7-3-13

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Fox Super Situations™ - FoxSheet

MLB MILWAUKEE at WASHINGTON

Play Against - Home teams (WASHINGTON) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs
150-104 since 1997. ( 59.1% 59.1 units )
2-4 this year. ( 33.3% -2.5 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB BALTIMORE at CHI WHITE SOX

BALTIMORE is 130-91 (+49.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.6) , OPPONENT (4.3)

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CHASE DIAMOND

8* KILLER CLUB

Tampa Bay vs. Houston
Money Line: -140 Tampa Bay

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Harry Bondi

MLB Free Play
TAMPA BAY (-140) over Houston
8:10 p.m. ET

We are now 7-2 the last 9 days on the Free Picks and we also went 2-0 last night for the Baseball "Steam Team" phone service, running our record to 10-4, +1,980! the last 9 days.

We have hit 63% of our free picks since mid-May and many of those selections have been baseball underdogs. Today, however, we're going to lay some wood on the road. We'll gladly risk some bankroll to go against Astros starter Bud Norris, who has a career 6.30 ERA against the Rays. What's more, Houston has won just six of Norris' last 26 starts against winning teams. The Rays are one of the best road teams in all of baseball and Houston is a dismal 10-22 at home against right-handed starters. The price is right. Take the Rays on the road.

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RickJ's Handicapping Picks Wedn MLB Play
1/2 Unit
971 C Sabathia
972 - MIN - P Walters +141

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Underground Sports Connection

Today my Wednesday Premium Play as the comp selection.

Take the NY Yankees over Minnesota

We found 3 key points that makes the Yankees a nice play today.

Yankees vs. A.L Central Division.
CC Sabathia is getting the start.
Hump Day (Wednesday).

Yankees have now won 16 of their last 20 meetings in Minnesota.
Yankees are 12-1 their last 13 vs. A.L Central opponents.
Yankees are 135-66 their last 201 Wednesday games.
Yankees are 13-3 in Sabathia’s last 16 Wednesday starts.
Yankees are 43-17 in Sabathia’s last 60 starts as a road favorite.

Twins are 8-17 last their last 25 Wednesday games.
Twins are 27-65 in their last 92 games vs. A.L East opponents.
Twins are 15-40 their last 55 home games vs. a winning team.
Twins are 0-5 in Walters’ last 5 starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150.

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Jimmy Boyd

5* (MLB) Colorado Rockies ML -110

3* (MLB) San Francisco Giants ML +165
3* (MLB) Texas Rangers ML -131

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GOODFELLA

3 Dime GOM Texas ML

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Power Play Wins

Play of the Day

Rangers

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SportsWagers
Today's Free Picks for Jun 03, 2013

Season to Date

124

126

0.00

+36.72

(2-1 Yesterday)





Cleveland @ KANSAS CITY
Cleveland +102 over KANSAS CITY

The Indians are heating up again with five wins in a row while scoring 42 runs over that span. That’s likely bad news for Jeremy Guthrie. After spending time in Colorado and Baltimore, Guthrie seems to be enjoying the friendly confines of Kauffman Stadium. After some struggles in launching pads last year, he’s settled in as a regular part of the Royals’ rotation. His success since coming over to the Royals doesn’t mean he’s playable, it means he’s overvalued. With a low hit% and high strand% you can expect some ERA regression over the rest of the year. Guthrie has never been a big strikeout guy and this season his strikeout rate is almost laughable with just 49 in 101 innings. Combined with more walks (36) his command has dropped to an unacceptable level. Guthrie’s groundball rate is also on the decline with a rate of just 37% over his last eight games, down from 43% in his first eight. Guthrie has an xERA of 6.31 and if there ever was a sure thing for ERA regression, Guthrie is it. He may not last four innings here.
Scott Kazmir’s 4.83 ERA and 1.42 WHIP are not going to jump off the page but his base skills have been extremely good. Kazmir has 66 K’s in 69 innings to go along with a 43% groundball rate. His line-drive rate is also outstanding at 14% over his last five games. Kazmir is coming off back-to-back one-run, seven inning gems against Minnesota and Baltimore and he’ll now face a Royals team that has just seven wins in 21 decisions against southpaws. The take back is small but the overlay is huge because the Indians should be in the -140 range. Wrong side favored.


