6-26-13

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See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN

Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Lookahead spot

History could repeat itself when the Atlanta Falcons visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as 1-point road favorites in Week 11 of the upcoming NFL season. Last year, the Falcons squeaked out a 24-23 win at Raymond James Stadium, pushing with the 1-point closing spread in Week 12. That game happened to precede a Thursday Night Football showdown with the rival New Orleans Saints.

Atlanta finds itself in the exact same lookahead spot in Week 11, tagged once again as a 1-point road favorite at Tampa Bay before a short week of preparation for the Saints on Thursday night in Week 12. The Bucs gave the Falcons trouble last year, handing them their lone home loss in Week 17 (with all the starters in action) and covering for those who grabbed Tampa Bay +2 early at home in Week 12.

Letdown spot

No matter which side of the border you reside, you’ve seen the massive devastation caused by flooding in the Calgary, Alberta area over the past week. The last thing on peoples’ minds is the start of the CFL season. The Calgary Stampeders open the schedule against the BC Lions at home Friday, with oddsmakers tabbing the Stamps as 3-point chalk. Some may point to the New Orleans Saints’ thrilling home opener following Hurricane Katrina in 2006 as an example of how a team can lift the spirits of an entire city. However, that game came a year after the events of Katrina.

Parts of Calgary and its surrounding areas are still fighting off the floods. While McMahon Stadium was untouched, many of the roadways and transportation to the game are down and players living in the downtown core have had their homes evacuated. The team has tried to go about its business as usual, but no one would blame the Stamps for a lack of focus in Week 1.

Schedule spot

The Cleveland Indians and Chicago White Sox put in double duty this week, playing two games Friday – at 5:10 p.m. ET and 8:40 p.m. ET at U.S. Cellular Field. The Indians are second and chasing the Detroit Tigers in the American League Central while the White Sox are 10.5 games back of the Tigers in last place. Cleveland and Chicago have met five times already this year, with the Tribe holding a 3-2 edge.

The two division rivals played a doubleheader last May, with Cleveland winning both games. In fact, the Indians have been one of the best doubleheader bets in baseball since 2010. They’ve gone 13-3 in that span while the White Sox are 7-5 in that same stretch.

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Three good teams with bad bullpens burning MLB bettors
By JASON LOGAN

No matter how good a ball team is, a bad bullpen can spoil the party quicker than your parents catching the early flight home from Florida.

Those late-inning collapses especially sting when you're wagering on a good team priced as lofty favorites on the MLB moneylines. Here are three contending teams having their solid efforts - and backers’ bankrolls - wiped out by unreliable relievers:

Detroit Tigers (42-32, -5.89 units)

Starter ERA: 3.58 (sixth in MLB)
Bullpen ERA: 3.99 (21st in MLB)

The Tigers glaring weakness is their bullpen. That statement was punctuated when the club dropped closer Jose Valverde last week after three blown saves and 5.59 ERA out of the pen. Detroit is leaning on Joaquin Benoit to become the new closer while potential pen additions iron out issues in Triple-A Toledo. Lefty Phil Coke has his days but is 0-4 with an ERA north of 6.00.

Cincinnati Reds (45-32, +3.77 units)

Starter ERA: 3.23 (second in MLB)
Bullpen ERA: 3.95 (19th in MLB)

Cincinnati’s relievers came through for bettors as -145 favorites at Arizona Monday night which was almost enough to erase a 5-3 loss to the Pirates last Thursday, in which reliever Alfredo Simon coughed up three runs in the seventh. The Reds have watched leads dissolve in the final innings over the past two weeks, with the bullpen tallying 10 blown saves on the year. Injuries to key relievers and the downfall of closer Aroldis Chapman, who has blown three of those saves, are the main culprits.

Boston Red Sox (45-33, +5.05)

Starter ERA: 3.80 (10th in MLB)
Bullpen ERA: 4.12 (24th in MLB)

The chess match between the Red Sox and Yankees in the American League East could come down to bullpens. New York’s relievers have blown an MLB-low three saves so far while Boston’s bullpen has given 11 wins away in the final inning. The BoSox took recent losses to Detroit and Tampa Bay after their backups crumbled, forcing manager John Farrell, notorious for over-managing his bullpen, to strip Andrew Bailey of the closer role in place of southpaw Andrew Miller, who promptly blew a save in his first outing as closer.

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For Thursday's Draft:

NBA Draft: Oddsmakers pick Noel to go No. 1

The 2013 NBA Draft will be held at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn on Thursday night and sportsbooks are slowly releasing props for the highly-anticipated event.

