7-7-13

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SuperSportsGroup MLB

Minnesota v. Toronto 1:05pm
PICK: Twins ML +145 Game

Detroit v. Cleveland 1:05pm
PICK: OVER 8.5 Game -115
PICK: Indians ML +120 Game

LA v. San Fran 4:05pm
PICK: Giants ML +155 Game

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Dave Essler

SF RL 1.5

Over Detroit

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Sports Handicapper King CFL

Edmonton

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Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider (plus-$5,495last 9 days)
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Pit Pirates at 2:20 ET.

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Jimmy Boyd

3* (MLB) Philadelphia Phillies ML +118
3* (MLB) Kansas City Royals ML +130
3* (MLB) Chicago Cubs ML +130

JULY TOTAL 6-7 -10 Units
1-2
2-2
3-3

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Tkwins

Yankees -125 3units
Seattle under 9 3units
LA Dodgers under 6.5 3units

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SportsWagers MLB

Today's Free Picks for Jul 07, 2013





Minnesota @ TORONTO
Minnesota +151 over TORONTO

To say Scott Diamond's moderate success this season and last is a surprise would be an understatement. Diamond lost 19 games between Triple-A and a brief stint in the majors in 2011 with a 6.28 ERA. Then something clicked, as he cut his control in half and anchored the Twins rotation for the majority of 2012. However, the sustainability of his success depends on multiple factors. His weak strikeout rate means he’s at the mercy of hit%, strand rate % and must rely heavily on his defense. Diamond's skill set lends itself to polarizing results but he also has an upper-tier 59% groundball rate and he knows he’s going to be pitching every fifth day for the remainder of this year. Diamond does not get rattled and at this price against Todd Redmond, he and the Twinkies are certainly worth a play. Hell, if Mike Pelfrey could come in here and easily beat R.A. Dickey, surely Diamond has an equal chance of doing the same to Redmond.
Redmond takes over the vacated slot left open by Chien-Ming Wang who took over for the vacated Russ Ortiz. Think about that for a second. Wang and Ortiz were chosen over Redmond to begin with and it’s not like Redmond is a young, up and coming player that they wanted to mold a little longer. He’s 28 and has over 1200 innings pitched in the minors. Redmond surrendered more than a hit an inning at Triple-AAA Buffalo this season. Redmond has fine control but he also has a troubling 57% fly-ball rate. Redmond has been in the system of the Pirates, Braves, Reds, and Royals before joining the Jays. In a league desperate for good pitchers, they all can’t be wrong and if Redmond and the Jays win today, good for them but we’re going with the best of it here in terms of value.


Our Pick
Minnesota +151 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.02)






Boston @ L.A. ANGELS
Boston +121 over L.A. ANGELS

John Lackey owned some of the best skills of any starter in June with an outstanding BB/K split of 4/29 in 37 innings, a 2.86 ERA and a 49% groundball rate. His current year to date command and 50% groundball rate both are the best levels of his career. If you're still clouded by his disastrous '12, it's time to put him on your radar again because John Lackey is back.
Jered Weaver is considered to an ace and that label has this very average pitcher extremely overvalued every time he takes the hill. It's been a season so far that Jered Weaver would like to forget. He's been far from the pitcher who was among the league's best for three seasons. We hate to say we told you so (okay, maybe we like to a little bit), but we pointed out a trend that made him a risky pick and that pigeon, as they say, has come home to roost. Weaver’s strikeout rate shows significant decline over the past few years, without any gains in control to offset it. In fact, his control is way off this year, making a bad situation worse. Weaver’s xERA trend highlighted the risks. Despite his fine surface stats in 2012, his 4.31 xERA was a warning sign. Out-of-the-ordinary hit % and strand % kept his ERA down and those have now normalized. There are really no signs here that point to a rebound to his elite status. Perhaps he will get stronger as the season progresses, but that's just speculation. The skills right now point to a guy who's going to have to be at his best to stay above replacement level and it’s not a sudden thing either. With a 32% groundball rate over eight years in the majors, Weaver has outpitched his xERA longer than any pitcher in the majors. He’s a below average pitcher and it’s finally caught up to him.


Our Pick
Boston +121 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.42)

Yesterday	0	2	0.00	-4.00
Last 30 Days	40	41	0.00	+17.88
Season to Date	129	134	0.00	+33.90

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Todays Best Bets

(5 UNITS)Bal/NYY - UNDER 9
Betting $625 to win $500

(5 UNITS)Atl/Phi - UNDER 8.5
Betting $525 to win $500

(5 UNITS) Nationals -1.5
Betting $540 to win $500

(4 UNITS) Royals
Betting $400 to win $520

(3 UNITS) Indians
Betting $300 to win $372

(3 UNITS) Red Sox
Betting $300 to win $387

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Handicapping Kings

JIMMY

MLB

DETROIT/CLEVELAND - OVER 8.5 -120 (1PM)

WASHINGTON -1.5 -115 SD (135PM)

LA/SF - UNDER 6.5 -110 (4PM)

COLORADO/ARIZONA - UNDER 9 -115 (4PM)

WNBA

MINNESOTA -7.5 PHOENIX (7PM)

CFL

HAMILTION -6.5 EDMONTON (5PM)

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John Ryan

30* Boston

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Beathespread MLB 7/7

NATIONALS
RED SOX
MARLINS
TIGERS

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Betting Line Moves

Chicago Sky -2

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Anthony Redd

75 dime - San Francisco/Los Angeles Under 6.5

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Craig Davis

75 dime - Miami/St.Louis Under 7.5 runs

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Chris torrisi 4 unit sf Giants team total under 3