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Today's Free Picks for Jul 11, 2013
Kansas City @ N.Y. YANKEES
Kansas City +114 over N.Y. YANKEES
1:05 PM EST. Andy Pettitte is 41 years old and has spent 143 days on the DL over the last three seasons. The Yanks have won Pettitte’s last two starts but New York scored 15 runs combined in those two games with Pettitte getting tagged for seven runs against in 11.2 innings. His ERA at home this year is 5.48 and his WHIP over his past five starts is 1.56. We’re also seeing Pettitte’s groundball rate dip and line-drive rate increase. Andy Pettitte will go down as one of the best big-game starters ever but his career is winding down, his numbers are getting progressively worse and the Royals own the league’s fourth best BA against southpaws.
Earvin Santana has five wins this season, which is one less than Pettitte’s six wins. Santana is the reason why you don’t buy W/L records. Santana comes in with a skills supported 2.91 ERA. He has elite control, a high groundball rate and a very good xERA of 3.42. Santana is posting the best skills he has shown since 2008: His strikeout rate surge is supported by a 10.6% swinging strike rate and he’s been nothing short of brilliant against right-handed bats. Over his last five starts, Santana is 1-0 with a 2.67 ERA and his chances for success here are far better than Pettitte’s chances. Overlay.
Our Pick
Kansas City +114 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.28)
***
Chicago @ DETROIT
Chicago +142 over DETROIT
1:08 PM EST. Indeed the White Sox are dregs. They are almost untouchable because they lose so often, they rarely hit, they have a cleanup hitter that usually goes 0-4 with 4 K’s and they play with very little desire. However, they always get pumped up to play the Tigers. The South Side scored 11 times in the opener of this series and followed that up with five more last night. They’ll have it tough here against Anibal Sanchez, who will make his second start since coming off the DL but the risk is worth the reward. Sanchez has posted the best strikeout rate and control of his career season-to-date, with 105 K’s and just 24 walks in 87 innings. The one red flag on his profile is a 25% line-drive rate and an average groundball rate of 41%. If the South Side can get a hold of a pitch or two and score a couple of runs, they have a chance to win because Chris Sale is that good.
Sale should never be in this price range. He’s winless in his last six starts, going 0-5, despite having an outstanding BB/K ratio of 57/9 in 43.1 innings. To say he has been extremely unlucky is an understatement because Sale is one of the top three pitchers in the game and keeps getting better. In his past four starts, Sale has an 11.8% swinging strike rate, the third highest in the majors. His 56% groundball rate over that span is also among the top three in the game over a calendar month. Chris Sale is a pure ace that should probably be the All-Star game starter but because he’s pitching for the South Side and has just five wins in 16 games started, we get a bargain price on him. At this price, Sale is as close to being an automatic start as any pitcher in baseball.
Our Pick
Chicago +142 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.84)
***
Milwaukee @ ARIZONA
ARIZONA -1½ +156 over Milwaukee
After a five game winning streak by the D-Backs, the Dodgers came to town and swept them but don’t expect the Brewers to come close to duplicating L.A.’s success. This Milwaukee club is a comedy of errors. They make base-running mistakes almost every game and on the road they have just 15 wins in 42 games. Yovanni Gallardo gets this start and his chances for success at this park are almost zilch. Gallardo’s velocity has declined this season, prompting a corresponding strikeout rate loss. He’s no longer getting swings and misses or fooling hitters within the strike zone. Few pitchers can be successful with a 1.46 WHIP and 29% line-drive rate. Gallardo has also walked 41 batters in 108 innings and has allowed 15 runs over his last three starts covering just 13 frames. That came against the Mets, Washington and against the Cubbies. He now pitches at this hitter's park and you can expect the D-Backs to tee off against him.
Wade Miley won 16 games and posted an ERA of 3.33 in 2012. This year he hasn’t attracted much attention with just five wins in his first 18 starts. Miley’s indicators show that his pedestrian 4.06 ERA is due mainly to an increased walk rate and more home runs yielded. However, there are plenty of signs that he’s about to thrive once again. A jump in groundballs and strikeouts being steady are positive signs. Recent starts show even more groundballs and a decrease in walks. Expected ERA says he's pitched better than that current ERA indicates and it’s worth noting that in his past two home starts the Snakes won them both by scores of 11-1 and 11-5. This one is all about fading the Brewers and Gallardo, a combination that is one of the league’s worst. Snakes get back on track here.
