7-6-13

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UFC 162 betting: Silva vs. Weidman statistical breakdown
By MMAODDSBREAKER

Chris Weidman could be the most dangerous opponent Anderson Silva has faced during his epic, record-breaking title run.

Weidman has been called a younger Chael Sonnen, perfectly suited to defeat the leading candidate for the UFC's "Greatest of All Time". Oddsmakers have Silva as a -260 versus Weidman (+220) at Saturday’s UFC 162, but what do the numbers say?

Tale of the tape:

The fighters are equally sized, but Weidman will have a significant age advantage, which is why many are picking an upset. But Silva’s ability to fight in an orthodox or southpaw stance has caused problems for better strikers than Weidman. While the basic age question certainly makes the underdog interesting, Silva has trumped youth for a long time.

Standup:

Silva is pound-for-pound, punch-for-punch the most dangerous striker in UFC history. Lately, he prefers to evade and counterstrike, resulting in ridiculously high (record-breaking) accuracy and obvious knockdown power. He holds all the important striking records and his highlight reel finishes include a who’s who of top contenders.

Weidman’s stats are mixed. He has an accurate jab but below-accurate power hand. He tends to push the pace a little on his opponents and works at a higher-than-average rate of output. But against a fighter like Silva, these attributes could work against Weidman. There’s no doubt that the longer this stays standing, the more likely it is that one of Silva’s laser-like punches will find Weidman’s chin.

Ground:

Here’s where it gets tricky. The only times Silva was put in danger was when Sonnen put him on his back and worked ground-and-pound. This cost Silva some of the only rounds in his UFC career and Sonnen was able to do it consistently. Weidman’s grappling stats are actually superior to Sonnen’s in takedowns and ground control. Weidman has seen the blueprint for defeating Silva and he comes in with exactly the right skill set to pull it off.

Silva fought injured in his first bout against Sonnen. The second time around, his takedown defense was better and he made shorter work finishing his opponent. His historical takedown defense of 81 percent is way above average and that’s defending against top-ranked contenders in nearly every fight. Don’t underestimate Silva’s ability to defend takedowns.

Once on the ground, Weidman can work some ground-and-pound, but he also has a submission offense that Sonnen lacked. Silva is an experienced BJJ black belt and has been doing this a lot longer than Weidman. Finishing Silva on the ground won’t be easy. Just ask Dan Henderson.

Prediction:

Weidman is a threat to win some rounds but Silva inevitably gets a few standup exchanges. Weidman’s sub-par striking will be a more glaring mismatch than Silva’s grappling defense.

Statistically speaking, there’s no striker more dangerous than Silva. It may take a couple rounds to develop, but eventually Silva will get the opportunity to counterstrike while Weidman is pressing forward and Silva excels at finding his target while they pursue.

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UFC 162 betting: Weidman can't stand with Anderson Silva
By MMAODDSBREAKER

UFC 162: Anderson Silva (-245) vs. Chris Weidman (+205)

Anderson Silva (33-4) is arguably the greatest pound-for-pound fighter in mixed martial arts history and easily the best fighter the UFC has ever seen. He's out to add to that legacy versus up-and-coming contender Chris Weidman at UFC 162 in Las Vegas Saturday night.

The 38-year-old Brazilian has won 17 straight fights, including a record 16 straight in the UFC. Ever since winning the UFC middleweight championship back in 2006, he’s defended his strap 10 times – another record. Silva’s picked up three wins in three superfights at 205 pounds, a big reason why many consider him to be the pound-for-pound great.

He’s the most devastating striker we’ve ever seen in the Octagon and he’s won a record six “Knockout of the Night” awards for his finishes of Chael Sonnen, Vitor Belfort, Forrest Griffin, Nate Marquardt and Rich Franklin (twice). As you can see by that list, Silva has a huge edge in experience on Weidman and, of course, he’ll have the striking advantage Saturday night.

Weidman, however, has the wrestling advantage and if he can exploit Silva’s takedown defense (which is underrated) and work his heavy ground game, it’s possible Silva could lose the title.