Here are a few being offered at Sports Interaction:

Player drafted first overall

Nerlens Noel -158
Otto Porter +225
Alex Len +300
Ben McLemore +1200
Victor Oladipo +1200
Trey Burke +3000

Kelly Olynyk draft position

First 15 picks +145
16th pick or later -208

Anthony Bennett draft position

First five picks +110
Sixth pick or later -158

Non-NCAA Euro players drafted in first round (Not including Alex Len)

Over 3.5 -133
Under 3.5 +220

Any non-NCAA Euro player drafted in Top 10 (Not including Alex Len)

Yes +250
No -385

Here is the complete draft order for the first round:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Orlando Magic
3. Washington Wizards
4. Charlotte Bobcats
5. Phoenix Suns
6. New Orleans Pelicans
7. Sacramento Kings
8. Detroit Pistons
9. Minnesota Timberwolves
10. Portland Trail Blazers
11. Philadelphia 76ers
12. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Toronto)
13. Dallas Mavericks
14. Utah Jazz
15. Milwaukee Bucks
16. Boston Celtics
17. Atlanta Hawks
18. Atlanta Hawks (from Houston via Brooklyn)
19. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Los Angeles)
20. Chicago Bulls
21. Utah Jazz (from Golden State via Brooklyn)
22. Brooklyn Nets
23. Indiana Pacers
24. New York Knicks
25. Los Angeles Clippers
26. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Memphis via Houston)
27. Denver Nuggets
28. San Antonio Spurs
29. Oklahoma City Thunder
30. Phoenix Suns (from Miami via L.A. and Cleveland)

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Confederations Cup betting: Day 8 matches

The Confederations Cup is moving along nicely and proving to be an exciting tournament. After some underwhelming final group matches (because positions were essentially set), the semifinal encounters should make for some close, entertaining football.

Spain have played its way to being the favorite to win the cup outright at +110. Brazil follows closely at +138.

The two semifinal matchups are slated for this week and the first will be Brazil v Uruguay in an all-South American affair. Thursday, Spain v Italy will decide the other finalist.

Brazil v Uruguay (-275, +400, +650)

Site: Belo Horizonte

Brazil was the pre-tourney favorite and they have played up to that hype thus far. They have dazzled the home fans with a mix of stunning goals and some tidy defending. The Canarinha have given up two goals which is second only to Spain's one conceded goal. Neymar has solidified his place on the global stage playing some great, often breathtaking football. 40 percent of Brazil's attack has gone down Neymar's flank and it has paid dividends. Neymar has tallied three goals, one assist and has passed the ball at a clip of 85.5 percent. Uruguay is coming off an 8-0 drubbing of the lowly Tahitians and finished second in Group B behind the Spanish. Abel Hernández netted four goals in the game versus Tahiti and deserves a spot in the Uruguay eleven, but Diego Forlán will probably get the nod alongside Edinson Cavani and Luis Suarez. This will be a heated South American affair that should see some beautiful goals, brilliant passages of play and some of the top players in the world.

This will be a rematch of the legendary 1950 World Cup match which Uruguay won 2-1. Uruguay last tasted victory over Brazil in a World Cup qualifying match in 2001.

* Uruguay is the most aggressive team in the tournament. La Celeste have five yellow cards and one red card thus far.
* Brazil is second in possession in the Confederations Cup. They keep the ball at a rate of 55.8 percent and pass the ball with a success rate of 84.9 percent.

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Chicago Syndicate
Top Plays Wednesday Afternoon
Blue Jays
Twins (Interleague Game of the Month)


LA Syndicate Wednesday
Afternoon Top Plays
Twins
Mariners

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Baseball Crusher
Chicago White Sox -125 over New York Mets
(System Record: 46-4, won last game)
Overall Record: 46-41-1

Soccer Crusher
Brazil + Uruguay UNDER 3
This match is happening in FIFA
(System Record: 416-15, lost last 3 games and a push)
Overall Record: 416-362-53

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Hondo

Chicago White Sox
San Francisco Giants
St. Louis Cardinals

"Hondo went double-draino last night as the Metamucils and Rockies failed their assignments, moving his deficit below the Hondoza Line at 570 nahorodnys.
Tonight, Mr. Aitch will give thanks to Danks if he stops the Mets — 10 units on the Pale Hose. Also, he expects Lincecum to freak out the Dodgers — 10 on the Giants. And, finally, he will engage in some Lynn-sanity in Houston — 10 on the Cards."

