the Royals but the Tribe lost 2-1. Before his call-up, Carrasco was dealing it at Triple AAA Columbus with a 2-0 record in nine starts covering 47 frames. He had a strong BB/K ratio of 14/50 and a nifty 1.13 WHIP and 3.21 ERA. Carrasco has the skills to thrive and is one of the best buy-low targets of the day.

MILWAUKEE +122 over Atlanta

The Crew have won the first two games of this series by identical 2-0 scores, meaning the Braves have been shutout in 24 straight innings dating back to Thursday’s 4-3 loss to the Mets. Atlanta has dropped five of six and they have scored seven runs total in those five losses. It may also surprise you to learn that no team in the majors, besides the Astros has struck out more times than these Braves so when they face a strikeout pitcher, they are a team in trouble. Alfredo Figaro not only strikes out a lot of the batters he faces, he also has a solid groundball rate of 50%. Figaro has elite command and his 93.5 average fastball velocity is the third best in the league behind Stephen Strasburg and Matt Harvey. The window for buying low on Figaro is closing quickly and we’re not about to miss out on this opportunity.

Paul Maholm is 7-6 with a 3.37 ERA and while he’s definitely raised some eyebrows this season, especially early on, his skills say that he’s exactly the same mediocre pitcher that he’s always been. Sure, you can add a little more guile and maturity to his profile but what you can’t add his velocity or movement to his pitches. Maholm has been aided by a fortunate 88% strand rate in his seven wins thus far. Prior to striking out 7 Mets in his last start, Maholm had whiffed four batters or less in seven straight and in nine of his past 10 starts. He’s also benefitted greatly from pitching at Turner Field, where he is 4-2 with a 1.80 ERA. However, this game is at Miller Park and Maholm’s road numbers tell a completely different story. In 53.1 innings on the road, Maholm has walked 21 batters, has a barely acceptable 1.30 WHIP and has a 4.89 ERA. This park is unforgiving to pitchers with average stuff and Paul Maholm has always had that. This year is no exception.

Pittsburgh +122 over L.A. ANGELS

There have been a lot of impressive pitching performances this season but perhaps the most impressive of them all was Charlie Morton’s second start of the year at Great American Ballpark last week. Precisely a year removed from Tommy John surgery, Morton’s first start of the year came against the Giants in which he threw five innings of seven-hit ball and allowed two earned runs. Morton struck out five in that game and walked one. Then came his second start in which Morton shutout the Reds in 5.1 frames of three-hit ball. Morton maintained his elite groundball rate in those two starts by inducing 21 grounders against the 45 total batters he faced. That’s a 59% groundball rate when factoring in his seven K’s and just one walk. Morton was dominant and needed just 61 pitches to breeze through 5.1 frames at one of the best hitter parks in the league. Morton features a nasty sinker that he throws 82% of the time and hitters can’t do a thing with it. He’ll now face an Angels team that keeps losing a lot more games than they win and that has been outscored 11-3 in the first two games of this series.

Joe Blanton isn’t as bad as his 1-10 record and 5.62 ERA suggests but it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Angels have lost 12 of Blanton’s 14 starts. It’s also hard to overlook the 15 bombs that Blanton has surrendered in 83 innings of work, not to mention a .325 BAA. At home Blanton is 0-4 with a 5.70 ERA. Overall, the Halos have lost with Blanton on the hill to the Astros twice, the Mariners twice, and to the Twins in Minnesota by a final score of 8-2. One game he didn’t lose was against the White Sox in which the Angels scored 12 times and won 12-9. The Angels have been a horrible favorite the entire season. With Blanton pitching, a horrible favorite is an understatement.

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5Lines

Total Line for 06/23/2013
(Won last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
MLB - Colorado Rockies : o7.5
Cost: -110

Run Line for 06/23/2013
(Won last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
MLB - San Francisco Giants : -1.5
Cost: +105

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Dwayne Bryant 19-2 (90.5%) on Last 21 Bets

3 Units (Max Bet)

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS -1.5 +110

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Stephen Nover | MLB Total - Sunday, Jun 23 2013 2:10PM
955 ATL / 956 MIL OVER 8.5 Hilton double-dime bet

Stephen Nover | MLB ML - Sunday, Jun 23 2013 4:10PM
ML 959 CIN (-125) Hilton vs 960 ARI double-dime bet

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Goodfella

2* over Cleve/minn

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Soulhat Sports

Braves/Brewers Over 9

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Scott Landau Sunday:

LAD +145 / MIN +141 / CWS + 175 / TEX +185

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SB Professor Early MLB Picks 6/23

954. Philadelphia Phillies +119
980. Los Angeles Angels -137

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Erin Rynning

Pitt

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Gil alexander

2* Colorado
2* nyy
2* miami

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We cover spreads

4* Milwaukee
5* phil

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Teddy Covers

10* SD Padres

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John Ryan

Miami
cws