Our Pick
ARIZONA -1½ +156 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.12)
Today's Free Picks for Jul 11, 2013
Kansas City @ N.Y. YANKEESKansas City +114 over N.Y. YANKEES
1:05 PM EST. Andy Pettitte is 41 years old and has spent 143 days on the DL over the last three seasons. The Yanks have won Pettitte’s last two starts but New York scored 15 runs combined in those two games with Pettitte getting tagged for seven runs against in 11.2 innings. His ERA at home this year is 5.48 and his WHIP over his past five starts is 1.56. We’re also seeing Pettitte’s groundball rate dip and line-drive rate increase. Andy Pettitte will go down as one of the best big-game starters ever but his career is winding down, his numbers are getting progressively worse and the Royals own the league’s fourth best BA against southpaws.
Earvin Santana has five wins this season, which is one less than Pettitte’s six wins. Santana is the reason why you don’t buy W/L records. Santana comes in with a skills supported 2.91 ERA. He has elite control, a high groundball rate and a very good xERA of 3.42. Santana is posting the best skills he has shown since 2008: His strikeout rate surge is supported by a 10.6% swinging strike rate and he’s been nothing short of brilliant against right-handed bats. Over his last five starts, Santana is 1-0 with a 2.67 ERA and his chances for success here are far better than Pettitte’s chances. Overlay.
Our Pick
Kansas City +114 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.28)
***
Chicago @ DETROITChicago +142 over DETROIT
1:08 PM EST. Indeed the White Sox are dregs. They are almost untouchable because they lose so often, they rarely hit, they have a cleanup hitter that usually goes 0-4 with 4 K’s and they play with very little desire. However, they always get pumped up to play the Tigers. The South Side scored 11 times in the opener of this series and followed that up with five more last night. They’ll have it tough here against Anibal Sanchez, who will make his second start since coming off the DL but the risk is worth the reward. Sanchez has posted the best strikeout rate and control of his career season-to-date, with 105 K’s and just 24 walks in 87 innings. The one red flag on his profile is a 25% line-drive rate and an average groundball rate of 41%. If the South Side can get a hold of a pitch or two and score a couple of runs, they have a chance to win because Chris Sale is that good.
Sale should never be in this price range. He’s winless in his last six starts, going 0-5, despite having an outstanding BB/K ratio of 57/9 in 43.1 innings. To say he has been extremely unlucky is an understatement because Sale is one of the top three pitchers in the game and keeps getting better. In his past four starts, Sale has an 11.8% swinging strike rate, the third highest in the majors. His 56% groundball rate over that span is also among the top three in the game over a calendar month. Chris Sale is a pure ace that should probably be the All-Star game starter but because he’s pitching for the South Side and has just five wins in 16 games started, we get a bargain price on him. At this price, Sale is as close to being an automatic start as any pitcher in baseball.
Our Pick
Chicago +142 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.84)
***
Milwaukee @ ARIZONAARIZONA -1½ +156 over Milwaukee
After a five game winning streak by the D-Backs, the Dodgers came to town and swept them but don’t expect the Brewers to come close to duplicating L.A.’s success. This Milwaukee club is a comedy of errors. They make base-running mistakes almost every game and on the road they have just 15 wins in 42 games. Yovanni Gallardo gets this start and his chances for success at this park are almost zilch. Gallardo’s velocity has declined this season, prompting a corresponding strikeout rate loss. He’s no longer getting swings and misses or fooling hitters within the strike zone. Few pitchers can be successful with a 1.46 WHIP and 29% line-drive rate. Gallardo has also walked 41 batters in 108 innings and has allowed 15 runs over his last three starts covering just 13 frames. That came against the Mets, Washington and against the Cubbies. He now pitches at this hitter's park and you can expect the D-Backs to tee off against him.
Wade Miley won 16 games and posted an ERA of 3.33 in 2012. This year he hasn’t attracted much attention with just five wins in his first 18 starts. Miley’s indicators show that his pedestrian 4.06 ERA is due mainly to an increased walk rate and more home runs yielded. However, there are plenty of signs that he’s about to thrive once again. A jump in groundballs and strikeouts being steady are positive signs. Recent starts show even more groundballs and a decrease in walks. Expected ERA says he's pitched better than that current ERA indicates and it’s worth noting that in his past two home starts the Snakes won them both by scores of 11-1 and 11-5. This one is all about fading the Brewers and Gallardo, a combination that is one of the league’s worst. Snakes get back on track here.
Our Pick
ARIZONA -1½ +156 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.12)
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