6-28-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB Totals

Free Plays

D'Backs +155

Phillies/Dodgers OVER 8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

J.R. STEVENS

ALL ARE TOP-RATED (5-STAR OR 5-UNIT)
NOTE: TAMPA BAY ML IS MY PLAY OF THE DAY

MLB

(901) MILWAUKEE +180/RRL -1.5 +270

(905) WASHINGTON +150/RRL -1.5 +240

(907) ARIZONA +150/RRL -1.5 +240

(909) SAN FRANCISCO +130/RRL -1.5 +190

(918) TAMPA BAY +125/RRL -1.5 +255

(920) MINNESOTA +125/RRL -1.5 +255

*Play side and runline/reverse runline equally
"RRL" means "Reverse Runline" or "Alternate Runline

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Todays Best Bets

(5 UNITS) Mets
Betting $775 to win $500

(5 UNITS) Rockies
Betting $675 to win $500

(5 UNITS) Tigers
Betting $690 to win $500

(4 UNITS) Blue Jays
Betting $400 to win $400

(4 UNITS) Braves
Betting $680 to win $400

(4 UNITS) Mariners
Betting $608 to win $400

(3 UNITS) Cardinals
Betting $300 to win $300

[Can'tPickAWinner]

"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee had Np on Thursday.

For Friday "Mr Chalk" likes the Mets -$170/Nationals.

"Mr Chalk" is 2-1 +$52 for the week 47-28 +$727 for the 2013 MLB Season.


Ben lee had a play in tennis earlier today at Wimbledon.

J Melzer Ev/S Stakhovsky for $100.

Ben lee is 1-0 +$100 in tennis.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL leans toward under in Week 1 over past six seasons

The Montreal Alouettes and Winnipeg Blue Bombers went against the Week 1 grain in their CFL season opener Thursday night, playing over the 49.5-point total with a 39-33 Montreal win at Investors Group Field.

CFL teams had produced an 8-16 over/under record in Week 1 of the schedule since 2007 heading into 2013, including a 1-3 over/under count in the opening slate of the 2012 season.

Some point to rust of the offseason or new offensive players and coaches still fine tuning their schemes and timing as the reason for this one-sided result, which has paid off for under bettors at a profitable 66.6 percent rate.

The Toronto Argonauts, the defending Grey Cup champions, have been the best under bet in Week 1 during that span, staying below the number in all six games since 2007. The Calgary Stampeders are the second most profitable under play in Week 1, with a 1-5 over/under count in the opener over the past six seasons.

Both Toronto and Calgary are in action Friday night. The Argos open the schedule with a 54.5-point total hosting the Hamilton TiCats (2-4 O/U in Week 1 since 2007) while the Stampeders welcome the BC Lions (2-4 O/U in Week 1 since 2007) to McMahon Stadium with the number sitting at 51.5 points.

Only one team, the Saskatchewan Roughriders, have leaned toward the over more in Week 1 since 2007 heading into this season. They boast a 4-2 over/under count over their past six season debuts and visit the Edmonton Eskimos (2-4 O/U in Week 1 since 2007) with the total at 49 points Saturday. However, these heated rivals have stayed under the number in 14 of their last 18 head-to-head meetings.

Thursday’s season-opening result bumped Montreal to 4-3 over/under in Week 1 over the past six seasons while Winnipeg moved to 3-4 over/under in that same situation.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover | MLB ML - Friday, Jun 28 2013 7:30PM
ML 907 ARI (+150) Hilton vs 908 ATL double-dime bet

[666les]

thanks & my pleasure, football season can't come soon enough!

Thanks irish this is a good site. Does CFL count as football?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SB Professor MLB Picks

932. Chicago White Sox -122
916. Boston Red Sox -106
920. Minnesota Twins +126

[Can'tPickAWinner]

bookiemonsters

pod indians gm 2 under 9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thanks irish this is a good site. Does CFL count as football?

