7-2-13

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Todays Best Bets

(5 UNITS) Tigers
Betting $665 to win $500

(5 UNITS) D-Backs
Betting $675 to win $500

(5 UNITS) Red Sox -1.5
Betting $500 to win $550

(4 UNITS) Braves -1.5
Betting $460 to win $400

(4 UNITS) Phi/Pit - UNDER 7.5
Betting $460 to win $400

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Handicapping Kings

JIMMY

MLB

MIAMI/ATLANTA - UNDER 7.5 -115 (7pm)

BALTIMORE -120 CHICAGO (8pm)

LA DODGERS -153 COLORADO (840pm)

WNBA

LA -3 MINNESOTA (1030pm)

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BEN BURNS

**FIRST CFL PLAY OF SEASON** Thursday ANNIHILATOR!
(100% FOOTBALL SIDES!)

Toronto vs. BC Lions 7/4/13
Take the BC Lions -4

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SportsWagers

Today's Free Picks for Jul 02, 2013

Season to Date

122

125

0.00

+33.78

Philadelphia @ PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia +157 over PITTSBURGH

The best record in baseball combined with a nine game winning streak has these Pirates grossly overvalued. Fading the Pirates over the next couple of weeks has tremendous profit potential and here’s why; A.J. Burnett (calf) has a Grade 1 tear in his right calf and can't put weight on the leg. He's wearing a walking boot and hopes 'it's not a six-week thing.' "Hopes" it's not a six-week thing is not very encouraging. The Pirates' rotation now consists of Francisco Liriano, Gerritt Cole, Jeff Locke, James McDonald & Charlie Morton for the time being. Given the first three are outpitching their xERAs by at least half a run (and 1.5 runs for Cole & Locke), Morton is just back from Tommy John surgery and McDonald walks as many as he strikes out, there could be some tough times ahead for the Pirates. Let’s also not forget that they won the last two games against the Brewers by identical 2-1 scores against some weak pitching. The Pirates .241 team batting average is 24th in the league. The Pirates record says they’re the best team in baseball. We say they’re the most overpriced team in baseball and you know these Phillies are going to come in focused and jacked up.
Jonathan Pettibone’s 4.17 ERA and 1.42 WHIP is a direct result of his 6.85 ERA and 1.69 WHIP the first time he goes through lineups. Remove that and he would have outstanding numbers. That first time through the lineup mark is due to an unlucky 40% hit rate more than anything else but his base skills have been quite good in that scenario with a 52% groundball rate and very few walks. The 6’6” 225 pound righty has an ideal, lithe frame that he uses to his advantage. His velocity is good—89-94 mph fastball—but he uses his height and arm slot to throw downhill and keep the ball on the ground. Pettibone has been a consistent performer, thanks in large part to an ability to repeat his mechanics and throw strikes. He has excellent control of his pitches and he moves the ball in and out, up and down. His cutter and slider work well in tandem while his change-up is likely the best off-speed pitch in the Phillies rotation. This kid can pitch and he’s a far better option taking back this big a price than that imposter, Jeff Locke is spotting one. Locke may never be a -170 favorite again. Sell high.

Our Pick
Philadelphia +157 over PITTSBURGH (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.14)






San Francisco @ CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI -1½ +126 over San Francisco

Between 2008-2011, Tim Lincecum was arguably the best pitcher in baseball. He won back-to-back Cy Young Awards in 2008 and 2009, while posting four-consecutive seasons with at least 200 innings pitched and in three of those seasons, he featured an ERA under 2.75. In short, he was dominant. He earned the nickname “The Freak” and became a media darling across the country with his face plastered everywhere. All of the praise and attention was certainly deserved. Only Cliff Lee compiled a better xERA (2.79) than Lincecum’s 2.81 amongst qualified starters in those four seasons and the right-hander also had the fourth-lowest ERA (2.81). That was then. This is now and Lincecum’s strong pedigree and popularity allows us to fade him at decent prices and that’s precisely what we’re going to do because this is truly a pitching mismatch in the Reds favor. Lincecum’s skills continue to erode at an alarming rate. This season, Lincecum has shown the least aggregate movement on his pitches among NL starters and it's not even close. His fastball is losing more velocity every month and it now averages just above 89MPH. Lincecum’s control and command continue to decline with a walk rate that has grown in each of the past four seasons and it’s now ballooned to an unreasonable 41 BB in 95 IP. His command is falling apart. It can be shown by his inability to throw pitches consistently in the strike zone. Perhaps the most disturbing number in Lincecum’s “dead arm” profile is his 28% line-drive rate. Velocity loss, line drive rate and too many walks combined with a complete lack of movement on his pitches says Tim Lincecum is in big trouble. Let someone else grasp at the shadows.
Homer Bailey has put up skills much better than his 4-6 record would indicate. His 69%/13% dominant start/disaster start points to how he has been consistently dominant this season. Bailey has been hurt by a low strand 66% strand percentage and if that rate was normal he’d likely have 10 wins. He's ramped up his strikeout rate by more than a strikeout per game while keeping walks to a minimum. (25/102 – BB/K’s in 102 IP). Bailey has improved his groundball % and avoided the HR problems that caused him trouble in the past. At 27, Bailey is in his prime and logged his first 200-inning season in 2012. He's followed that with a very good first half this season, though one in which his surface numbers don't reflect just how well he's pitched. With a good offense behind him and decent bullpen, Bailey is a good profit target that begins here against a Giants outfit that in the month of June, averaged only 3.3 runs per game, the lowest in MLB.

