7-7-13

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INDIAN COWBOY

Canadian Football

3-Unit Play. #428. Take Hamilton Tiger-Cats -7 Over Edmonton (Sunday @ 5:05 pm est)
The Tiger-Cats club hired former CFL quarterback and head coach Kent Austin as its vice-president of football operations, GM and coach. The Hamilton Tiger-Cats will play their home games in Guelph, Ont., as a new venue is built where Ivor Wynne Stadium, once stood. Offensively, quarterback Quinton Porter and running backs Martel Mallett and Avon Cobourne were released while receiver/returner Chris Williams remains embroiled in a contract dispute. However, don't expect that their offence will take that much of a dip. Hamilton is a scoring machine so far this season as they scored (33) in first preseason game and (52) in second preseason game and then (34) points in week (1) regular season. But since preseason records don't count they sit at (0-1) after losing last week on the road at Toronto (34-39). A priority was revamping a defence that allowed (32) points (league-high) and (409) yards (second-most) per game. Veteran linebacker Rey Williams, defensive backs Bo Smith and Geoff Tisdale were released while linebacker Shomari Williams, defensive lineman Brian Bulke and defensive backs Evan McCullough and James Patrick were signed. They face Edmonton who is (0-1) too as they lost (18-39) last week versus Saskatchewan. Edmonton has not broken (30) points this season in preseason or regular season as they scored (24) week 1 preseason and then (27) week (2) preseason and just (18) last week. Edmonton is (5-12) ATS last (17) head to head meetings, (1-4) ATS in their last (5) road games and (2-5) ATS in their last (7) week (2) games. Edmonton is (5-12) ATS last (17) head to head meetings, (1-4) ATS in their last (5) road games and (2-5) ATS in their last (7) week (2) games. This could be the year we see the Black and Gold back near the top of the East.

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Handicapping Kings

JIMMY

CFL

HAMILTION -6.5 EDMONTON (5PM)

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Lackey, Weaver Take The Hill Sunday in Anaheim
by Brian Graham

First pitch: Sunday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: TBD

The Red Sox and Angels wrap up their three game series Sunday night with a strong pitching matchup.

Although L.A.'s Jered Weaver is much more accomplished than Boston's John Lackey in their careers, Lackey (6-5, 2.81 ERA) is in the midst of a career year, while Weaver (2-4, 3.79 ERA) is having a subpar season for his standards. Both teams are red-hot entering this series, as both the Red Sox and Angels are 8-1 in their past nine games. While Boston has scored 5.7 runs per game during this nine-game stretch, L.A. has been doing it with pitching, allowing two runs or less in five of these nine contests. Both offenses have been strong all season though, with the Red Sox ranking first or second in the majors in runs (445, 1st), getting on base (.351 OBP, 1st), batting (.278 BA, 2nd) and slugging (.448 SLG, 2nd), while the Angels place among the top-nine teams in the majors in getting on base (.330 OBP, 4th), hitting (.267 BA, 6th), slugging (.417 SLG, 7th) and scoring (395 runs, 9th) through Thursday's action. The Red Sox won two of the three meetings this season, but the Angels have a slight 9-8 advantage in this series over the past three years. Entering this series, Boston has been a great road team at 22-18 (.550, 4th in MLB), but Los Angeles has struggled to win at home, going 22-24 (.478, 24th in MLB) at Angel Stadium of Anaheim.

