7-9-13

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See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN

Spot bets are a classic handicapping practice that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Lookahead spot

The MLB All-Star break is just around the corner. The brief hiatus can be a speed bump for streaking teams and a moment of mercy for struggling ones. The Detroit Tigers have used the Mid-Summer Classic as a kickoff to the “real season”, going a collective 90-61 following the All-Star break the past two seasons.

Detroit is set up for a double lookahead this week. Not only are the Tigers counting down to the post-ASG schedule but take on the lowly Chicago White Sox for three games, starting Tuesday, before a showdown with the Texas Rangers to end the first half of the schedule. The White Sox are small potatoes compared to the Rangers, who will likely be battling Detroit for playoff positioning and possibly a wild card spot come the fall.

Letdown spot

The two conference leaders in the WNBA do battle when the Minnesota Lynx host the Atlanta Dream Tuesday night. Oddsmakers have set the Lynx (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS) as 6.5-point favorites for that high-profile matchup. A win over the 10-1 Dream would crown Minnesota as the team to beat in 2013.

The Lynx are back in action following that important game Thursday, visiting the stumbling Indiana Fever. The two teams met in last year’s WNBA Finals, but Indiana has fallen from grace with a 4-7 SU and ATS start to the season. Minnesota could get caught in a big letdown spot, especially with the Fever showing some of their championship swagger in recent games.

Schedule spot

The Miami Dolphins have one of the weirdest schedules for the 2013 NFL season. Miami opens with five non-divisional games and closes against three straight AFC East foes. Not only that, the Dolphins find themselves playing four games in just over three weeks in November.

Miami is at New England for a grinder in Week 8 (+7) then hosts the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football in Week 9 (-1). The Dolphins come off that short week with another primetime matchup at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football in Week 10 (+1.5) before finishing this tough four-game, 22-day stretch with a home date versus the San Diego Chargers in Week 11 (-3).

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Winning MLB pitchers that are horrible bets

Here are four pitchers that have won more games than they’ve lost, but have been killing bettors to this point in the season:

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are 10-8 in Verlander’s starts to date but a $100 bettor would be down $348 if they had wagered on each of the fireballer’s outings. Sharp bettors are instead fading the Tigers when the 2011 AL MVP takes the hill and betting the over to a tune of 11-6-1.

Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers

The Rangers are 10-8 when Darvish gets the ball and $100 bettors are in the red $499 on the righty’s 18 starts. The Japanese export really burned bettors in his most recent start against the Houston Astros when Texas fell as a hearty -320 favorite.

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

Kershaw boasts a league-best 1.89 ERA but that isn’t impressing bettors. The Dodgers are 11-8 in the lefty’s outings and that's resulted in a $291 loss for $100 bettors in each of his starts. But there may be hope in the second half of the season for Kershaw bettors. L.A. has wins in 12 of its last 15 games and won each of his last three starts.

Matt Harvey, New York Mets

The Mets are used to their role as underdogs on a nightly basis, but they’re almost always favorites when Harvey toes the rubber. The righty has only been a dog twice in his 18 starts and has put $100 bettors $320 in the hole. Surprisingly, New York has a 9-7-1 over/under record in Harvey’s starts.

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Three bad MLB teams that are good bets lately

The Seattle Mariners, New York Mets and Chicago Cubs have been fade material all season, but all three clubs have been a good bet lately.

Let's take a closer look:

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners couldn't have asked for a better road trip, as they took back-to-back series' and six of eight games from the Rangers and Reds. Seattle won all six of those games as an underdog and returns home for a four-game set with the Boston Red Sox on Monday night.

New York Mets

New York has quietly posted a 12-8 record since June 18th, with nine of those victories coming in an underdog role. The Mets head to San Francisco to take on the struggling Giants for a three-game set beginning Monday. New York has also been a great over play recently, going 7-1 over/under over its past eight contests.

Chicago Cubs

At 7-4 over their last 11 games, the Cubbies are finally giving their faithful something to cheer about. With the trade deadline rapidly approaching, Chicago’s potential players on the move should continue to step up and showcase their talents for the next few weeks.

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Bettors winning big during the 'Underdog Days of Summer'
By JASON LOGAN

A rash of huge sports betting upsets are giving new meaning to the term "Dog Days of Summer".