My pleasure 666,
It should but there's nothing like the NFL.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, June 28, 2013

MLB

Milwaukee (Hellwag) at Pittsburgh (Cole) (-180) 7:05 ET

3% Milwaukee (Hellweg) (+170)

The Pirates are 8-0 (100%) following a scheduled day of rest this season. Pittsburgh is also 6-4 in the season series against Milwaukee reversing one of the greatest long term series trends in MLB history. That 60% win percentage is a microcosm of the Pirates 48-30 record which ties them with St. Louis for the best record in MLB. That success is more than reflected in this price as Pittsburgh returns from a 7-2 road trip following a 5 game West Coast swing in which they clouted 13 home runs and scored 39 runs. Tonight they send their top rookie, Cole, to the mound. In 3 starts, Cole has beaten Lincecum, Greinke and Weaver for a 3-0 start with a 3.44 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 8/1 KBB. With the best bullpen in baseball sporting a 164 bullpen index, this looks like a walk in the park. But this team has clearly overheated forcing a look to the value side with visiting Milwaukee. Hellweg, in place of the injured Figaro, makes his MLB debut following a record of 7-4 with 2.82 ERA in AAA Nashville. Sign us up for this value laden Big Dog.



San Diego (Volquez) at Miami (Nolasco) (-115) 7:10 ET

3% Miami (Nolasco) (-115)

The Padres must travel West to East for their first game on the East Coast on a 1-4 slide following a 33-21 run up. Volquez is not the stopper. For the YTD, Volquez has a 5.67 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and bloated 71/44 KBB. Volquez is off a 6-1 loss in LAD in which he allowed 5 runs including 7 walks in 5 2/3 IP. IN 8 road starts, Volquez has a 6.70 ERA. Now the Padres must face Nolasco who has a 2.87 ERA his last 7 starts and is pitching to get out of Miami before the July 31 trade deadline. Every dog has his day in MLB. Just such is the case with the Marlins whose positive runs of 11-6 and 5-1 are linked to the return of Stanton to their troubled offense.



Arizona (Delgado) at Atlanta (Teheran) (-160) 7:30 ET

3% Atlanta (Teheran) (-160)

It is a nice angle to consider playing Delgado in his return to face the team who traded him in the off season. Yet his performance has shown little to back that premise. In a pair of starts, Delgado has a 3.75 ERA including allowing 4 runs on 6 hits in 5 IP of a 4-2 Cincinnati loss in his last outing. With Arizona on a negative 7-10 slide, I far prefer the home standing Braves with the best home record in baseball at 25-11. Teheran is an emerging pitcher who in his last 9 starts has a 2.42 ERA. YTD numbers are 1.21 WHIP and 71/16 KBB have us eager to back his slants.



Philadelphia (Lannan) at LA Dodgers (Capuano) (-150) 10:10 ET

3% LAD (Capuano (-150)

Since ascending past the .500 mark at 31-30, the Phillies have retreated on a 7-12 slide. Lannan is not the answer. Tonight he makes his 3rd start/DL. In the first 2, Lannan has allowed 8 runs on 14 hits in 10 IP. In a pair of road outings, Lannan has an 8.22 ERA. Capuano also makes his 3rd start/DL but in a far dichotomous way Capuano has twirled 11 scoreless innings since his return. With LAD pushing toward the .500 mark on a 6-0 streak and being invigorated by the infectious enthusiasm of rookie Puig, let’s back the opposing momentum at this value price.



LA Angels (Williams) (-130) at Houston (Norris) 8:10 ET

3% Houston (Norris) (+120)

Houston is 6-1 in this series including 4 consecutive victories against LAA in which their reborn pitching staff has allowed just 8 runs. That may well continue tonight behind Norris who is 3-0 this year against LAA with a 0.43 ERA. The great season from this mound last year continues in 2013 for Norris. In 9 starts from this bump, Norris has a 2.67 ERA. The positive recent run of Houston at 8-5 matches the momentum of LAA who has won 9/14. Williams comes off a busted start in a 6-1 loss to the Pirates in which he allowed 5 runs in 8 hits on 6 IP. With a 4.09 ERA vs. Houston and 1-3 record, he is a Play Against candidate in the role of road favorite for an LAA team whose 16 road wins matches that of Houston at home. Value home dog.