Lackey (1.17 WHIP) not only has the best ERA of his 11-year career, but his 8.2 K/9 rate is the highest it has been since 2005, and his .246 opponents' BA matches his career-best mark set in 2006. Lackey has thrown eight quality starts in his past nine outings, going 5-1 with a 2.26 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 52 K's in 59.2 innings. This includes four straight quality outings where he's lasted at least seven frames in all four starts, tallying a 3-0 record with a 2.17 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 27 K's and just three walks in 29 innings. Despite all these great numbers, Boston is just 7-7 when Lackey starts this season, including a 3-5 mark on the road where the right-hander sports a so-so 4.17 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Considering Lackey pitched for eight seasons with Los Angeles, he's very familiar with the Angel Stadium mound. In 114 starts at this venue, he is 51-32 (.614) with a 3.66 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 7.2 K/9. However, in two starts as a visiting player in a Red Sox uniform, he's 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. He hasn't faced his former team since 2011, but is 4-1 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in five career starts against them. However, current players on the Angels roster have had great collective success versus Lackey in their careers, batting .356 with a .400 OBP and .586 SLG. OF Josh Hamilton has destroyed him the most (12-for-27, 4 HR, 9 RBI) while 3B Alberto Callaspo has also thrived (5-for-14, 1 HR, 5 RBI). Lackey knows he'll have to go deep into the game to earn the victory, as his injury-laden bullpen has been shaky all season with a 4.04 ERA (22nd in MLB) and 1.38 WHIP (25th in majors).

Weaver (1.21 WHIP) allowed 13 runs in 17.2 innings in his first three starts back from injury, but he seems to be finally hitting his stride. In the past two starts against excellent hitting teams, the Tigers (5.0 runs per game, 2nd in MLB) and Cardinals (5.0 runs per game, 3rd in majors), Weaver has allowed one run in seven innings for each outing, combining for 11 K's and two walks. The right-hander has usually been amazing in his own ballpark, going 34-11 (.756) with a 2.26 ERA at home from 2009 to 2012, but this season, he's a pedestrian 2-2 with a 3.48 ERA in five starts at Angel Stadium despite impeccable control (26 K's, 5 BB's). He's also been mediocre against the Red Sox in his career, going 3-5 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over 13 starts. The last time he faced them -- last August at home -- he allowed five runs (four earned) and seven hits in seven innings of a no-decision. Although he's done a nice job of battling pesky 2B Dustin Pedroia (5-for-25, 7 K's), Weaver has struggled versus sluggers DH David Ortiz (10-for-29, 2 HR, 9 RBI) and 1B Mike Napoli (8-for-25, 2 HR). Weaver doesn't have a great relief corps to pick him up, as the L.A. bullpen carries a 3.88 ERA (19th in majors) and a 1.31 WHIP (18th in MLB).

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Yankees extend win streak to six; faves Sunday vs. O's

The New York Yankees extended their winning streak to a season-high six games with a 5-4 victory over the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday.

Any $100 bettor would be up $548.59 if they had wagered on each game of the streak.

The Bronx Bombers have a pair of shortstops on the mend. Eduardo Nunez returned to the lineup Saturday after missing two months of action with a strained left oblique and All-Star SS Derek Jeter (ankle) began a rehab assignment in the minors Saturday night.

The Yankees are -137 in the finale of a three-game set with the O’s on Sunday and will send Hiroki Kuroda (7-6, 2.95) to the hill. Baltimore will counter with Jason Hammel (7-5, 5.19).

The Orioles are 0-6 in Hammel’s last six starts and only 1-7 in their last eight road games.

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Sunday Night Baseball: Red Sox at Angels
By STEVE MERRIL

Two of the most potent offenses in the American League meet on Sunday Night as the Los Angeles Angels host the Boston Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels (-140, 8.5)

DREAM WEAVER

Jered Weaver is 2-4 with a 3.79 ERA for the Angels, although he’s pitching much better as of late. The righty has allowed just two runs in his last 14 innings of work, shutting down two good offenses in St. Louis and Detroit. Those outings were significantly better than his previous three starts in which he gave up four earned runs or more in games against Pittsburgh, New York and Baltimore. Weaver’s control has been pretty good except for two starts when he gave up four walks each time. He has not seen the Red Sox since a two-game stretch in August of last year when he picked up a win and a no-decision. Weaver allowed seven runs and 14 hits over 14 innings in those two meetings.

