7-11-13

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Roughriders at Argos: What bettors need to know

Saskatchewan Roughriders at Toronto Argonauts (-1.5, 53)

After two weeks of regular-season action, the Saskatchewan Roughriders are the only team in the CFL without a loss. The Roughriders look to extend their hot start Thursday when they visit the defending Grey Cup champion Toronto Argonauts. After winning their home opener, the Argonauts dropped a road decision to the BC Lions in Week 2 and will need to recover quickly if they hope to contain Saskatchewan’s potent offense.

The Roughriders lead the league with 75 points through two weeks - 10 more than the second-place Calgary Stampeders, who lost 36-21 at Saskatchewan in Week 2. Saskatchewan’s defense, which has allowed a league-low 39 points, held Calgary running back Jon Cornish to 50 yards on eight carries. Those are concerning numbers for Toronto, especially for running back Chad Kackert, who was limited to 20 yards on eight carries against BC.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, TSN

ABOUT THE ROUGHRIDERS (2-0): RB Kory Sheets leads the league with 264 rushing yards and 292 total yards from scrimmage. Sheets, who ran for 133 yards and one touchdown against Calgary, is the catalyst in Saskatchewan’s offense, attracting the attention of opposing defenses and opening the field for quarterback Darian Durant to connect with slot backs Chris Getzlaf and Weston Dressler. In two games, Getzlaf has already matched his touchdown total from last season (two) and looks poised to eclipse his career mark of 10 set in the 2011 season.

ABOUT THE ARGONAUTS (1-1): QB Ricky Ray is off to an excellent start, completing 71.2 percent of his passes for 583 yards, four touchdowns and a career-high 113 passer rating. Ray’s favourite target - slot back Chad Owens - leads the league with 206 receiving yards. Ray and Owens will need to take advantage of the Roughriders’ mediocre pass defense (601 yards allowed) if Toronto wants to keep pace with Saskatchewan’s potent offense. Linebackers Robert McCune and Marcus Ball are setting the tone on defense with 14 and 12 tackles, respectively, while defensive back Jamie Robinson has 11.

TRENDS:

* The Argonauts are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* The Roughriders are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine road games.
* The under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Toronto.
* The Roughriders are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings in Toronto.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Saskatchewan SB Geroy Simon - the league’s all-time receiving yards leader - has yet to make his debut with the Roughriders after missing the first two games with a leg injury. He remains day-to-day.

2. Owens, named CFL's Most Outstanding Player last year after setting a professional football record in total yards, has 434 combined yards to start this season.

3. Veteran Argonauts K Noel Prefontaine performed admirably in his season debut replacing the injured Swayze Waters in Week 2, finishing 3-for-3 in field goal attempts. Prefontaine has recorded 1,558 points in his CFL career.

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Today's CFL Picks

Saskatchewan at Toronto

The Argonauts look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 home games. Toronto is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Argonauts favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-1 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

THURSDAY, JULY 11 Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST (7/10)

Game 121-122: Saskatchewan at Toronto (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 113.557; Toronto 117.061 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 3 1/2; 58 Vegas Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 53 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-1 1/2); Over

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Giants burning bettors and dropping in money rankings

It's official: The All-Star break can't get here soon enough for the San Francisco Giants and their anemic offense.

The Giants lost (again) to the New York Mets by a score of 7-2 Wednesday. The loss is San Fran's fourth in a row and the first time they've been swept by the Mets at home since 1994. The Giants have also dropped 14 of their last 16 games overall and sit in the basement of the N.L. West.

San Francisco just can't get runners across the plate and have had trouble doing so since June 23. After going 1-for-2 with runners in scoring position Wednesday, the Giants have just 13 hits in their last 102 ABs with RISP since that date.

The awful stretch of play has put the Giants near the basement of the MLB money rankings having burned bettors for -17.24 units on the year.

The Giants will hope the San Diego Padres will cure what ails them as they open a three-game set in San Diego Thursday.

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John Deere Classic Golf Betting Preview & Picks
by Matt Fargo

With the Open Championship on deck next week, the PGA Tour takes a hit as players are either resting or playing over in Europe.

The Open Championship is the one major where players are not usually playing the prior week due to the significant travel time. Players not already in the Open Championship still have a shot to play as one place has been reserved for the leading player, not already exempt, finishing in the Top 5 at the John Deere Classic.