WNBA
Friday, June 28, 2013

Tulsa Shock at Indiana Fever (+1) 7:05 PM EST
3% Indiana Fever (+1)
This battle of injury plagued teams features last year’s defending champ, Indiana, versus a Tulsa team who is a combined 12-56 for the last two seasons. Tiffany Jackson Jones still has not played this year for the Shock, and Liz Cambage has not played the last 7 games with a sprained ankle. In her absence, this quickly improving Tulsa team has gone 7-0 ATS; makes one wonder if and when the six-foot 8-inch Australian will make her return. For the injury plagued defensive champs, they are 0-7 SU ATS following an opening night win at San Antonio. Not only are they missing their two best players, Tamika Catchings and Katie Douglas, but also key contributors from last year’s team such as Erin Phillips, Jessica Davenport, and Jeanette Pohlen; that pretty much leaves the scoring burden to Shavonte Zellous. But these dichotomous results have resulted in a major over-adjustment by the line-maker, affording us great value with a prideful Indiana team who has the better coach in Lin Dunn over Gary Kloppenberg, and a far greater urgency for victory. Fever spoil the homecoming of Sky Dig, who is not making nearly the impact expected of her. A shiny new white Mercedes and big contract have put a target on the rookie’s back.


Washington Mystics at Atlanta Dream (-10-) 7:35 PM EST
3% 5* Washington Mystics (+10-)
Atlanta has won all four games without interior presence Sancho Lyttle, as Angel McCoughtry has led the charge on both ends of the floor. Atlanta forcing a league high 19 TOs per game to go along with a 70/39/29 defense. The Dream is 3-0 ATS HF -8+ points. Now they catch a Washington team in a play and travel scenario, following a fast-paced game versus Phoenix last night. An earlier meeting between these two saw Atlanta win 73-63 as 7-point road chalk. But the Mystics are a far more competitive team under new HC Mike Thibault than the league’s worst team of the last two seasons that went 11-57. Look for PG Ivory Latta to control the offensive flow, and for Washington to slide in under this number against an Atlanta team that has the best record in the league, but should be a bit fat tonight.


LA Sparks at Minnesota Lynx (-6) 8:00 PM EST
3% LA Sparks (+6)
The Lynx still look like the best team in the league despite the 87-59 drubbing they took at the hands of the Sparks June 21st. The home/road dichotomy speaks to this revenge mode as the Lynx have won all four of their home games by 9+ points, in going 3-1 ATS on this floor. Meanwhile, LA is 0-2 SU ATS away with a 10-point loss at SA and a 16-point loss at Phoenix. With a 79-69 home court buffer win between that Lynx victory and tonight’s game, LA enters on a 3-0 SU ATS run with every win by 10 points, allowing just 59 PPG. Lindsey, Maya, and Seimone will be laying in wait, but Nneka, Kristi, and CP still hunger for their own measure of reve

nge from last year’s playoffs. Contrary underdog call on visiting LA.

NY Liberty at Seattle Storm (-4-) 10:00 PM EST

3% NY Liberty (+4-)

First year New York HC Laimbeer has the Liberty playing tough defense, allowing just 73/37/29. But they drop the ball on a nightly basis, literally, as they commit easily a league-worst 19 TOs per game. Such was the case in our loss with the Liberty Wednesday night. After leading the Chi Sky 30-15 at the end of the first quarter, the Liberty were in a nip and tuck battle entering the fourth as 9-point dog. But when the smoke cleared, the Sky had scored the last 8 points of the game to front door the Liberty 87-74. That despite the fact that NY outshot Chicago 44-42, was +2 on the boards against the best rebounding team in the league, but could force only 5 turnovers themselves. But Seattle does not present that same type of problem, as they are among the worst in the league in forcing just 11 TOs per game, are the league’s worst rebounding team at 37.4 per game, and allow a WNBA worst 48.3% from the floor. This is a game in which the Liberty have the matchup advantages. Can’t make a stronger call, however, as the Lib are 0-3 ATS road dog with losses of 12, 19, and 13 points and may be without key cog Plenette Pierson for this contest.

[DaKid]

My pleasure 666,
It should but there's nothing like the NFL.

Truth!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

marc lawrence

det
sd

[Can'tPickAWinner]

fargo--

milw
wash
hamilton--cfl

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Roxxy

Tulsa Shock +1
Minnesota Lynx -6
Seattle Storm -4.5
Washington Mystics +10.5