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Washington is 8-0 at home when Zimmerman starts (7-0, 1.53).
-- Gallardo is 2-0, 1.29 in his last three starts.

-- Pirates are 7-0 when Gomez starts (2-0, 3.86).
-- Lackey is 3-1, 2.82 in his last seven starts.
-- St Louis won Lynn's last six starts (4-0, 3.65). Bedard is 1-0, 1.35 in his last couple starts.
-- Mendoza is 1-2, 3.00 in his last six starts.

-- Alvarez is 1-0, 2.45 in two starts this season.

Cold pitchers
-- Miley is 1-3, 7.46 in his last six starts.
-- Feldman is 1-2, 5.40 in his last three starts.
-- Phillies lost nine of last ten Hamels starts (0-2, 4.26 last three).
-- Erlin won only MLB start, allowing two runs in 6.2 IP June 1, but two starts ago in AAA, he allowed 11 runs in two IP (6-2, 5.25 in 12 AAA starts).
-- Lincecum is 1-5, 5.93 in his last seven starts. Kershaw is 0-3, 3.60 in his last six starts.

-- Diamond is 1-2, 9.00 in his last three starts. Koehler is 1-2, 7.23 in his last four starts.
-- FHernandez is 1-1, 4.50 in his last three home starts.
-- Oakland lost last five Griffin starts (0-3, 4.02), scoring 10 runs in the five games. Bailey is 1-2, 5.40 in his last five starts.
-- Oswalt allowed four runs in five IP in losing his first '13 start.
-- Marcum is 0-7, 5.68 in nine starts for the Mets. Danks is 1-4, 5.90 in his last five starts.
-- Minor is 0-1, 6.75 in his last two starts, but Atlanta won eight of his last nine starts overall.

-- Hammel is 0-2, 6.23 in his last four starts; Kazmir is 1-2, 5.82 in his.
-- RHernandez is 1-3, 5.76 in his last four starts. Dickey has a 7.56 RA in his last three starts.
-- Pettitte is 1-3, 4.75 in his last five starts. Grimm is 1-2, 9.90 in his last four.
-- Hanson is 1-2, 8.24 in his last four starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Miley 3-15; Zimmerman 1-16
-- Feldman 4-14; Gallardo 3-16
-- Hamels 3-16 (0 of last 6); Erlin 0-1
-- Lincecum 7-15; Kershaw 2-16 (2 of last 2)

-- Diamond 5-13; Koehler 2-8
-- Bailey 2-15; Griffin 1-15
-- Gomez 3-7; FHernandez 3-16
-- Oswalt 0-1; Lackey 4-12
-- Lynn 4-15; Bedard 6-13 (1 of last 5)
-- Marcum 2-9; Danks 2-6
-- Minor 5-15; Mendoza 2-11

-- Dickey 5-16 (0 of last 4); RHernandez 6-14 (3 of last 3)
-- Kazmir 3-12; Hammel 5-15
-- Hanson 4-9; Alvarez 0-2
-- Grimm 5-13; Pettitte 3-12

Totals
-- Six of last eight Arizona games stayed under total.
-- Seven of Cubs' last nine games stayed under total.
-- Over is 13-5-2 in last twenty San Diego games.
-- Five of last six Dodger home games went over the total.

-- Six of last eight Miami games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Boston games all went over the total.
-- Six of last seven White Sox games went over total.
-- Under is 4-1 in last five Atlanta games.
-- 12 of last 18 Houston games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Cincinnati games; over is 7-1-1 in last nine A's games.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Seattle games.

-- Under is 8-3-1 in Cleveland's last dozen games.
-- Under is 11-5-1 in last seventeen Bronx games.
-- Five of last six Detroit games went over the total
-- Nine of last twelve Toronto games stayed under the total.

Hot teams
-- Arizona won four of its last six games.
-- Brewers won six of their last seven home games.
-- San Diego won 11 of its last 15 home games.
-- Dodgers won their last four games, allowing eight runs.

-- Marlins won four of their last five games.
-- White Sox are 10-5 in last 15 home games. Mets are 5-3 in their last eight games overall.
-- Pirates won their last five games, scoring 35 runs.

-- Cleveland won five of its last seven games.
-- Rangers won five of their last six games.
-- Blue Jays won 11 of their last 13 games, but lost last two. Rays won five of their last seven games.

Cold teams
-- Nationals are 5-6 in their last eleven games.
-- Cubs lost five of their last six road games.
-- Phillies lost four of their last six games
-- Giants lost nine of their last twelve games.

