7-6-13

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Scott Landau Saturday:

MIA +170 / ATL -117 / COL +152 / CLE +135

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jb pa connection
reds -1.5

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Kyle Hunter

MLB	Jul 06 '13 1:05p	Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays Take: Toronto Blue Jays -1½-110		in 4h
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Minnesota Twins are in a really messy situation right now. Josh Willingham has been the most consistent run producer on this team and he is out of the lineup now. Joe Mauer has been hitting, but the rest of the team hasn't been. Mike Pelfrey has an ERA over 6 on the road this year, and the Blue Jays offense is rounding into form. R.A. Dickey has looked much better in his last two starts, and the Twins haven't seen him much at all in the past. The Twins are 0-6 in their last 6. They are 0-5 in Pelfrey's last 5 starts as an underdog. Toronto is 7-0 in their last 7 as a favorite. They are 4-0 in Dickey's last 4 starts. Take Toronto -1.5.

MLB	Jul 06 '13 4:05p	Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Indians Take: Detroit Tigers -136		in 7h
*3 Star MLB Moneyline CASH* The Detroit Tigers dominated the Cleveland Indians ace in last night's game, and now they'll face the Indians worst starting pitcher. Carlos Carrasco has been terrible so far this year, and in his career he has a miserable 9.50 ERA in four starts against the Tigers. This lineup has torched him and I don't see that changing. Anibal Sanchez has a career ERA of 1.75 against the Indians. On a normal team, Sanchez would be a number one or two starter. The Tigers lineup is clearly better than the Indians and they have a huge edge on the mound here. Take the Tigers.

MLB	Jul 06 '13 4:05p	Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Take: Pittsburgh Pirates -115		in 7h
*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Pittsburgh Pirates dominated the Chicago Cubs as a small favorite yesterday at Wrigley and I think they can do the same again on Saturday. Charlie Morton hasn't been healthy much this year, but he isn't a bad pitcher and he'll face a weak Cubs lineup. On the other side, Edwin Jackson has 5.75 ERA and his ERA at Wrigley is well over 6. The Pirates offense has been great of late. Pittsburgh is 7-0 in their last 7 road games. They are 5-0 in their last 5 against the NL Central. They are 6-0 in their last 6 road games against a right-handed pitcher. The Pirates are 6-1 in their last 7 meetings with the Cubs. The Cubs are 1-6 in Jackson's last 7 home starts. Take Pittsburgh.

MLB	Jul 06 '13 4:05p	San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals Take: Washington Nationals -1½-105		in 7h
*3 Star MLB Run Line Value* The Washington Nationals are a much better team with Bryce Harper in the middle of the lineup. Harper is the game changer that this team really needs. In addition, the Nationals have a healthy Jayson Werth contributing. Rondon has turned into a solid contributor for the team as well. Jason Marquis isn't a pitcher I trust, and Jordan Zimmerman is completely the opposite. Zimmerman is 9-0 with a 1.50 ERA at home this year, and he has been very good in almost every start this season. Take the Nationals -1.5 here

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Kyle Hunter

4* Pittsburgh Pirates -115

3* Toronto Blue Jays -1½-110

3* Detroit Tigers -136

3* Washington Nationals -1½-105

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Tkwins

Toronto under 9 4 units
Detroit -147 4units
Tampa Bay under 7 3units

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TMC Sports Advisors

Tampa Bay -140

Washington -1.5 +100

Baltimore -105

Pittsburgh -125

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The War Report (not Root)

Det. -150

Tor rl -110

underdog-

chi wsox +130

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Joe Gavazzi Saturday:

Saturday, July 6th

MLB

Boston (Dempster) at LA Angels (Williams) (-110) 10:05 ET

3% Boston (Dempster) (EVEN)

The Red Sox transferred their winning streak to the West Coast with a 6-2 victory last night. While the Angels continue on solid runs of 14-7 and 8-2, that pales in comparison to the Red Sox run up of 28-11 with 5 straight victories. Now we get a pitching matchup that is in our favor. Though neither of these starters has a good history against the opponent, current form favors Dempster in this game. With injuries to Hanson and Vargas, Williams is forced to pitch on short rest following a Wednesday outing in which he allowed 7 runs in 1 2/3 IP of a 12-2 loss St. Louis. In 6 starts from this mound, Williams is 2-4 with a 4.37 ERA. Dempster’s record of 5-8 with a 4.11 ERA belies his recent consistency. Dempster has allowed 3 or less runs in each of his last 7 starts. Boston, the best team in the American League, as underdog is your value side in this one!



Miami (Eovaldi) at St. Louis (Kelly) (-190) 2:15 ET

3% Miami (Eovaldi) (+180)

Since the injury to reliable starting pitcher Jaime Garcia, St. Louis has been in flux with their 5th starter. Several recent days off have masked that deficiency. But today, this team who is on a 4-8 run, must turn to an unreliable option. In pitching mostly in relief, Kelly is 0-3 with a 3.86 ERA. Far prefer Eovaldi who, since returning to the rotation, has worked 18 IP with numbers of 1-0, 2.00 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Despite losing the opener in this weekend series, Miami remains on positive runs of 16-9 and 10-4. Make them a very live big dog in this pitching matchup.