Our Pick
Cleveland +102 (Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.08)

****





Philadelphia @ PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia +150 over PITTSBURGH

At the time of this writing the line for this game had not posted yet but it looks like it’ll be John Lannan going for the Phillies against Jeanmar Gomez of the Pirates. We’ll figure on Gomez or Jeff Locke and the price to be somewhere in this range. We mentioned yesterday how the Pirates might be a good fade over the next couple of weeks because their best record in baseball makes them the most overvalued team in baseball. The Pirates rotation is turning into a mess with A.J. Burnett out and every other starter out-pitching their ERA by a significant margin. The Pirates have been able to compensate by scoring some runs by that’s unlikely to continue also. Over their past 20 games, Pirates' batters have struck out 180 times, which is the most in MLB over that stretch. The Phillies came in here last night and took the opener and broke Pittsburgh’s nine-game winning streak. What often follows a long winning streak after a loss is another loss and there’s little in Gomez’s skill set that suggests otherwise. Gomez enjoyed his best outing of the season last time out as he returned from the DL (forearm) to pitch five scoreless innings against Seattle. A repeat is unlikely here considering Gomez's poor command, low strikeout rate and 4.59 xERA. Gomez has pitched more than five innings just once in eight starts with a maximum pitch count of only 81, so chances of a win or quality start aren't very high. Gomez’s minor-league numbers hide his ugly, beneath the hood, major league stats history. xERA, command, and dominant start/disaster start splits are all telling you to stay away.
John Lannan is risky too. He’s never been consistent enough to last in any starting rotation but when he’s on his game, he can be very tough. Lannan has always had an elite groundball rate and this year is no different with a rate of 52%. Besides, Lannan isn’t the one spotting a significant tag here. We missed an opportunity last night when we pulled out of the first game of this series after a pitching change was made. That substitution did not change the fact that the Pirates were overvalued, just like they are again today. So whether it’s Jeff Jocke or Jeanmar Gomez today, the play is the Phillies and we’ll update it as soon as the line comes out.


Our Pick
Philadelphia +150 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.00)

****





Seattle @ TEXAS
Seattle +115 over TEXAS

Felix Hernandez needs no introductions. Hernandez continues to be a sure-fire ace. He has posted five consecutive sub-3.50 ERA seasons and a sub-1.15 WHIP in three of the last four seasons. His skills also remain elite and any time a tag is offered on King Felix, one must, at the very least, give the Mariners a close look because they always have a great chance of winning when this guy takes the hill. Hernandez faces a Rangers lineup that is no longer an offensive force. Over their past 20 games, the Rangers are hitting a measly .244 and their 69 runs scored over that span is the fifth worst in MLB.
The Rangers are in this price range because their ace, Derek Holland gets this start. Holland has a 3.14 ERA in 16 starts and he’s also coming off a two-hit, complete game gem in New York against the Yankees. However, there are several cautionary flags pointing in Holland’s direction. In July of last year, Holland suffered from shoulder fatigue and as a result his fastball dipped from 94.1 to 90 MPH. His skills tanked along with his velocity and we could see him suffer a similar fate this year. Additionally, Holland has been awful at home over his last four starts, surrendering 35 hits over 22 innings but getting extremely fortunate with an 84% strand rate which led to just 14 runs against. Holland is getting smacked around at home and he could also suffer a letdown here after that gem in New York, a place he wanted to thrive in because of an extremely poor history there. He had something to prove in New York. The Mariners came in here last night and won 9-2 with Joe Saunders pitching. Nuff said.

Our Pick
Seattle +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)

****






Chicago @ OAKLAND
Chicago +174 over OAKLAND

Another blown save last night prevented the Cubs from winning their seventh game in the past 10. They also blew a save on Friday in Seattle. Conceivably, the Cubbies could be on a serious run had it not been for those two blown saves. Chicago scored another seven runs last night and has now scored five runs or more in six of their last eight games. The Cubs’ offense combined with this price tag make them very playable here with Matt Garza on the hill. Garza now looks to be hitting his stride after an early string of shaky starts after returning from the DL in late May. Garza has given up just two earned runs in his last three outings along with a 23/5 K/BB in 22 innings compared to a 6.26 ERA in his first five starts.
Bartolo Colon continues to defy logic. Here’s a guy that’s 40-years old, is 40 pounds overweight, has a below average strikeout rate, has a fly-ball bias profile and yet he’s 11-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 5-0 over his last five starts with an ERA of 1.75. Colon, at the age of 40, is posting better surface numbers than guys like Steve Carlton, Ron Guidry, Roy Halliday, John Smoltz and Sandy Koufax were posting in their prime. He’s also posting better surface stats than current aces like Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander. We’re never going to get the money back we’ve lost fading Colon this year so this has nothing to do with chasing it. The fact is, Colon is average at best, he’s grossly overvalued and if he beats us again, so be it. Value is value and that absolutely applies here.