-- Minnesota lost five of their last six road games.
-- Boston lost four of its last six games. Rockies lost six of last eight on road.
-- Royals lost five of their last six games; Atlanta lost five of its last eight.
-- St Louis/Astros both lost three of their last four games.
-- Mariners lost six of their last nine games.
-- Oakland lost seven of its last 11 games. Reds lost four of their last five.

-- Orioles four of their last five games.
-- Bronx is 5-8 in its last thirteen games.
-- Angels lost three of their last four games, allowing 29 runs. Detroit made six errors last night; they're 3-4 in last seven games.

Umpires
-- Az-Wsh-- Four of last five Gibson games stayed under total.
-- Chi-Mil-- Last six Schrieber games stayed under the total.
-- Phil-SD-- Five of last six Joyce games stayed under total.
-- SF-LA-- Over is 5-1-2 in last eight Caraapazza games.

-- Min-Mia-- Six of last eight TWelke games stayed under.
-- Cin-A's-- Underdogs won four of last five Timmons games.
-- Pitt-Sea-- Nine of last twelve Miller games stayed under.
-- Col-Bos-- Underdogs won four of last five BWelke games.
-- StL-Hst-- Six of last nine McClelland games went over total.
-- NY-Chi-- Over is 8-2-1 in last eleven Hallion games.
-- Atl-KC-- Five of last six Reynolds games went over total.

-- Tor-TB-- Underdogs won seven of last eight Darling games.
-- Cle-Balt-- Six of last eight TBarrett games stayed under total.
-- LA-Det-- Favorites are 13-1 in last 14 Hernandez games, with his last four games going over the total.
-- Tex-NY-- Underdogs are 5-3 in last eight Carlson games.

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Today's MLB Picks

Texas at NY Yankees

The Yankees look to take advantage of a Texas team that is 1-9 in its last 10 games in New York. New York is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-125). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, JUNE 26 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Arizona at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 15.863; Washington (Zimmermann) 14.901 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Washington (-150); 7 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+130); Over

Game 903-904: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Feldman) 14.510; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 16.142 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 8 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-135); Under

Game 905-906: Philadelphia at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 14.435; San Diego (Erlin) 15.304 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 7 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 907-908: San Francisco at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.517; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 14.663 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-180); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+160); Over

Game 909-910: Toronto at Tampa Bay (12:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Dickey) 16.513; Tampa Bay (Hernandez) 17.577 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Toronto (-120); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+100); Over

Game 911-912: Cleveland at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Kazmir) 16.959; Baltimore (Hammel) 16.066 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Baltimore (-150); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+130); Under

Game 913-914: LA Angels at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Hanson) 15.595; Detroit (Alvarez) 14.636 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 11 Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+130); Over

Game 915-916: Texas at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Grimm) 14.990; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 16.633 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-125); 9 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-125); Under

Game 917-918: Minnesota at Miami (12:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Diamond) 16.498; Miami (Koehler) 14.913 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Minnesota (-115); 8 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-115); Under

Game 919-920: Cincinnati at Oakland (3:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.133; Oakland (Griffin) 15.542 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Oakland (-125); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-125); Over

Game 921-922: Pittsburgh at Seattle (3:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Gomez) 15.715; Seattle (Hernandez) 17.269 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line: Seattle (-160); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-160); Under

Game 923-924: Colorado at Boston (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Oswalt) 15.681; Boston (Dempster) 14.593 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 11 Vegas Line: Boston (-180); 10 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+160); Over

Game 925-926: St. Louis at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lynn) 14.290; Houston (Harrell) 14.801 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+150); Under

Game 927-928: NY Mets at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Marcum) 16.052; White Sox (Danks) 15.121 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 8 Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+115); Over

Game 929-930: Atlanta at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 15.142; Kansas City (Mendoza) 15.922 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 8 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+120); Over

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WNBA Basketball Picks

New York at Chicago

The Sky look to take advantage of a New York team that is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 road games. Chicago is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sky favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-8 1/2). Here are all of today's picks

WEDNESDAY, JUNE 26 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 601-602: New York at Chicago (12:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New York 107.309; Chicago 117.948 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 10 1/2; 142 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 8 1/2; 147 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-8 1/2); Under

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1048-789 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner WED Wash w/ Zimmerman

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Wednesday

Brewers -145

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Red Sox Tuesday.

Wednesday it’s the Mariners. The deficit is 658 sirignanos.

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Joe Wiz

Free Play Wednesday Atlanta/Kansas City Under 8