WELCOME BACK LACKEY

John Lackey is 6-5 with a 2.81 ERA for Boston. He has a 2.17 ERA in his last four starts; opponents are hitting just .246 against him overall this season. The Boston starter has been remarkably consistent allowing two runs or less in seven of his last ten outings. He has yielded just four walks in his last six starts and has struck out 18 batters in his last two games. Lackey faced his former team back in 2011 when he got shelled to the tune of eight runs and 10 hits in just four innings.

INJURY REPORT

The Angels and Red Sox do not have many big names on their injury lists. Los Angeles is without Peter Bourjos, Tommy Hanson, Jason Vargas, Sean Burnett and Ryan Madson, although none of those injuries are hampering their results. Vargas and Burnett could both return after the All-Star break. Madson is recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Boston is waiting for Clay Buchholz to get healthy as he deals with a neck strain and inflammation in his shoulder. They are also without Joel Hanrahan due to Tommy John surgery, while Stephen Drew is out with a hamstring ailment.

TRENDS

Red Sox are 6-1 in Lackey’s last seven Sunday starts
The under is 7-3-1 in Lackey’s last 11 Sunday starts.
Angels are 40-13 in Weaver’s last 53 home starts
The under is 37-13-6 in Weaver’s last 56 home starts.

HITTERS TO WATCH

David Ortiz 10-for-29 vs. Weaver
Dustin Pedroia 5-for-25 vs. Weaver

Josh Hamilton 12-for-27 vs. Lackey
Alberto Callaspo 5-for-14 vs. Lackey

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Eskimos at Ti-Cats: What bettors need to know

Edmonton Eskimos at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-7, 55.5)

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats will open their home season at their home-away-from-home when the Edmonton Eskimos visit Sunday. Ivor Wynne Stadium was demolished in February to make way for a new stadium the Tiger-Cats will call home in 2014. Until then, Hamilton will play its home games in nearby Guelph, Ontario, at Alumni Stadium - home to the University of Guelph Gryphons, which has a normal seating capacity of 7,600, but is expected to hold 12,000-15,000 for CFL games.

Edmonton finished Week 1 at the bottom of the CFL power rankings after a lacklustre showing at home against the Saskatchewan Roughriders when they recorded one point in the first half. Eskimos quarterback Mike Reilly, who made his debut as Edmonton’s starter and threw three interceptions in the 39-18 loss, vowed to be better in Week 2. The Eskimos’ defense, which was supposed to be their strength, will have to be better as well after it failed to contain a Roughriders' offense that was without Geroy Simon.

TV: 5 p.m. ET, TSN, RDS2

ABOUT THE ESKIMOS (0-1): One bright spot for Reilly was his connection with veteran SB Fred Stamps, who caught six passes for 125 yards and one touchdown in the season opener. Unfortunately, Edmonton’s running game was non-existent, combining for 88 yards - 43 fewer than Kory Sheets recorded for Saskatchewan. LB JC Sherritt was the only member of the Eskimos' defense to record a sack, along with a team-leading seven tackles. DB Donovan Alexander, who missed last week’s game with a muscle strain, will be in the lineup against Hamilton, which should bolster Edmonton’s pass defense.

ABOUT THE TIGER-CATS (0-1): Hamilton QB Henry Burris picked up where he left off after a career year, throwing for 361 yards and three touchdowns and rushing for another 36 yards to open the season. The 38-year-old looked as fresh as ever, connecting with WR Andy Fantuz for 155 yards and rookie WR Greg Ellingson for another 120. But the most surprising performance belonged to rookie KR Lindsey Lamar, who returned a kickoff 104 yards for a touchdown in the first regular-season touch of his career after recording kick return touchdowns in each of Hamilton’s two preseason games.

TRENDS:

* The Eskimos are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
* The Tiger-Cats are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games in July.
* Over is 7-0-1 in Eskimos last eight games overall.
* The Eskimos are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Hamilton scored three touchdowns and a field goal in its first four possessions, but only managed a field goal in the second half of its 39-34 loss to Toronto.

2. Edmonton was 2-7 on the road last year.

3. The only other player in CFL history to return a kickoff for a touchdown in his first career touch is former Tiger-Cat RB Marcus Thigpen, who is entering his second season with the Miami Dolphins.