Weidman (9-0) is the top contender in the UFC middleweight division and earned his title shot with wins over top dogs Mark Munoz and Demian Maia. The 29 year old is 5-0 in his young UFC career and he’s shown exceptional wrestling and submission prowess. It’s the reason why many believe he has what it takes to dethrone Silva.

He’s obviously not as experienced as his opponent and he hasn’t fought in an entire year (last bout was July 2012), which is always a red flag. I don’t doubt that Weidman will have some early success with his wrestling and heavy top game, but eventually Silva is going to be able to get his chances in the standup. And at that point, it’s a question of whether Weidman’s chin can hold up.

Weidman will definitely make things interesting with his physical tools that will give Silva problems and I believe he can implement them to great success early on. He’ll control the early goings with his takedowns and ground game.

However, unless he gets a finish in the first two rounds, Weidman will tire out and Silva’s experience in the championship rounds will help him. He will find a way to stuff Weidman’s takedowns in the third round and keep the fight standing. From there, MMA bettors should watch for another highlight-reel fashion, perhaps with a never-before-seen kick.

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NASCAR betting: Coke Zero 400 preview

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads back to Daytona International Speedway this week for the Coke Zero 400.

A driver has taken the checkered flag at both races (Daytona 500 and Coke Zero 400) in the same season just four times. Jimmie Johnson won the Daytona 500 earlier this year.

Here’s our betting preview:

Favorite: Matt Kenseth (10-1)

Kenseth is a two-time winner at DIS, but he’s never won the summer race. He also has six top-fives and 13 top-10s in 27 career starts at Daytona.

Live dog: Jamie McMurray (27-1)

McMurray also has two Daytona victories (2010 spring race and this race in 2007). He’s coming off a runner-up finish last week and always races well at this track.

Long shot: Kurt Busch (39-2)

Busch has two straight top-10s and four in his last six Cup races. He finished sixth at Kentucky and has 10 top-fives and 12 top-10s in 25 career starts at Daytona.

Key stat: Seven different drivers have prevailed in the last seven events at Daytona International Speedway.

Notable quotable:

"Hopefully, we can carry the momentum of a strong run and a second-place finish at Kentucky to Daytona. Daytona is usually a race that is about being lucky and staying out of trouble to be in contention at the end. Our team has been strong here in the past, and I expect we will be the same this weekend. But we will need to have some luck fall our way to bring home good finish." Jamie McMurray on racing Daytona

Odds to win the Coke Zero 400 courtesy of 5Dimes:

Matt Kenseth 10-1
Kevin Harvick 13-1
Jimmie Johnson 13-'
Tony Stewart 13-1
Kyle Busch 13-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 13-1
Jeff Gordon 16-1
Kasey Kahne 16-1
Clint Bowyer 16-1
Brad Keselowski 39-2
Carl Edwards 39-2
Kurt Busch 39-2
Denny Hamlin 22-1
Martin Truex Jr. 22-1
Greg Biffle 22-1
Jeff Burton 27-1
Joey Logano 27-1
Jamie McMurray 27-1
Ryan Newman 33-1
Juan Montoya 33-1
Michael Waltrip 33-1
Marcos Ambrose 45-1
Paul Menard 45-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 45-1

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Most valuable MLB stats for baseball bettors
By JASON LOGAN

A few years back we asked a group of professional bettors which MLB stats they lean on the most when handicapping the day-to-day baseball schedule.

Here are the five prime numbers they singled out, why they’re important to baseball bettors and which clubs excel or just plain suck when it comes to these stats.

Strikeout-to-walk ratio

Walks can quickly turn into runs when a pitcher is struggling with his command. And runs can be bad, depending on which side of the scoreboard they end up on.

The Detroit Tigers (3.43 K/BB) and St. Louis Cardinals (3.20 K/BB) have the best team strikeout-to-walk ratios in the majors, while the Houston Astros (1.91 K/BB) and San Diego Padres (2.09 K/BB) bring up the rear.