Our Pick
CINCINNATI -1½ +126 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.52)





Arizona @ N.Y. METS
N.Y. METS +121 over Arizona

We always like to come back on a hot team versus a cold one the day after a long, extra inning affair in which the cold team found a way to lose again. Up 4-3 with a run in 13th inning yesterday, the Diamondbacks pen blew it by giving up two runs in the bottom of the inning for their fourth straight loss and seventh defeat in their past eight games. Over their past four games, Arizona has been outscored 25-11. Over their past 10 road games, the Snakes have one win. Patrick Corbin’s 9-0 record and 2.22 ERA make it hard to recall the spring training hubbub surrounding the Diamondbacks’ fifth starter competition. His 47% ground ball rate and his strikeout rate are pretty much the same as they were in 2012. Corbin's current 3.57 xERA isn’t far off last year's mark either, but fewer struck balls are finding holes (27% H%) and his strand rate of 81% is unsustainable. With virtually the same skills as last season when Corbin posted an ERA 0f 4.54 in 107 innings, some ERA regression is forthcoming. The 23-year-old southpaw is good but he’s not THIS good and now he’ll pitch with his club having caught the losing bug.
Here’s an oddity that doesn’t make sense; New York is 11-4 on the road against lefties but just 4-10 at home. Logic says those numbers will even out over the course of 162 games. Here’s another oddity; Jeremy Hefner is 0-3 at home. Why is that odd you ask? Well, Hefner has been outstanding at home with a 2.93 ERA over seven starts. In fact, Hefner had a fantastic 1.80 ERA in 30 IP during June and his skills were great. In June, Hefner struck out 23 and walked five with a 52% groundball rate. In his last start in Colorado, Hefner was brilliant in six innings, allowing just one earned run on five hits. The Mets have won Hefner’s last three starts. Each of his skills has shown a steady growth (more strikeouts, fewer walks, higher groundball %, lower line-drive %) and now it’s time for this solid starter to get his first illusive home win.


Our Pick
N.Y. METS +121 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.42)





Chicago @ OAKLAND
Chicago +172 over OAKLAND

After burying the Cardinals and Reds in back-to-back series with four wins in five games and scoring five or more in each win, the A’s stock is soaring right now, thus creating this overlay. Indeed the A’s have to be taken seriously but with A.J. Griffin on the mound in a letdown spot after a three-game set against St. Louis, we’ll gladly accept this generous offer. Griffin is coming off a complete game, two-hit gem against Cincinnati but a repeat of that is highly unlikely. Griffin has just nine pure quality starts in 16 tries this season, meaning almost half of his games are a struggle. Griffin is a fly-ball pitcher (33%/49% - GB/FB) which is always a risk because of the home run propensity that comes from having a fly-ball bias profile He’s already allowed 15 jacks this year in 102 frames and that includes three in one game to the Astros. Griffin does have an outstanding curveball and that is the pitch that keeps him at this level. If that curveball isn’t sharp, Griffin has no shot of success and as a -190 favorite, that’s a risk that can’t be recommended.
The Cubs continue to offer up outstanding value, as they did in Seattle when they took two of three and would’ve swept had it not been for a blown save in the opener. The Cubbies have now won six of their past nine games. They scored 16 runs at Petco in the three-game set and have scored five of more in five of their past seven. Scott Feldman comes in with an xERA of 3.38 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over his last five starts. Feldman’s actual ERA of 3.46 comes with full skills support. He has an outstanding 51%/16% groundball/line-drive rate, a decent strikeout rate of 67 batters in 91 frames and he’s only walked six batters over his past 30 innings. A good spot for the Cubbies and the good form they are in make them a very appealing big dog here in a game they certainly have a chance in.

