6-27-13

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CHRIS JORDAN

200* Red Sox run line +115

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Goodfella

2 Dime Detroit ML
2 Dime Texas ML

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Sportswagers 6-27-13

Cleveland @ BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE -1½ +163 over Cleveland


We’ve been strong supporters of Corey Kluber the entire season up to now because, as we suggested, he was an undervalued pitcher. With a 6-4 record and a 1.68 ERA over his past three starts, the value on Kluber is gone and now we’re going to sell high on him. Kluber is having a great year but there are some glaring negatives in his skill set that insist he’s not as good as the numbers say. We'll start with the good: he’s only walked 13 batters in 71 frames and he’s missing plenty of bats with 69 K’s. The strikeout rate isn't just from one start either, as he's struck out 8+ hitters four times this season. The problem is his hit rate is elevated and has been for three years. Kluber is squeezing out of a lot of jams and his pitch count gets up there very quickly. He’s only averaging 5.1 innings per start. And note that only 14% of batted balls are hit softly. So he's allowing a lot of hitters to square up on the ball. Kluber’s 87% strand rate over his past six starts is also unsustainable and it’s only a matter of time before we see this guy blow up for an extended period of time. The Orioles square up as well as any team in baseball and Kluber could be in for a rough one here. Miguel Gonzalez is the underpriced pitcher in this matchup. Gonzalez has quietly saw his skills soar in May and in June. His fastball velocity increased by nearly 1.0 mph from April to May and his swinging strike rate was an upper-tier 10.3%. Gonzalez offers up four quality offerings: a fastball anywhere from 89-94 MPH with an average of 91.2 MPH, a slider that he throws 11½% of the time, a curve 8.2%, a changeup 16.4% and a two seam FB that he throws 18% of the time. He’ll also throw any of them at any time, with or without the count in his favor. Gonzalez has a 0.89 WHIP over his last five starts, and a skill supported 3.75 ERA on the season. Lots of folks think that Miguel Gonzlez is all smoke and mirrors but they’re wrong. Truth is, Corey Kluber is serviceable but he’s the one that has been living a charmed life, not the opposite. The reward spotting 1½-runs is worth the risk.

Our pick: BALTIMORE -1½ +163 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.26)

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Sportswagers

N.Y. Mets @ COLORADO
COLORADO -1½ +131 over N.Y. Mets

The Mets were at Coors earlier this year and were swept in a three-game set by scores of 11-3, 9-8, and 8-4. The Rockies have now defeated the Mets in seven straight games dating back to last year and this one isn’t likely to be any different. Furthermore, this is a make-up game for the Mets, who played a night game in Chicago yesterday and now have to play a 4:00 PM (local time) game here before returning home to host the Nationals starting tomorrow. It would be of no surprise to see the Mets field their “B” lineup here in this one-game trip to Colorado. Jeremy Hefner has strung together a decent year but he’s benefitted greatly from pitching half of his 14 starts at Citi Field. On the road, it’s a completely different tale for Hefner. On the road, Hefner’s ERA is 4.83 with a BAA of .281. He pitched one inning at Coors earlier in the year and we’re certain he hasn’t forgotten it because in that one inning he was taken yard twice. The Rockies' bats will be looking forward to being home, where they have an NL-best .286 BA and .814 OPS. Tyler Chatwood is one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game. In eight starts since taking over John Garland’s rotation spot, Chatwood has had one bad start and seven pure quality starts. That one poor start occurred in his first time out but since then, Chatwood has allowed two runs or fewer in seven straight starts. In four starts at Coors Field, he has not allowed a single HR and that’s due to his elite groundball rate of 60% on the year. Over his last five starts, Chatwood’s GB rate is 63%. Chatwood’s strikeout rate is improving (he struck out 18 batters in a recent 16-inning span) and his last four wins were by scores of 10-5, 5-0, 10-2 and 12-2. When he wins, he wins big and this is the perfect spot to extend that trend in.

Our Pick:
COLORADO -1½ +131 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.62)

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BOB BALFE

MLB
MINNESOTA TWINS -130
(Deduno/Guthrie)
At first glance this looks like a very high line against Guthrie, but he has been awful in his last three starts. Guthrie can't strike anybody out and he is giving up a ton of walks and home runs. The Royals are not hitting the ball right now and everything points to the Twins at home in this game. Minnesota is one of those teams that could make a run in the second half. Take the Twins.

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Ultra Sports free play

4 units Arizona +135 List Corbin vs. Strasburg

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bookiemonsters

pod blue jays under 9.5

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Bookieshunter

3* GOW Rockies

1* Blue Jays

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Harry Bondi

MLB Free Play
BALTIMORE (-125) over Cleveland
7:05 p.m. ET
We remained perfect this week with another underdog winner on the Cubs over Milwaukee. The Steam Team also was perfect last night cashing on the underdog Mets over the White Sox. Tonight lets back The Orioles to bounce back after their closer Jim Johnson blew his first save in 13 opportunities last night. Miguel Gonzalez starts for Baltimore tonight and he has been solid allowing three or fewer runs in seven of his last eight outings. The right handed Mexican has limited opponents to a .232 batting average and allowed only 69 hits over 81 2/3 innings. Let's keep a great week going with Baltimore tonight.

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Brad Wilton

100 DIME
Winner #4 in a Row
My 1st Ever in MLB

KC Royals

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INTPICKS

Today's Official Picks

Thursday, June 27, 2013

All 1 unit

MLB

7:10 PM ET

Toronto @ Boston

Take Boston Run Line (-1.5) +110

8:10 PM ET

Kansas City @ Minnesota

Play UNDER 9

*Parlay Alert: Minnesota ML + UNDER 9 (Pays +244)

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Chicago Syndicate
Top Play Orioles

LA Syndicate Top Plays
Twins
Under Dodgers

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Sports Nostradamus

3* CFL Under 50 Montreal/Winnipeg
1* Montreal -3

MLB
3* Dodgers/Phillies Under 7.5
2* Twins
1* Red Sox/Blue Jays Under 9.5

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Strike Point Sports

Under Indians

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Ocal Sports

(2) O's -133