Even though sports bettors are just over a week into July, this summer has already provided plenty of jaw-dropping underdog wins and the bountiful windfalls that accompany those stunners.

For the most part, underdog wins are good for sportsbooks. While a handful of hopeful bettors rake in a big payday, the majority of the money lands on the favorite. However, sometimes the betting public falls in love with the live dog and sticks it to the bookies when that dog bites back.

From Wimbledon to Weidman, here are some underdog winners of note to kick off the summer.

Wimbledon

The wackiness at Wimbledon actually started in late June when Rafael Nadal (-15,000) suffered a first-round stunner versus Steve Darcis (+2,800), followed by an insane second round that saw Roger Federer (-20,000 vs. Sergiy Stakhovsky +3,300), Maria Sharapova (-6,600 vs. Michelle Larcher de Brito +2,000), Caroline Wozniacki, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and other top seeds bow out.

Women’s favorite Serena Williams (-1,600) was upset by Sabine Lisicki (+900) in the fourth round and Andy Murray snapped a 77-year British drought at the All-England Club in the men’s final. Marion Bartoli finished off the tournament with another win for the dogs, after she took out Lisicki in the women's final and paid off her pre-tourney bettors at +8,000. Murray was a modest +333 to win Wimbledon.

According to Bet365.com, a parlay involving upsets of Nadal, Federer, Sharapova and Williams would have paid out at 320-to-1. However, not having the big names make it deep into a tournament is a double-edge sword for sportsbooks. They clean up on all the futures bets on those stars but see interest in the event sputter because of a lack of name power.

“Action in the early rounds of tournaments is minimal compared to the quarters and semis, so not having star power like Serena, Nadal, Federer was damaging to our volume,” says Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, told Covers.

UFC 162

Word on the MMA street was that plenty of fight pundits were siding with Chris Weidman to snap Anderson Silva’s 17-fight unbeaten streak and take the middleweight title at UFC 162 in Las Vegas this past Saturday.

But, despite that growing buzz, most thought Silva would pull out the win – one way or the other – like he had in so many previous bouts. Weidman, still a relative newcomer, closed at +200 with the reigning champ coming back at -250.

Weidman made the most of his title shot, making Silva pay for showboating with a stiff straight left hand that dropped the champ to the mat in the second round. Weidman pursued with a couple shots on the ground before the ref jumped in. Weidman via KO paid out at +800 and Weidman winning the second round was a tasty +950.

“Referees always tell fighters, ‘protect yourself at all times’,” Aron Black of Bet365.com. “Well, Mr. Silva thought that playing cute and playing up to the crowd, which he’s normally good at, can be very costly. Getting caught whilst pretending to be hurt and then jumped on for a ref stoppage is not how he would like to be remembered, but the odds said that the loss wasn’t such a big shock.”

Houston Astros

The Astros are just 2-5 so far in July but one of those wins came as a hefty +288 moneyline underdog at rival Texas this weekend. Houston was matched up against Rangers ace Yu Darvish, with Texas coming back as a -320 favorite.

The Astros chased Darvish with five runs through six innings and added another four runs in the seventh and eighth to secure a 9-5 stunner, getting a big day from their bats. Houston hit a three-run and two two-run homers in the victory.

“What was even a bigger decision for us was the runline, where the Rangers opened -1.5 (-140) and closed -1.5 (-170), a huge 30-cent move for a baseball runline,” says Stewart.

CFL Week 2

Underdogs are just 2-6 ATS through the first two weeks of the CFL season. Those two winners, however, were touchdown underdogs in their second games of the season.

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers defeated the Montreal Alouettes by the very-Canadian score of 19-11 - healthy amount of rouges - as 7-point pups Thursday. Edmonton rounded out the Week 2 slate with a 30-20 upset at Hamilton, also getting a TD from bookmakers Sunday.

British Grand Prix

Sebastian Vettel was cruising to victory on Lap 42 at the British Grand Prix on June 30. He opened at +110 and was bet all the way up to -175 before the race.

His live betting odds spiked after Lewis Hamilton and others had tire troubles on the Silverstone Circuit, making Vettel a -1,000 favorite with 12 laps remaining. That’s when a gearbox failure in his Red Bull racer forced him out of the race, leaving Mercedes driver Nico Rosberg to top the podium.

“Considering (Vettel’s) position and odds at the time, it was quite an upset for him to not win the race,” says Black. “With a -1000 price tag, the field was effectively +650 against him.”