As far as individual pitchers, Cardinals RHP Adam Wainwright tops the bigs with a 9.00 K/BB and has earned +2.22 units. Seattle’s Hisashi Iwakuma (5.72 K/BB, +4.55 units) and Philadelphia’s Cliff Lee (5.48 K/BB, +1.32 units) are also among the leaders in Ks-to-walks ratio.

BA versus left-handed pitchers

Oddsmakers will usually tag an extra couple cents on the moneyline when a lefty takes the mound. Finding value on the other side of those odds can pay off.

The Tampa Bay Rays (.291) and San Francisco Giants (.279) are tops in the majors when it comes to facing southpaws. On the other end of the scale, the Washington Nationals (.215) and Miami Marlins (.223) can’t seem to catch up to lefties.

Quality starts

Baseball bettors want the best bang for their buck when handicapping starters. Getting six good innings from the starter puts you in a solid position to win most bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies are the exception to that train of thought. They lead the big leagues with 56 quality starts but have had most of those ruined by a bullpen ranked second worst in the majors.

Detroit (55 QS), Atlanta (54 QS), and Cincinnati (53 QS) are also among the leaders in quality starts. Minnesota (31 QS), Toronto (34), Colorado (35) and Milwaukee (35) have gotten the least from their starting staffs.

One-run games

Winning a baseball bet isn’t always easy and bettors will go through a few tough sweats over the course of 162 games. Teams with the ability to come through in crunch time make for smart wagers.

Cleveland owns an 18-8 mark in one-run games this season and Texas is right behind them at 15-8 in one-runners. Toronto and Philadelphia, two of the more costly bets this season, each boast a 9-16 record in one-run affairs.

BA with RISP and two outs

Clutch hitting is the difference between winning and losing a bet. Putting a play on a team that doesn’t crumble when the chips are down can keep you in the black over the course of a summer.

St. Louis is hitting .321 with runners in scoring position and two outs – best in the majors. Cleveland is tops in the American League with a .289 BA with RISP and two away. Cincinnati has put its tail between its legs with a .178 BA with RISP in two outs, and Milwaukee hasn’t been much better with a .182 mark in that situation.

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Vic Monte Sports

MLB Guaranteed PRIVATE PLAY - Cincinnati Reds -2.00

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Hondo

Tampa Bay Rays

"Hondo connected last night with the Phillies, who put a nippin’ on the Braves to cut the deficit back to three figures at 910 pizarros.
Tonight, Mr. Aitch will go to the mat with Moore — 20 units on the Rays to whale on Sale."

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bookiemonsters

pod astros under 8.5

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MLB Report

Hot pitchers
-- Eovaldi is 1-0, 2.00 in three starts this season.
-- Zimmerman is 3-0, 3.00 in his last three starts.
-- Bumgarner is 3-1, 1.93 in his last four starts. Fife is 2-0, 2.29 in his last three.
-- Marcum is 1-0, 1.93 in his last couple starts.
-- Kendrick is 1-1, 2.91 in his last three starts.

-- Latos is 3-2, 3.22 in his last seven starts.

-- Tillman is 6-0, 2.92 in his last six starts.
-- Dickey is 2-0, 1.13 in his last couple starts.
-- Sanchez is 2-1, 2.73 in his last four starts.
-- Moore is 3-0, 1.86 in his last three starts.
-- Parker is 4-0, 2.35 in his last seven starts, but has been battling a hamstring problem. Santana is 2-0, 2.94 in his last five.
-- Darvish is 1-1, 2.77 in his last six starts.
-- Dempster has a 3.24 RA in his last four starts.


Cold pitchers
-- Kelly lost his only '13 start, allowing two runs in 5.2 IP.
-- Marquis is 0-2, 6.48 in his last three starts.
-- Jackson is 1-2, 7.31 in his last three starts. Morton is 1-1, 5.50 in his four starts this season (Pirates won last three).
-- Gallardo is 0-2, 10.45 in his last three starts.
-- Braves lost Hudson's last eight road starts (0-6, 5.70 last six).
-- Pomeranz is 4-11, 5.13 in 27 MLB starts; he allowed four runs in 4.1 in his only MLB start this season. Miley is 0-2, 4.60 in his last five starts.