The John Deere Classic has been a mainstay on tour since 1972 and, even though this is the 43rd anniversary, the tournament has gone through eight name changes and three courses.

This is just the 15th year that the TPC at Deere Run has hosted the event which obviously coincides with the sponsor. The course is one of the easiest on the schedule, ranked 42nd out of 49 courses in difficulty. One of the reasons for that is, unlike other tracks, this one has not been lengthened much. Only 75 yards has been added since its inception in 2000. Also, the course has only three water hazards throughout.

With the course being easy, the scores are always very low. The winners have carded -20, -22, -26, -20, -16, -18 and -19 the last seven years and no winner has ever finished worse than -16. And that has been with a very light field.

There was a 59 scored by Paul Goydos in the opening round three years ago, which was just the fourth ever 59 on tour. This year, there are only three players ranked in the Top 20 of the OWGR, those being Louis Oosthuizen (10th), Steve Stricker (11th) and Keegan Bradley (16th).

Stricker (+600) is the favorite this week and for good reason. He won this event three straight years (2009-2011), so his T5 last season was considered a disappointment. He no doubt loves it here and, while he has not played since the U.S. Open, it is hard to disregard his four Top 10s in seven starts. Despite the short odds and limited schedule so far, he has to be played here.

Because Stricker is such a big favorite, we are getting good odds down the list including Ryan Moore (+2,500). It has been feast or famine with him this year. He has six missed cuts in 14 medal play events but also has three Top 10s. This includes a T7 at the Travelers in his last start. Last year, he made his first start at the John Deere in three years and finished T8.

Brendon de Jonge (+3,000) played well last week with a T17 at the Greenbrier and we will include him this week on a course he can take advantage of. He is a birdie machine with 284 of them, good for second on tour, and this is a course that allows a lot of them. He has played well here in the past with a T19 last year and consecutive T7 finishes in 2011 and 2010.

Kyle Stanley (+5,000) will be one of the long-shot picks this week. He has missed the cut in his last two starts but prior to that, he had three Top 10s in six starts so has fared better after a very slow start. He finished one shot behind Stricker in 2011, good for a solo second and finished T19 following a Sunday 66 last year. With a light field in play, he could break out.

Boo Weekley (+5,000) will be the other long shot taken. He is coming off a missed cut at the Greenbrier after taking time off after the U.S. Open. But it needs to be noted that he won the Crown Plaza Invitational at Colonial following a missed cut at the Byron Nelson. Overall, he has four Top 10s in his last 13 starts. He missed the cut here last year but it was not a good year to begin with. He shot a Friday 63 here in 2010.

Recommended tournament win five pack at the John Deere Classic (All for one unit)

Steve Stricker (+600)

Ryan Moore (+2,500)

Brendon de Jonge (+3,000)

Kyle Stanley (+5,000)

Boo Weekley (+5,000)

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Stricker Tries to Dominate John Deere Field Again
by Steve Bennett

John Deere Classic

Tees Off: Thursday, July 11
TPC Deere Run – Silvis, IL

Odds to Win Tournament

Golfer Odds
Steve Stricker 6-to-1
Zach Johnson 12-to-1
Keegan Bradley 20-to-1
Louis Oosthuizen 20-to-1
Ryan Moore 25-to-1
Charley Hoffman 30-to-1
Nick Watney 30-to-1
Jordan Spieth 30-to-1
Brendon de Jonge 30-to-1
John Senden 30-to-1
Scott Stallings 40-to-1
Harris English 40-to-1
Charles Howell III 50-to-1
Gary Woodland 50-to-1
Camilo Villegas 50-to-1
Matt Jones 50-to-1
Boo Weekley 50-to-1
Luke Guthrie 50-to-1
John Rollins 50-to-1
Pat Perez 50-to-1
Kevin Streelman 50-to-1
Kyle Stanley 50-to-1
Morgan Hoffmann 50-to-1
9 golfers 60-to-1
8 golfers 80-to-1
6 golfers 100-to-1
2 golfers 125-to-1
Ryo Ishikawa 200-to-1
FIELD (Any other golfer) 9-to-4

One of the final tune-ups before the British Open in two weeks, Deere Run has hosted an annual shootout; the winning score has been 20-under-par or better each of the past four years. Zach Johnson ended Steve Stricker’s bid for a four-peat last year, beating Troy Matteson in a playoff. With Stricker headlining the field again this year, here’s a look at the Best Bets…

Steve Stricker (6/1): Stricker has dominated Deere Run like no other golfer, three-peating from 2009-11. He was right in the thick of things last year, entering Sunday in second place and getting as close as one stroke from the lead with seven to play before falling to a T5 finish. The semi-retired Stricker hasn’t played since the U.S. Open a month ago, where he finished T8, one of four top-10 finishes in seven starts.