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Rays Monday and likes the Rays again Tuesday.

The deficit is 846 sirignanos.

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Vic Monte Sports

PRIVATE PLAY GAME OF THE MONTH - San Francisco Giants -1.30

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Teheran is 2-1, 1.93 in his last four starts.
-- Chacin is 5-0, 2.10 in his last five starts.
-- Gee is 4-1, 2.66 in his last seven starts.

-- Cole is 4-1, 3.94 in five starts; Pirates scored 33 runs in those five games.
-- Wainwright is 4-2, 2.35 in his last seven starts. Norris is 1-0, 1.29 in his last two outings.
-- Wood has a 2.45 RA in his last three starts.

-- Sabathia is 5-2, 4.21 in his last seven starts.
-- Archer is 1-0, 3.18 in his last three starts.
-- Britton is 1-0, 2.84 in his last two starts. Perez is 2-0, 0.95 in his last three starts.
-- Verlander is 1-0, 1.80 in his last couple starts.


Cold pitchers
-- Hamels is 1-2, 4.85 in his last four starts. Jordan is 0-1, 4.50 in his first two MLB starts.
-- Alvarez allowed three runs in five IP in his first '13 start.
-- Cingrani is 1-0, 4.23 in his last five starts; he's walked ten batters in his last 9.2 IP. Peralta is 1-2, 4.76 in his last four starts.
-- First Dodger start for Nolasco (2-2, 4.80 in last five starts). Arizona lost four of last five Kennedy starts (0-0, 3.42 last four).
-- Stults is 0-2, 5.91 in his last four starts.
-- Zito is 0-3, 5.51 in his last six starts.

-- Straily is 0-0, 7.20 in his last three road starts.
-- Blanton is 1-1, 5.40 in his last five starts.

-- Shields has a 6.48 RA in his last three starts.
-- Gibson is 1-1, 7.94 in his first two MLB starts.
-- Quintana is 0-0, 4.25 in his last seven starts (Sox 3-4).
-- Jimenez has a 4.71 RA in his last four starts; he failed to finish sixth inning in his last six outings. Johnson is 1-1, 9.42 in his last three starts.
-- Iwakuma is 0-3, 5.54 in his last four starts. Webster is 1-2, 7.88 in his five.


Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Jordan 1-2; Hamels 3-18
-- Teheran 7-16; Alvarez 1-1
-- Cingrani 1-8; Peralta 4-18
-- Nolasco 5-17; Kennedy 6-16
-- Chacin 2-16; Stults 4-18
-- Gee 4-17; Zito 6-17

-- Norris 5-18; Wainwright 4-18
-- Straily 2-12; Cole 1-5
-- Blanton 6-17; Wood 1-17

-- Perez 2-4; Britton 1-5
-- Shields 8-18; Sabathia 5-18
-- Quintana 6-17; Verlander 4-18
-- Johnson 1-10; Jimenez 5-17
-- Gibson 1-2; Archer 2-7
-- Webster 3-5; Iwakuma 5-18


Totals
-- Eight of last eleven Philly games went over the total.
-- Over is 6-1-2 in last nine Atlanta games.
-- Five of last six Cincinnati games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Kennedy starts went over the total.
-- Nine of last twelve Colorado games stayed under.
-- Nine of last eleven San Francisco games stayed under; seven of Mets' last nine games went over.

-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Oakland games.
-- Four of last six Cub games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Houston games went over the total.

-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Baltimore games; four of last five Texas games went over.
-- Seven of last nine White Sox games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Kansas City games.
-- Five of last seven Cleveland games went over total.
-- Four of last six Tampa Bay home games stayed under.
-- Seven of last nine Boston games stayed under the total.

Hot teams
-- Washington/Philly both won four of their last five games.
-- Arizona won five of its last six games. Dodgers won seven of their last nine.
-- Mets won ten of their last fourteen road games.

-- A's won nine of their last twelve games.
-- Angels won 10 of their last 12 games. Cubs won six of their last nine.
-- Cardinals won four of their last five games.

-- Rangers won four of their last five games.
-- Tigers won six of their last seven games.
-- Bronx won six of its last eight games.
-- Tampa Bay won nine of its last ten games.
-- Mariners won five of their last seven games.