Pittsburgh (Morton) (-125) at Chicago Cubs (Jackson) 4:05 ET

4% Pittsburgh (Morton) (-125)

Lone concern in this matchup is a June 9th start at Pittsburgh in which Jackson pitched his best game of the year in a 4-1 win vs. the Pirates. Even with that strong outing, the numbers for Jackson are horrendous. For the season, Jackson is 4-10 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. From this mound, those numbers decline to 1-5 with 6.69 ERA and .324 OBA. Pittsburgh has relied on the best pitching staff in baseball with a 3.14 ERA to ascend to the best record in MLB. That includes recent runs of 18-7 and 11-2. Leading the charge from the mound has been a bullpen that sports a 165 index (best in MLB) for the season. That unit got much needed rest courtesy of a complete game by Liriano yesterday. Now Pittsburgh sends Morton to the mound who in 4 starts has a 2.50 ERA with 1.22 WHIP. In a similar 4 starts vs. the Cubs, Morton has a 1.74 ERA. The following YTD dichotomy tells you much of what you need to know about these two teams this season. Pittsburgh is recently 22-4 vs. sub .500 teams while the Cubs are 16-37 vs. winning teams.



San Diego (Marquis) at Washington (Zimmerman) (-200) 4:05 ET

4% Washington (Zimmerman) (-200)

A no brainer to continue to fade San Diego especially with Zimmerman pitching at home. The Padres decline is now 2-11 (in which they have scored 34 runs and 0-7 in which they have been outscored 39-12. Storm clouds have at last erupted on Marquis after he had been running through raindrops the entire season. His respectable YTD record is 9-4 with a 3.74 ERA. But the peripherals tell a different story with 1.47 WHIP and 66/60 KBB. That KBB number translates to 5.4 walks per 9 IP, worst in MLB. In fact, in the last 2 games, Marquis has gone 0-2 in no small part because he issues 12 walks in 10 2/3 IP. Far prefer the best home pitcher in MLB, even at this price. In his last 13 home starts, Zimmerman is 12-0 with a 1.57 ERA. That includes 9-0 this year with a 1.50 ERA. In fact, Zimmerman has not lost in his last 21 starts from this mound. Make this a value play against the struggling Padres and Marquis.



LA Dodgers (Fife) at San Francisco (Bumgarner) (-160) 7:15 ET

3% LA Dodgers (Fife) (+150)

Never easy to go against Bumgarner who is on a positive run and always solid at home. In fact, recently Bumgarner is 4-1 with a 2.18 ERA. In his last 3 home starts, Bumgarner is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA. Yet the numbers for Fife are comparable with a solid 2.83 ERA for the season, 1.21 WHIP and 35/11 KBB. In his last 3 starts, those numbers accrue to 2-0, 1.82 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. One area in which these teams are not comparable is in their recent overall record. The defending Champs enter on negative slides of 11-24, 1-10 scoring 28 total runs in their last 14 games. The reborn Dodgers are recently 11-2 averaging 5.5 runs per game with 13 or more hits in each of their last 5 games. At this huge price, we must make LA your Big Dog Play of the Day!



Chicago White Sox (Sale) at Tampa Bay (Moore) (-135) 7:15 ET

4% Tampa Bay (Moore) (-135)

The pressure has become too great for Sale. With little run support, he struggled in June to go 0-5 despite a 3.19 ERA in his last 6 starts. A 3 game 4.05 ERA vs. Tampa Bay will do little to restore his confidence. Nor will the knowledge of the recent CWS run which has dropped to 10-25 and 2-7 following the 8-3 Friday night loss to the Rays. That victory boosted Tampa Bay’s recent surge to 34-20 and 9-3. Now they send reborn starter Moore to the mound. After starting 8-0 with a 2.99 ERA, control issues got the better of Moore in dropping him to a 5 game record of 0-3 with a 9.31 ERA. Yet Moore has rebounded smartly to go 3-0 allowing 4 runs with 24 Ks in 19 1/3 IP (despite 12 walks). That positive run should continue with the knowledge he has gone 2-1 with a 1.47 ERA vs. CWS. Run line players will take back a healthy price should they follow the fact that 39/47 Tampa Bay wins have come by 2 or more runs.

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Danny B
Braves-120

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Goodfella

Triple Dime BoSox

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Dominic Brando from RefPicks

MLB Underdog Game of the Day: Baltimore Orioles +105
National League Game of the Day: Washington Nationals -200
American League Game of the Day: Boston Red Sox +105
MLB Line Value Game of the Day: Atlanta Braves -115

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Ocal Sports

(3) Texas -1.5

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5Lines

Total Line for 07/06/2013
(Lost last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
MLB - Texas Rangers : u8.5
Cost: -110

Run Line for 07/06/2013
(Lost last game)
Today's Winning Team is:
MLB - Seattle Mariners : +1.5
Cost: -105

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Sports Cash System

free pick:
Atlanta Braves -118 over the Philadelphia Phillies (MLB Baseball)

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Vincent Rizzo Sports

MLB PREMIUM PLAYS

BALTIMORE +105 (1.00U)

TAMPA BAY -133 (1.33U)

ARIZONA -160 (1.60U)