Charley Hoffman (30/1): Hoffman contended here in 2011 (T7) and 2009 (T15), and enters this week as one of the more accomplished names in a weak field. He’s made seven straight cuts, a stretch that has included top-10's at the Byron Nelson and Travelers. He’s sixth on the Tour in top-10's (six) and seventh in park breakers (22.94%).

Zach Johnson (12/1): The defending champion was often in Stricker’s shadow at Deere Run until last year. Johnson went T2 in 2009 and T3 in 2011 before finally getting a win here last year. He fired a final-round 65 to force a playoff with Troy Matteson. Johnson’s 2013 hasn’t been a good one, but his lone top-10, a solo third at Colonial, came a little more than a month ago.

Ryan Moore (25/1): Moore has been tough to figure out of late. In his past six starts, he has three missed cuts, but also three top-13 finishes, including a T7 in his last start, at the Travelers two weeks ago. After a two-year hiatus from the John Deere Classic, he posted a T8 here last year.

John Senden (30/1): It’s been a wildly inconsistent year for Senden, who’s already missed six cuts. But he finished a season-best T15 at the U.S. Open four weeks ago, and his track record at Deere Run is strong. Along with being the site of his only career win (in 2006), Senden finished fourth here a year ago.

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Steve Golf Picks

John Deere Classic

Charley Hoffman: 35 TO 1

Jordan Spieth: 40 TO 1

Russell Knox: 250 TO 1

Zach Johnson: 16 TO 1

Ben Crane: 90 TO 1

Luke Guthrie: 75 TO 1

No head to head.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Giants Wednesday and likes the Tigers Thursday.

The deficit is 879 sirignanos.

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Zimmerman is 4-0, 3.76 in his last six starts.
-- Braves are 8-0 when Hudson starts at home (1-1, 2.81 in last four overall).
-- Jackson is 2-0, 3.09 in his last couple starts.
-- Miley is 1-0, 0.66 in his last two starts.
-- Bumgarner is 4-1, 2.83 in his last five starts.

-- Dickey is 2-0, 0.61 in his last two road starts.
-- Moore is 4-0, 1.40 in his last four starts. Pelfrey is 1-0, 2.19 in his last two starts on foreign soil.
-- Sanchez is 3-1, 2.59 in his last five starts.
-- Gonzalez is 4-1, 2.66 in his last six starts. Wolf won his only '13 start, back on May 22, allowing one run in five IP.

Cold pitchers
-- Kendrick is 0-2, 8.18 in his last couple starts.
-- Latos is 2-2, 4.31 in his last five starts.
-- Westbrook is 1-2, 8.41 in his last four road starts.
-- Gallardo is 1-2, 9.00 in his last four starts.
-- Marquis is 0-2, 7.02 in his last three starts.
-- Capuano lost his last two home starts, allowing 13 runs in 8.2 IP. Pomeranz lost both '13 starts, allowing nine runs in 8.1 IP.

-- MLB debut for Salazar, who is 5-5, 3.08 in 17 minor league starts this year, with 100 strikeouts in 76 IP.
-- Sale is 0-6, 3.65 in his last seven starts; White Sox got shut out in three of the seven games, including the last two.
-- Pettitte is 1-3, 6.03 in his last five starts. Santana is 0-0, 4.74 in his last three starts.
-- Dempster is 1-2, 3.45 in his last five starts. Ramirez was 1-3, 3.36 in eight major league starts LY; he is 3-3, 3.09 in seven AAA starts this season.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Zimmerman 2-19; Kendrick 7-18
-- Latos 7-18; Hudson 3-18
-- Westbrook 3-11; Jackson 6-18
-- Gallardo 4-19; Miley 4-18
-- Bumgarner 1-18; Marquis 5-18
-- Pomeranz 0-2; Capuano 2-9

-- Dickey 5-19; Salazar 0-0
-- Pelfrey 6-15; Moore 6-18
-- Sale 6-17; Sanchez 2-14
-- Santana 8-18; Pettitte 5-15
-- Dempster 6-17; Ramirez 0-0
-- Wolf 0-1; Gonzalez 5-15

Totals
-- Last three Washington games stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight Cincinnati games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven St Louis games went over the total.
-- Last four Milwaukee games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last thirteen San Francisco games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Dodger games stayed under the total.

