6-29-13

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PAUL LEINER

100* Cardinals -125

50* Indians -125

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Greg Shaker MLB Total Sat, 06/29/13 - 7:15 PM

dime bet - 960 PIT / 959 MIL - OVER 8
Analysis: My number here is 9 and with -105 vig almost everywhere and my model showing 8 or more at 59.1% of the time and 9 obtained at 55.6% of the time, I am playing OVER for 1%

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Stephen Nover | MLB ML - Saturday, Jun 29 2013 4:05PM
ML 975 STL (-120) Hilton vs 976 OAK triple-dime bet

Analysis:
The Cardinals have won 20 of their last 29 road games. They are 40-20 versus right-handers and have their ace, Adam Wainwright, going.

Wainwright has been phenomenal with a 106-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 2.31 ERA, which shrinks a little more to 2.28 during day games where he's 5-1. Wainwright is fired-up, too, after he was pulled from his last start this past Sunday at home in a loss to Texas.

The A's aren't a huge power team relying more on patience and getting base runners on. Wainwright, though, doesn't walk anybody. He has a 1.01 WHIP. St. Louis is 8-0 the past eight times Wainwright has pitched on the road.

I can't see Oakland's Jarrod Parker matching Wainwright. The Cardinals rank third in batting average and on base percentage. They are fourth in runs.

Parker has come on after a slow start, but did give up three runs - including two homers - in seven innings this past Sunday in a 6-3 loss at Seattle. Parker has a 4.88 home ERA and a 4.55 ERA during the day.

The Cardinals are 17 games above .500. The A's are 13 games above .500. The A's have feasted on bad competition going 32-13 versus opponents that are .500 or below. Oakland is a far more modest 15-21 when facing foes with a winning record.

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Scherzer's 12-0 start earns bettors more than 7 units

Detroit Tigers pitcher Max Scherzer is off to a historic 12-0 start to the season, earning bettors 7.20 units in the process.

Scherzer is the first MLB pitcher to win 12 consecutive starts to begin the season since Roger Clemens in 1986. He picked up win No. 12 with a seven-inning, four-hit, three-run effort in a 6-3 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays Friday. Scherzer and the Tigers were priced as -133 road favorites.

Scherzer has made 16 starts with four no-decisions and Detroit was a moneyline favorite in all of those appearances. He has a 3.10 ERA and 131 strikeouts, helping the Tigers post an 8-8 over/under record in those trips to the mound.

On the season, Detroit is 43-35 atop the American League Central and has burned through -9.12 units heading into Saturday. The Tigers boast a 43-34-1 over/under count.

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Todays Bet Bets

(5 UNITS) Cardinals
Betting $585 to win $500

(5 UNITS) Padres
Betting $545 to win $500

(5 UNITS) Tigers
Betting $695 to win $500

(5 UNITS) Cubs
Betting $545 to win $500

(4 UNITS)SF/Col - UNDER 9.5
Betting $400 to win $400

(3 UNITS) Pirates -1.5
Betting $300 to win $375

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larry ness :

10* nl west gom - rockies ml

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dannyb

yankees

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GREG SHAKER

Saturday Twitter Play #1 is a 1* Premium Selection. #956 Colorado Rockies -105

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SPORTS WAGERS

Chicago -107 over SEATTLE

In five June starts, Jeff Samardzija has posted an ERA of 4.54 and he’s precisely the reason you buy skills and not ERA results. Samardzija skills in June were just as good and even better than they were in April and May but he was hurt by an unfortunately low 67% strand rate. Samardzija has some of the best skills in the game the first and second times he goes through lineups, as his BAA of .136 will attest to. Samardzija has 115 K’s in 106 frames, a strong 48% groundball rate, a 3.39 overall ERA with an xERA of 3.15. This is true value in that we get the vastly superior pitcher laying less than a dime against the weak-hitting Mariners.