Our Pick
Chicago +174 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.48)

****





Los Angeles @ COLORADO
Los Angeles -1½ +155 over COLORADO

The Rockies have played five consecutive games at home. The most runs they’ve scored over that span were four and that occurred against Barry Zito’s 11.25 road ERA. Take out that lame offensive performance and the Rocks have scored two or fewer in each game. Overall, Colorado has scored four runs or less in seven straight. Last night they were buried 8-0 in the opener of this series and things don’t figure to get much better here with Tyler Chatwood going. Chatwood presents plenty of risk at Coors Field against the Dodgers despite being 4-1 with a 2.13 ERA on the season. Chatwood rode an 82% strand rate and 0% hr/f in June to a 2.14 ERA last month but his 4.66 xERA and 1.30 WHIP are skeptical that the good results will continue. Also going against Chatwood are poor results in both 2011 and 2012. Chatwood's nine walks and 11 K’s over his past four starts highlights the risk even more here when the regression comes calling. Against the red-hot Dodgers, that inevitable regression likely begins.
Zack Greinke has been a fraction of his former self. He used to be counted on for a pure quality start nearly every time out but since some health issues that has not been the case. That said, he can still deliver the goods and appears to be coming around. Over his last five starts, Greinke is 3-1 with an ERA of 3.18 and an xERA of 3.46. Over that span, he’s struck out 28 and walked nine in 34 frames and his groundball rate has increased from 39% to 45%. The Dodgers have won nine of 10 and over their past 20 games, L.A is in the top five in several offensive categories. The Dodgers can’t wait to get back to the park here while the Rockies are swinging at and missing everything these days. A savvy skilled vet like Greinke should have another strong outing here against a collective group of hitters that are pressing.

Our Pick
Los Angeles -1½ +155 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.10)

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Kevin
MLBPredictions

2 UNIT = Chicago Cubs @ Oakland Athletics - UNDER 7.5 RUNS (-116)
Listed Pitchers: Garza vs Colon
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.72 units)

Tonight I don't expect to see anything like the 8-7 final score we saw between these two teams last night as two hot starting pitchers will take the mound. Matt Garza will be on the rubber for Chicago and he is 3-1 on the year over 8 starts with a 3.83 ERA, .230 OBA and 1.16 WHIP. Over his last three starts he has pitched 22 innings giving up just 2 earned runs while striking out 23 and walking just 5. Oakland will send who has quietly been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball to the mound in Bartolo Colon. Colon is 11-2 on the year with a 2.79 ERA, .257 OBA and 1.08 WHIP. He hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs against in any of his past 9 starts, and he has an 8 game winning streak during which he's posted a 1.37 ERA. Over his last three starts he has a 2.35 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, which includes allowing just 1 earned run over 8 innings of work against the Cardinals his last time out. His numbers are better at home where he is 5-0 with a 2.45 ERA, .235 OBA and 0.96 WHIP. Tonight we've got two very solid starting pitchers taking the mound in a pitchers friendly ball park and I think we'll see a low scoring game tonight. Take the UNDER.

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Philadelphia at Pittsburgh (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Pittsburgh -150 (moneyline)

The Pirates are likely heading for a playoffs spot, and they have done so by dominating at home where they are now 28-14 on the season, despite the loss last night. The good news is that they have been even more lethal following a same home stand loss at home, where they are a robust 9-2 on the season, and neither of those loses came at the hands of a losing team. You know the Phillies' situation has changed when they try to fortify their rotation with John Lannan who has had little success vs. Pittsburgh in his career. Lannan owns a 1-4 mark with a 4.53 ERA when battling the Pirates in his career. At 7-1Jeff Locke is backed by a powerful 2.06 ERA, and has been great thus far on the season, owning six shutout innings vs. the Phillies this season. The Pirates have pounded losing teams to the tune of 22-5 in their last 27 against them. Play on Pittsburgh.

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Stephen Nover | MLB Total - Wednesday, Jul 3 2013 6:05PM
951 MIL / 952 WAS UNDER 8 Hilton double-dime bet

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bryan leonard

956 ATL -1.5 (+110) Justbet vs 955 Mia
Analysis:
ATLANTA v MIAMI

The Atlanta Braves send Mike Minor to the mound against Ricky Nolasco and the atrocious Miami Marlins. Minor is having a terrific season so far. He's 8-3 with a 2.95, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 4.75 K/BB ratio. Minor has a higher chase rate than last season and is inducing more weak contact. He's pitching really well and will get a Marlins team that has lost eight straight to the Braves. The Braves have turned it back on offensively, so Minor should get good run support.