-- Under is 10-2-1 in last thirteen Toronto road games.
-- Six of last eight Tampa Bay home games stayed under.
-- Seven of last eleven White Sox games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 4-0-2 in last six Bronx games.
-- Seven of last eleven Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Baltimore games.

Hot teams
-- Phillies/Nationals both won five of their last seven games.
-- Cardinals won six of their last seven games. Cubs are 7-4 in their last 11.
-- Dodgers won ten of their last twelve games.

-- Tampa Bay won 11 of its last 12 games.
-- Tigers won seven of their last nine games.
-- Kansas City won five of its last eight games.
-- Red Sox won 11 of their last 15 games.
-- Rangers won five of their last seven games.

Cold teams
-- Reds lost six of their last eight road games. Atlanta is 3-5 in its last eight games overall.
-- Brewers lost six of their last eight games. Arizona lost its last three games, allowing 19 runs.
-- Giants lost 13 of their last 15 games; San Diego lost 11 of last 12.
-- Colorado lost seven of its last ten games.

-- Indians lost six of last eight games; Toronto is 0-6 in game following its last six wins.
-- Twins lost ten of their last eleven games.
-- White Sox lost 11 of their last 14 games.
-- Bronx lost three of its last four games.
-- Mariners lost six of their last eight home games.
-- Orioles lost five of their last seven games.

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Baseball Crusher
Cincinnati Reds +111 over Atlanta Braves
(System Record: 49-6, won last game)
Overall Record: 49-53-1

Soccer Crusher
Panama + Martinique OVER 2
This match is happening in CONCACAF
(System Record: 425-15, won last game)
Overall Record: 425-365-56

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Today's MLB Picks

Cincinnati at Atlanta

The Reds look to build on their 8-1 record in Mat Latos' last 9 starts in Game 1 of a series. Cincinnati is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Reds favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+105). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, JULY 11 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Washington at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Zimmermann) 16.599; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.136 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Washington (-140); 8 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-140); Over

Game 953-954: Cincinnati at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Latos) 16.929; Atlanta (Hudson) 15.875 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 6 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-125); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+105); Under

Game 955-956: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Westbrook) 17.079; Cubs (Jackson) 15.474 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-135); N/A

Game 957-958: Milwaukee at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.960; Arizona (Miley) 13.824 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Arizona (-150); 9 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+130); Under

Game 959-960: San Francisco at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 13.116; San Diego (Marquis) 13.987 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 7 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+120); Over

Game 961-962: Colorado at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Pomeranz) 13.269; LA Dodgers (Capuano) 16.779 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 3 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-160); 8 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-160); Under

Game 963-964: Toronto at Cleveland (12:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Dickey) 14.945; Cleveland (Salazar) 16.186 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Toronto (-130); 9 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+110); Under

Game 965-966: Minnesota at Tampa Bay (12:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Pelfrey) 13.873; Tampa Bay (Moore) 16.282 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-200); 8 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-200); Over

Game 967-968: Chicago White Sox at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Sale) 14.936; Detroit (Sanchez) 16.557 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Detroit (-160); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-160); Over

Game 969-970: Kansas City at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Santana) 16.195; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.366 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-135); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+115); Under

Game 971-972: Boston at Seattle (3:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Dempster) 16.357; Seattle (Ramirez) 14.633 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Boston (-140); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-140); Over

Game 973-974: Texas at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Wolf) 14.816; Baltimore (Gonzalez) 15.923 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Texas (-130); 8 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+110); Under

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WNBA Basketball Picks

Los Angeles at Tulsa

The Shock look to take advantage of a Los Angeles team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 road games. Tulsa is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+7 1/2). Here are all of today's picks

THURSDAY, JULY 11 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 651-652: Minnesota at Indiana (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 118.861; Indiana 110.102 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 9; 144 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 149 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-4 1/2); Under

Game 653-654: Los Angeles at Tulsa (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 113.229; Tulsa 113.665 Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 170 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 7 1/2; 163 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+7 1/2); Over

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1060-794 (58 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner THURS Nationals -145

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Thursday

Blue Jays -135

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Joe Wiz

Free Play Thursday San Francisco/San Diego Under 7