Aaron Harang has a 5.29 ERA after 65 IP with an xERA of 4.07. Pitching at Safeco, that xERA is not a ringing endorsement. Harang has blown up in four of 12 starts and many other have been of the mediocre variety. One of his problems has been gopheritis with guys on base. He has an ugly 3.1 HR/9 in that scenario and that should come as no surprise given his ugly 29%/47% groundball/fly-ball rates over his past nine starts. Harang’s margin for error is razor thin. His control has improved but with a .278 BAA, he remains one of the most hittable pitchers in the game and he usually gets worse as the season progresses.


BALTIMORE -1½ +157 over N.Y. Yankees

You think the oddsmakers erred when they made T.J. MacFarlane a slight favorite over C.C. Sabathia yesterday? The public ate up that line and it cost them when the Yanks could not deliver the knockout punch early. New York scored three runs in the first three innings but it probably should’ve been twice that, which has been a constant problem for the Yanks. New York is seeing BB’s right now and the oddsmakers knew it when they posted that enticing number on Sabathia. Since June 1, the Yankees have a .219 BA and .604 OPS, which are both worst in MLB. Now New York will have to face Zach Britton’s nasty stuff. As long as Britton is throwing strikes he’s almost unhittable. Britton’s stuff is sick. When batters make contact, it’s usually weak or on the ground, as his elite 58% groundball rate and 16% line-drive rate will attest to. His problem has been control but when facing a team that is pressing like the Yanks are, batters tend to help pitchers out by swinging at pitches they have no shot of hitting. Britton has a great chance to thrive here.

David Phelps is a mid-rotation, starting pitcher for an average team. His skills are average, he walks too many batters (30 in 75 innings) and he’s been asked to switch roles for years. Phelps has appeared in 16 games, 10 as a starter. In his career, he’s appeared in 49 games, 21 as a starter. He’s been more consistent since the Yanks told him he’d be starting every fifth day but he’s heard that before. Phelps has an xERA of 4.75 over his last five starts and his fly-ball rate is trending the wrong way. In fact, over his last seven starts, Phelps has produced more fly-ball outs than groundball outs in all of them and that includes a start in Tampa in which he produced just six GB outs against 20 fly-outs. That’s a warning sign and he now has to face an Orioles team that leads the majors in HR’s with 109. Some of those fly-balls will likely go straight over the wall today and it should all add up to another O’s victory, only this time by more than a run.


MIAMI +109 over San Diego

Eric Stults is a popular guy these days. He's seen his ownership in fantasy baseball rise to over 65% in the last two weeks and his 2.23 ERA over the past 30 days is a good reason. Of course fantasy baseball is not wagering but many bettors play fantasy baseball. In other words, Stults’ stock is higher than it’s ever been and like we always say, that’s usually the best time to sell. Eric Stults is a 33-year old soft-tossing lefty. His command is very good but that's all control driven. His 67 K’s in 100 IP isn't that exciting and it's actually a step up from his historical skill level. Stults has an xERA of 4.07 and a slightly below average 42% groundball rate. Stults is simply a very average pitcher that has outpitched his xERA so far due to an extremely low 5% HR/F rate. With a 41% fly-ball profile, some balls will be leaving the yard very soon on this guy and as the chalk on the road, he’s just not very appealing. Stults is overvalued.

Meanwhile, Jacob Turner has gone unnoticed but continues to deliver the goods start after start. Turner has started just five games this season but has allowed two runs or fewer in four of them and that includes starts at Philly and Arizona, both extreme hitters’ parks. Turner has an elite 51%/18%/30% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile. Remember, back in 2011, Turner was the Tigers #1 pitching prospect. Turner has the goods to be a dominant strikeout pitcher but he’s focusing on fastball command and improving his change-up. His fastball sits between 90-95 mph, but he uses his 6’5” height well to pitch on a downward plane. The fastball exhibits nasty late life and he gets hitters to pound it into the ground. Turner operates with a smooth delivery, which enhances the look and feel of his secondary offerings. He has excellent polish and pitchability and knows how to sequence his pitches to keep hitters guessing. The Fish have won three of Turner’s five starts and that probably should be four of five after he threw a gem in his last start in San Fran. Turner’s 1.97 ERA this season comes with full skills support and now is the time to buy low on this potential ace because the window of opportunity is going to close quickly.