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MLB Top 3: Under the radar money pitchers

As the MLB All-Star Game fast approaches, we thought we'd take a look at some pitchers who might not receive the plaudits of the Patrick Corbin's and Jordan Zimmerman's of the world. These guys don't have the dominant numbers of some of the top starters, but are earning money for bettors nonetheless.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Cleveland Indians (6-4, 4.67 ERA, +7.69 units)

Remember when Jimenez went 15-1 heading into the All-Star break in 2010? Well, he hasn't quite recaptured that form, but he's snagging some money for Cleveland backers. The numbers don't blow you away. The record is ho-hum, the ERA is pedestrian and his 1.47 WHIP puts him in the company of Joe Saunders and Scott Diamond. But the Tribe give him 5.24 runs of support and he manages to keep the club in ball games, thus giving them a chance to win. The Tribe have won four of his previous five starts.

Jorge De La Rosa, Colorado Rockies (8-5, 3.19 ERA, +6.23 units)

De La Rosa is currently No. 12 in the money standings and has been the Rockies' best starter. The southpaw leads the club in wins, ERA, strikeouts and quality starts. The Rockies are 12-6 in all 18 of his outings this season and a stellar 7-1 in his starts at Coors Field. De La Rosa is a big reason the Rockies are in contention in the NL West.

Jeanmar Gomez, Pittsburgh Pirates (2-0, 2.70 ERA, +10.24 units)

Gomez has only two victories on his record for the year, but the Pirates have won all eight of his starts. He is currently third in pitcher money standings and has capitalized on his starts this year. The emergence of Gerrit Cole and the return of A.J. Burnett from the DL has seen Gomez move back to the bullpen. The righty is a worth a look if the Bucs need to use him in the rotation at any point for the remainder of the season.

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Wimbledon action report: Action split for men's final

The 2013 edition of the Wimbledon Championships has been rife with upsets on both the men's and women's side. The ladies' draw saw Marion Bartoli prevail as champion Saturday as she defeated Serena-slayer Sabine Lisicki 6-1, 6-4.

Despite a bevy of upsets early in the men's draw, the cream has risen to the top as No. 1 Novak Djokovic goes up against No. 2 Andy Murray in the final.

We talk to Aron Black of Bet365 about the men's final at the All England Tennis Club.

Novak Djokovic (-175) v Andy Murray (+150)

"This one couldn’t be more balanced with the action taken so far," Black told Covers. "It's the anticipated final, especially with the early exits of Nadal and Federer."

Murray will look to build on his runner-up showing having lost to Roger Federer by a score of 4–6, 7–5, 6–3, 6–4 in the 2012 final.

One thing is for sure - Murray has the firm support of the British public.

"Prices on this have been pretty much known, so it has been solid trade both sides," says Black. "Obviously the British public are siding with Murray and we will see a flurry of those backing him as the game edges closer, however the prices should remain as they are."

Djokovic advanced to the finals following an epic, five-set clash with Argentinian Juan Martin Del Potro, but Black believes any after-effects or fatigue will have been aided by the day off.

Black also added that the Serb has been heavily backed in the futures book from +125 to the final price of -175.

"However the action goes as we near the final, and it should be pretty balanced," Black concludes, "we will be cheering for a Murray victory."