Our Pick
Chicago +172 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.44)

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Kyle Hunter

4* Oakland A's -1½ +114

3* Washington Nationals -1½ -120

3* Baltimore Orioles -119

3* Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -104

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Sports Handicapper King

Braves RL
Tigers ML

Freeloader on As RL

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Stephen Nover | MLB ML - Tuesday, Jul 2 2013 8:10PM
ML 923 BAL (-120) Hilton vs 924 CWS triple-dime bet

Stephen Nover | MLB ML - Tuesday, Jul 2 2013 10:05PM
ML 929 STL (+110) BetOnline vs 930 ANA double-dime bet

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SB Professor MLB Picks

913. Toronto Blue Jays +129
918. Kansas City Royals -101
920. Minnesota Twins -114

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Chris Jordan

Winning Day #3 in a Row
800♦ Run Line Punisher
Braves RL

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Joe Gavazzi

St. Louis (Lynn) at LA Angels (Weaver) (-120) 10:05 ET
5* St. Louis (Lynn) (+110)

This line clearly the function of the reputation of Weaver and the potential of the Angels, which was met with a 6-0 sweep of Detroit and Houston in the last week. At the same time, St. Louis has at last hit the downer winning just 2/8 recent games to fall 2 games behind Pittsburgh in both the Division and for the best record in MLB. But in the position of Avis, you can be sure the Cards will try harder and the fact they are 24-7/loss is most reassuring. St. Louis has 10 more wins than LAA for the season and its MLB best road record of 27-16 compared to the sub .500 home mark of the Halos. Weaver’s last 5 starts following time spent on the DL have resulted in the 0-3 mark and 4.40 ERA in June. ST. Louis is 12-4 in starts by Lynn where he has posted a record of 10-2 with 3.52 ERA. Make St. Louis your dog of the day.

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Harry Bondi

MLB Free Play
ARIZONA (-130) over NY Mets
7:10 p.m. ET

We cashed again with the Free Play yesterday, running the record to 7-1 the last 8 days and we also had winning week on the Baseball "Steam Team" phone service, going 8-3, +1,480!.

Tonight's free game winner is a very basic, but profitable handicap. Arizona is an incredible 15-1 this season when Patrick Corbin starts on the hill and while the right-hander has failed to earn a victory in his last three starts, he has posted an ERA of 1.96. Meanwhile, the Mets are just 1-6 at home this year with Jeremy Hefner on the hill and the team is 1-8 this season when priced as a home dog of between +125 and +150. Lay the small price with Arizona.

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Scott Spreitzer MLB Money Line Tue, 07/02/13 - 7:10 PM

dime bet - 908 CIN (-166) vs 907 SFG
Analysis: I'm laying the price with the Reds for the second straight night. After last night's rain-shortened win, the Reds are 27-14 at home on the season, while the Giants fell to 15-28 on the road. Sending Tim Lincecum to the mound is not the best way to turn things around. Lincecum has been tagged for a 7.41 ERA & 1.59 WHIP in three career starts against Cincy. His road numbers are terrible in 2013 and there's talk of a move to the pen if the Giants can pick up a starting pitcher before long. The Giants have won just 5 of their last 23 as a road underdog and they're 0-5 when Linceum faces a team with a winning record. The Reds are on a tremendous 40-14 run when Bailey faces a winning team (45-14 combined spots). And the right-hander has been outstanding in several key categories, including a 1.15 WHIP in 16 starts this season and a 1.10 WHIP at Great American. He'll face a SFO team that's scored a grand total of just 24 runs in their last 11 games and managed just 2 hits last night (1 was by the pitcher). Meanwhile, the Reds knocked SP Mike Kickham from the game after just 2 2/3 IP last night and I expect a short outing for "Skinny Timmy" in this one. I'm laying the price with the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday night. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

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DHayes

1* Under 7.5 - Mia/Atl -115

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Bob Balfe

MLB
LA ANGELS -130
(Weaver/Lynn)

It was just a matter of time before the Angels kicked it into gear. They have been the hottest team in baseball the last week and Weaver is one heck of a pitcher. This is a series that can really propel them to the top if they can win against what I think is the best team in the NL. The Cardinals are in a skid and you must take advantage when you play teams that are not at 100 percent. Look for the Angels to get it done with pitching tonight. This will be a good one. Take the Angels.

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DannyB

Arizona -130