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SPORTS WAGERS

EDMONTON/Saskatchewan Over 49

The first three games of the CFL season is an indication of just how advanced the offenses are compared to the defenses and we’ll apply that same theory here. All three games went over the number in easy fashion and this one isn’t likely to be any different. The Riders loaded up offensively in the off-season by adding Geroy Simon, Ricky Foley, John Chick and Dwight Anderson, who join this outstanding cast: Weston Dressler, Chris Getzlaf, Rob Bagg, Taj Smith, Greg Carr, Kory Sheets and Jock Sanders. Bagg could be the real sleeper here, as he’s spent most of the last two years on the rack but the reports are he looks quicker, fitter and healthier than ever. Darian Durant had his best season a year ago by completing 64% of his passes and they’ve surrounded him with a bevy of weapons. Saskatchewan also brought in George Cortez as offensive coordinator and he’s put together some of the most creative and best offenses this league has ever seen. Defensively the Riders are supposed to be as good as they were last year, when they ranked second in several defensive categories. That said, every defense in the CFL was expected to be greatly improved but every team has been torched by the opposition’s offense other than the Stamps.

The Eskimos had an off year last season and although they made the playoffs, they bowed out rather quietly and the Eskies subsequently hired Ed Hervey to take over the GM duties from Eric Tillman (the man that traded Ricky Ray). Mike Reily is an unfamiliar name. He hasn’t had much CFL experience but don’t let that fool you, as this kid was backing up and observing Lions all-star QB, Travis Lulay. Reily went 1-1 as a starter, while completing 70 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and one interception in those games. He looked poised and very confident out there and knows he’s the starting QB every week. Edmonton has an explosive RB in Hugh Charles and several very decent options for Reily to throw to. On the defensive side of the ball, Edmonton has made many changes and it could take some time to see exactly what they have, but again, we mention that every defense has been two steps slower than every opposing offense. These are two teams loaded with offensive talent and offense has been the flavor of the week so far and there is no reason to believe this one will be any different.

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Harry Bondi

Mets
Red Sox

free play Rays

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Wayne Root's MLB Underdog Parlay of the Month pays....$5174, Saturday

Millionaires Take Milwaukee +155
Billionaires Take Kansas City +115
No Limit Take Cincinnati +107

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Sports Handicapper King

cardinals
Saskatchewan money line

Freeloader on the tigers.

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Accu-Score MLB

ML-Home Wins 55 to 59.9% 133-77, 63.3% +2270 -

TOR 963 vs BOS 964 -- Over 50% on Boston Red Sox -148
KC 967 vs MIN 968 -- Over 50% on Minnesota Twins -115
CIN 977 vs TEX 978 -- Over 50% on Texas Rangers -118
PHI 961 vs LAD 962 -- Over 50% on Los Angeles Dodgers -108

ML-Home Line is -110 to -129 134-101, 57% +2227 -

NYY 973 vs BAL 974 -- Over 50% on New York Yankees +107
KC 967 vs MIN 968 -- Over 50% on Minnesota Twins -115
CIN 977 vs TEX 978 -- Over 50% on Texas Rangers -118
WAS 951 vs NYM 952 -- Over 50% on Washington Nationals +109

4 STAR TOTALS 164-131, 55.6% +1990 -

NYY 973 vs BAL 974 -- Under 9
CIN 977 vs TEX 978 -- Under 9.5
ARI 953 vs ATL 954 -- Under 7.5
CLE 965 vs CHW 966 -- Under 8.5
MIL 959 vs PIT 960 -- Under 7.5

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RICH SPORTS

MLB

1* 964 Boston UNDER 11 -125

2* 960 Pit -1 -140

3* 971 Det -140