-- Bonderman is 0-2, 9.00 in three road starts this season.

-- Pettitte is 0-3, 6.20 in his last four starts.
-- Sale is 0-5, 3.61 in his last six starts; White Sox scored 13 runs in those six.
-- Carrasco is 0-3, 8.17 in five starts this season.
-- Pelfrey is 0-2, 5.34 in his last five starts.
-- Keuchel lost his last two starts, allowing 12 runs in nine IP.
-- Williams is 0-2, 5.85 in his last three starts.


Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........

-- Eovaldi 0-3; Kelly 0-1
-- Morton 1-4; Jackson 6-17
-- Marquis 5-17; Zimmerman 2-17
-- Fife 1-7; Bumgarner 1-17
-- Marcum 3-11; Gallardo 4-18
-- Hudson 3-17; Kendrick 6-17
-- Pomeranz 0-1; Miley 4-17

-- Bonderman 1-6; Latos 6-17

-- Tillman 4-17; Pettitte 4-14
-- Pelfrey 6-14; Dickey 5-18 (0 of last 6)
-- Parker 6-17; Santana 7-17
-- Sanchez 2-13; Carrasco 1-5
-- Sale 6-16; Moore 6-17
-- Keuchel 1-10; Darvish 5-16 (0 of last 6)
-- Dempster 6-16; Williams 2-10


Totals
-- Nine of last eleven Cub games went over the total.
-- Eleven of last thirteen Philly games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-3-1 in San Diego's last eleven games.
-- Ten of last thirteen New York games went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight St Louis home games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in Arizona's last seven games.
-- Six of last eight San Francisco games stayed under.

-- Under is 9-1-1 in last eleven Cincinnati home games.

-- 11 of last 16 Detroit games went over the total.
-- Four of last six Minnesota games went over total.
-- Nine of last eleven Baltimore games stayed under total.
-- Five of White Sox' last six games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Houston road games stayed under.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Kansas City games.
-- Last six Boston games stayed under the total.

Hot teams
-- Pirates won 11 of their last 13 games.
-- Washington won four of last six games, scoring 16 runs in last two.
-- Phillies won three of their last four games.
-- Mets won eight of their last eleven road games.
-- Marlins won ten of their last fourteen games.
-- Dodgers won 11 of their last 13 games.

-- Cincinnati won four of its last six games.

-- Detroit won its last four games, scoring 31 runs.
-- Bronx won its last five games, scoring 32 runs.
-- Tampa Bay won eight of its last twelve games.
-- Texas won 11 of its last 15 games.
-- A's won seven of their last nine games.
-- Red Sox won nine of their last ten games; Angels won eight of ten.


Cold teams
-- Cubs lost three of their last four games.
-- Padres lost 11 of their last 13 games.
-- Milwaukee lost eight of its last eleven games.
-- Atlanta lost its last three games, scoring ten runs.
-- Cardinals lost eight of their last twelve games; they're 3-11 in game after their last 14 wins.
-- Arizona lost eight of its last twelve games. Rockies lost seven of last ten.
-- Giants lost 12 of their last 14 games.

-- Mariners are 4-5 in their last nine road games.

-- Indians lost their last three games, allowing 23 runs.
-- Orioles lost three of their last four games.
-- Minnesota lost nine of its last eleven games. Toronto lost four of last six.
-- Royals are 5-6 in their last eleven home games.
-- Astros lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- White Sox lost seven of their last nine games.

Umpires
-- Mia-StL-- Underdogs won five of last six BWelke games.
-- Pitt-Chi-- Last six Cederstrom games went over the total.
-- SD-Wsh-- Last three Dreckman games went over the total.
-- LA-SF-- Five of last six Randazzo games stayed under total.
-- NY-Mil-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Hoye games.
-- Atl-Phil-- Underdogs won six of last seven Nauert games; under is 5-0-1 in his last six games behind the plate.
-- Col-Az-- Underdogs are 4-3 in last seven Tichenor games, with home sides winning his last five.

-- Sea-Cin-- Four of last five Porter games went over the total.