Ricky Nolasco gets the ball with a lot on his mind. Nolasco has struggled a lot recently, due in large part to his name constantly popping up in trade discussions. In Nolasco's career against the Braves, he's just 5-10 with a 5.34 ERA over 22 starts. In his last five starts against the Braves, he's 0-4 with a 7.07 ERA. With the trade talks hanging over his head, an offense that is starting to find a groove, and what looks to be very little run support, we're comfortable playing the -1.5 in this spot as we don't project this game to be close.

PLAY: ATLANTA -1.5

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Ben Burns' American League TOTAL OF THE YEAR!

under 8.5 detroit at toronto

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Kyle Hunter

MLB	Jul 03 '13 7:05p	Detroit Tigers vs Toronto Blue Jays Take: Detroit Tigers -110		in 9h
*3 Star MLB Moneyline Cash* Max Scherzer is 12-0 so far this year. He has actually pitched better than Justin Verlander. The Tigers haven't been playing great of late, but they are still one of the World Series favorites for a reason. This is an extremely talented team that could string together a bunch of wins at any time. Josh Johnson will start for the Blue Jays. Johnson isn't the same pitcher he used to be, and he has struggled against good teams so far this year. While the Blue Jays have played well of late, they still don't have as deep as a lineup as the Detroit Tigers. Detroit has the clear pitching advantage here. Take Detroit.

MLB	Jul 03 '13 8:05p	Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Take: Total 8 un-109		in 10h
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle Total* Felix Hernandez is clearly one of baseball's best pitchers, and Derek Holland is quickly becoming an elite pitcher. Hernandez tends to pitch his best against high quality competition. The Mariners scored 9 runs last night, but they have struggled all year against left-handed pitching. Look for the Rangers to bounce back behind a great effort from Holland. The under is 5-0-1 in Hernandez's last 6 Wednesday starts. The under is 3-0-1 in Hernadez's last 4 as an underdog. The under is 7-0 in Holland's last 7 starts against a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the Rangers last 4 as a favorite. The under is 4-0 in Holland's last 4 starts as a favorite. Take the under.

MLB	Jul 03 '13 8:10p	Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies Take: Los Angeles Dodgers -114		in 10h
*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Los Angeles Dodgers are a totally different team of late. Stanley Ramirez is healthy, and Matt Kemp is getting healthy. Yasiel Puig has been baseball's best player over the last few weeks. Also, Adrian Gonzalez is hitting the ball extremely well right now. The Dodgers fortunes have turned quickly in the last few weeks. On the other side, the Rockies are headed south. With Dexter Fowler and Troy Tulowitzki both of the disabled list. This team just doesn't have the offense to keep up at Coors Field. Zack Greinke has actually pitched well at Coors Field in the past. The Dodgers are 9-1 in their last 10 games. They are 5-1 in Greinke's last 6 as a favorite. The Rockies are 0-7 in their last 7 games after allowing 5 runs or more in the previous game. Take the Dodgers.

MLB	Jul 03 '13 8:10p	Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals Take: Kansas City Royals -115		in 10h
*3 Star MLB Bookie Smasher* The Kansas City Royals wasted a lot of chances in last night's game, and they lost a close one to the Indians. Kansas City knows that if they are going to make a run in the season, it needs to be the Indians in this series. Jeremy Guthrie is an underrated pitcher for the Royals. The Royals are 12-2 in Guthrie's last 14 home starts. Kansas City hits the ball better against left-handed pitching, and Scott Kazmir is dealing with a minor back injury. Look for the Royals to put up several runs in this one. I like the value on the home team. Take Kansas City.

MLB	Jul 03 '13 10:05p	Chicago Cubs vs Oakland A's Take: Total 7½ un-123		in 12h
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Matt Garza and Bartolo Colon have both been pitching brilliantly of late. Garza has a 0.61 ERA in his last 3 starts. Colon has an ERA well under 3 so far this year. Neither of these offenses are particularly strong. Recent overs by both of these teams have bumped the total up here which gives us more value on the under. Both of these pitchers could pitch deep into the game and save up the bullpen. I have this one pegged at 6.5 runs, so I'll gladly take the under when given an extra run. Take the under.