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Cappers Access

Brewers -115
Angels (RL) -1.5 +150

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SportsWagers CFL

Today's Free Picks for Jul 07, 2013


Edmonton @ HAMILTON
Edmonton +7½ -110 over HAMILTON

Everyone loves offense, at least most bettors prefer to bet on a team that can score and often shy away from teams that cannot. In the first week of the CFL, every team went off for some serious offensive stats with the exception of the Eskimos. The 12 points that the Eskies threw up in the fourth quarter last week against the Riders was all “garbage time” points. That lack of offense by Edmonton combined with the Tigercats strong offensive showing has the dog undervalued here. What should not go ignored is that the Eskimos fell behind by a big margin early and were forced to play catch-up in the first game of the year. That’s difficult to do in the middle of the year, let alone in the season opener. It also occurred against Saskatchewan, a team that looks primed to make a serious Grey Cup run after a 2-0 start in which the Riders outscored the opposition 75-39. The Eskies, although they have an unproven QB in Mike Reilly, still have plenty of talent, a decent defense and very good special teams. They will have a better game today and despite what the numbers say, we actually liked what we saw in Reilly. It was his first CFL start in real time and he’ll be much better today against the awful defense of the Tigercats. Hamilton lost last week to Toronto but probably deserved a better fate. That said, the Ti-Cats defense is a mess. Missed coverage, big play after big play and 490 yards of Argos offense was too much to overcome for the Tabbies. When your defense can’t stop the marching band, spotting more than a converted TD is risky business. Hamilton’s offense is scary good. They have so many weapons and they could easily go off for another crooked number today. However, the TiCats have proven over the years that they cannot be trusted to win by a margin when asked to do so. They have a long track record of underperforming when they’re supposed to win and that applies here. The Eskimos were embarrassed last week and it’s usually not a good idea to spot this many points to a team that was blown out the previous week. That, too, applies here.

Our Pick
Edmonton +7½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)

Season to Date

5

2

0.00

+6.00

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Pettibone is 1-0, 2.71 in his last three starts. Medlen is 3-0, 4.05 in his last three starts.
-- Strasburg is 3-1, 1.59 in his last eight starts.
-- Fernandez is 2-1, 1.95 in his last five starts.
-- Hefner is 2-0, 2.84 in his last three starts.
-- Kershaw is 1-1, 1.95 in his last five starts. Gaudin is 2-0, 3.38 in four starts this season.

-- Saunders is 2-1, 1.57 in his last four road starts. Reds won six of last seven Arroyo home starts (4-0, 2.55).

-- Former Angel Lackey is 3-0, 2.17 in his last four starts. Weaver is 1-0, 1.29 in his last couple starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Erlin is 1-1, 4.32 in three starts this season.
-- Burnett was 1-1, 5.12 in his last three starts before going on DL. Villanueva is 0-3, 6.94 in his last four starts, last of which was May 14.
-- Lynn is 0-2, 5.93 in his last couple starts.
-- Peralta is 1-3, 5.35 in his last six starts.
-- Oswalt is 0-3, 7.88 in three starts this season. Corbin is 0-2, 3.71 in his last five starts; despite that, Arizona is 15-2 in his starts this season.

-- Hammel is 0-3, 5.55 in his last six starts. Kuroda is 1-2, 4.01 in his last five.
-- Kluber is 1-1, 8.04 in his last three starts. Sanchez was 1-1, 4.15 in his last three starts, before going on DL.
-- Redmond allowed three runs in 7.2 IP in three outings this season; this will be his second MLB start (allowed four runs in 3.1 IP in start for Reds LY). He is 3-1, 5.06 in five AAA starts this season. Diamond is 1-3, 7.42 in his last five starts.
-- Price is 0-2, 6.44 in five home starts this season. Danks is 1-3, 5.33 in his last four starts.
-- Mendoza is 0-1, 5.74 in his last three starts. Griffin is 1-2, 4.59 in his last five starts.
-- Grimm is 2-3, 9.62 in his last six starts. Bedard is 2-2, 4.60 in his last five.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Medlen 6-17; Pettibone 3-14
-- Erlin 1-3; Strasburg 4-16 (0 of last 10)
-- Hefner 6-16 (1 of last 7); Peralta 4-18 (0 of last 5)
-- Fernandez 3-15; Lynn 4-17
-- Burnett 3-14; Villanueva 5-8
-- Kershaw 2-18; Gaudin 0-4
-- Oswalt 1-3; Corbin 3-17 (0 of last 6)