-- Blt-NY-- Underdogs are 7-5 in last twelve Meals games.
-- Min-Tor-- Favorites won 10 of last 13 Knight games.
-- A's-KC-- Under is 8-4 in last dozen Fairchild games, with underdogs 4-0 in his last four games behind the dish.
-- Det-Cle-- Last four West games stayed under the total.
-- Chi-TB-- Six of last eight Marquez games went over the total.
-- Hst-Tex-- Underdogs won last four Blaser games; over is 7-4-1 in his last 12 games behind the plate.
-- Bos-LA-- Eight of last twelve Tumpane games stayed under.

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Today's MLB Picks

Baltimore at NY Yankees

The Yankees look to build on their 9-1 record in Andy Pettitte's last 10 home starts against the Orioles. New York is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-120). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, JULY 6 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Miami at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Eovaldi) 15.395; St. Louis (Kelly) 16.944 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-175); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-175); Under

Game 903-904: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (4:05 a.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 15.973; Cubs (Jackson) 14.873 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-125); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-125); N/A

Game 905-906: San Diego at Washington (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Marquis) 13.451; Washington (Zimmermann) 15.112 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Washington (-220); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-220); Under

Game 907-908: LA Dodgers at San Francisco (7:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Fife) 14.124; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 15.317 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-150); 7 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-150); Over

Game 909-910: NY Mets at Milwaukee (7:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Marcum) 15.206; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 13.803 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 8 Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-115); Over

Game 911-912: Atlanta at Philadelphia (7:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 15.743; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 16.928 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-115); 8 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-105); Under

Game 913-914: Colorado at Arizona (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Pomeranz) 14.763; Arizona (Miley) 13.928 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Arizona (-160); 9 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+140); Over

Game 915-916: Baltimore at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 15.612; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 16.982 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-120); 9 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-120); Under

Game 917-918: Minnesota at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Pelfrey) 13.380; Toronto (Dickey) 15.246 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 2; 8 Vegas Line: Toronto (-210); 9 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-210); Under

Game 919-920: Oakland at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Parker) 15.823; Kansas City (Santana) 16.855 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-110); 8 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-110); Over

Game 921-922: Detroit at Cleveland (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 17.072; Cleveland (Carrasco) 14.936 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2; 8 Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 9 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-150); Under

Game 923-924: Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay (7:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Sale) 16.528; Tampa Bay (Moore) 15.312 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-145); 7 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+125); Over

Game 925-926: Houston at Texas (7:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Keuchel) 15.018; Texas (Darvish) 14.755 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Texas (-300); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+250); Over

Game 927-928: Boston at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Dempster) 16.808; LA Angels (Williams) 15.374 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 929-930: Seattle at Cincinnati (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Bonderman) 15.307; Cincinnati (Latos) 14.794 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-230); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+190); Over

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WNBA Basketball Picks

Connecticut at Indiana

The Sun look to take advantage of a Indiana team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games against Eastern Conference opponents. Connecticut is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+4 1/2). Here are all of today's picks

SATURDAY, JULY 6 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 651-652: San Antonio at Los Angeles (5:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 106.139; Los Angeles 122.557 Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 16 1/2; 156 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 13 1/2; 160 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-13 1/2); Under

Game 653-654: Seattle at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 105.733; Washington 114.460 Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 8 1/2; 149 Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 6 1/2; 144 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-6 1/2); Over

Game 655-656: Connecticut at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 109.770; Indiana 110.102 Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 147 Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 4 1/2; 142 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+4 1/2); Over

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1059-790 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner 9-1 run Sat: Pirates -125

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Saturday

DBacks -160

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Joe Wiz

Free Play Saturday Colorado/Arizona Under 9

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Don Best Consensus

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have been on a nice run as of late, going 11-2 in their last 13 games, while the Giants have been in a funk, going 1-10 in their last 11 games overall. Stephen Fife is 2-0 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in his last 3 starts, while Madison Bumgarner is 2-1 in his last 3 starts with a 2.14 ERA and 1.95 WHIP. Play the Dodgers.