Cold teams
-- Miami lost its last four games, scoring a total of eight runs. Braves lost four of their last six games.
-- Milwaukee is 2-8 in game following its last ten wins. Reds lost five of their last six away games.
-- San Diego lost its last ten games, outscored 59-25. Colorado lost six of its last eight games.
-- Giants lost 12 of their last 14 games.

-- Pirates lost five of their last seven games.
-- Astros lost eight of their last ten games.

-- Orioles lost four of their last five games.
-- Royals are 1-7 in game following their last eight wins.
-- White Sox lost ten of their last twelve games.
-- Indians lost five of their last six games. Toronto lost four of last six.
-- Twins lost eight of their last nine games.
-- Boston lost its last three games, allowing 20 runs.

Umpires
-- Wsh-Phil-- Three of last four Carapazza games stayed under.
-- Atl-Mia-- Six of last nine Carlson games went over the total.
-- Cin-Mil-- Underdogs are 7-5 (+$393) in last 12 TWelke games.
-- LA-Az-- Favorites won last six Hudson games.
-- Col-SD-- Nine of last ten Guccione games went over total.
-- NY-SF-- 12 of last 15 Miller games stayed under total.

-- A's-Pitt-- Home side won seven of last ten Bell games, as favorites won his last four games behind the plate.
-- LAA-Chi-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Cooper games.

-- Tex-Blt-- Home team won eight of last nine Culbreth games.
-- KC-NY-- Last seven Hernandez games went over the total.
-- Min-TB-- Seven of last nine Wendelstedt games stayed under.
-- Bos-Sea-- Last three Joyce games went over the total.

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bookiemonsters

pod arizona over 8.5

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Baseball Crusher
Pittsburgh Pirates -114 over Oakland A's
(System Record: 48-6, lost last game)
Overall Record: 48-52-1

Soccer Crusher
Limerick + Bray Wanderers UNDER 3
This match is happening in Ireland
(System Record: 424-15, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 424-364-56

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Today's MLB Picks

Kansas City at NY Yankees

The Yankees look to build on their 5-0 record in C.C. Sabathia's last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. New York is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-145). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, JULY 9 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Washington at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Jordan) 16.733; Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.802 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-150); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (+130); Under

Game 953-954: Atlanta at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Teheran) 16.478; Miami (Alvarez) 15.086 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-165); 8 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-165); Over

Game 955-956: Cincinnati at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cingrani) 14.739; Milwaukee (Peralta) 15.749 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-150); 9 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+130); Under

Game 957-958: Houston at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Norris) 13.763; St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.097 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-265); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-265); Over

Game 959-960: LA Dodgers at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Nolasco) 16.428; Arizona (Kennedy) 14.875 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Arizona (-115); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-105); Under

Game 961-962: Colorado at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chacin) 12.363; San Diego (Stults) 13.893 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: San Diego (-135); 7 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-135); Over

Game 963-964: NY Mets at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 13.899; San Francisco (Zito) 14.800 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-125); Over

Game 965-966: Texas at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Perez) 15.796; Baltimore (Britton) 14.942 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Baltimore (-125); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Texas (+105); Under

Game 967-968: Kansas City at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Shields) 14.257; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.804 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-145); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-145); Under

Game 969-970: Chicago White Sox at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Quintana) 16.314; Detroit (Verlander) 15.778 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Detroit (-240); 8 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+200); Over

Game 971-972: Toronto at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Johnson) 14.902; Cleveland (Jimenez) 13.830 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-115); 9 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-105); Over

Game 973-974: Minnesota at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Gibson) 13.695; Tampa Bay (Archer) 16.460 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 8 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-170); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-170); Under

Game 975-976: Boston at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Webster) 16.605; Seattle (Iwakuma) 15.786 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Seattle (-135); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (+115); Over

Game 977-978: Oakland at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Straily) 16.195; Pittsburgh (Cole) 17.580 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-120); Under

Game 979-980: LA Angels at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Blanton) 16.301; Cubs (Wood) 15.349 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 8 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120); N/A

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1059-793 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner TUES Rockies + 110

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Tuesday

Tampa Bay -155

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Joe Wiz

Free Play Tuesday Cincinnati/Milwaukee Over 8

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SuperSportsGroup MLB - 7/9

LAA v. Chicago 8:05pm
PICK: Cubs ML +105 Game

Colorado v. San Diego 10:10pm
PICK: Rockies ML +115 Game