-- Saunders 5-17; Arroyo 1-17

-- Hammel 6-17; Kuroda 6-17
-- Diamond 6-15; Redmond 0-0
-- Fister 4-17; Kluber 2-13
-- Danks 2-8; Price 3-10
-- Griffin 1-17; Mendoza 3-13
-- Bedard 8-15; Grimm 6-15
-- Lackey 5-14; Weaver 2-9

Totals
-- Nine of last twelve Cub games went over the total.
-- 12 of last 14 Philly games went over the total.
-- Over is 8-3-1 in San Diego's last twelve games.
-- 11 of last 14 New York games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine St Louis home games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-1-1 in Arizona's last eight games.
-- Seven of last nine San Francisco games stayed under.

-- Under is 9-2-1 in last twelve Cincinnati home games.

-- 12 of last 17 Detroit games went over the total.
-- Three of last four games for both Twins/Jays stayed under.
-- Under is 9-2-1 in last dozen Baltimore games.
-- Six of White Sox' last seven games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last nine Houston road games stayed under.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Kansas City games.
-- Six of last seven Boston games stayed under the total.

Hot teams
-- Pirates won 11 of their last 14 games.
-- Washington won five of their last seven games.
-- Mets won eight of their last twelve road games.
-- Cardinals won three of their last four games.
-- Dodgers won 11 of their last 14 games.

-- Cincinnati won five of its last seven games.

-- Detroit won its last five games, scoring 40 runs.
-- Bronx won its last six games, scoring 37 runs.
-- Tampa Bay won nine of its last thirteen games.
-- Texas won 11 of its last 16 games.
-- A's won seven of their last ten games. Royals won three of last four.
-- Red Sox/Angels both won nine of their last eleven games.

Cold teams
-- Cubs are 5-9 in their last fourteen home games.
-- Padres lost 12 of their last 14 games.
-- Milwaukee lost eight of its last twelve games.
-- Atlanta lost three of its last four games. Phillies lost four of six at home.
-- Marlins lost last two games, scoring five runs.
-- Rockies lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- Giants lost 12 of their last 15 games.

-- Mariners are 4-6 in their last ten road games.

-- Indians lost their last four games, allowing 32 runs.
-- Orioles lost four of their last five games.
-- Minnesota lost nine of its last twelve games. Toronto lost five of last seven.
-- Astros lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- White Sox lost eight of their last ten games.

Umpires
-- Mia-StL-- Seven of last nine Johnson games stayed under total.
-- Pitt-Chi-- Five of last six Danley games stayed under the total.
-- SD-Wsh-- Wolcott's first two games behind plate had total of 12 runs.
-- LA-SF-- Underdogs won nine of last eleven Vanover games.
-- NY-Mil-- Underdogs won 13 of last 19 Davidson games; home teams won five of his last six games behind plate.
-- Atl-Phil-- Underdogs won six of last ten Eddings games.
-- Col-Az-- Seven of last nine Scott games stayed under the total.

-- Sea-Cin-- Four of last five Estabrook games went over the total.

-- Blt-NY-- Home team won five of last six Davis games.
-- Min-Tor-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Emmel games.
-- A's-KC-- Underdogs are 3-3 (+$101) in last six Foster games.
-- Det-Cle-- Six of last seven Holbrook games stayed under total.
-- Chi-TB-- Four of last five Barry games stayed under the total.
-- Hst-Tex-- Six of last eight Nelson games went over the total.
-- Bos-LA-- Over is 11-7 in Winters' last 18 games behind plate.

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Today's CFL Picks

Edmonton at Hamilton

The Eskimos look to take advantage of a Hamilton team that is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games against a team with a losing record. Edmonton is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Eskimos favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+7). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

SUNDAY, JULY 7 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST (7/3)

Game 427-428: Edmonton at Hamilton (5:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 112.462; Hamilton 111.921 Dunkel Line: Edmonton by 1; 60 Vegas Line: Hamilton by 7; 55 Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+7); Over

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1059-791 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner 9-2 run Sun: Braves -130

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Sunday

Nationals -1.5